Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-11-2020 1:10pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Not until my feet are on foreign soil.

Myself and the missus had our first serious chat on this topic last night. Felt weird, as what was once a dream is now on the horizon as a definite possibility if things keep going this way. Going to consult a friend who is an accountant shortly, they're also actually the only other person I know in the real world who owns BTC. Exciting times.

Currently thinking a 3/4 year career break / holiday in Portugal.

Bob24 · 06-11-2020 1:21pm

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Myself and the missus had our first serious chat on this topic last night. Felt weird, as what was once a dream is now on the horizon as a definite possibility if things keep going this way. Going to consult a friend who is an accountant shortly, they're also actually the only other person I know in the real world who owns BTC. Exciting times.

Currently thinking a 3/4 year career break / holiday in Portugal.

Yeah this is crazy.

Depending on where prices are going and how much people are hodling, if someone wants to liquidate their holdings it could indeed be more lucrative to chill in Portugal for 3 years than working hard in this country during that period. That is a bit crazy ... and I don't see why anyone would pick option 1.

I don't think too many people are in that situation yet though, but if the S2F model turns out to be a good price predictor, quite a few average Joes who put a few grands a year in bitcoin over the past couple of years and are now holding a single digit or low double-digit number of bitcoins mind find themselves having to thing about it .

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-11-2020 1:30pm

Bob24 wrote: »

Yeah this is crazy.

Depending on where prices are going and how much people are hodling, if someone wants to liquidate their holdings the savings on CGT could indeed make it more lucrative to chill in Portugal for 3 years than working hard in this country during that period. That is a bit crazy ... and I don't see why anyone would pick option 1.

I don't think too many people are in that situation yet though, but if the S2F model turns out to be a good price predictor, quite a few average Joes who put a few grands a year in bitcoin over the past couple of years and are now holding a single digit or low double-digit number of bitcoins mind find themselves having to thing about it .

This is it exactly. Even while still paying a mortgage here, it costs less to live in Portugal without a job than paying CGT here. Silly stuff altogether. It helps that I absolutely love Portugal and the Portugese.

Salvadoor · 06-11-2020 1:34pm

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

This is it exactly. Even while still paying a mortgage here, it costs less to live in Portugal without a job than paying CGT here. Silly stuff altogether. It helps that I absolutely love Portugal and the Portugese.

Fair play to you - hope it works out.

My aim is to gain enough to pay off mortgages etc that has a knock on impact of potential early retirement etc

Whelo79 · 06-11-2020 1:38pm

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Myself and the missus had our first serious chat on this topic last night. Felt weird, as what was once a dream is now on the horizon as a definite possibility if things keep going this way. Going to consult a friend who is an accountant shortly, they're also actually the only other person I know in the real world who owns BTC. Exciting times.

Currently thinking a 3/4 year career break / holiday in Portugal.

I'd love to know even a rough ballpark figure of how many BTC you are holding. Just to satisfy my own curiosity

You are the one constant purchaser of BTC this whole time no matter if we are in bull or bear mode.

Absolutely delighted for you man.

Bob24 · 06-11-2020 1:55pm

BTW, hodlers who have their coins deposited on Celsius Network to get some yield can be happy if they are getting pain interest in CEL tokens.

Not only those tokens came for "free", but they also increased 3351.2% in the past year and 33% just in the past 7 days.

I have seen a few interviews of Alex Mashinsky over the post for months and I find it to be one of the most solid CEOs amongst crypto-related companies (also have a sweet spot for Michael Novogratz and his company Galaxy Digital).

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-11-2020 2:02pm

Salvadoor wrote: »

Fair play to you - hope it works out.

My aim is to gain enough to pay off mortgages etc that has a knock on impact of potential early retirement etc

Paying off the mortgage is the one purchase you could make and not regret even if Bitcoin was to do another 10x from the point you sold.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-11-2020 2:13pm

Whelo79 wrote: »

I'd love to know even a rough ballpark figure of how many BTC you are holding. Just to satisfy my own curiosity

You are the one constant purchaser of BTC this whole time no matter if we are in bull or bear mode.

