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Racing Uncertainties

[Deleted User]

I am starting this with the intention of posting selections for Horse Racing.

Nowt is certain in this game. Hence the title.

One to start off with.

Wolverhampton 7.15 Zafaranah

Mrs Barclay's Mare had a return to form last week when 2nd at the course over the extended mile. The horse has won before at this time of year, and is twice a Course and Distance winner off ratings higher than what she's assessed at tonight.

Available to back at 15/2 and bigger, I give it an each way chance here. Drawn 9 of 11 aint ideal, but I had no say in the box allocation.

I wish myself the best of luck with my thread, and hope to provide many winners and big priced placers.

That's all for now.

Gluck

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[Deleted User]

Will do 4th and 5th December now

4/12

Running P & L + 47.1pts

Invested 44pts. Deauville Society 12.35 NR @ 2pts. 42pts in play.

Returns:

Tommy's Oscar 12.00 (done e/w at 3/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place with a 10p rule 4 returning 5.2pts
Dawson City 3.15 (done e/w at 13/2) places at a fifth the odds a place returning 2.3 pts
King of The South 3.10 (done e/w at 9/4) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 4.7pts
Tathmeen 5.15 places at 18/1 at a quarter the odds a place returning 5.5pts
Crownthorpe 5.45 places at 7/1 at a quarter the odds a place returning 2.7pts
Red Jasper 6.45 places at 50/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 11pts

Total at play 42pts - returns 31.4pts

Loss for the day 10.6pts

Running invested total 461pts

Total P & L + 36.5pts

________________________________________________

5/12

Running P & L +36.5pts

Invested 2pts

Returns: none

Today's loss 2pts

Running invested total 463pts

Total P & L + 34.5pts

[Deleted User]

Been a pretty poor run lately - almost a 30pts loss from the recent just shy of 80pts staked. I guess that's to be expected when >60% of selections are in double figures, and the average price is probably 16/1, or bigger.

That being said the thread is still in profit, and hopefully we can get back on the winning thread if a few of these oblige; or hit the crossbar at a big price

6/12

Have had a look at the three meetings across the pond, and picked out a few with decent each way credentials; with a couple of punts thrown in for good measure.

All each way picks.

Kelso

11.55 Grumpy Mcgrumpface 7/1
The favourite is the one to beat I think, but not completely unopposable. Regardless, these are each way picks, and one expects to get beat by a shorter priced one most of the time. 2nd fav has a few question marks imo. Will chance the selection on his first run over hurdles - he was a non runner on Friday at Sedgefield, so maybe today presents a better opportunity.

12.25 Getaway Gerry 22/1
Has ran quite a few times over C & D without winning. He put in a couple of good runs without winning, on soft and good to soft going on two out of those approx 6 attempts. So, he would have to have a bit of a chance. Also, I am not too enthused about those towards the top of the betting.

1.00 Gipsy Lee Rose 18/1
Young and inexperienced, and looks unexposed (has only had four runs in Britain since coming over from Joseph O'Brien). Latest run at Sedgefield (after a break) reads well here in the context of today's race; when she appeared to be staying on over 4fs shorter. That said, staying is a slight concern; but that was a Class 3, and she tackles a Class 4 today with the champ Brian Hughes taking over riding duties from Lucy Alexander; who has been on board for all those 4 British rides. First time cheekpieces as well, which I mainly view as a positive selection/s wise.

1.32 Chroi Old Girl 150/1 , Our Elsie 50/1
Two punts.

2.02 Big Bad Dream 11/2
Shouldn't be far away.
Tico Times 18/1
Bit of a punt this one.

2.45 Mighty Thunder 5/1
Two chase runs - two wins. A third would be good.

3.20 Bob Mahler 6/1
Topweight. Won Class 2 Edinburgh chase over same distance at Musselburgh in February. Tackles a Class 3 today, after his four most recent outings; which were in Class 2s.
Nakadam 25/1
Should be staying on as well as any in this, the bottomweight. Don't know why his price is so big, as he won last time out over the same trip at Hexham in November.

