Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

Plumbthedepths · 12-12-2020 07:17PM

BurgundyRose wrote: »

Flicked through the Christmas rte guide and God, its awful. I was able to pick out one movie that I really want to sit down and watch this year - (the greatest showman on Xmas day). I can't see anything else. They could have made more effort to show more movies and some better movies too. Especially with the year that's in it where we are required to go out less and meet less people. Not everyone has sky or Netflix. I wouldnt blame anyone going out and breaking the guidelines of they are relying on rte to keep them entertained this Christmas and new year. Shocking TV schedule and line up for the Christmas.

RTE are consistently awful throughout the year, not just at Christmas. If it weren't for the TV licence and government support RTE would have been consigned to history years ago.

igCorcaigh · 12-12-2020 07:19PM

is_that_so wrote: »

There are a few localities that got to about 50% but any testing has come up with numbers between about 5% and 20%.

Interesting.

It was reported a while back that the death rate due to COVID in certain boroughs of New York was at 0.1%
I think that was back in the Spring wave. Very suggestive of widespread infection there.

ElJeffe · 12-12-2020 07:23PM

polesheep wrote: »

Giving my opinion. It's allowed you know.

Like I said grand, you are guessing and have no source

beggars_bush · 12-12-2020 07:27PM

Amazing how the trolley crisis hasn't happened this year?
Better hand hygene leading to less flu? Or less social interaction?

Who clogs up all the hospital and A&E beds every year?
Is having pubs closed having an effect?
Or those with free medical cards just stayingat home?
Or people just not going to the doctor?

is_that_so · 12-12-2020 07:27PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Interesting.

It was reported a while back that the death rate due to COVID in certain boroughs of New York was at 0.1%
I think that was back in the Spring wave. Very suggestive of widespread infection there.

I think they might have got to 25% or so but that was on the very high end of antibody testing.

growleaves · 12-12-2020 07:29PM

ElJeffe wrote: »

Like I said grand, you are guessing and have no source

He is offering an alternative hypothesis, not a peer reviewed study proving that 19-24 year olds have antibodies.

When do we get the studies - using repeated empirical testing, control groups etc. - which could give substance to NPHET's theory of causality?

giveitholly · 12-12-2020 07:32PM

beggars_bush wrote: »

Amazing how the trolley crisis hasn't happened this year?
Better hand hygene leading to less flu? Or less social interaction?

Who clogs up all the hospital and A&E beds every year?
Is having pubs closed having an effect?
Or those with free medical cards just stayingat home?
Or people just not going to the doctor?

Reckon the medical card holders staying at home would be contributing a good bit,plus as you said less flu because of hand hygiene and social distancing

rodders999 · 12-12-2020 07:37PM

Buddy of mine is on a work night out tonight so the group Snapchat is on fire. If what’s going on in the pub he’s currently in (it’s like covid never happened) is being replicated across the country then January is going to be incredibly grim.

DebDynamite · 12-12-2020 07:41PM

rodders999 wrote: »

Buddy of mine is on a work night out tonight so the group Snapchat is on fire. If what’s going on in the pub he’s currently in (it’s like covid never happened) is being replicated across the country then January is going to be incredibly grim.

What exactly is happening? Are people just standing around, not sat at tables? Ordering from the bar?

polesheep · 12-12-2020 07:42PM

ElJeffe wrote: »

Like I said grand, you are guessing and have no source

So every time you post, you state a fact and have never posted your opinion. I think boards should reward you with a medal... If true.

BurgundyRose · 12-12-2020 07:44PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

RTE are consistently awful throughout the year, not just at Christmas. If it weren't for the TV licence and government support RTE would have been consigned to history years ago.

That's true. It's not so bad during the year when you're too busy to sit down and watch the TV. It's easy to forget how bad rte is when you're busy. This Christmas is bad though. There was no planning involved for the Christmas TV schedule. They could have planned a better schedule and some good movies to encourage people to stay in with the year that was.

Widdensushi · 12-12-2020 07:47PM

growleaves wrote: »

He is offering an alternative hypothesis, not a peer reviewed study proving that 19-24 year olds have antibodies.

When do we get the studies - using repeated empirical testing, control groups etc. - which could give substance to NPHET's theory of causality?

That over 70% of any age group in a country with as little covid as Ireland is not an alternative hypothesis, it's waffle.

