Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

gigantic09 · 13-11-2020 08:46PM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Ffs let kids be kids.this crap of blaming everyone else is tiresome.the sooner financial reality kicks in here the better to rid us of the lockdown forever shower

Why should kids be exempt from all the hoops were being asked to jump through?.lts not a case of blaming them as such. I just find it ridiculous that so many premises in town are closed as a solution to stop the spread, yet gangs of kids are congragated outside them.lf I was one of those businesses that are closed most of the year I'd be livid.

JP100 · 13-11-2020 08:50PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

It didn't take long for the close the schools brigade to reappear. They'll disappear again I'm sure when we return to daily decline.

Schools were closed for one week. The downward trend has been happening for several weeks. It continues today despite the small uptick in daily cases.

The last few pages of this thread mentioned the possibility of schools as a significant source of transmission, then you come along and are the first to mention closing schools, well done to you and your fellow propagandists who then clamoured to like your post. All the while with ye being the only ones to mention closing schools, well done once again!

Funsterdelux · 13-11-2020 08:53PM

JP100 wrote: »

The last few pages of this thread mentioned the possibility of schools as a significant source of transmission, then you come along and are the first to mention closing schools, well done to you and your fellow propagandists who then clamoured to like your post. All the while with ye being the only ones to mention closing schools, well done once again!

Give me the "schools brigade" over the senicide brigade any day.

:pac:

Wolf359f · 13-11-2020 09:11PM

JP100 wrote: »

How many times does this need to be repeated, most children are asymptomatic but can pass it on to somebody else who is not asymptomatic, such is the chain of the virus.

Just a quick check and the only definitive figures I can get for children is 20% truly asymptomatic and 40% asymptomatic at time of testing... Which ties into exactly the same breakdown in the greater population in Ireland (~60% have symptoms at time of test)
Would lead me to believe that there's very little difference between the rate of asymptomatic cases in children vs everyone else.

normanoffside · 13-11-2020 09:18PM

JP100 wrote: »

How many times does this need to be repeated, most children are asymptomatic but can pass it on to somebody else who is not asymptomatic, such is the chain of the virus.

Well if their parents caught it from them and test positive then they'd be tested too and the infection would show up in them.

I'm still very dubious about spread of infection from Asymptomatic children. Many studies have been done and have show that adults just don't pick it up from kids half as frequently as they do from other adults.

JP100 · 13-11-2020 09:28PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Just a quick check and the only definitive figures I can get for children is 20% truly asymptomatic and 40% asymptomatic at time of testing... Which ties into exactly the same breakdown in the greater population in Ireland (~60% have symptoms at time of test)
Would lead me to believe that there's very little difference between the rate of asymptomatic cases in children vs everyone else.

"US studies show viral loads of the coronavirus are especially high among children and youths, who can unknowingly spread it for weeks".

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-children-study/a-54749938

wadacrack · 13-11-2020 09:29PM

Luke O'Neill is on the late late show tonight. Mcconkey seems to have taken a break from media duties along with the other GP

Away With The Fairies · 13-11-2020 09:30PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Luke O'Neill is on the late late show tonight. Mcconkey seems to have taken a break from media duties along with the other GP

Was he not on the late late show a couple of weeks ago?

sonofenoch · 13-11-2020 09:37PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'm sure you can go back through all the figures from when the schools were open, closed and opened back up and if you're correct, you will see the incidence rate in school aged kids reducing from schools being closed and now increasing as they are back open.
Should put the schools causing the spread to bed.

How many school aged kids get tested? seriously ............little Jonny has a bit of a sniffle few paracetemol he'll be right as rain in a couple of days ..........in the meantime who knows who's caught what

Funsterdelux · 13-11-2020 09:37PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Luke O'Neill is on the late late show tonight. Mcconkey seems to have taken a break from media duties along with the other GP

His work here is done

nimoy.gif?w=655

JP100 · 13-11-2020 09:39PM

normanoffside wrote: »

Well if their parents caught it from them and test positive then they'd be tested too and the infection would show up in them.

You fail to realise in the above that parents can be asymptomatic as well. I know of two families where this exactly happened and it was only when the virus spread out to extended family members that the asymptomatic cases were then later on found out.

