Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

giveitholly · 13-12-2020 11:26PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Formerly known as Swaziland, small nation beside South Africa.

Heard of Swaziland alright,didn't realise it had changed it's name

13-12-2020 11:27PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Tell you what dude, you are thinking about terminally ill children ALL the time!

Fair play to you for always bringing them up regardless of context. I don't know what they'd do without you

Read his post. He said NO ONE will care about Christmas afterwards.

I have highlighted thousands who will.

Seamai · 13-12-2020 11:33PM

RonaVirus wrote: »

I wonder will some people partake in the "socially distanced Christmas".

Wearing masks in your own house, not sharing the gravy boat, shunning granny in the corner, posting it all on social media. Sad.

Nobody puts Granny in a corner!

Arghus · 13-12-2020 11:36PM

El Sueño wrote: »

I think some people are expecting a huge wave of cases and deaths in January. I think at worst it'll be like early October.

Regarding my definition of grim, we've been existing rather than living for 9 months now. I'd class that as grim.

I fully agree with you that life in general for the last nine months has been grim. But there are gradients of grimness too: March was grim and quite scary, October was depressing and dispiriting, to be back looking at lockdown again.
While the year since March has been, on the whole, fair miserable it didn't feel as acutely so at times during the summer and early autumn.

As for grim predictions. I think a situation comparable to October of cases in the region of a thousand or so a day is more than possible. I hope we won't get as far as that, surely it won't be allowed to develop before action is taken... and we may just get lucky or get a bit more time this time around. But I worry that there's a lot of extra factors this time: an already quite high level of cases to begin with, all of the mixing that will no doubt occur over the next 2-3 weeks and a general message fatigue with a lot of people. I think an October level of cases is extremely possible and I think an even higher level is possible.

And while we got through it, late September/October wasn't easy peasy either. It wasn't great in my own experience - every week in work for a period there were people picking it up or getting tested. It was an unnerving. I know five people that got it in those weeks. Three felt relatively fine, another was wiped for a fortnight, the other guy, who has only just returned - a lad in his twenties - was out of work for two months and had other nasty lingering chest infections on account of it. It doesn't sound like something you want to pick up if you can avoid it. I'm not thrilled at the prospect of a re-run of those few weeks.

I hope that today was an anomaly, as opposed to things suddenly kicking into high gear again. The sudden jump in numbers seems strange. I expect numbers to rise, but that's a hell of a leap from one day to another. We should know the craic soon enough.

Deeper Blue · 13-12-2020 11:46PM

Arghus wrote: »

I fully agree with you that life in general for the last nine months has been grim. But there are gradients of grimness too: March was grim and quite scary, October was depressing and dispiriting, to be back looking at lockdown again.
While the year since March has been, on the whole, fair miserable it didn't feel as acutely so at times during the summer and early autumn.

As for grim predictions. I think a situation comparable to October of cases in the region of a thousand or so a day is more than possible. I hope we won't get as far as that, surely it won't be allowed to develop before action is taken... and we may just get lucky or get a bit more time this time around. But I worry that there's a lot of extra factors this time: an already quite high level of cases to begin with, all of the mixing that will no doubt occur over the next 2-3 weeks and a general message fatigue with a lot of people. I think an October level of cases is extremely possible and I think an even higher level is possible.

And while we got through it, late September/October wasn't easy peasy either. It wasn't great in my own experience - every week in work for a period there were people picking it up or getting tested. It was an unnerving. I know five people that got it in those weeks. Three felt relatively fine, another was wiped for a fortnight, the other guy, who has only just returned - a lad in his twenties - was out of work for two months and had other nasty lingering chest infections on account of it. It doesn't sound like something you want to pick up if you can avoid it. I'm not thrilled at the prospect of a re-run of those few weeks.

I hope that today was an anomaly, as opposed to things suddenly kicking into high gear again. The sudden jump in numbers seems strange. I expect numbers to rise, but that's a hell of a leap from one day to another. We should know the craic soon enough.