Arghus · 12-12-2020 07:50PM

growleaves wrote: »

He is offering an alternative hypothesis, not a peer reviewed study proving that 19-24 year olds have antibodies.

When do we get the studies - using repeated empirical testing, control groups etc. - which could give substance to NPHET's theory of causality?

Alternative hypothesis AKA alternative facts.

There's zero evidence that most people between the age of 19-24 had Covid. It's a completely laughable assertion.

polesheep · 12-12-2020 07:56PM

Arghus wrote: »

Alternative hypothesis AKA alternative facts.

There's zero evidence that most people between the age of 19-24 had Covid. It's a completely laughable assertion.

No facts claimed. I simply gave my opinion. There is also zero evidence to back up the CMO's claim regarding that cohort. Did you laugh when he said it?

growleaves · 12-12-2020 07:56PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

That over 70% of any age group in a country with as little covid as Ireland is not an alternative hypothesis, it's waffle.

Nope, you don't know for a fact that covid is as sparse in Ireland as you think it is. It's an assumption.

In any case, entertaining unusual and unlikely hypotheses is how scientific breakthroughs are made - not getting offended because a new hypothesis calls into question an assumption.

The consensus bots need to understand that their political support for a scientific theory doesn't rule out other theories from consideration.

polesheep · 12-12-2020 07:57PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

That over 70% of any age group in a country with as little covid as Ireland is not an alternative hypothesis, it's waffle.

You don't know how many people in Ireland have had Covid. No one does. Although that doesn't stop you waffling.

Plumbthedepths · 12-12-2020 07:59PM

polesheep wrote: »

You don't know how many people in Ireland have had Covid. No one does. Although that doesn't stop you waffling.

Very little testing last March , sure they weren't even testing the people they were transferring from the hospital's into Nursing homes.

growleaves · 12-12-2020 08:01PM

Arghus wrote: »

Alternative hypothesis AKA alternative facts.

There's zero evidence that most people between the age of 19-24 had Covid. It's a completely laughable assertion.

Is English your first language?

I didn't say there was any evidence or make any assertions.

Consensus bots need to provide cast-iron proof of their own theories if they are going to get offended by the mere passing mention of other possibilities.

hmmm · 12-12-2020 08:03PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I wonder if there is any country or region in the world where the virus has spread completely throughout the local population, or to the 70% to achieve herd immunity.
I would doubt it though.

Manaus in Brazil (2 million) reached 76% before herd immunity appeared to take effect. Estimated IFR of 0.28% but with a very young population.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/07/science.abe9728

hmmm · 12-12-2020 08:06PM

growleaves wrote: »

Is English your first language?

I didn't say there was any evidence or make any assertions.

This thread will descend into complete chaos if everyone just makes up their own facts or shares their own beliefs based on zero evidence. That's not a "theory", a theory has to be testable and backed up with evidence.

Arghus · 12-12-2020 08:10PM

polesheep wrote: »

No facts claimed. I simply gave my opinion. There is also zero evidence to back up the CMO's claim regarding that cohort. Did you laugh when he said it?

No I didn't laugh because the incidence of people testing postive amongst that cohort was reducing, objectively. That's a hard fact. And the number of contacts being reported on average by that cohort was also reducing. Once again, that is another hard fact. So, no, I didn't laugh at the CMO's opinion because it's a conclusion based on observable real world data.

Wheras you just stated something that is based on absolutely nothing. The only semi-widespread test that was done for the prevalence of antibodies amongst the general population suggested that somewhere 1-5% of the population were exposed during the first wave. And similar surveys in different countries, even ones that had far higher levels of the disease than us, strongly suggest that the vast vast majority of people have not been infected. What you are claiming is your opinion - but it's not actually a plausible opinion.

growleaves · 12-12-2020 08:14PM

hmmm wrote: »

This thread will descend into complete chaos if everyone just makes up their own facts or shares their own beliefs based on zero evidence.

'Makes up their own facts' hmm are you muddying the water deliberately?

You can object to the implausibility of an idea but you can't control the conversation sorry.

The only fact mentioned was the decrease among 19-24 year olds

igCorcaigh · 12-12-2020 08:14PM

hmmm wrote: »

Manaus in Brazil (2 million) reached 76% before herd immunity appeared to take effect. Estimated IFR of 0.28% but with a very young population.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/07/science.abe9728

Interesting! Thanks for that.

I'm still puzzled of how Africa seems to be less hit by this.
Who could have predicted a year ago that US and EU would be the hardest hit by a viral pandemic?

