Level 5 lockdown essentially failed

01-12-2020 11:01am #1

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

01-12-2020 11:03am

Well yes, if the level 5 is half arsed. Schools open? Not L5.

antimatterx · 01-12-2020 11:04am

Eh what? It literally reduced the number of daily cases. If it does go back to growing at the rate prior to lockdown, it's now growing from a much smaller base.

average_runner · 01-12-2020 11:06am

Deleted User wrote: »

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

If we don't do lockdown and the virus gets out of control, where do we draw the line?

We opened things up and people took the piss, ie GAA clubs for example.

Its all about attitude, if we have the correct attitude we can open up

scheister · 01-12-2020 11:07am

Deleted User wrote: »

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

I was making this point last night. We are not near where we wanted to be at this point but are still moving forward as planned. I think we will end up in a yoyo of locksdown for Q1 2021 at least. The messaging out of the government has been half arsed since MM took over. Legislation is being passed then guarda are saying they done have powers to enforce. Will be interesting to see case numbers come new but I think the worst is yet to come

average_runner · 01-12-2020 11:09am

Deleted User wrote: »

Well yes, if the level 5 is half arsed. Schools open? Not L5.

Primary schools are not big spreaders. Kids in a school of 600, 6 cases in total and this is Dublin and a location where the virus is higher

Del2005 · 01-12-2020 11:09am

No one will follow level 5 in January. Very few followed the last one. I was in a shop on Saturday and very few people were wearing masks correctly and I've heard public transport is the same

Alll evidence shows that children aren't spreading it. The parents outside the school are a different story and the staggered opening means that some have to wait outside for an hour

01-12-2020 11:12am

average_runner wrote: »

Primary schools are not big spreaders. Kids in a school of 600, 6 cases in total and this is Dublin and a location where the virus is higher

That's very selective figures. How many other than the children? In their families etc. What about the school in cork?

didyoufart? · 01-12-2020 11:12am

Never going to completely eliminate the virus.

Even if we closed the schools as part of level 5 etc. and got down to 50 a day as soon as their back open or we move to level 3 the cases will shoot back up to 1500 or more.

kaahooters · 01-12-2020 11:15am

Bit cynical wrote: »

The vaccines when they come will do a fair bit to keep infections down easing the need for lockdowns.

if people will get vaccinated, thats the next issue.

sydthebeat · 01-12-2020 11:16am

antimatterx wrote: »

Eh what? It literally reduced the number of daily cases. If it does go back to growing at the rate prior to lockdown, it's now growing from a much smaller base.

What do you mean "if"

It's a cast iron guarantee that cases are going to rise back up again. We will be back to 800+ cases by the first week of January.

The question is then, what will the HSE have done to prepare for this rise, seeing as they did the total of SFA during the first lock down... Actually lost nurses from the system rather than increasing.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 01-12-2020 11:19am

kaahooters wrote: »

if people will get vaccinated, thats the next issue.

Dont worry we probably have a year to vaccinate those willing to take the vaccine before we need to worry about the refusers staying away.

atr2002 · 01-12-2020 11:20am

average_runner wrote: »

Primary schools are not big spreaders. Kids in a school of 600, 6 cases in total and this is Dublin and a location where the virus is higher

Adults do a lot more interaction when the schools are open. 35 to 45 yr olds getting infected, the age with small kids in school. See them at the school gates every day, endlessly yapping.

Atlantic Dawn · 01-12-2020 11:25am

What I would love to know is say mid 2021 if we get all healthcare workers and vulnerable people vaccinated can we just then return to normal?

talulon · 01-12-2020 11:26am

Deleted User wrote: »

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

Well, if you look at the incident rate per 100.000 (which I believe that was the intention, not the total number of cases) it's very close to 50 at the moment.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)_20201130_website.pdf

Boggles · 01-12-2020 11:28am

Deleted User wrote: »

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Deleted User wrote: »

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

01-12-2020 11:29am

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

What I would love to know is say mid 2021 if we get all healthcare workers and vulnerable people vaccinated can we just then return to normal?

I hope the answer to this is yes. But I fear otherwise.

Monokne · 01-12-2020 11:30am

I think we should have pre-planned lockdowns going forward, a schedule of sorts. Month at L5, month at L3 type thing. It is going to happen anyway, at least people can plan around it then.

