Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

rp79 · 27-11-2020 12:03AM

paddyisreal wrote: »

In the last 6 months between May the 24th and november the 25th we have had over 65 percent of the total cases 46555 out of 71187 and only 21 percent of the deaths. Also total icu admissions are only 20 percent for the same period.

What modeling technique are nphet using for icu and deaths because to my eye its figures are way off. Doesn't add up and doesn't install confidence in them at all.

This is hugely important. To me nphet take the overall figures of cases and icu numbers to date rather than adjusting for the fact there had been a huge decrease in percentage of cases needing icu. Their icu projection figure on October 15 was way off with very little focus given to it.

KrustyUCC · 27-11-2020 12:03AM

MD1990 wrote: »

no mentioning of allowing kids play football or amateur football returning. Outdoors & is safe.

But pubs & restaurants allowed open.

Obesity epidemic will also be a problem too at least gyms will be open but will be closed in January though

what kids matches usually happen in December?

Kids training didn't stop during level 5 for my local GAA or soccer teams

At level three adult training should be back but not matches afaik

KrustyUCC · 27-11-2020 12:05AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Nursing homes where 50% plus of deaths occured have upped their game but some are still run by idiots like the place in Kerry last week that had to be seized by the HSE because it was in complete disaray.

https://www.thejournal.ie/oaklands-nursing-home-5279958-Nov2020/

That's some disgraceful situation unfortunately

27-11-2020 12:06AM

hmmm wrote: »

Indoor locations, poorly ventilated, people talking and particularly shouting are where the virus spreads fast. They shouldn't reopen or we'll be back in lockdown again. That's not me, that's the virus. 2 metres is not a magic barrier which protects you from a virus which is airborne, that science is out of date.

Outdoor anything I'm fine with, take-aways etc.

We can live with the above until the vaccines arrive and turn the tide. We're stuck in this stupid cycle of reopening too much and having a panicked lockdown a few weeks later as case inevitably spike.

So lockdown until the vaccine comes...

ixoy · 27-11-2020 12:09AM

hmmm wrote: »

We can live with the above until the vaccines arrive and turn the tide. We're stuck in this stupid cycle of reopening too much and having a panicked lockdown a few weeks later as case inevitably spike.

What would you open then? Keep it with retail open but no pubs/restaurants?

I'm torn between restaurants myself, although my immediate area has low cases so local ones should, in theory, be okay. Wouldn't be meeting others there either.

emo72 · 27-11-2020 12:09AM

The gas thing is after we clear covid, there's no guarantee another ****ing virus won't pop up.

Just like buses......

hmmm · 27-11-2020 12:10AM

Deleted User wrote: »

So lockdown until the vaccine comes...

If I remember correctly, you didn't think there was going to be an increase in cases last time and didn't see another lockdown to control the rapid rise either?

Arghus · 27-11-2020 12:11AM

Deleted User wrote: »

So lockdown until the vaccine comes...

I think level 3 until a vaccine comes.

There's really nobody arguing in favour of permanent lockdown until a vaccine comes.

But I wouldn't feel great about what we're doing now - going back down to level 3 with 300 plus cases a day.

niallo27 · 27-11-2020 12:12AM

hmmm wrote: »

Indoor locations, poorly ventilated, people talking and particularly shouting are where the virus spreads fast. They shouldn't reopen or we'll be back in lockdown again. That's not me, that's the virus. 2 metres is not a magic barrier which protects you from a virus which is airborne, that science is out of date.

Outdoor anything I'm fine with, take-aways etc.

We can live with the above until the vaccines arrive and turn the tide. We're stuck in this stupid cycle of reopening too much and having a panicked lockdown a few weeks later as case inevitably spike.

They were open in the summer and cases stayed relatively low, you talk about the stupid cycle of reopening but your solution seems to be to keep them closed. You talk about back in lockdown but if we keep everything closed then are we not just in lockdown anyway. Its a miserable way to live a life.

CalamariFritti · 27-11-2020 12:13AM

niallo27 wrote: »

Is retail closed in Germany, are they limited to 5km. Are they limited to no household visits.

Sadly Germany is as bad if not worse.

Merkel had meetings with the state heads to hammer out a whole new range of measures since nothing seems to be working. Of course they are already in lockdown for weeks.

Now for starters there is no such body in the constitution so the whole thing is on shaky grounds. As are all the measures to begin with. But still last week the 'grand coalition' rushed permanent emergency legislation through the Bundestag where they actually put those crazy incidence numbers into law. It was originally time limited but its now permanent. One can only hope this end in front of the Bunderverfassungsgericht and I'm sure it will.