Completely agree. Don't get me wrong, I consider myself very lucky as I've been able to work throughout the year without issue and nobody I know has been seriously affected healthwise by the whole thing. So as bad as the year has been in my eyes, I'm aware of how much worse it could've been.

As for the rest of your post, I think you're pretty much bang on with everything.

blowitupref · 14-12-2020 12:18AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Cases are on the way up because less pressure is being applied. It will keep going that way faster and faster until suppressive policies are reapplied.

Care to explain why the weekly case number is down from last week.

AutoTuning · 14-12-2020 12:24AM

I think we need to pull ourselves together a bit and look at the positives this Christmas.

It's been bad, but we have managed to pull through this second wave with far fewer deaths and hospitalisations than most of our neighbours in the EU and US.

Christmas will be very strange, but hopefully it will be a one off and one to write in the history books and talk about to the grandchildren in years to come. It's just not realistic to expect Christmas to run perfectly smoothly this year or for someone to snap their fingers and have a return to normality.

My view of it is : make the best of it, but stay safe and don't put older or more vulnerable relatives at risk. Things will just have to be done with a large degree of caution and in a more deliberate and planned way. It's not going to be a normal Christmas and New Years, and just don't expect it to be as you are setting yourself up for disappointment instead of enjoying it for what it is.

manofwisdom · 14-12-2020 12:29AM

sonofenoch wrote: »

Prolly the gob****es who couldn't wait to do in the first 5 mins what they hadn't been allowed do the previous few weeks

The true gob****es are people that believe we had 429 positive cases in the last 24 hours. Its backlogs and a lot of them.

froog · 14-12-2020 12:34AM

manofwisdom wrote: »

The true gob****es are people that believe we had 429 positive cases in the last 24 hours. Its backlogs and a lot of them.

whether they happened yesterday or the day before they still happened.

people need to stop obsessing about backlogs. ridiculous.

podgeandrodge · 14-12-2020 12:34AM

RonaVirus wrote: »

I wonder will some people partake in the "socially distanced Christmas".

Wearing masks in your own house, not sharing the gravy boat, shunning granny in the corner, posting it all on social media. Sad.

Seamai wrote: »

Nobody puts Granny in a corner!

The advice given I believe specifically restricted that to Grandpa.

ACitizenErased · 14-12-2020 12:36AM

froog wrote: »

whether they happened yesterday or the day before they still happened.

people need to stop obsessing about backlogs. ridiculous.

People will stop obsessing over backlogs when people stop obsessing over single day figures. Goes hand in hand.

Wolf359f · 14-12-2020 12:36AM

blowitupref wrote: »

Care to explain why the weekly case number is down from last week.

Last week (or the previous 7 days of the 14 days) included a large backlog of cases that were not reported for the week, so on looks, it may seem like cases this week are down, but at best they would be level.

Until we see the swab figures tomorrow, we don't know. The swab data gives a better idea of the trend as it's no dependent on notified cases etc...

Renjit · 14-12-2020 12:39AM

nannerbenahs wrote: »

This is an interesting read and the links are worth checking out too...

https://pastebin.com/Yw6kmKNS

lmao...where is my tinfoil hat:pac:

manofwisdom · 14-12-2020 12:45AM

froog wrote: »

whether they happened yesterday or the day before they still happened.

people need to stop obsessing about backlogs. ridiculous.

It needs to be pointed out to those obsessing on on daily numbers. The weekly or two weekly numbers are the case loads to focus on.

Always_Running · 14-12-2020 12:53AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Last week (or the previous 7 days of the 14 days) included a large backlog of cases that were not reported for the week, so on looks, it may seem like cases this week are down, but at best they would be level.

Until we see the swab figures tomorrow, we don't know. The swab data gives a better idea of the trend as it's no dependent on notified cases etc...

Won't know today's test number until tomorrow but going on yesterday figures we had 3948 more tests this week than last and to even have weekly number that's level would be good progress this week.

Wolf359f · 14-12-2020 01:01AM

Always_Running wrote: »

Won't know today's test number until tomorrow but going on yesterday figures we had 3948 more tests this week than last and to even have weekly number that's level would be good progress this week.