Huntingdon

2.25 Top Notch
Last year's winner.

3.05 Rowland Ward
Third over C & D last month after absence. Has won before on soft. One of the youngest in the race, so open to improvement too I'd venture.

Southwell

1.46 De Bruyne Horse 12/1
Should be some pace in this, and can go close if he can keep tabs on those making the running. Twice a C & D winner.

2.20 Mosakhar 4/1
Has some of the best overall form in this.
Xcelente 7/1
Is capable putting up a very fast time, so on that basis Tim Easterby's three yr old will do as a second selection here; with two places on offer.

2.55 Sezina 11/2
Wasn't far behind the favourite in this last time out, when second over C & D. Is lightly raced and only 3.

3.25 Born To Reason 50/1
Bit of a punt this one.
Grand Pianola 7/1
Has a chance if he can delay his run until as late as possible in this open race, where cases can be made for a few; not least the favourite, which should be the one to beat having won his last two.

Like I said before these are selections at decent prices that can give small punters a run for their money, and in a race or two I might like the fav to win those particular races; but it's hard to find enough darts to fling when concentrating solely on finding winners, and I like to throw a load of darts

It's working so far :pac:

Gluck all, and please gaymbul responsubly :pac:

[Deleted User]

^^^

No prices on offer at Huntingdon

; so none posted above, alas, I'll have to wait till later to do them I suppose...

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

^^^

No prices on offer at Huntingdon ; so none posted above, alas, I'll have to wait till later to do them I suppose...

Called off I think, looks like the Huntingdon meet is abandoned

pottokblue

With thanks Leffe as I had a little e/w nibble on Gipsyleerose 9/1. Tried hard to win but just a little short of the line a little like Feyan in the last at Cork

[Deleted User]

pottokblue wrote: »

With thanks Leffe as I had a little e/w nibble on Gipsyleerose 9/1. Tried hard to win but just a little short of the line a little like Feyan in the last at Cork

Ta pottokblue,,

A few hit the post today, like Gipsy - but narys the winner unfortunately

Just the way it goes

[Deleted User]

Unfortunately a winner wasn't to be had today - a couple came close. Another poor day for the P & L. Will update later.

[Deleted User]

7/12

A couple I really like today, and one's a punt...

4.05 Wolves Greengage 8/1 e/w
I think 12fs at the course is ideal for this mare. She was staying on well at the course over 2 1/2fs less a couple of runs back. That was in a Class 5 - goes today in a Class 6. Drawn wide in 10 should be ideal for a hold-up performer. Is twice a course winner, and has won over today's trip before at Newcastle.

3.55 Chelmsford Lady Alavesa 22/1 e/w
Another mare, and performs best when held up. Only 8 in this race, so hopefully she won't encounter too much trouble when making a late bid for glory. Has been banging on the door the last twice she ran here (over C & D). I'm confident of a good run today at a juicy price.

Plumpton 2.05 Mon Petit Cheri 150/1 e/w hope

I was scrolling through the racecard, and "The Chase" was on, and just as I was glancing at this one a question about Tony Blair was asked by Bradders. Could be written in stars, and her trainer who is also a female has been among the winners recently, and Paige the jockey has feminine credentials also. This one is a filly, so in the same ballpark as the other two (confident) selections. Stranger things have been known to happen eh?

Gluck

Am due

[Deleted User]

^^^

An each way double on the first two above could turn out to be a prudent investment....

[Deleted User]

6/12

Running P & L +34.5pts

Invested 32pts

Returns:

Getaway Gerry 12.25 (done e/w at 22/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 5.5pts
Gipsy Lee Rose 1.00 (done e/w at 18/1) places at a fifth the odds a place returning 4.6pts
Nakadam 3.20 (done e/w at 25/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 6pts
Mosakhar 2.20 places at 6/1 a quarter the odds a place returning 2.5pts
Sezina 2.55 places at 6/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.2pts
Grand Pianola 3.25 (done e/w at 7/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.4pts

Total at play 32pts - returns 23.2pts

Loss for the day 8.8pts

Running invested total 495pts

Total P & L + 25.7pts

____________________________________________

7/12

Running P & L +25.7pts

Invested 6pts. Lady Alavesa 3.55 NR (meeting abd after 1st race) @ 2pts. 4pts at stake.