And the stuff they came up with is hilarious if it wasn't so serious/sad. Shops with more than 800 m^2 have to restrict entrance so that there are 25m^2 per customer. Which is more than 5m social distancing. So now you gonna have people hoarding and the queues outside the supermarkets are going to be mental. In the pissing rain/snow in December. Oh and yes people in those queues in the car park will now have to wear masks too, also in certain streets. Outside.

And of course Germans love their rules and regulations even more than our government does and you have an even bigger cohort of curtain twitchers and snoopers and tellers.

its basically a capitulation of rationality and sense. Germany is gone full on mental and the civil rights situation is even worse see above law. Last week they had water guns out 'against' perfectly normal people including old ones and kids.

You say anything at all against the state narrative you are a 'covidiot', covid denier, conspiracy theorist or nazi. Have your pick.

Germany is either heading for a totalitarian heath police state or else what are now just demonstration will descend into civil unrest and worse. Last night someone drove a car into the Chancellors office. I really fear for Germany.

hmmm · 27-11-2020 12:14AM

ixoy wrote: »

What would you open then? Keep it with retail open but no pubs/restaurants?

I don't see why retail should have been shut myself. Level 5 is the highest level so I can understand why it was, but shutting indoor locations like pubs & restaurants should happen at a lower level in my opinion.

27-11-2020 12:14AM

Good on the government for not blindly following NPHET. The stricter time limit on tables is frustrating, but a necessary evil I guess. It was not enforced at all in my local earlier in the year, as it was rarely very busy. We often spent 3+ hours there. It will be different this time as it will be busy, and so there will be an incentive for the restaurant or pub to kick you out and increase their covers. That’s probably a good thing I suppose, as it’ll help the sector’s turnover during the nest weeks.

I think overall it’s a decent outcome

eagle eye · 27-11-2020 12:15AM

D.Q wrote:

Ah don't be having a sulk because some people are allowed a bit of enjoyment. I'd suggest focusing your fear and anxiety on climate change when this all wraps up. Probably a bit more mileage in it. Slower burn misery obviously but well worth the investment.

You are accusing me of being miserable which I'm not and never have been.
The reason I'm not is because I've went through tough times before and cut my cloth accordingly and put up with it for as long as I had to.
I'm very happy in my life and thankful for what I've got. I'm looking forward to life going back to normal once we all get vaccinated.
In the meantime I'm happy to give up things and do my best for my family. I just don't want to contract this virus.

Eod100 · 27-11-2020 12:15AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

6 and 1.45 but to be honest for restaurants no idea how you can cut the 1hr 45 you'd be struggling to finish a decent 3 course in less.

Then again the 1hr 45 mins was quite loosely applied

Yeah that's what I was thinking, you'd get indigestion if they cut it by more tbh

niallo27 · 27-11-2020 12:20AM

Arghus wrote: »

I think level 3 until a vaccine comes.

There's really nobody arguing in favour of permanent lockdown until a vaccine comes.

But I wouldn't feel great about what we're doing now - going back down to level 3 with 300 plus cases a day.

There is not much difference between level 3 and 5 in fairness. Germany strictest lockdown which has been extended despite huge pressure against is our level 3. Level 3 is a permanent lockdown, we can't even leave our counties. Where in level 3 is there any social activities allowed unless your in the freezing cold.

mirrorwall14 · 27-11-2020 12:22AM

Eod100 wrote: »

''As a compromise to Nphet, the Government said it will have stricter rules on household gatherings over Christmas.

Household visits will be banned until on December 18 and will only be permitted after that until January 3. Inter county travel will also be permitted in this time period as will religious services.''

Neither really can be enforced, I don't see many waiting from 1st and not to 18th to visit other households.

Are you ****ing kidding me? I’m sick to death of this. It’s been 6 bloody weeks. I’m not planning a house party. I’ll keep the bloody windows open but another nearly three weeks of no one in the house? Argh!!!!

KrustyUCC · 27-11-2020 12:22AM

hmmm wrote: »

I don't see why retail should have been shut myself. Level 5 is the highest level so I can understand why it was, but shutting indoor locations like pubs & restaurants should happen at a lower level in my opinion.

So at level 2 no pubs and restaurants indoors?