I'm not forgetting South America either.

One for the historians and medics to figure out I guess.

rodders999 · 12-12-2020 08:17PM

DebDynamite wrote: »

What exactly is happening? Are people just standing around, not sat at tables? Ordering from the bar?

Hardly anyone at their tables, people hanging around the bar, 12 of them scrummed together for the obligatory night out group photo, pub heaving.

Arghus · 12-12-2020 08:20PM

growleaves wrote: »

Is English your first language?

I didn't say there was any evidence or make any assertions.

Consensus bots need to provide cast-iron proof of their own theories if they are going to get offended by the mere passing mention of other possibilities.

Give me a break with the faux objectivity act.

Of course a person can make a claim, but equally a person can challenge it.

12-12-2020 08:24PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Interesting! Thanks for that.

I'm still puzzled of how Africa seems to be less hit by this.
Who could have predicted a year ago that US and EU would be the hardest hit by a viral pandemic?

I'm not forgetting South America either.

One for the historians and medics to figure out I guess.

The median age in Africa is under 20 (compared with 42 in Europe), a virus like this is never going to have the same impact there that it will have elsewhere. It's very depressing but on that continent a significant number of people face daily challenges and worries far bigger than Covid, simple stuff we take for granted like clean water and enough food.

One thing we could learn from Africa is how to successfully roll out a vaccine programme, it's worth looking up the MenAfriVac story. Nearly 11 million people vaccinated in a 10 day period in Burkino Faso.

growleaves · 12-12-2020 08:26PM

Arghus wrote: »

Give me a break with the faux objectivity act.

Of course a person can make a claim, but equally a person can challenge it.

I'm not putting on an act. I suppose it may be easier for me to entertain different ways of thinking since I'm so totally opposed to restrictions, but we're all meant to be doing that. No one should be wedded to a theory unless it is totally proven. There are no 'sides' when it comes to these things.

polesheep · 12-12-2020 08:26PM

hmmm wrote: »

This thread will descend into complete chaos if everyone just makes up their own facts or shares their own beliefs based on zero evidence. That's not a "theory", a theory has to be testable and backed up with evidence.

Just to be clear. I didn't make up any facts and the evidence I referred to was the drop in numbers referred to by the CMO.

FintanMcluskey · 12-12-2020 08:30PM

Deleted User wrote: »

The median age in Africa is under 20 (compared with 42 in Europe), a virus like this is never going to have the same impact there that it will have elsewhere. It's very depressing but on that continent a significant number of people face daily challenges and worries far bigger than Covid, simple stuff we take for granted like clean water and enough food.

One thing we could learn from Africa is how to successfully roll out a vaccine programme, it's worth looking up the MenAfriVac story. Nearly 11 million people vaccinated in a 10 day period in Burkino Faso.

Covid has created a paradox.

The worse the healthcare in a nation the less people live into old age and thus less wil be vulnerable to Covid.

Ireland have Europe’s youngest population and only about 650k above the age of 65.

I think Italy have about 13 million citizens over the age of 65.

polesheep · 12-12-2020 08:34PM

Arghus wrote: »

No I didn't laugh because the incidence of people testing postive amongst that cohort was reducing, objectively. That's a hard fact. And the number of contacts being reported on average by that cohort was also reducing. Once again, that is another hard fact. So, no, I didn't laugh at the CMO's opinion because it's a conclusion based on observable real world data.

Wheras you just stated something that is based on absolutely nothing. The only semi-widespread test that was done for the prevalence of antibodies amongst the general population suggested that somewhere 1-5% of the population were exposed during the first wave. And similar surveys in different countries, even ones that had far higher levels of the disease than us, strongly suggest that the vast vast majority of people have not been infected. What you are claiming is your opinion - but it's not actually a plausible opinion.

The CMO's opinion was not based on data that demonstrated that the entire cohort, 18-24, is having less contact. It was based on those who had tested positive, a very small subset of that cohort. What I opined on is the fact that the numbers of positives per 100,000 is dropping, added to an observation that the cohort in question would seem to be mixing freely. Something that might indicate approaching herd immunity among that cohort.

I know that some people on here attribute scientific status to themselves and talk a lot about facts, but the reality is the vast majority of posts on here are merely opinions or personal observations.

Your opinion as to whether my opinion is plausible or not, is just that... opinion.

Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

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