Returns:

Greengage 4.05 places at 10/1 at a fifth the odds returning 3pts

Total at play 4pts - returns 3pts

Loss for the day 1pt

Running invested total 499pts

Total P & L + 24.7pts

[Deleted User]

Re the P & L for today and yesterday.

Am unable to check account history, so not sure about NRs - what price they were, and when they were declared NRs :mad:

I had to make do with looking at the daily racecard/s (can go backwards re racecards, but not so with the betting

)to see what the tissue, or probable sp was.

In the 3.20 at Kelso yesterday (where Nakadam came placed) there were a couple of NRs - 13/2 & 10/1 on racecard.

In Gipsy Lee Rose race 1.00 Kelso (where placed) there was a NR which was 6/1 on racecard.

In Sezina's race 2.55 Southwell (where placed) there was a NR who was one of the outsiders.

On to today (above were on Sunday) in Greengage's race 4.05 Wolves (where placed) there was a NR that was 12/1 in the betting (am able to check the betting on the day of race ).

These would amount to about 1.2 pts total deductions. Am gonna call it 1.5pts.

So for sake of thread integrity I'm gonna update the P & L

Updated P & L +23.2pts

[Deleted User]

7/12

Running invested total 499pts

Total P & L + 23.2pts

[Deleted User]

Pity about Chelmsford being abandoned after only one race - Wasn't watching; I presume it was fog related - as I had high hopes for Lady Alavesa at the prices.

Anyway, on to 8/12

3.08 Fontwell Et Moi Alors 9/2 Win
An open race. This will be his third chase start. Came 2nd over C & D in October of last year in a hurdles race, albeit on good ground. Can go okay on soft, but the combination of soft ground and 3m 2fs could be an issue. Not a massive price, and only 2 places, so only a small win recommended.

3.38 Fontwell Hier Encore 6/1 Win
Carries a big weight here. Does go well at the course with soft in the description. If he's good enough he should win. Again, not a huge price, and I think he'll either win or come nowhere, so win only.

2.17 Uttoxeter Something Rosie 80/1 e/w , Someone You Love 50/1 e/w.
Two each way 'punts' here.. A combination of 1st run in a handicap (both) ; and the ground is my thinking here - going by their sires it appears soft ground should suit. They've had 3 hurdles runs apiece; almost all on good ground, and strictly on the form shown they would have little to no chance, but I'm thinking outside the box on this one with 5 places on offer with some books.

Also, in the same race, and not for stats purposes I think someone's having a giraffe making Just Henny a best priced 7/4 fav. He passed the post in front in a poor race last month at Fontwell where all bar one of the finishers were disqualified. Could be a place lay proposition.

6.15 Southwell Zylan 20/1 e/w
Ran ok for a good portion of the race last time over C & D. Tyler Heard who's a very good 7lb claiming jockey gets the leg up this time. He was on the horse two runs back over 6fs at the course, where the selection was staying on at the end. Races off 78 today, and has won off higher in the past. Has won over 7 before, and came a good 2nd over C & D in a better race in February. A big run would be no surprise, and he's a very nice price imo. I'd make him the bet of the day taking everything into account.

1.55 Wolves Four Mile Bridge 6/1 Win
Yet to win in 22 runs. Hasn't tackled 7fs in quite a while. A piece of form over slightly further in Oct of last year would give him a chance. Not one to have massive confidence in. A reasonable price, and a win or come nowhere proposition I think.

Gluck

[Deleted User]

8/12

Running P & L + 23.2pts

Invested 9pts

Returns - none

Loss for the day 9pts

Running invested total 508pts

Total P & L + 14.2pts

[Deleted User]

9/12

12.45 Lingfield Man Of The Sea 6/1 e/w , Porto Ferro 33/1 e/w

I think there will be a lot of pace on in this race with Man of the Sea one of those racing prominently. I feel with his low draw in stall 2 he can go well, and outstay the opposition. Don't think he'll be far away anyway, and makes the most appeal of those towards the top of the market, at an each way price.