Absolutely delighted for you man.

Thanks man. I think most people who are asked that question will simply say the same thing - not enough. Still doing the day job and will be for a good while. I've made a lot of personal sacrifices over the last 2+ years but I think it'll all be worth it by the looks of things. I've got by with just the bare essentials. Lockdown has made this an awful lot easier. Before these gains I lost a lot on HIVE Blockchain among others so it hasn't been easy so far. March 12th was a real test of my sanity and conviction for the space. I was abroad on holidays and it absolutely ruined a few days of it, however I made the decision to buy multiple times that week thankfully despite the depression.

I'll keep buying for now, I am a strong believer in the first two S2F models, not the S2FX however (yet). Will be buying more later today (highest purchase yet).

Salvadoor · 06-11-2020 2:17pm

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Paying off the mortgage is the one purchase you could make and not regret even if Bitcoin was to do another 10x from the point you sold.

That is true, I'm a good bit away from that point now but at least it's heading in that direction as opposed to the dark days of the past (which may return again of course)

banie01 · 06-11-2020 2:17pm

My Mrs held a sum total of €50 in BTC that she'd bought on revolut this month in 2018.
She sold half of it this morning, for €150.

There's me trading and flipping since @2016, but she's the one who hit the 500% return :pac:

@InstaSte, delighted your DCA is bearing fruit.
@Everyone else, keep your powder dry and remember even if you sell. If you made a profit, be happy! Profit is always good, don't get too caught up in FOMO.

I'm out of BTC still

and looking on with a little envy.
But, I'm trading LTC out at nice profit at the mo. Volume over margin, I'm like the Aldi of crypto :pac:

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-11-2020 2:44pm

Just tor clarity, S2F still calls for a 6.4 x from here within around 14 months from now. €1000 now = €6400 then. I'd say there's currently a better chance of that happening than not happening. The real test will arise if that does indeed happen. As there's then every chance the next halving could drive the Bitcoin price up another 10x within 18 months of that. I still think we are all early in this space. If it happens, we win big. If I lose everything, I'll have enjoyed my time on this forum with you guys.

Bob24 · 06-11-2020 3:35pm

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Just tor clarity, S2F still calls for a 6.4 x from here within around 14 months from now. €1000 now = €6400 then. I'd say there's currently a better chance of that happening than not happening. The real test will arise if that does indeed happen. As there's then every chance the next halving could drive the Bitcoin price up another 10x within 18 months of that.

I think this is an interesting one. *If* the S2F model does indeed work this time around, it will be very much noticed and gain huge credit (many individuals and institutions are currently watching this space carefully).

Could it then bring forward some purchases as if many believe they have a model which accurately predicts a sharp price increase a few months/years down the road, a logical conclusion for anyone who believes in the model is to buy early in order to front-run everyone else.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-11-2020 3:41pm

Bob24 wrote: »

I think this is an interesting one. *If* the S2F model does indeed work this time around, it will be very much noticed and gain huge credit (many individuals and institutions are currently watching this space carefully).

Could it then bring forward some purchases as if you have a model which you believe accurately predicts a price increase, you will want to front-run everyone else.

Absolutely possible I reckon, it will change a lot of things such as if it does get validated, then I'd say that's the end of 70% + retraces between bull runs. Time will tell. The boardroom meetings will be interesting

stockshares · 06-11-2020 6:01pm

Pardon my ignorance lads, what is the 2SF Model?

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-11-2020 6:13pm

stockshares wrote: »

Pardon my ignorance lads, what is the 2SF Model?

S2F 'Stock-to-flow' is a number that shows how many years, at the current production rate, are required to achieve the current stock. Used for precious metals etc but now also Bitcoin.