True, I forgot about testing and positivity rate just as, if not more important.
We all know cases will rise, that's a given. But we're just under 2 weeks to Christmas and week to week cases are flat. So another week of flat numbers would be absolutely great.

Always_Running · 14-12-2020 01:06AM

Wolf359f wrote: »

True, I forgot about testing and positivity rate just as, if not more important.
We all know cases will rise, that's a given. But we're just under 2 weeks to Christmas and week to week cases are flat. So another week of flat numbers would be absolutely great.

Seven day average this day week still under 300 cases per day, the 7 day positivity rate is still below 3%, and last but not least hospital numbers stable will be very welcome news before Christmas.

Wolf359f · 14-12-2020 01:27AM

Always_Running wrote: »

Seven day average this day week still under 300 cases per day, the 7 day positivity rate is still below 3%, and last but not least hospital numbers stable will be very welcome news before Christmas.

True on average cases per day and positivity rate etc...
Hospital figures are still a little high. In the summer we got down to single digits.
We're starting from a higher base number. Then again they lag, so they should keep falling as cases increase. Then when they start increasing, hopefully we're well into January. Maybe with the flu season all but gone, hospital capacity has a lot more headroom.
Christ there's so many variables, I most certainly wouldn't want to be in the position of offering advice to government.

MOR316 · 14-12-2020 01:43AM

Tony Holohan will be slashing Chris Rea's tyres soon

eagle eye · 14-12-2020 01:53AM

The FCCC released a document detailing clinical trials which have taken place using Ivermectin. I was surprised to see that there was one in Spain and one in France.
The below file may need to be downloaded, I downloaded it personally and have uploaded it here.

Goldengirl · 14-12-2020 02:31AM

eagle eye wrote: »

The FCCC released a document detailing clinical trials which have taken place using Ivermectin. I was surprised to see that there was one in Spain and one in France.
The below file may need to be downloaded, I downloaded it personally and have uploaded it here.

I have been reading what you and some others have been posting about Ivermectin for the past couple of days .
A lot of the material you have posted is from Dr Paul Marik who has been including it among other drugs treating patients in some hospital Covid care centres in USA.
I note some of the other studies are in some badly hit countries like Brazil and India .
I am not convinced as you seem to be that it is as useful as he seems to think.
Ivermectin is an anti parasitic agent and while it may have some value in treatment of milder coronavirus affected hospitalised patients in conjunction with steroids and other drugs , it does not appear to have much effect in treatment on it's own standing , and in some of the studies patients suffered severe side effects like erosive esophagitis and gastric bleeding .
The studies done were either very small ( n 16 in 2 ) or larger studies of 346 which did not conclude any difference between Ivermectin combined with other treatments , as compared with the results from the placebo group .

The FCCC is not as it sounds , a regulatory group , but a group set up by Dr Marik to review Covid research and treatments , for use in some of the participating doctors centres , the Front Line Covid 19 Critical Care alliance , FLCCC Alliance .

It is very experimental stuff , not very well regarded by critical care doctors over here ( bit like hydroxychloroquine) but I don't know where your brother works but it's not being trialled here yet .

Moragle · 14-12-2020 05:02AM

Sofa King Great wrote: »

Donegal very high still. I know people keep blaming Derry numbers being high but at what point does it come down Donegal folk not taking the required precautions?

I don't think you understand how much donegal, Derry and tyrone are interlinked. The north is far closer than eg Letterkenny for the border region. Derry is 10 minutes from my house Letterkenny is 25. So we shop in the north, work in the north, go to school in the north.
But the north won't give you a test as a close contact unless you have symptoms. Don't blame donegal people were ****ed by governments north and south.
Might be time to build that wall

brisan · 14-12-2020 07:34AM

fly_agaric wrote: »

I don't see the problem here really, or that it suggests an undue increase of caution if they consider vaccination rates/progress of their programme.

First, they have never based the increase in restrictions on how health service is coping; they have used projections of what is expected to happen to the health service down the road based on current detected case numbers and the growth rate. Waiting until strain appears in the health service (in terms of numbers showing up in hospital gasping for breath getting tough to cope with) to impose restrictions would have been taking a massive risk.