01-12-2020 11:31am

Boggles wrote: »

Cases reduced after 6 weeks. And that is also including counties in level 3+ for weeks beforehand. And still far away from the target.

If level 5 is going to take 3 months to reach its target, then it’s a failed strategy.

Boggles · 01-12-2020 11:32am

Deleted User wrote: »

Cases reduced after 6 weeks. And that is also including counties in level 3+ for weeks beforehand.

If level 5 is going to take 3 months to reach its target, then it’s a failed strategy.

You gave evidence of it working and then on the next line asked where is the evidence. Cases reduced faster than 6 weeks.

AFAIK we are at level 3 hybrid at the moment.

The_Honeybadger · 01-12-2020 11:34am

This lockdown was never going to be as effective as the first one, schools were open and the list of exempt businesses is very different. There are a lot more people out and about and the fear factor is gone, many people are ignoring the rules and socialising in each other’s houses etc. That wasn’t happening back in March / April, or at least not to the same extent. There is also near zero enforcement of travel limits.

Level 5 sounds severe but the measures are fairly light touch in all honesty.

01-12-2020 11:34am

Boggles wrote: »

You gave evidence of it working and then on the next line asked where is the evidence.

AFAIK we are at level 3 at the moment.

It didn’t achieve what it was supposed to though.

I think we can certainly rule out level 5 as a short circuit breaker.

Looks like it would take 3 months to do what NPHET want.

Boggles · 01-12-2020 11:38am

Deleted User wrote: »

It didn’t achieve what it was supposed to though.

30 odd in ICU and 230 in hospital and we are opening the economy for Christmas?

What were the goals you were looking for?

That's not too shabby to be fair.

Italy are back to ICU numbers from March / April and deaths are starting to follow.

A country on this Island has gone into lock down again.

Where would you prefer to be heading into the festive season?

01-12-2020 11:40am

The schools alone condemned Level 5 to failure, people only deluding themselves if they think 600-1000 pupils congregating in the one setting daily wasn't going to have an impact. If you're going to implement the highest level of restrictions, do it properly. And when the unrealistic target of <100 cases per day wasn't achieved, traditional publicans were inevitably going to get it in the neck. Tony Holohan only pouring petrol on the fire, blaming the demon drink as a pledge driver would. One sector sacrificed for another, and unions will always come out on top.

01-12-2020 11:46am

Deleted User wrote: »

Cases reduced after 6 weeks. And that is also including counties in level 3+ for weeks beforehand. And still far away from the target.

If level 5 is going to take 3 months to reach its target, then it’s a failed strategy.

When take account of the fact the people were not even able to get tests in April, I actually worked at least as effectively as the spring lockdown which took almost 6 weeks to get us below 300 cases at a stage when even close contacts couldn't get tested

01-12-2020 11:47am

Deleted User wrote: »

The schools alone condemned Level 5 to failure, people only deluding themselves if they think 600-1000 pupils congregating in the one setting daily wasn't going to have an impact. If you're going to implement the highest level of restrictions, do it properly. And when the unrealistic target of <100 cases per day wasn't achieved, traditional publicans were inevitably going to get it in the neck. Tony Holohan only pouring petrol on the fire, blaming the demon drink as a pledge driver would. One sector sacrificed for another, and unions will always come out on top.

80% reduction in 6 weeks suggests otherwise

didyoufart? · 01-12-2020 11:47am

average_runner wrote: »

Primary schools are not big spreaders. Kids in a school of 600, 6 cases in total and this is Dublin and a location where the virus is higher

And many people family members did this infect and pass onto work colleagues or other family members.

atr2002 · 01-12-2020 11:48am

I was surprised they cited kids mental health as a reason not to close schools.

If they had of extended the Halloween hols a week either side of the break and the same with Christmas, id wager the numbers would plummet, as looking to my previous post, the age profile getting infected being 35 to 45 being parents of primary school kids

_Brian · 01-12-2020 11:49am

Deleted User wrote: »

The goal of the level 5 lockdown was to reduce the cases to about 50 per day so we could reopen.
Unfortunately yesterday we had 300 cases and are nowhere close to 50 a day.

Now of course it did help to an extent. Cases have reduced from about 1000+ to 250 - 300 ish. But we have to consider the social and economic impact on society as well.

