Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

GooglePlus · 12-12-2020 08:41PM

Is it not fairly safe to say that most people of the younger generation haven't had Covid? Sure if most of them had it, surely the transmission alone would have the island immune and our deaths a fair bit higher than they are. Pfizer, we're all good here.

I'm not long out of school and I can tell you that even without Covid-19, a huge portion of us had no interest in house parties or that craic. I'd say for every person into that craic in my school, there was 5 who weren't. Smaller friend groups and keeping to themselves.

There's no way most young people have caught Covid here, that's a mad thing to say. Obviously way more have caught it than recorded but come on now.. Ireland isn't special.

GooglePlus · 12-12-2020 08:43PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Covid has created a paradox.

The worse the healthcare in a nation the less people live into old age and thus less wil be vulnerable to Covid.

Ireland have Europe’s youngest population and only about 650k above the age of 65.

I think Italy have about 13 million citizens over the age of 65.

Their population is 10 times larger than Ireland so they're always going to have more elderly.

And their lifestyle is a hell of a lot better than the extra black pudding their Sheila craic we have here.

Arghus · 12-12-2020 08:55PM

polesheep wrote: »

The CMO's opinion was not based on data that demonstrated that the entire cohort, 18-24, is having less contact. It was based on those who had tested positive, a very small subset of that cohort. What I opined on is the fact that the numbers of positives per 100,000 is dropping, added to an observation that the cohort in question would seem to be mixing freely. Something that might indicate approaching herd immunity among that cohort.

I know that some people on here attribute scientific status to themselves and talk a lot about facts, but the reality is the vast majority of posts on here are merely opinions or personal observations.

Your opinion as to whether my opinion is plausible or not, is just that... opinion.

There's zero evidence to suggest that Covid was rampant enough for the majority of people aged between 18-24 to have already caught it. I'm sorry you are talking absolute nonsense.

Between the results of the seroprevalence study, the eventual reducing numbers of confirmed cases in that age group and their reduced numbers of confirmed contacts - the idea that a falling incidence of the disease can be attributed to "herd immunity" amongst that cohort is not plausible.

You can false equivocate all you like, but your herd immunity theory is worthless.

ACitizenErased · 12-12-2020 08:56PM

I know very little (maybe 3-4?) people who've had COVID (i'm early 20s), I don't know if that's good enough evidence

marno21 · 12-12-2020 08:58PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Their population is 10 times larger than Ireland so they're always going to have more elderly.

And their lifestyle is a hell of a lot better than the extra black pudding their Sheila craic we have here.

Italy’s population is 12 times that of Ireland but their over 65 population is 20 times that of Ireland.

FintanMcluskey · 12-12-2020 08:59PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I know very little (maybe 3-4?) people who've had COVID (i'm early 20s), I don't know if that's good enough evidence

About 1 in 70 have had a positive test since March.

I know of 2 so far

I have about 143 friends just for reference

BeefeaterHat · 12-12-2020 10:15PM

ElJeffe wrote: »

Source?

Any source on the packed pub in Dundalk you mentioned earlier.

Ficheall · 12-12-2020 10:15PM

polesheep wrote: »

The CMO's opinion was not based on data that demonstrated that the entire cohort, 18-24, is having less contact. It was based on those who had tested positive, a very small subset of that cohort. What I opined on is the fact that the numbers of positives per 100,000 is dropping, added to an observation that the cohort in question would seem to be mixing freely

This bit is a little unclear to me. To clarify, are you suggesting a decrease in contacts for the positive cases but no change in the number of contacts for nonpositive cases, despite a higher number of contacts increasing the chance of positivity?

lukas8888 · 12-12-2020 10:27PM

Ficheall wrote: »

This bit is a little unclear to me. To clarify, are you suggesting a decrease in contacts for the positive cases but no change in the number of contacts for nonpositive cases, despite a higher number of contacts increasing the chance of positivity?

That's one hell of a tongue twister.

Always_Running · 12-12-2020 10:36PM

Last seven days

Cases 1856
Tests 79527
Reported deaths 27
In hospital 185

Previous seven days

Cases 2048
Test 75579
Reported deaths 51
In hospital last Saturday 233

bennyineire · 12-12-2020 10:48PM

rodders999 wrote: »

Buddy of mine is on a work night out tonight so the group Snapchat is on fire. If what’s going on in the pub he’s currently in (it’s like covid never happened) is being replicated across the country then January is going to be incredibly grim.

