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Racing Uncertainties
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A few left... No joy with Anthony Brittain's horses
I normally overlook them, not 'just because' ; but cos I don't fancy them..
Backed one today... Came nowhere, and his other horse won the same race
And he's only gone and had another winner since
Purple patch continuing = not likely0 -
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blue whisper was 2nd also in the previous race..
There is that razor alright
Nice to get it too; but the way he/she (whatever) was travelling - compared to the winner eg - and the fact there was an inexperienced 7lb amateur/apprentice on top; I wasn't getting too excited about that one 
Racing site I use not working on this currently; hence not sure if jockey is app. or amateur, nor if Blue Whisper is gelding or filly :pac:0 -
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3/12
Had a look at Wincanton, and here are tomorrow's darts:
All each way
12.45 Kilcara 9/1 . James King is one of the best jockeys in this amateur race. Selection hasn't ran under rules with much soft in the going description; so that could be a worry, or maybe a positive
1.45 Gulshanigans 25/1
2.15 Broadclyst 11/2
2.45 Beltor 13/2 , Neff 5/1
3.15 River of Intrigue 20/1 , Bindon Lane 18/1 . Last one there is a 'punt' for sure (done nothing over hurdles; 2nd run in a chase - first was a Class 2 when pulled up; this is a Class 5, and that's the straw I'm clutching at with bindon Lane) .
I expect most of them to run well, and think Broadclyst has the best chance of winning.
Gluck if yere having a punt0 -
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#Agent Valdez wins.
Was confident Broadclyst was gonna go close; and even moreso when the money came and he ended up favourite. Just as soon as he started to get into it; alas he faded tamely
#That one I put up less than 15mins before the off. I try to put em up well in advance; but what are ya gonna do if you're looking at form while watching racing? Exactly - find a few you like :pac: Especially when after a race or two the results can be checked, and thereby a more accurate going description than the one that was given the night before.
Nothing at all so far from last night's picks, so hopefully out of the four selections from the next two races a winner, or two :P :P can be had 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »3.07 Leicester Torrent Des Mottes 16/1 e/w. Another gamble, so price not great; albeit still appealing, but has a good chance in this with the assistance of 7lb claimer N Brennan on top for the first time.
3rd Not enough hours in the day unfortunately - just seen he was 66/1 and bigger this morn :pac: 0 -
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7.00 Chelmsford Sepahi 50/1 e/w
Bit of a hit and hope this one. Doesn't seem to go well over C & D. Am hoping today will be different, and that the horse can get settled out the back early on (seems to be a lot of pace in this race) from it's high draw; and hopefully will be quick out of the blocks, and if that happens this Molly Presland piloted conveyance just might go close at massive odds.. Stranger things have happened 0 -
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Been a pretty poor run lately - almost a 30pts loss from the recent just shy of 80pts staked. I guess that's to be expected when >60% of selections are in double figures, and the average price is probably 16/1, or bigger.
That being said the thread is still in profit, and hopefully we can get back on the winning thread if a few of these oblige; or hit the crossbar at a big price
6/12
Have had a look at the three meetings across the pond, and picked out a few with decent each way credentials; with a couple of punts thrown in for good measure.
All each way picks.
Kelso
11.55 Grumpy Mcgrumpface 7/1
The favourite is the one to beat I think, but not completely unopposable. Regardless, these are each way picks, and one expects to get beat by a shorter priced one most of the time. 2nd fav has a few question marks imo. Will chance the selection on his first run over hurdles - he was a non runner on Friday at Sedgefield, so maybe today presents a better opportunity.
12.25 Getaway Gerry 22/1
Has ran quite a few times over C & D without winning. He put in a couple of good runs without winning, on soft and good to soft going on two out of those approx 6 attempts. So, he would have to have a bit of a chance. Also, I am not too enthused about those towards the top of the betting.
1.00 Gipsy Lee Rose 18/1
Young and inexperienced, and looks unexposed (has only had four runs in Britain since coming over from Joseph O'Brien). Latest run at Sedgefield (after a break) reads well here in the context of today's race; when she appeared to be staying on over 4fs shorter. That said, staying is a slight concern; but that was a Class 3, and she tackles a Class 4 today with the champ Brian Hughes taking over riding duties from Lucy Alexander; who has been on board for all those 4 British rides. First time cheekpieces as well, which I mainly view as a positive selection/s wise.