The original piece by PlanB. It's a short read but well worth it.

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

The live S2F chart:

https://digitalik.net/btc/#:~:text=Stock%20to%20flow%20is%20defined,by%20yearly%20production%20(flow).

stockshares · 06-11-2020 6:36pm

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

S2F 'Stock-to-flow' is a number that shows how many years, at the current production rate, are required to achieve the current stock. Used for precious metals etc but now also Bitcoin.

The original piece by PlanB. It's a short read but well worth it.

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25

The live S2F chart:

https://digitalik.net/btc/#:~:text=Stock%20to%20flow%20is%20defined,by%20yearly%20production%20(flow).

Thanks, it's an interesting method of assigning value but it's conclusion was that
" The model predicts a bitcoin market value of $1trn after next halving in May 2020, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000."

Has this value been adjusted since the halving?

Nigel Fairservice · 06-11-2020 6:38pm

I put €1300 into Bitcoin (€1000) and ETH (€300) back in April, more out of curiosity than anything else. Worth about €1850 now. Nearly got rid of the lot at a loss a week or two ago. It's been an interesting few days.

Lex Luthor · 06-11-2020 7:15pm

Nigel Fairservice wrote: »

I put €1300 into Bitcoin (€1000) and ETH (€300) back in April, more out of curiosity than anything else. Worth about €1850 now. Nearly got rid of the lot at a loss a week or two ago. It's been an interesting few days.

hold on my friend, the next 12 months could be much better, unless you badly need the money, you will be glad of that investment

Lex Luthor · 06-11-2020 7:21pm

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Myself and the missus had our first serious chat on this topic last night. Felt weird, as what was once a dream is now on the horizon as a definite possibility if things keep going this way. Going to consult a friend who is an accountant shortly, they're also actually the only other person I know in the real world who owns BTC. Exciting times.

Currently thinking a 3/4 year career break / holiday in Portugal.

Fair play Addison Fancy Macrame, you are one of the more consistent cost averagers I have come across and as a long term hodler, it will pay off in the end

Realistically its the only way to may long term wealth

Portugal is also a serious consideration for me. I've holidayed there many many times and love everything about it, although if I was moving there it wouldnt be to the Algarve but further up the coast

Super country, super people and great weather

I've even started Portuguese lessons to get prepared I'm taking it that seriously

Hopefully we can all have a big party together when everthing settles down and we all cash in

Lex Luthor · 06-11-2020 7:29pm

$15,750 seems to be BTC's nemesis at the moment

Gonna be some fun once it breaks through

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-11-2020 7:41pm

Lex Luthor wrote: »

Fair play InstaSte, you are one of the more consistent cost averagers I have come across and as a long term hodler, it will pay off in the end

Realistically its the only way to may long term wealth

Portugal is also a serious consideration for me. I've holidayed there many many times and love everything about it, although if I was moving there it wouldnt be to the Algarve but further up the coast

Super country, super people and great weather

I've even started Portuguese lessons to get prepared I'm taking it that seriously

Hopefully we can all have a big party together when everthing settles down and we all cash in

I'd be thinking the silver coast myself too, up around Peniche somewhere, lovely part of the world.

We can have a halving party in 24.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-11-2020 7:48pm

stockshares wrote: »

Thanks, it's an interesting method of assigning value but it's conclusion was that
" The model predicts a bitcoin market value of $1trn after next halving in May 2020, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000."

Has this value been adjusted since the halving?

Yes was updated shortly afterwards to $100,000. S2FX mentions a figure of 288k :pac:

Bob24 · 06-11-2020 7:48pm

stockshares wrote: »

Thanks, it's an interesting method of assigning value but it's conclusion was that
" The model predicts a bitcoin market value of $1trn after next halving in May 2020, which translates in a bitcoin price of $55,000."

Has this value been adjusted since the halving?

There has been a few different versions of the model. I believe another one predicts around 100k and a third one around 280k. I haven’t looked into the details of how they differ though.