I also know of a situation in a school whereby when wider testing was carried out after one child in the class tested positive, seven other children tested positive in the class along with the class teacher. All cases asymptomatic except the initial case that generated the wider testing in the first place.

normanoffside · 13-11-2020 09:39PM

sonofenoch wrote: »

How many school aged kids get tested? seriously ............little Jonny has a bit of a sniffle few paracetemol he'll be right as rain in a couple of days ..........in the meantime who knows who's caught what

When schools opened up the testing centres were lined with kids with sniffles, so much so that they had to reduce testing in key area like nursing homes and meat factories.
At a time when the national positivity rate was around 4%, kids were testing positive around 1% of the time.

JP Liz V1 · 13-11-2020 09:42PM

Limerick hospital has a good few staff out with Covid

polesheep · 13-11-2020 09:45PM

gigantic09 wrote: »

Why should kids be exempt from all the hoops were being asked to jump through?.lts not a case of blaming them as such. I just find it ridiculous that so many premises in town are closed as a solution to stop the spread, yet gangs of kids are congragated outside them.lf I was one of those businesses that are closed most of the year I'd be livid.

The herd has moved on, led by the youngest and fittest. If you thought that young people were going to hang around indefinitely living a caged life you were very much mistaken. It's just human nature. As people get older and accumulate wealth they wrongly assume that they have control. In reality, they are already a relic in the eyes of the next generations. Youth will never be subdued for long.

Wolf359f · 13-11-2020 09:46PM

JP100 wrote: »

"US studies show viral loads of the coronavirus are especially high among children and youths, who can unknowingly spread it for weeks".

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-children-study/a-54749938

Your previous post stated most children are asymptomatic and then you link a study which states 22% were asymptomatic. My issue was with you using the term 'most' children are asymptomatic. Which according to you link is incorrect. I wouldn't consider 22% to be most.

polesheep · 13-11-2020 09:47PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Was he not on the late late show a couple of weeks ago?

Can you not say that about every guest?

caveat emptor · 13-11-2020 09:51PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Just a quick check and the only definitive figures I can get for children is 20% truly asymptomatic and 40% asymptomatic at time of testing... Which ties into exactly the same breakdown in the greater population in Ireland (~60% have symptoms at time of test)
Would lead me to believe that there's very little difference between the rate of asymptomatic cases in children vs everyone else.

Do you have a source for that? Would be interesting. Jury is out in my mind but I'll add something here which might be useful. Well kids are more likely to be asymptomatic than adults so therefore less likely to be tested. I would think any estimate of the proportion of those asymptomatic will be underestimated as the figure will be skewed towards those with symptoms.

In Israel "Most children with #COVID19 were asymptomatic (51-70%).

As shown in the figure below, children of pre-school & primary school age were more likely to be asymptomatic than older children.

The top (pink) bar indicates the proportion who were asymptomatic in each age group."

https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/bz-400844120/he/files_publications_corona_bz-400844120.pdf

JP100 · 13-11-2020 09:54PM

normanoffside wrote: »

When schools opened up the testing centres were lined with kids with sniffles, so much so that they had to reduce testing in key area like nursing homes and meat factories.
At a time when the national positivity rate was around 4%, kids were testing positive around 1% of the time.

I genuinely believe alot has changed since September and people are far more relaxed or complacent, whichever of those two you want to call it about the virus and with the constant narrative of nothing to see here in relation to schools very much playing in to that.

owlbethere · 13-11-2020 09:55PM

I can't wait for a vaccine. The first thing I'm going to do is go out and get drunk to wagon wheel.

JP100 · 13-11-2020 09:59PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Your previous post stated most children are asymptomatic and then you link a study which states 22% were asymptomatic. My issue was with you using the term 'most' children are asymptomatic. Which according to you link is incorrect. I wouldn't consider 22% to be most.

I used the previous link to also highlight the critical role very mild cases also play in this. If you want to see studies whereby the majority of children are Indeed asymptomatic, you only have to look to the Israel study which another poster has already posted in this thread.

13-11-2020 10:03PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I can't wait for a vaccine. The first thing I'm going to do is go out and get drunk to wagon wheel.

dont forget the 'I'll be riding shotgun, underneath the hot sun...'

owlbethere · 13-11-2020 10:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

dont forget the 'I'll be riding shotgun, underneath the hot sun...'

I love that song too.

13-11-2020 10:09PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Test and trace appears to be a disaster in NI. I am sure the population up there know all about the precautions that will lessen the spread, but are they adhering?