It's not happening outside of Dublin, wait and see. Dublin will be far have the highest numbers again in the new year

dublinman1990 · 12-12-2020 10:53PM

Some sad news here. Country music star Charley Pride has died of Covid-19 complications. He was 86.

https://deadline.com/2020/12/charley-pride-dies-pioneering-black-country-music-star-was-86-1234655569/

RIP

bb1234567 · 12-12-2020 10:59PM

Dublin was fairly hoppin tonight! Honestly more vibrant nightlife than anything I've ever seen in my life before 2019!

polesheep · 12-12-2020 10:59PM

Arghus wrote: »

There's zero evidence to suggest that Covid was rampant enough for the majority of people aged between 18-24 to have already caught it. I'm sorry you are talking absolute nonsense.

Between the results of the seroprevalence study, the eventual reducing numbers of confirmed cases in that age group and their reduced numbers of confirmed contacts - the idea that a falling incidence of the disease can be attributed to "herd immunity" amongst that cohort is not plausible.

You can false equivocate all you like, but your herd immunity theory is worthless.

That study was broad, not specific. Hmm's reference to Manaus is worth noting when you say not plausible. I was really taken aback when I read that. The numbers of Covid positive 18-24 year olds may be well short of herd immunity but, equally, they may not be. The fact is, we are not seeing sufficient science on this. Yes, there may be studies taking place that we will hear about later, but to my mind we are not seeing enough exploration right now. I was speaking with an immunologist just ten minutes ago and where you used the word 'worthless' he said, "well, we just don't know." Unless we investigate we can't know. You seem to think that there are just two ways to see things, I find that way of thinking both frustrating and limiting.

polesheep · 12-12-2020 11:02PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I know very little (maybe 3-4?) people who've had COVID (i'm early 20s), I don't know if that's good enough evidence

Get out to the pub. It's Saturday night and you're in your 20s! Youth is wasted on the youngðŸ˜œ

Jim_Hodge · 12-12-2020 11:03PM

polesheep wrote: »

That study was broad, not specific. Hmm's reference to Manaus is worth noting when you say not plausible. I was really taken aback when I read that. The numbers of Covid positive 18-24 year olds may be well short of herd immunity but, equally, they may not be......

May be. May not be. Likely. Unlikely.

Yet the argument continues.

This thread is just an echo chamber.

bb1234567 · 12-12-2020 11:03PM

polesheep wrote: »

Get out to the pub. It's Saturday night and you're in your 20s! Youth is wasted on the young&#55357;&#56860;

You can enjoy youth outside a pub

Even if he is on his laptop on Saturday as long as he is happy then youth is not wasted on him

polesheep · 12-12-2020 11:05PM

Ficheall wrote: »

This bit is a little unclear to me. To clarify, are you suggesting a decrease in contacts for the positive cases but no change in the number of contacts for nonpositive cases, despite a higher number of contacts increasing the chance of positivity?

I'm saying that we don't know enough. I understand that we're in a pandemic and that there are priorities, but I'm not sure that we are drilling into this enough.

Arghus · 12-12-2020 11:12PM

polesheep wrote: »

That study was broad, not specific. Hmm's reference to Manaus is worth noting when you say not plausible. I was really taken aback when I read that. The numbers of Covid positive 18-24 year olds may be well short of herd immunity but, equally, they may not be. The fact is, we are not seeing sufficient science on this. Yes, there may be studies taking place that we will hear about later, but to my mind we are not seeing enough exploration right now. I was speaking with an immunologist just ten minutes ago and where you used the word 'worthless' he said, "well, we just don't know." Unless we investigate we can't know. You seem to think that there are just two ways to see things, I find that way of thinking both frustrating and limiting.

You should ask your immunologist friend if he thinks it's plausible that herd immunity has been achieved in the 18-24 age group.

polesheep · 12-12-2020 11:12PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

polesheep wrote: »

That study was broad, not specific. Hmm's reference to Manaus is worth noting when you say not plausible. I was really taken aback when I read that. The numbers of Covid positive 18-24 year olds may be well short of herd immunity but, equally, they may not be......

May be. May not be. Likely. Unlikely.

Yet the argument continues.

This thread is just an echo chamber.