Porto Ferro in the same race is more of a hit and hope. I'm hoping she can be staying on at the end, and pass some tired horses, to claim at least a place.

Gluck anyone who follows

[Deleted User]

12.25 Hexham Gelboe De Chanay 28/1 e/w

In this race where Bushypark is a red hot favourite at 1/3, there are still a couple of places to play for; and, who knows, the favourite may not even win. Onto the selection - well first and foremost she's owned by JP. Was with Philip Hobbs, and reached a rating of 127 in three outings (races off 110 today) . The last 2 of those races were on heavy, and softish ground over 17 and 16fs (20fs is the distance today). In both those races she wasn't beaten far, and was staying on at their ends. Some viable form there methinks.

Since she left Hobbs to go to Haslam's she's raced 4 times over approx 2 miles on all of those occasions; but, all of them runs were on good ground. Looks like a light under a bushel job thus far, and I think she has her conditions today (ground is soft). A bold bid would be no surprise to this poster. Nonetheless, the jolly is most definitely the one to beat; but having said that, if Ben thinks Gelboe is good enough, then I hope today is the day for the filly.

There are a few pacey sorts in this, and she can race just behind the leaders, or come from further off the pace, as I think she's tactically versatile. Not much more to say, only I hope she romps home

[Deleted User]

A few more at Hexham with e/w claims.

12.55 Hopefull 20/1

2.25 Espoir Moriviere 9/1

2.55 Casimir Du Clos 7/1

Could be a good day today punting

[Deleted User]

2.15 Lingfield Amaretto 12/1 e/w

Last few runs have been over hurdles, and this 5yr old is back on the flat today. With quite a few C & D winners in this race; from his berth in stall 7 I would give him a good chance here, provided he's on song. Over this trip Jim Boyle's horse likes to be close to the pace from out wide. A few up with the pace, and frontrunners in this, so getting a clear passage should be easy enough with most of the three on his outside having a propensity for going forward. With Amaretto's experienced 5lb claiming jockey Rhiain Ingram on top; I can only hope he doesn't cede too much ground by being too far wide for much of the race. He potentially has a few pounds in hand from his last win over a mile 2 at the course. A good each way bet imo, and I hope he has enough left inside the 2 pole to mount a serious challenge.

Happy with today's selections, and am confident of a good run for my money today.

Gluck all

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

12.25 Hexham Gelboe De Chanay 28/1 e/w

In this race where Bushypark is a red hot favourite at 1/3, [/QUOTE]

2/11 now
Couldn't resist a not to win bet on fav at 3/1 - a few with chances in this,

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

12.25 Hexham

In this race where Bushypark is a red hot favourite at 1/3, [/QUOTE]

2/11 now
Couldn't resist a not to win bet on fav at 3/1 - a few with chances in this,

Jolly won as he liked

At least it don't count for stats :pac:

MyStubbleItches

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Deleted User wrote: »

Jolly won as he liked

At least it don't count for stats :pac:

Well done on the place. Why doesn’t your lay bet count for stats? Otherwise you’re just sugar coating and convincing yourself you’re doing better than you are.

[Deleted User]

MyStubbleItches wrote: »

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Well done on the place. Why doesn’t your lay bet count for stats? Otherwise you’re just sugar coating and convincing yourself you’re doing better than you are.

Ta,

Only bets that count for stats are straight win, and each way singles, Any other bets done or not done; if mentioned, are just opinions. No lay bets count. I mention some lay bets from time to time giving my opinion, which doesn't necessarily meet the thread criteria, nor does it go against it,

Purpose of thread is to see If I can turn a profit to level stakes singles 1pt win or 1pt each way.

Secondary purpose is to give a few that folks; if they like, can back blind for small money. I may also chew the cud vis a vis 'lay the fav for a place' , or back w/o jolly , or reverse forecast etc etc..

I recommended an each way double a few posts back; which also didn't count..

Am looking forward to getting a few of them 'ancillary' bets recommendations up, and not include for stats purposes.