1.32 Chroi Old Girl 150/1 , Our Elsie 50/1
Two punts.
2.02 Big Bad Dream 11/2
Shouldn't be far away.
Tico Times 18/1
Bit of a punt this one.
2.45 Mighty Thunder 5/1
Two chase runs - two wins. A third would be good.
3.20 Bob Mahler 6/1
Topweight. Won Class 2 Edinburgh chase over same distance at Musselburgh in February. Tackles a Class 3 today, after his four most recent outings; which were in Class 2s.
Nakadam 25/1
Should be staying on as well as any in this, the bottomweight. Don't know why his price is so big, as he won last time out over the same trip at Hexham in November.
Huntingdon
2.25 Top Notch
Last year's winner.
3.05 Rowland Ward
Third over C & D last month after absence. Has won before on soft. One of the youngest in the race, so open to improvement too I'd venture.
Southwell
1.46 De Bruyne Horse 12/1
Should be some pace in this, and can go close if he can keep tabs on those making the running. Twice a C & D winner.
2.20 Mosakhar 4/1
Has some of the best overall form in this.
Xcelente 7/1
Is capable putting up a very fast time, so on that basis Tim Easterby's three yr old will do as a second selection here; with two places on offer.
2.55 Sezina 11/2
Wasn't far behind the favourite in this last time out, when second over C & D. Is lightly raced and only 3.
3.25 Born To Reason 50/1
Bit of a punt this one.
Grand Pianola 7/1
Has a chance if he can delay his run until as late as possible in this open race, where cases can be made for a few; not least the favourite, which should be the one to beat having won his last two.
Like I said before these are selections at decent prices that can give small punters a run for their money, and in a race or two I might like the fav to win those particular races; but it's hard to find enough darts to fling when concentrating solely on finding winners, and I like to throw a load of darts
It's working so far :pac:
Gluck all, and please gaymbul responsubly :pac:0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »^^^
No prices on offer at Huntingdon ; so none posted above, alas, I'll have to wait till later to do them I suppose...
Called off I think, looks like the Huntingdon meet is abandoned 0 -
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pottokblue wrote: »With thanks Leffe as I had a little e/w nibble on Gipsyleerose 9/1. Tried hard to win but just a little short of the line a little like Feyan in the last at Cork
Ta pottokblue,,
A few hit the post today, like Gipsy - but narys the winner unfortunately
Just the way it goes 0 -
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7/12
A couple I really like today, and one's a punt...
4.05 Wolves Greengage 8/1 e/w
I think 12fs at the course is ideal for this mare. She was staying on well at the course over 2 1/2fs less a couple of runs back. That was in a Class 5 - goes today in a Class 6. Drawn wide in 10 should be ideal for a hold-up performer. Is twice a course winner, and has won over today's trip before at Newcastle.
3.55 Chelmsford Lady Alavesa 22/1 e/w
Another mare, and performs best when held up. Only 8 in this race, so hopefully she won't encounter too much trouble when making a late bid for glory. Has been banging on the door the last twice she ran here (over C & D). I'm confident of a good run today at a juicy price.
Plumpton 2.05 Mon Petit Cheri 150/1 e/w hope
I was scrolling through the racecard, and "The Chase" was on, and just as I was glancing at this one a question about Tony Blair was asked by Bradders. Could be written in stars, and her trainer who is also a female has been among the winners recently, and Paige the jockey has feminine credentials also. This one is a filly, so in the same ballpark as the other two (confident) selections. Stranger things have been known to happen eh?
Gluck Am due 0 -
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Re the P & L for today and yesterday.
Am unable to check account history, so not sure about NRs - what price they were, and when they were declared NRs :mad:
I had to make do with looking at the daily racecard/s (can go backwards re racecards, but not so with the betting )to see what the tissue, or probable sp was.
In the 3.20 at Kelso yesterday (where Nakadam came placed) there were a couple of NRs - 13/2 & 10/1 on racecard.
In Gipsy Lee Rose race 1.00 Kelso (where placed) there was a NR which was 6/1 on racecard.
In Sezina's race 2.55 Southwell (where placed) there was a NR who was one of the outsiders.
On to today (above were on Sunday) in Greengage's race 4.05 Wolves (where placed) there was a NR that was 12/1 in the betting (am able to check the betting on the day of race ).
