Racing Uncertainties

7.30 Chelmsford Essgee Nics 6/1 win

Last 2 runs over C & D were okay, but from high enough draws. Is drawn lower today. Another one that has seen money today, but still at a fair price. Is current third favourite, and I at least prefer him over the 2 ahead of him in the market.

8.00 Chelmsford Valletta Sunset 10/1 e/w

A few in this that cases can be made for. This one is a bit of value; as I feel on form, and price, that he has solid win and place credentials. Latest run; which was at Lingfield over 2fs shorter, was his first on the AW. I feel he has some scope for improvement. First time blinkers too, and I only view this as a positive, though the pundits generally like to differ - they can't hurt anyway.

1.50 Newcastle Notre Ami 14/1 e/w , Madam Scully 40/1 e/w

Notre Ami is topweight and down in grade, and could be capable of a bold showing.

Madam Scully is the bottomweight, and a big price, but is not out of this imo. Mare has only had 9 outings over hurdles, and her run at Catterick in January could well see her go close here.

Gluck

5.30 delayed - Zahirah win 4/1

6.30 Chel Invincible Larne win

Only 5 in this. Think this fella will be favoured to win here; provided the step up to a Class 4 isn't too high a grade, - has only won 2 Class 5s before - as he's been running well at the course lately. I think he's capable of putting in the fastest time today. Price smaller than I normally put up, but I think he wins today.

5/2 and bigger currently - might wait a bit to see if he goes a bit higher. Still counts for stats tho :pac:

7.00 Chel Global Art 9/2 e/w . Lucky's Dream 12/1 e/w

A trappy affair with only 6 going to post, so I'm going to chance 2 in a race where the topweight and fav Power of States could be vulnerable. Not for stats, but a combi forecast with jolly as well

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Some more each way hopefuls

12.40 Chelt Rowland Ward 16/1
1.15 Chelt Jubilympics 12/1
3.00 Chelt Beau Du Brizais 13/2
3.35 Chelt Agrapart 12/1 Come On Teddy 11/2

5.15 Southwell Free Love 15/2
6.15 Southwell Mostallim 14/1
7.45 Southwell Trulove 22/1

10/12

Running P & L + 36.8pts

Invested 19pts

Returns:

Donald Dux 11.45 (done win at 7/2) wins returning 4.5pts
Madam Scully 1.50 places at 50/1 a fifth the odds returning 11pts
Lucky's Dream 7.00 places at 18/1 a quarter the odds returning 5.5pts

Total at play 19pts - returns 21pts

Profit for the day 2pts

Running invested total 542pts

Total P & L + 38.8pts

3.25 Doncaster Cathal's Star 25/1 e/w , Zafarshan 33/1 e/w , Frau Georgia 22/1 e/w

Also, to add; I'm not liking the fav Bushypark here. Ground supposedly goodish. Races he won impressively recently were on soft and heavy going. That would make him a solid place lay for me at somewhere around 1.25, but I'm not on the exchanges, so won't be doing him myself.

I hope the ground stays the way it currently is described as good to soft, as that would favour my selections.

12.32 Don Casa Tall 10/3 win , Peur De Rien 5/1 win

2.17 Doncaster Doctor Dex 20/1 e/w

2.52 Donc Oh Land Abloom 8/1 win

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already :pac:

Deleted User wrote: »

12.32 Don Casa Tall 10/3 win , Peur De Rien 5/1 win

So close... Thought I had that coming to the last

but1er

Deleted User wrote: »

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already :pac:

raging, all me money on brogan in chelt horse didnt run, didnt get the money back in time!!

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Deleted User wrote: »

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already :pac:

GO ON YA DANCCCCEEEEEERR!!!!!!!!!!!!

Don't listen to em on S TV - Done their best to put everyone off - "don't know why etc.... Back the favourite" :eek: :eek: :eek:


YAAAAAAAAASSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Deleted User wrote: »

2.17 Doncaster Doctor Dex 20/1 e/w

Ran okay - looked like threatening about 4-5fs out; but faded alas in the last 2 1/2fs, or so.... Got a bit of a run though, so there's that.. 'A run for our money' is part of this craic too - won't be collecting, but I don't expect any returns from at least half the selections... Many more to come, and hopefully get a few shouts (albeit muted :pac: - damn apartments and looney neighbours :mad: :P ) in; plus might get a winner again yet...

Come on Baratineur!

Thirteen horse race here in Bangor 2.40; but the 10/11 fav "will take a lot of beating" :pac:

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Third - so close Was ahead jumping the last - good ride, but the odds on jolly just got up; was hoping at least he'd be beat :pac:

Deleted User wrote: »

3.25 Doncaster Cathal's Star 25/1 e/w , Zafarshan 33/1 e/w , Frau Georgia 22/1 e/w

Also, to add; I'm not liking the fav Bushypark here. Ground supposedly goodish. Races he won impressively recently were on soft and heavy going. That would make him a solid place lay for me at somewhere around 1.25, but I'm not on the exchanges, so won't be doing him myself.

I hope the ground stays the way it currently is described as good to soft, as that would favour my selections.

Couldn't have been any more wrong there

Deleted User wrote: »

Some more each way hopefuls

12.40 Chelt Rowland Ward 16/1
1.15 Chelt Jubilympics 12/1
3.00 Chelt Beau Du Brizais 13/2
3.35 Chelt Agrapart 12/1 Come On Teddy 11/2

5.15 Southwell Free Love 15/2
6.15 Southwell Mostallim 14/1
7.45 Southwell Trulove 22/1

A winner And Agrapart comes 4th at a fifth... Not too bad...