Based on what we’ve seen, if we return to level 5 in January, what evidence is there to suggest it will even work?

If we do rise to 1000+ cases a day in Jan, how many months of level 5 would be needed to get back towards 0, which seems to be our goal. Would it even be sustainable?

Do you think cases will remain lower with more social outlets open and more controlled environments?

If months of level 5 is the only solution until everybody is vaccinated, I think we are f*cked.
I predict there will be huge backlash against lockdowns next year.

Thoughts?

We are by far the lowest covid figures across Europe. I’d say that’s a resounding success.
Yea, NEPHET had hoped the figures would have been lower but remember the government watered down their recommendations for political reasons.

It did a good job, we need to minimise the spread now.

General feeling is we will be straight back into a L5 on 6th Jan.

Countries round the world that were being held up as shining examples of what we could be doing are now implementing similar lockdowns to ours now.

talulon · 01-12-2020 11:50am

Deleted User wrote: »

The schools alone condemned Level 5 to failure, people only deluding themselves if they think 600-1000 pupils congregating in the one setting daily wasn't going to have an impact. If you're going to implement the highest level of restrictions, do it properly. And when the unrealistic target of <100 cases per day wasn't achieved, traditional publicans were inevitably going to get it in the neck. Tony Holohan only pouring petrol on the fire, blaming the demon drink as a pledge driver would. One sector sacrificed for another, and unions will always come out on top.

Only 6.31% of the cases come from those kids in school, if you are going to post random data at least spend some time educating yourself.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/COVID-19%20Daily%20epidemiology%20report%20(NPHET)_20201130_website.pdf

Biggest percentage of cases come from people age 15-64.

prunudo · 01-12-2020 11:50am

Its great that the numbers decreased to the level they did considering what was allowed remain open, that in itself is a success.
But the level 5 we just exited was a sham. With so many businesses open I don't believe closing the few remaining retail was really worth it when you factor in the cost of pup and lost revenue to amazon and the like.
House and social gatherings have a far bigger risk to spread than going shopping for clothing items. Now possibly there is spread occuring in the common areas of shopping centres were people congregate but I don't believe the spread in individual shops was worth it.
While I feel bad for hospitality at least they fell into a pretty broad category where people gather and could cause spread.
But like I say, I don't see how shopping for a tv is fine but clothes is deemed risky.

But to answer the original question, did level 5 fail. If the aim was to get to 50 a day then it did fail. Given what remained open and the amount of spread in health care settings, it was probably never attainable, but maybe Nphet knew that all along.

01-12-2020 11:50am

Boggles wrote: »

30 odd in ICU and 230 in hospital and we are opening the economy for Christmas?

What were the goals you were looking for?

That's not too shabby to be fair.

Italy are back to ICU numbers from March / April and deaths are starting to follow.

A country on this Island has gone into lock down again.

Where would you prefer to be heading into the festive season?

The numbers don’t bother me but I fear they do bother government/NPHET.

If it wasn’t Christmas we’d be locked down for another 2 months in my opinion.

That’s the concern.

landofthetree · 01-12-2020 11:50am

Close the schools in January. Let them come in during the mid term in Feb and over Easter plius one more week in the summer.

This should be the plan as Covid numbers are going to be pretty high after Xmas.

tjhook · 01-12-2020 11:51am

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

What I would love to know is say mid 2021 if we get all healthcare workers and vulnerable people vaccinated can we just then return to normal?

That's what I've been wondering too. Even at the end of next year when everybody has access to the vaccine.

Let's say 80% of people are willing to take a vaccine, and the vaccine is 90-95% effective (maybe 95% but I'm not sure how certain that is). That leaves somewhere in the region of 25% of the population still at risk to Covid. And I think that's borderline in terms of herd immunity, but I'm open to correction.

Will the government just let things go back to normal? Or leave measures in place to protect the 25%? Imagine the uproar if they're not protected.

Boggles · 01-12-2020 11:51am

Deleted User wrote: »

The numbers don’t bother me but I fear they do bother government/NPHET.

If it wasn’t Christmas we’d be locked down for another 2 months in my opinion.

That’s the concern.

So you are inventing scenarios to be concerned about?

Seriously is there not enough going on?