Second, the low levels of the summer seem unachievable at the moment without a change of approach, probably including even more restrictions being brought in as opposed to loosening them. We were until very recently on the Govt.'s "level 5" and despite this there are still 200-300 cases recorded a day I believe. Covid-19 not going down to the levels of the summer when the virus was almost eliminated from the country. Santa is wonderful, but I don't think he will bring Ireland that gift for Christmas.

If the vaccine(s) work (to extent that people who are vaccinated do not get sick regardless of specifics of whether they do/do not contract or spread the virus) then higher case numbers can probably be tolerated once certain sectors of the population have been vaccinated.

As to the bit in bold ,we were in level 5 in name only
With schools open and more businesses open than the last time and a lot of people ignoring the restrictions then it was not a proper level 5

brisan · 14-12-2020 07:50AM

majcos wrote: »

Isolation would have been done if it was possible. A first year nurse would also know that there is a serious lack of isolation rooms in nursing homes and in hospitals. Isolation rooms are always in short supply so that’s far easier said than done.

Please share your statistics if you can show me figures of the number of hospitalised cases of Covid that were acquired in hospital versus came in with Covid from other settings rather than just telling me it is not true with no evidence.

There was not capacity for screening/testing initially in April when people were discharged back to nursing homes. There was not even capacity to test all patients admitted to hospitals and often long delays in the early stages I am referring to in getting results back for seriously ill patients. There were shortages of analyzers, chemicals/enzymes, etc. Testing was started in NVRL and then rolled out to other hospitals with samples being sent to Germany as well. Capacity for testing was overwhelmed which is why many who were symptomatic in community were never tested.

I have very clearly admitted in my post that mistakes were made which you just ignored but that does not mean that I cannot also acknowledge some of the achievements in Ireland. Ireland has also been praised in international press so I am not alone in recognising this.

So because the hospitals could not isolate them they sent them to nursing homes to die .
There was plenty of capacity to isolate in the under utilized private hospitals .
The HSE did not want deaths in the hospitals do sent the old people into nursing homes to die

brisan · 14-12-2020 07:59AM

BurgundyRose wrote: »

That's true. It's not so bad during the year when you're too busy to sit down and watch the TV. It's easy to forget how bad rte is when you're busy. This Christmas is bad though. There was no planning involved for the Christmas TV schedule. They could have planned a better schedule and some good movies to encourage people to stay in with the year that was.

With Netflix and IPTV there are very few movies that can be shown on national TV that the majority of people have not seen
Even my 81YR old mother has Netflix ,Disney and IPTV

brisan · 14-12-2020 08:06AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The median age in Africa is under 20 (compared with 42 in Europe), a virus like this is never going to have the same impact there that it will have elsewhere. It's very depressing but on that continent a significant number of people face daily challenges and worries far bigger than Covid, simple stuff we take for granted like clean water and enough food.

One thing we could learn from Africa is how to successfully roll out a vaccine programme, it's worth looking up the MenAfriVac story. Nearly 11 million people vaccinated in a 10 day period in Burkino Faso.

While here in Ireland we are looking at the guts of a year to vaccinate 3 million people

brisan · 14-12-2020 08:11AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Dublin was fairly hoppin tonight! Honestly more vibrant nightlife than anything I've ever seen in my life before 2019!

You must lead a very sheltered life

average_runner · 14-12-2020 08:14AM

brisan wrote: »

You must lead a very sheltered life

Brother was in s pub on sat night in dublin that doesn't serve food. Said the place was packed. Gardai came in and then left.

A pub in the d14 area

brisan · 14-12-2020 08:30AM

Stheno wrote: »

The police have told both venues they must serve food

Have they told the customers they must eat it
That seems to be the whole point of the story
Food going to waste

brisan · 14-12-2020 08:40AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

To be expected. Measures reduce numbers so reducing measures will increase numbers but we still have a bit of give for Christmas. Lockdown in January again then by the looks of it but we all knew that was happening.

Lockdown was happening in January irrespective of the number of hospitalizations , ICU admissions or cases
Tony signaled that from early on

Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

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