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Racing Uncertainties

  • 13-11-2020 6:40pm
    #1
    Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

    Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.


    One to start off with.

    Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

    Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

    Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

    I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

    That's all for now.

    Gluck


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Comments

  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    8.15 Wol Carp Kid 18/1

    Each way chance, a big price in a wide open race.


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    A few for tomorrow.

    12.10 Lingfield Rivas Rob Roy 11/2

    Likes to front-run. Races over a mile. Has only ever won at 7fs. Could be vulnerable if trying to make all. So, a WIN bet on the topweight here.


    7.30 Wolverhampton Lottie Marie 14/1

    3yr old filly worth a bet on first run for new trainer Joseph Tuite. Wasn't good enough for Cheveley Park. Might figure here in a Class 5. Each way.

    Also, in same race Shining Aitch @ 4/1. Small win bet. Only 7 runs, and has winning form over a mile.

    A third selection here, and with C & D form is Chinese Whisperer @ 12/1 for Alan King. Only eight runs; first time cheekpieces, and a decent draw in stall 6. Each way.


    1.05 Cheltenham Fingerontheswitch 12/1

    Seems to be a smooth travelling conveyance. Can go close here in a race for non-professional jockeys. Each way.


    2.15 Cheltenham Brelan D'as 18s

    My each way dart here to continue the good runs of Paul Nicholls & JP McManus.

    Happy punting :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,423 ✭✭✭ pottokblue


    Best of luck with thread Jedidiah Enough Grindstone hope you get your firstwinners tomorrow with Brelandas and Lottiemarie...


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    pottokblue wrote: »
    Best of luck with thread Jedidiah Enough Grindstone hope you get your firstwinners tomorrow with Brelandas and Lottiemarie...

    Thanks pottokblue :)

    Hope they win myself.. And them 3 wks or so to go quick so ya can get to blue, red, or green :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,500 ✭✭✭ but1er


    Best of luck with it, keep us updated on winners and losers if ye can


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  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    2 selections yesterday (in two different races). Both e/w, and both out of the money. Zafaranah was drawn wide and was ridden early to no avail, as she ran wide the whole way and weakened to finish 6th.

    Carp Kid 'ran like an an 18/1 shot' and finished 11th.

    I might try and do a update of P & L.

    To keep it simple I will say win bet is 1 pt and an each way bet is 2 pts.

    The intention is to use the biggest price (price at time of post, or SP - whichever is higher) for them P & L figures.

    Am not faced with that dilemma :p so far; unfortunately, as both lost.

    Running Total, Not Including 'Open Bets' is - 4pts


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    3.25 Cheltenham Dagueneau 7/1

    Small each way on this one. Only looked at the race, and saw he was well bigger priced earlier on :(

    I think 21fs is as far as he wants, as well as maybe some cut in the ground.

    Yet to win a Class 3 hurdles' race, and if he was much shorter it would be win only. 7/1 is just about 'fair' imo; hence the each way, and not 'win only' .

    Gluck


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    3.40 Lingfield Tinto 20/1

    2nd in this last year. A hold up performer that has ran over C & D twice since, with no joy. On both occasions he finished 6th from 7 runners; and I am putting that down to small fields, and no luck in running.

    Hasn't done much since then, but at the price, and back to where he ran well last year makes him a hopeful (can't be too confident, as he's out of form, and in a quality race) each way selection.

    Crowley is top jock at Lingfield, and resumes the partnership.


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    2.58 Wetherby Multellie 14/1

    Likes soft ground, and the price is good. Each way.


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    3.33 Wetherby Silver Tassie 11/2

    A 12 year old, but still got ability. Price seems generous based on his last run here. He usually runs a good race at Wetherby on soft. Shouldn't be far away anyway. Win bet here.


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  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    3.17 Uttoxeter Shady Character 25/1

    Each way on a 'hunch' - up in distance, plus first time Cheekpieces. Also don't like the favourite - Darksideoftarnside @ 6/4. Think it's a poor race that won't take much to win.


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    6.30 Wol Banoffee 66/1

    Can give David Evans' 2yr old filly a chance based on last run. Tom Queally on board again for the filly's sixth outing. Maybe he's found the 'key' to her from taking the ride last time. Each way here as usual.


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    2 more at Wolverhampton this evening.

    7.00 Casual Reply 14/1
    Trip should suit. Each way here. The extended mile should be within her compass. Roger Charlton's filly ran 2 respectable races at 8fs; not so much when she tried 10fs and beyond.