_Brian · 01-12-2020 11:51am

landofthetree wrote: »

Close the schools in January. Let them come in during the mid term in Feb and over Easter plius one more week in the summer.

This should be the plan as Covid numbers are going to be pretty high after Xmas.

There’s no science in saying that. Less than 2% of recent covid cases have been in schools.

rob316 · 01-12-2020 11:53am

Failure. L5 did not drop the numbers to the same degree as L3 did. The damage to the economy far outweighed the effectiveness of the restrictions. Sage in the UK said closing non essential retail will only bring the r0 down by .1%, instead the geniuses in charge have decided to shove all our retail activity into 3 weeks. I was in Aldi on Saturday, social distancing and low numbers out the window it was absolutely packed. You will have similar scenes across the whole of december, everywhere. The weather is about to turn very cold and your incredibly naive if you think big retail stores will leave their customers outside.

01-12-2020 11:55am

landofthetree wrote: »

Close the schools in January. Let them come in during the mid term in Feb and over Easter plius one more week in the summer.

This should be the plan as Covid numbers are going to be pretty high after Xmas.

I will refer you to the best answer to your assertion on the other thread which you duly ignored

seamus wrote: »

The "turning an oil tanker" analogy is the best one when it comes to this virus. When you first turn the wheel, you can barely even feel the ship moving at all.

Case numbers don't change on a whim. The seeds are sown and don't sprout for 14-21 days.

So *if* we see an upward change in case numbers, it won't be till 15th January at the very earliest.

By that point they will still have been on a continuous downward trend from where we are now.

If we take the worst case scenario where cases stay flat till the 15th and then begin a sharp upward trend, you're still talking about New Year before we're back in 4 digits.

More likely, with hospitality closed until Friday we won't see any remarkable change in cases caused by today's easing of restrictions.

We *may* see small bump in numbers around the 25th as the impact from opening restaurants is felt. But we know level 3 general works, so it won't be as bad as expected.

The most noticeable jump in cases will be around the first week in January as the impact of opening up on the 18th is felt. Imposing tighter restrictions on the 6th then should (in theory) ensure that we get cases back down and under control before we see any serious problems emerge.

The wildcard here is peoples' behaviour. If people throw caution to the wind and go "ah shure it's Xmas, we can lock down in January", then the spike in early January could be huge.

If people accept that this is a one-year deal and make a good faith effort to stick with the guidelines, then any increase in cases should be manageable.

cgcsb · 01-12-2020 11:55am

Can only be as successful as the level of compliance - whatever the incidence of school transmission is. Large house parties are still a regular fixture as is cross country travel.

Bit cynical · 01-12-2020 11:55am

kaahooters wrote: »

if people will get vaccinated, thats the next issue.

Some people will get vaccinated however and that will ease the need for strict lockdowns somewhat.

What we haven't done however is found a sustainable way of living with the virus long-term. It is still a situation where we are forced to lift the lockdown a bit, then people who have been pent up head out to the shops, then news reports of people "abusing" their freedoms and calls for re-imposition of restrictions and the cycle begins again.

copeyhagen · 01-12-2020 11:56am

what i would like to know, is if the median age of death is still 83?
have we been lied to again, are nearly all hospital cases still the elderly(vulnerable)?
whats the average age of the currently hospital admitted FOR covid, not the 200 that caught covid while in hospital?
whats the average age of ICU covid patients?
where they admitted to hospital/ICU with covid or caught covid while there.

imo these are the important questions, of course we will never know the answers.. or not until after. not as long as humpty dumpty is health minister, and doctor hush is CMO

Boggles · 01-12-2020 11:57am

prunudo wrote: »

With so many businesses open I don't believe closing the few remaining retail was really worth it when you factor in the cost of pup and lost revenue to amazon and the like.

I can see both sides of it, standards from what I saw personally, dropped considerably, I left a couple of retail outlets because they were taking the píss with the amount of people they had let in, shopping which had been a solidarity event was now a family day out again.

That said there was a couple of other businesses that did not deviate from their strict protocols from the start and were closed.

I would a preferred a stern reminder to businesses to act responsibly with extra protocols and with actual enforcement than simply closing them down.

Hopefully that's the route for next year.

01-12-2020 12:00pm

atr2002 wrote: »

I was surprised they cited kids mental health as a reason not to close schools.