They were gone indoors at level 3 up to this point

Bare in mind that we never went to level 1 and we're not going to until the vaccines have well and truly kicked in

Arghus · 27-11-2020 12:23AM

niallo27 wrote: »

There is not much difference between level 3 and 5 in fairness. Germany strictest lockdown which has been extended despite huge pressure against is our level 3. Level 3 is a permanent lockdown, we can't even leave our counties. Where in level 3 is there any social activities allowed unless your in the freezing cold.

There's a huge difference between level 5 and level 3. Most retail stores being open is a big difference.

I know on paper at level 3 you aren't supposed to leave the county but we all know there's practically zero enforcement on that.

normanoffside · 27-11-2020 12:24AM

It’s a lot more dangerous to be in a hospital or a nursing home than it is to be in a pub or restaurant. That much is clear.

speckle · 27-11-2020 12:25AM

Great for the city gastro pubs but a disaster for the local non gastro pubs in the countryside. Yet again a rural city divide. I hope they are taken to court... see no reason why non gastro pubs cannot open outside.. didnt see cases arise from there.

MOR316 · 27-11-2020 12:25AM

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Are you ****ing kidding me? I’m sick to death of this. It’s been 6 bloody weeks. I’m not planning a house party. I’ll keep the bloody windows open but another nearly three weeks of no one in the house? Argh!!!!

That's why no one is coming to your house! You're letting all the heat out with all those windows open

niallo27 · 27-11-2020 12:26AM

Arghus wrote: »

There's a huge difference between level 5 and level 3. Most retail stores being open is a big difference.

I know on paper at level 3 you aren't supposed to leave the county but we all know there's practically zero enforcement on that.

In terms of social activities though, where is the difference. People need to live a little, its no good just saying they should do the right thing and why can't they hold on another 6 months to a year, they need to get people back in side.

Plumbthedepths · 27-11-2020 12:27AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I still can't get over the stupidity of the argument "stay in lockdown now so we can avoid a lockdown later"

Comical , isn't it?

mirrorwall14 · 27-11-2020 12:28AM

MOR316 wrote: »

That's why no one is coming to your house! You're letting all the heat out with all those windows open

This actually made me laugh. Kudos.

I’m so frustrated. I don’t want to go to a restaurant. I’ll keep supporting them with takeaway. I just want to be able to have one or two people to my house for a cup of coffee somewhere that is peaceful and it isn’t fecking raining

Polar101 · 27-11-2020 12:30AM

emo72 wrote: »

The gas thing is after we clear covid, there's no guarantee another ****ing virus won't pop up.

Just like buses......

It's likely to happen at some point in the future, but hopefully not any time soon. But maybe (western) governments will have figured out what to do and what not to do by then. And if it's a similar virus, there's a decent chance modifying vaccines to stop it will be a lot easier.

speckle · 27-11-2020 12:32AM

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

This actually made me laugh. Kudos.

I’m so frustrated. I don’t want to go to a restaurant. I’ll keep supporting them with takeaway. I just want to be able to have one or two people to my house for a cup of coffee somewhere that is peaceful and it isn’t fecking raining

I know the feeling...the 550km sq around my house should have been level 1 for all of this and I still cannot go to my local for tea and cake with friends for 2 euro over the season yet we had 1000s of tourists here this summer.

cameramonkey · 27-11-2020 12:34AM

emo72 wrote: »

The gas thing is after we clear covid, there's no guarantee another ****ing virus won't pop up.

Just like buses......

Are you George Lee?

27-11-2020 12:35AM

niallo27 wrote: »

In terms of social activities though, where is the difference. People need to live a little, its no good just saying they should do the right thing and why can't they hold on another 6 months to a year, they need to get people back in side.

Probably some kind of hybrid between 2 and 3 would be a reasonable solution.

I’ve been anti restrictions but I don’t agree with a go mental and then lockdown approach.

And i definitely don’t agree with remain locked down to avoid... lockdown...

There has to be some sort of workable middle ground.

Arghus · 27-11-2020 12:35AM

niallo27 wrote: »

In terms of social activities though, where is the difference. People need to live a little, its no good just saying they should do the right thing and why can't they hold on another 6 months to a year, they need to get people back in side.

I don't know how ensuring that there's going to be another spike in cases is going to help to get people on side to be honest.

I know there's the argument that people may need the few weeks of relative freedom to relieve the pressure, but, ultimately I don't see how it won't be counterproductive in the end if we go back again into sharply rising cases - and I'm afraid I see no other likely outcome from what we're currently doing.

Arghus · 27-11-2020 12:37AM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Comical , isn't it?

It is comical, but that isn't the argument people are making.

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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