Besides, the SP is universal - different books offer different prices on place bets/ short priced favs not to win. Then again some books go 4 a fifth on 12-14 runner handicaps, and some just the 3 a quarter. Makes it very awkward too, as the belief may be that "he's only claiming he got 4 places a fifth just cos his pick came fourth". Plenty won't believe anyway, but I'll still post the stats based on my winners or losers.

Leff

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

A few more at Hexham with e/w claims.

2.25 Espoir Moriviere 9/1

Craig Nichol didn't exactly cover himself in glory there - dunno was he off the bridle 2-3 furlongs out, or was he caught on heels. Looked like he got caught behind one twice in the space of 100/150yds. He then met the last on a bad stride, and that pretty much done for the horse's chances. Thought he should have taken a bit of a pull myself, and put in a short one at the last; in the hope that he had enough horse left to make up the 1 1/2 to 2 lengths that would have cost him.

Still, at least he was trying....

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

2.15 Lingfield Amaretto 12/1 e/w

Last few runs have been over hurdles, and this 5yr old is back on the flat today. With quite a few C & D winners in this race; from his berth in stall 7 I would give him a good chance here, provided he's on song. Over this trip Jim Boyle's horse likes to be close to the pace from out wide. A few up with the pace, and frontrunners in this, so getting a clear passage should be easy enough with most of the three on his outside having a propensity for going forward. With Amaretto's experienced 5lb claiming jockey Rhiain Ingram on top; I can only hope he doesn't cede too much ground by being too far wide for much of the race. He potentially has a few pounds in hand from his last win over a mile 2 at the course. A good each way bet imo, and I hope he has enough left inside the 2 pole to mount a serious challenge.

Happy with today's selections, and am confident of a good run for my money today.

Gluck all

^^^^^^^

Unlike Craig Nichol's ride - that one was pure rancid. Jockey slow out the gates - manages to get within a respectable distance, and when 3-4 fs out when the horse was cruising, not a move from the jockey :mad: Waits until about the 2 pole to urge her charge onwards :rolleyes: Hadn't a chance at that stage...

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

A few more at Hexham with e/w claims.

12.55 Hopefull 20/1

2.25 Espoir Moriviere 9/1

2.55 Casimir Du Clos 7/1

Could be a good day today punting

At last a winner

Very good day all in all with 2 big priced out of 4 placers

[Deleted User]

11.45 Newcastle Donald Dux 7/2 win

Of the top 3 in the betting, this one makes the most appeal.

[Deleted User]

9/12

Running P & L + 14.2pts

Total invested 14pts + 1pt (not really, but someone disputed it, so fk it) = 15pts

Returns:

Man of the Sea 12.45 (done e/w at 6/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.2pts
Porto Ferro 12.45 places at 66/1 at a fifth the odds returning 14.2pts
Gelboe De Chanay 12.25 places at 40/1 a fifth the odds returning 9pts
Espoir Moriviere 2.25 (done e/w at 9/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.8pts
Casimir Du Clos 2.55 (done e/w at 7/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 9.4pts

Total at play 15pts - returns 37.6pts

Profit for the day 22.6pts

Running invested total 523pts

Total P & L + 36.8pts

[Deleted User]

12.07 Taunton Berboru 66/1 e/w

Only 6 go to post here in this selling hurdle; so only 2 places on offer. The top 2 in the betting at close to evens look like filling those spots, so this one is just a pure punt.

[Deleted User]

Taunton 1.42 Numero Uno 40/1 e/w

The top 3 in the betting have a few question marks imo. Something at a big price could well make the frame in this, or even win. So I plumped for this fella, who's only 4, and, looking at his latest 2 runs I can make somewhat of a case at the prices for him in this race today. The trainer has also had more winners at the course since 2010, than the rest of them put together; so there's that too.

[Deleted User]

3.17 Taunton Boagrius 11/2 win

Latest run after an absence was pretty decent. Is a course winner, and Robbie Power is on board for the first time. Has seen some money - was as big as 10s earlier - but still alright at the current prices.