Even having checks on the Irish side on approaches to and from Strabane and Derry could be tried, but a lot of those crossing over for shopping and leisure are probably within the 5k rule.

That would not be a border check but a check by ROI on ROI residents and those who are not cross border workers, but I can imagine the hullabaloo. Even if Holohan asked people to avoid travelling across the border other than for work, for the sake of their own health and that of their community might help somewhat. But I doubt it.

I meant to reply to this earlier, I looked up some statistics out of curiosity.

AADT is Annual Average Daily Traffic, which is a measure of traffic volumes.

The approximate AADT for the border crossing at Bridgend in Donegal/Derry = 19,300

The AADT crossing from Lifford in Donegal/Strabane = 17,250

I Googled this earlier and these figures were discussed at a Donegal County Council meeting in October.

I dont know what the AADT for those roads would be currently with the lockdown.

manniot2 · 13-11-2020 10:17PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I can't wait for a vaccine. The first thing I'm going to do is go out and get drunk to wagon wheel.

You have a 9-12 month wait ahead of you.

manniot2 · 13-11-2020 10:19PM

Danny boy on Twitter was predicting a humanitarian crisis in the North a few weeks ago. Has it unfolded?

Wolf359f · 13-11-2020 10:24PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Do you have a source for that? Would be interesting. Jury is out in my mind but I'll add something here which might be useful. Well kids are more likely to be asymptomatic than adults so therefore less likely to be tested. I would think any estimate of the proportion of those asymptomatic will be underestimated as the figure will be skewed towards those with symptoms.

In Israel "Most children with #COVID19 were asymptomatic (51-70%).

As shown in the figure below, children of pre-school & primary school age were more likely to be asymptomatic than older children.

The top (pink) bar indicates the proportion who were asymptomatic in each age group."

https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/reports/bz-400844120/he/files_publications_corona_bz-400844120.pdf

Source was already posted, but a much much (tiny in compassion) smaller sample size compared to the Israeli study, although I can't read it as it's not in English.
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-children-study/a-54749938

prunudo · 13-11-2020 10:27PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I meant to reply to this earlier, I looked up some statistics out of curiosity.

AADT is Annual Average Daily Traffic, which is a measure of traffic volumes.

The approximate AADT for the border crossing at Bridgend in Donegal/Derry = 19,300

The AADT crossing from Lifford in Donegal/Strabane = 17,250

I Googled this earlier and these figures were discussed at a Donegal County Council meeting in October.

I dont know what the AADT for those roads would be currently with the lockdown.

All the information you need there, very good resource.

https://www.nratrafficdata.ie/c2/calendar_alt.asp?sgid=ZvyVmXU8jBt9PJE$c7UXt6&spid=NRA_000000001141

spookwoman · 13-11-2020 10:29PM

Sorry running late tonight nodded off

WoollyRedHat · 13-11-2020 10:37PM

Interesting Princeton led Study that studied half a million people in India which found the superspreader effect in full action:

'The researchers found that 71% of infected individuals did not infect any of their contacts, while a mere 8% of infected individuals accounted for 60% of new infections.'

Data also suggested that children and young adults were key to transmitting the virus in the studied populations.

'“Kids are very efficient transmitters in this setting, which is something that hasn’t been firmly established in previous studies,” Laxminarayan said. “We found that reported cases and deaths have been more concentrated in younger cohorts than we expected based on observations in higher-income countries.”

Published 30th September in Science journal.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/370/6517/691

The fundamental fact of the matter is that until we successfully identify and isolate superspreaders, whatever age they might be, in a fast turnaround, we're chasing our own shadow.

sonofenoch · 13-11-2020 10:50PM

normanoffside wrote: »

When schools opened up the testing centres were lined with kids with sniffles, so much so that they had to reduce testing in key area like nursing homes and meat factories.
At a time when the national positivity rate was around 4%, kids were testing positive around 1% of the time.

So testing was done over a day or 2? how many.................I'm talking about in general

The fact is the vast majority of people in this country don't follow these threads religiously, and a fair number would be loathe to admit little Jonny might be carrying a 'deadly virus' if all he is showing up as having a bit of a head cold.........and that's not even addressing the number of kids with no symptoms at all

Covid 19 Part XXVIII- 71,942 ROI(2,050 deaths) 51,824 NI (983 deaths) (28/11) Read OP

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