    8.30 You're Cool 10/1
    Each way. Low draw; due a win. 5fs races produce inconsistent results. Luke Morris on top.


  • Registered Users Posts: 698 ✭✭✭ charlesanto


    My Small bets for an interest at Wolverhampton

    E/W Trixie
    630 10 Marta Boy 5/1
    700 3 Flying Dragon 5/1
    730 4 Commit No Nuisance 6/1

    WIn Double
    430 9 Lydford 5/2
    800 2 Afraid Of Nothing 7/2

    E/W Double
    530 4 Lawmans Blis 22/1
    600 9 Spark Fury 14/1

    E/W Double
    500 10 Red Gunner 11/1
    830 11 Roundabout Magic 9/1


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    4.30 Wolves Mutamaded 40/1

    Small each way. Has won before at 12fs. First run at Wolverhampton, and down into a Class5 for the first time.


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    5.00 Wol.

    Sands Chorus 15/2 Small win.

    Kingson 7/1 Small Each Way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,568 ✭✭✭ MyStubbleItches


    5.00 Wol.

    Sands Chorus 15/2 Small win.

    Kingson 7/1 Small Each Way.

    Thought it’s 1 pt win, 1 pt ew? What’s a small win and a small ew?


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    Sunday 15th Nov - My selections have been collated (most of them anyway), and I hope to put them up later..

    I may include my opinion/s going ahead re the chances of these. Sometimes I will just say win or each way.

    P & L is judged on level stakes, as one likes to try to see where he's at ongoing; as a judge of form, along with price.

    I mentioned in post 7 on here, that regardless of how tentative or bullish my opinion is; for the sake of P & L a Win is 1pt and Each Way is 2pts.

    If folk can't understand this, then I can't be bothered explaining to them further. No one has to pay any heed to this thread.

    I haven't changed my methodology of picking since I started this thread - same use of form/price/logic/hunches/nice horsie names etc.. And I advise no one to pin their hopes on me making a profit.

    What I try to do here is to pick shots at each way prices, and I usually back over 70 % of them Each Way.

    Not looking good for P & L thus far, and I will throw those figures up later.


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    P & L

    Started off today on - 4 pts

    29 pts invested today less the 2pts on the 1 non runner in 'Fingerontheswitch' (e/w) leaves 27pts done for today.

    5.00 Wol Kingson wins at 8/1 (e/w) with a fifth the odds for the place part returns 11.6pts.

    3.17 Uttox Shady Character places at 40/1 (e/w) at a fifth the odds returns 9pts.

    8.30 Wol You're Cool (done at 10s) places at a fifth also returning 3ts.

    Today Invested 27 - return 23.6pts.

    Loss for today 3.4pts.

    Running invested total: 31pts

    Total P & L -7.4pts


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    Sunday's Picks.

    BUT FIRST.

    All at 1pt for a win recommendation and 2pts for each way recommendations. Any 'exceptions' will be noted.

    Any 'opinions' I give: small win, a little each way, decent e/w bet etc is just for 'filler' , and not necessarily how confident I feel. Most of my bets lose, so I'm reluctant to forward too many 'confident' selections for various reasons.

    This Thread is for me to see how well I can do, and for anybody who wants a few picks to back 'blind' with a Euro win or a few Cents each way for an interest.

    Now, onto the selections :) I have picked quite a few for tomorrow - both win and each way, and haven't the time, alas, to give reasons for the majority of them.

    PUNCHESTOWN
    12.05 Fairly Legal 12/1 e/w
    2.10 Couer Sublime 16/1 e/w
    3.25 Dare To Flare 11/1 e/w

    FONTWELL
    1.00 Republican 2/1 win
    1.30 Neff 7/2 win
    2.05 Gars Bar Dine 9/2 win
    3.15 Gangster 10/1 e/w
    3.50 Haveacuppa 9/4 win / Queen Among Kings 28/1 e/w


    CHELTENHAM
    1.15 Wolf Of Windlesham 9/1 e/w
    1.50 Captain Drake 9/2 win / West Approach 7/2 win
    2.25 Rouge Vif 3/1 win . Soft ground probably not to his liking, but a C & D winner lto.
    #3.00 Proschema 6/1 win. This one is young and progressive, and I likey, so will for thread purposes count as 2 pts win.
    3.35 Fidelio Vallis 4/1 win


    SOUTHWELL
    11.40 Celtic Classic 6/1 e/w / Grimsthorpe Castle 3/1 e/w / Lightning Bug 66/1 e/w (pure 'hunch' this one)
    1.10 Alba Del Sole 14/1 e/w
    2.20 Zylan 8/1 e/w
    2.55 Nellie French 28/1 e/w
    3.30 Darwina 28/1 e/w

    Profit be a nice bonus :pac:

    Gluck to anyone following :)


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,479 ✭✭✭ Chancer3001


    Do you quote any winners?