If they had of extended the Halloween hols a week either side of the break and the same with Christmas, id wager the numbers would plummet, as looking to my previous post, the age profile getting infected being 35 to 45 being parents of primary school kids

It was a political stunt to appease the voter base, nothing more. Harried parents working from home can't have little Deirdre and Seanie running around the kitchen, now can they? And take a gander at what was posted in the Schools thread a few minutes ago:

"Multiple Covid-19 cases have been confirmed at a school in Co Galway.
An urgent letter was sent to parents and guardians at the school by the HSE last Friday.
They were told that all close contacts of the cases had been contacted."

Some people here defending schools remaining open in Level 5 have a vested interest doing so.

tjhook · 01-12-2020 12:09pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Some people here defending schools remaining open in Level 5 have a vested interest doing so.

I haven't defended it on Boards, but I have a vested interest in them staying open. My kids. I want them to have an education.

At the start of all this there was an attempt made to utilise "online leaning". It was a flop. One of my kids had one class online per day. The other had none and has simply assigned work to do in her own time.

As you reference the Schools threads, I also remember the postings from teachers stating how online learning couldn't possibly be made to work. The combination of "I have very bad internet access", "I have no laptop", "I'm not using my own resources for this", "I'm not doing that in my bedroom", "It's not fair because not all students have the equipment to participate"... it may be valid, but it shows how there's no alternative to keeping the schools open.

FintanMcluskey · 01-12-2020 12:10pm

_Brian wrote: »

We are by far the lowest covid figures across Europe. I’d say that’s a resounding success.
Yea, NEPHET had hoped the figures would have been lower but remember the government watered down their recommendations for political reasons.

It did a good job, we need to minimise the spread now.

General feeling is we will be straight back into a L5 on 6th Jan.

Countries round the world that were being held up as shining examples of what we could be doing are now implementing similar lockdowns to ours now.

There is more issues in town than Covid.

The rest of the EU realised that months ago

It’s costing Ireland 3 million an hour to win this bolix Covid trophy of fewest cases in the EU

funnydoggy · 01-12-2020 12:20pm

atr2002 wrote: »

I was surprised they cited kids mental health as a reason not to close schools.

If they had of extended the Halloween hols a week either side of the break and the same with Christmas, id wager the numbers would plummet, as looking to my previous post, the age profile getting infected being 35 to 45 being parents of primary school kids

A government caring about mental health? :pac:

01-12-2020 12:25pm

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

There is more issues in town than Covid.

The rest of the EU realised that months ago

It’s costing Ireland 3 million an hour to win this bolix Covid trophy of fewest cases in the EU

Might want to inform yourself on restrictions in Europe at the moment

Beasty · 01-12-2020 12:28pm

Maybe OP we should have left things as they were. Then we could be staring down the barrel now and perhaps be looking forward to another 6 months of lockdiwn

Now I think there could have been something closer to Level 4, but I'm not going to criticise when they brought down the level of infections and the health service is still coping

FintanMcluskey · 01-12-2020 12:32pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Might want to inform yourself on restrictions in Europe at the moment

I know all about them from June to November.

Inform yourself about those

FintanMcluskey · 01-12-2020 12:34pm

Beasty wrote: »

Maybe OP we should have left things as they were. Then we could be staring down the barrel now and perhaps be looking forward to another 6 months of lockdiwn

Which we are of course looking forward to months more lockdown

Something like a level 3-4 mishmash

I assume Ireland is now the most “relaxed” nation in Europe by a significant amount?

John O.Groats · 01-12-2020 12:50pm

Deleted User wrote: »

It was a political stunt to appease the voter base, nothing more. Harried parents working from home can't have little Deirdre and Seanie running around the kitchen, now can they? And take a gander at what was posted in the Schools thread a few minutes ago:

"Multiple Covid-19 cases have been confirmed at a school in Co Galway.
An urgent letter was sent to parents and guardians at the school by the HSE last Friday.
They were told that all close contacts of the cases had been contacted."

Some people here defending schools remaining open in Level 5 have a vested interest doing so.

As have those who have a vested interest in wanting the wet pubs to reopen. Education is far more important than getting scuttered in a pub.

Level 5 lockdown essentially failed

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