It's just people expressing their view and, in some cases, trying to tease things out. I try to keep an open mind and listen to all points of view. I have noticed quite a lot of tribalism on the threads, I don't think that's healthy. I'm not a long-time member. I just signed up for Covid and I'll be gone soon as I think the vaccines will bring it to a close... Thankfully.

polesheep · 12-12-2020 11:13PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

You can enjoy youth outside a pub Even if he is on his laptop on Saturday as long as he is happy then youth is not wasted on him

Agreed bb.

majcos · 12-12-2020 11:15PM

HSE operations report 12/12 as of 8pm

192 Covid cases hospitalised - increase from 187.

31 ICU Covid cases decrease from 34
Ventilated - 16 - decrease from 18.
Available ICU beds 41
2 deaths in ICU last 24 hours

Steve012 · 12-12-2020 11:20PM

majcos wrote: »

HSE operations report 12/12 as of 8pm

192 Covid cases hospitalised - increase from 187.

31 ICU Covid cases decrease from 34
Ventilated - 16 - decrease from 18.
Available ICU beds 41
2 deaths in ICU last 24 hours

Bless their souls

polesheep · 12-12-2020 11:20PM

Arghus wrote: »

You should ask your immunologist friend if he thinks it's plausible that herd immunity has been achieved in the 18-24 age group.

I did and he said, "we just don't know." Which is more or less what you would expect a scientist to say. Now if you 've done a study to show that you do know, I'm sure he'd love to see it.

Ficheall · 12-12-2020 11:24PM

polesheep wrote: »

I'm saying that we don't know enough. I understand that we're in a pandemic and that there are priorities, but I'm not sure that we are drilling into this enough.

Well, sure, we don't know enough, but I was referring to the bit where you said it was likely the nonpositive cases hadn't decreased their contacts while the positive cases had been shown to have decreased* their contacts? Because that would seem to not follow basics of conditional probability. So there is some (limited, granted) data, but you're espousing a contradictory position to what it suggests, based on.. intuition?

*I'm assuming CMO meant "decreased their contacts in general", as opposed to "decreased their contacts after they tested positive", because the latter would hardly be worth remarking upon.

Widdensushi · 12-12-2020 11:24PM

polesheep wrote: »

That study was broad, not specific. Hmm's reference to Manaus is worth noting when you say not plausible. I was really taken aback when I read that. The numbers of Covid positive 18-24 year olds may be well short of herd immunity but, equally, they may not be. The fact is, we are not seeing sufficient science on this. Yes, there may be studies taking place that we will hear about later, but to my mind we are not seeing enough exploration right now. I was speaking with an immunologist just ten minutes ago and where you used the word 'worthless' he said, "well, we just don't know." Unless we investigate we can't know. You seem to think that there are just two ways to see things, I find that way of thinking both frustrating and limiting.

18/24 year olds don't just mix with other 18/24 year olds, for 70% of that age group to have had covid our hospitals would have been overrun many times over, it's ok to say you are wrong rather than making up immunologists to keep digging.

FintanMcluskey · 12-12-2020 11:33PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

18/24 year olds don't just mix with other 18/24 year olds, for 70% of that age group to have had covid our hospitals would have been overrun many times over, it's ok to say you are wrong rather than making up immunologists to keep digging.

What?

18-24 year olds are either asymptotic or not seriously I’ll.

Hospitals would never be overran with cases in that age group

How is this still been debated

polesheep · 12-12-2020 11:34PM

Ficheall wrote: »

Well, sure, we don't know enough, but I was referring to the bit where you said it was likely the nonpositive cases hadn't decreased their contacts while the positive cases had been shown to have decreased* their contacts? Because that would seem to not follow basics of conditional probability. So there is some (limited, granted) data, but you're espousing a contradictory position to what it suggests, based on.. intuition?

*I'm assuming CMO meant "decreased their contacts in general", as opposed to "decreased their contacts after they tested positive", because the latter would hardly be worth remarking upon.

*I assumed that's what he meant and I didn't think he had sufficient evidence to say that.

As you say, it's limited data. I'm frustrated that we don't have more and better data. Also, can we be sure that all contacts are being declared. I don't know. Human nature is what it is. I realise that they have to go on what they are told, but so much of the evidence just seems insufficient. Anyway, I'm off now. Goodnight.

Arghus · 12-12-2020 11:35PM

polesheep wrote: »

I did and he said, "we just don't know." Which is more or less what you would expect a scientist to say. Now if you 've done a study to show that you do know, I'm sure he'd love to see it.

Somebody else has already done a study, I've previously mentioned it:

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/media/pressrel/hse-announces-results-of%C2%A0seroprevalence-study.html

Over 1100 respondents from two different areas of the country, one with high reported incidence, one with low.

polesheep · 12-12-2020 11:36PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

18/24 year olds don't just mix with other 18/24 year olds, for 70% of that age group to have had covid our hospitals would have been overrun many times over, it's ok to say you are wrong rather than making up immunologists to keep digging.

I don't make things up. I'm here for Covid and I'll be gone soon. I think that comment is more a reflection on you.

Covid 19 Part XXIX-85,394 ROI(2,200 deaths) 62,723 NI (1,240 deaths) (26/12) Read OP

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