These would amount to about 1.2 pts total deductions. Am gonna call it 1.5pts.
So for sake of thread integrity I'm gonna update the P & L
Updated P & L +23.2pts0 -
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Pity about Chelmsford being abandoned after only one race - Wasn't watching; I presume it was fog related - as I had high hopes for Lady Alavesa at the prices.
Anyway, on to 8/12
3.08 Fontwell Et Moi Alors 9/2 Win
An open race. This will be his third chase start. Came 2nd over C & D in October of last year in a hurdles race, albeit on good ground. Can go okay on soft, but the combination of soft ground and 3m 2fs could be an issue. Not a massive price, and only 2 places, so only a small win recommended.
3.38 Fontwell Hier Encore 6/1 Win
Carries a big weight here. Does go well at the course with soft in the description. If he's good enough he should win. Again, not a huge price, and I think he'll either win or come nowhere, so win only.
2.17 Uttoxeter Something Rosie 80/1 e/w , Someone You Love 50/1 e/w.
Two each way 'punts' here.. A combination of 1st run in a handicap (both) ; and the ground is my thinking here - going by their sires it appears soft ground should suit. They've had 3 hurdles runs apiece; almost all on good ground, and strictly on the form shown they would have little to no chance, but I'm thinking outside the box on this one with 5 places on offer with some books.
Also, in the same race, and not for stats purposes I think someone's having a giraffe making Just Henny a best priced 7/4 fav. He passed the post in front in a poor race last month at Fontwell where all bar one of the finishers were disqualified. Could be a place lay proposition.
6.15 Southwell Zylan 20/1 e/w
Ran ok for a good portion of the race last time over C & D. Tyler Heard who's a very good 7lb claiming jockey gets the leg up this time. He was on the horse two runs back over 6fs at the course, where the selection was staying on at the end. Races off 78 today, and has won off higher in the past. Has won over 7 before, and came a good 2nd over C & D in a better race in February. A big run would be no surprise, and he's a very nice price imo. I'd make him the bet of the day taking everything into account.
1.55 Wolves Four Mile Bridge 6/1 Win
Yet to win in 22 runs. Hasn't tackled 7fs in quite a while. A piece of form over slightly further in Oct of last year would give him a chance. Not one to have massive confidence in. A reasonable price, and a win or come nowhere proposition I think.
Gluck 0 -
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9/12
12.45 Lingfield Man Of The Sea 6/1 e/w , Porto Ferro 33/1 e/w
I think there will be a lot of pace on in this race with Man of the Sea one of those racing prominently. I feel with his low draw in stall 2 he can go well, and outstay the opposition. Don't think he'll be far away anyway, and makes the most appeal of those towards the top of the market, at an each way price.
Porto Ferro in the same race is more of a hit and hope. I'm hoping she can be staying on at the end, and pass some tired horses, to claim at least a place.
Gluck anyone who follows 0 -
12.25 Hexham Gelboe De Chanay 28/1 e/w
In this race where Bushypark is a red hot favourite at 1/3, there are still a couple of places to play for; and, who knows, the favourite may not even win. Onto the selection - well first and foremost she's owned by JP. Was with Philip Hobbs, and reached a rating of 127 in three outings (races off 110 today) . The last 2 of those races were on heavy, and softish ground over 17 and 16fs (20fs is the distance today). In both those races she wasn't beaten far, and was staying on at their ends. Some viable form there methinks.
Since she left Hobbs to go to Haslam's she's raced 4 times over approx 2 miles on all of those occasions; but, all of them runs were on good ground. Looks like a light under a bushel job thus far, and I think she has her conditions today (ground is soft). A bold bid would be no surprise to this poster. Nonetheless, the jolly is most definitely the one to beat; but having said that, if Ben thinks Gelboe is good enough, then I hope today is the day for the filly.
There are a few pacey sorts in this, and she can race just behind the leaders, or come from further off the pace, as I think she's tactically versatile. Not much more to say, only I hope she romps home 0 -
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Deleted User wrote: »Deleted User wrote: »12.25 Hexham
In this race where Bushypark is a red hot favourite at 1/3, [/QUOTE]
2/11 now
Couldn't resist a not to win bet on fav at 3/1 - a few with chances in this,
Jolly won as he liked
At least it don't count for stats :pac:0 -
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