11/12

Running P & L + 38.8pts

Invested 33pts. Jubilympics 1.15 NR @ 2pts, Cathal's Star 3.25 NR @ 2pts, 7.45 Trulove NR (meeting abd) @2pts. 27pts in play.

Returns:

Knocknamona 12.55 (done e/w at 20/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 26pts
Baratineur 2.40 places at 5/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2pts
Geography Teacher (done e/w at 10/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 20p rule 4 returning 2.6pts
Come On Teddy 3.35 (done e/w at 11/2) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 8.6pts
Agrapart 3.35 places at 14/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 3.8pts

Total at play 27pts - returns 43pts

Profit for the day 16pts

Running invested total - 569pts

Total P & L + 54.8pts

A few at Wolves each way to keep it going. Quite a few in a couple of races :pac:

4.15 Bruyere 16/1
5.15 Bird For Life 9/1
5.45 Snow Ocean 15/2 , Goddess Of Fire 14/1
7.15 Melodic Charm 9/1 , El Hombre 15/2 , Kapono 20/1
7.45 Storm Over 9/2 , Iconic Knight 11/2 , Sepahi 40/1 , Bombastic 15/2 , Glorious Charmer 28/1
8.15 Heer We Go Again 8/1

At the prices I think Bruyere, and Heer We Go Again are the picks of the bunch. Goddess Of Fire in the 5.45 is the most interesting one; especially if she sees any money.

ref this one for future: 1056rkbrdld

Hopefully can collect on 1 or 3

Gluck

A couple at Donny

12.55 Theatre Legend 9/1 , Shantaluze 22/1

Each way on t'brace; hopefully one wins, and t'other comes placed. Soft ground and following pace could be the key in this ere race

Deleted User wrote: »

A few 4 tomorra

4.15 Southwell Geography Teacher 10/1 e/w
12.55 Bangor Knocknamona 20/1 e/w
2.40 Bangor Baratineur 5/1 e/w

Deleted User wrote: »

Massive plunge on this one. Am rubbin me hands already :pac:

I see Micky's at it again - another Hammond plunge in the 4.45 Wol with Burnage Boy into 14s from 40s... Am not seeing the angle myself - very poor form, and I think it's the jockey's first ever ride.

Was trying to make a case for Al Ozzdi myself, but couldn't.

Had another look, and at a big price I went for AMOR FATI 16/1 e/w. This one is a bit hit and miss, but is a 3 time course winner, and can get involved here with a decent late run. Gina Mangan; who claims 7, takes the ride. Trainer David Evans is in form as well. The combo have had a recent winner with Siavash (who goes in the 5.45 under Charles Bishop this time) last month. Can make a case for a few in this from an each way perspective, but apart from Amor Fati, they are too short imo...

12/12

Running P & L + 54.8pts

Invested 32pts. Melodic Charm 7.15 NR @ 2pts. 30pts in play.

Returns:

Snow Ocean 5.45 (done e/w at 15/2) places at a fifth the odds returning 2.5pts
Kapono 7.15 (done e/w at 20/1) places at a fifth the odds a place with a 5p rule 4 returning 4.8pts
Iconic Knight 7.45 (done e/w at 11/2) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 8.6pts
Storm Over 7.45 places at 5/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 2pts

Total at play 30pts - returns 17.9pts

Loss for the day 12.1pts

Running invested total - 599pts

Total P & L + 42.7pts

2.30 Southwell Dame du Soir 22/1 e/w

Bit of a punt this one. I think the second and third favourites are vulnerable; either owing to the ground, which is soft (Nordica Bleue) , and the trip which may be too short at 2m (Shantung). The selection is mainly a chaser, and, in her few hurdles bids she has only prevailed once. I'm hoping she can take a lead, and at least be still in contention before the taps are turned on.

Not at all confident about this one's chances, but at the prices I can't resist having a bet all the same :P Saying that though, if one or two at the top of the market don't run as well as expected the door could be left open for a bigger priced one to get a place.

A poor day yesterday, and the majority of races I'm not liking the look of for trying to find a few darts. Hopefully the above can at least put up a bold showing. It's her second hurdles outing in a row on the back of her most recent two runs prior to that over the larger obstacles; where she unseated the rider in one, and fell in the other.

Has had 1 win in both chase and hurdles, and they were over 2 miles, so it's interesting that Dame du Soir's latest outing over hurdles was over 2 1/2 miles. Could be the trainer was trying to get her to drop a few pounds to give her a chance in a race like today's, and thus give her confidence if and when she tackles the larger obstacles again.

Her trainer David Bridgwater has a very good strike rate at the course with 13 winners from 62 runners over the past 10 years.

12.55 Southwell Joly Maker 9/2 win , Nobel Leader 11/1 e/w

Think Jonjo's is a massive price at 9/2; although it has drifted from 5/2. On form it has the best chance here no doubt. Am not understanding the drift at all.

Nobel Leader at 11/1 I can't resist going each way on, as he's won at this distance before on soft ground. As well as that; 8 of the 9 horses have ran here before, and the 2 I've gone for are the only ones to have won at Southwell - both with a strike rate of 1 from 3.

Also done a reverse forecast - just sayin....


Gluck