    There's too many horses for the casual observer to check up IMO.

    Be nice to see if/when you get a few winners.

    Maybe quote the post when they win?


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,285 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ShamoBuc


    With that amount of choices, posters elsewhere would quote the post and put a Smiley icon :) next to an E/W win and a very happy icon :D next to a win.
    Just an idea if it suits you.


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    Do you quote any winners?

    There's too many horses for the casual observer to check up IMO.

    Be nice to see if/when you get a few winners.

    Maybe quote the post when they win?

    I mentioned them/it (one winner yesterday is all) when I did the Profit and Loss update last night..
    ShamoBuc wrote: »
    With that amount of choices, posters elsewhere would quote the post and put a Smiley icon :) next to an E/W win and a very happy icon :D next to a win.
    Just an idea if it suits you.

    :pac: Posters were free to do that anyway, if they want to :)

    Might do it myself today when I get a few winners, or ones that make a profit.. :cool: A long post though for quoting regularly :D

    Thanks for your friendly/constructive input Chancer & ShamoBuc :)


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    6.30 Wol Banoffee 66/1

    Can give David Evans' 2yr old filly a chance based on last run. Tom Queally on board again for the filly's sixth outing. Maybe he's found the 'key' to her from taking the ride last time. Each way here as usual.

    The main one I wanted to quote was this one - It only finished 8th :o

    I couldn't believe when I tuned in to the race a couple of minutes before the off and saw she was 8/1 . I thought - yep an Evans' plunge. Happy days :pac: Also thought "did I back it at 66/1?"

    I figured I was mistaken. I knew I had it backed at a big price - maybe 25s or something, and I checked, and yes indeed I did.

    But it's a sob story :( Horse was travelling well, and looking to get to the front on the rail, but run was checked, and plenty more trouble after :( Who knows what she might have 'found' at the end had she got a clear passage? Most likely would have at least placed, and maybe; well maybe :D

    I don't know if posters or casual observers want to see that :pac:


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    Sunday's Picks.



    FONTWELL
    1.00 Republican 2/1 win
    1.30 Neff 7/2 win
    2.05 Gars Bar Dine 9/2 win
    3.15 Gangster 10/1 e/w
    3.50 Haveacuppa 9/4 win / Queen Among Kings 28/1 e/w

    Also in that 3.15 Morney Wing @ 16/1 is worth a bit each way - only two places, but has a chance at a nice price.. has winning form at Fontwell; likes soft/heavy going, and anything can win an 'attritional' race like this; so might as well aim for a big priced one :)


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    Poor day today.


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    Running P & L - 7.4 pts

    Invested today: 38 pts. Rouge Vif 2.25 Cheltenham NR @ 1pt. 37pts at stake.

    Returns: not much, but here they are:

    12.05 Punchestown Fairly Legal done each way just manages a place coming 5th @ 16/1 at one fifth the odds returns 4.2pts
    2.05 Fontwell Gars Bar Dine at 1pt win obliges; price taken 9/2 returns 5.5pts.
    11.40 Southwell Grimsthorpe Castle done 1pt e/w at 3s places at a fifth the odds returning 1.6 pts.

    Total at play 37pts - returned 11.3pts

    Today's loss - 25.7pts

    Running invested total: 69pts

    Total P & L - 33.1pts


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    Monday

    6.30 Kempton Bird For Life 10/1

    This Mare can be competitive here, and with her usual style of running can be close enough at the end coming from off the pace. A solid each way chance.


  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    A few at Leicester

    12.30 Pepper street 14/1 win

    1.30 Tennewrow 33/1 each way

    3.00 Bandsman 5/1 each way / Waikiki Waves 9/1 each way


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  • Posts: 7,806 ✭✭✭ Jedidiah Enough Grindstone


    If Plumpton gets the go ahead

    3.20 Tzar De L'elfe 11/2 win


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