Irish_rat · 06-11-2020 8:06pm

How many btc should we have to be comfortable ðŸ˜…

I'm all in alts

Mucashinto · 06-11-2020 8:15pm

I'm sure there's lots of twists and turns yet to go but from my point of view the outcome of the US elections couldn't have been better for price and sentiment tbh. It may not be the most determining factor but I do feel a squeak of a win for Biden (and basically losses for the Dems in the house and senate?) has made people question what they think they know about our systems and where we are, and that can be only good for crypto imo.

From taking in media - anywhere in the world really - you'd think that whole country was devoutly anti-Trump and 'liberal' (quotation marks as I really believe a lot of these people are dreadfully misusing this word now). Ooof. Who knew some NY Times writer with zero interactions with people outside his own bubble wouldn't have his finger on the pulse.

And then at the other end, can you imagine having bought stock in Twitter (or any social media co tbh) recently? They finally decide to show their hand and overtly support and promote their own political viewpoint, while quashing those that disagree, and then wake up to see they just alienated 49% of their potential user base. Absolute disaster.

I don't think the US can turn this around honestly. Trump was largely a symptom imo but his non-interventionist international policy was astounding. South America, the Middle East, South East Asia or wherever else have all had opportunites for self determination never afforded to them under a functioning US military industrial complex. To think the Democrats under the Biden/Pelosi wing can just switch this all back on...it's beyond them imo. The belief won't be there in the people nor the competence in the US departments to influence it. The only thing they'll have to gain support, at home or abroad, will be those money printers. They are just going to have them going 24/7 I believe until finally people accept in a lasting way that it's all built on sand.

And then crypto comes along as the perfect counterpoint - impervious to influence, operates independently of the state (that same state that lurches from disaster to disaster) while also offering assurance by being forward-looking and technology based. And it feels inarguable, crypto strong & smart, fiat weak & dumb.

This isn't even factoring in viruses/pandemics and climate change, both of which ain't going anywhere seemingly and are inextricably linked to the current form of capitalism practiced imo. I mean does anyone think one of the existing pharma corps is going to provide a permanent cure for any disease? Ever? You could argue they'd fail in their fiduciary duties to the shareholders if they did, the money's in the comeback!

And that's my main worry about crypto tbh - I'm not sure I believe any truly great things can be done outside of the public sphere. The web 2.0 of the tech companies is vastly weaker than the first web of ARPA imo. Once you introduce a need for profit and short term demands, along with a desire to work against others as they're competition, your aims get quickly compromised imo. All the great feats of the 20th Century (moon landing, national health systems, internet, vaccines, energy grids, housing, roads etc etc) were done by public cooperation getting around this. Then private cos came in, piggy backed off the existing work/infrastructure and proceeded to make unheard of profits while paying ever smaller taxes.

With crypto/web 3.0 I don't have enough faith that mulitple small entities all operating independently can bring about solid lasting change they way large-scale cooperation can but I'm parking that worry for the moment as there's no viable alternative as far as I can see.

tl;dr I'm long term bullish on crypto as I think late western capitalism/America is doneski without serious change

q85dw7osi4lebg · 06-11-2020 8:21pm

Irish_rat wrote: »

How many btc should we have to be comfortable &#55357;&#56837;

I'm all in alts

There's approx. 0.0024 Bitcoin per person on the planet available, which is approx 37 dollars at todays price. Use that for your basis and decide what's right for you.

Donegal1234 · 06-11-2020 8:31pm

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

There's approx. 0.0024 Bitcoin per person on the planet available, which is approx 37 dollars at todays price. Use that for your basis and decide what's right for you.

It’s much less then that when you consider an estimated 2-3 million are lost forever

Like this poor chap lost 7500 bitcoin in 2013.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/bitcoin-value-james-howells-newport-landfill-hard-drive-campbell-simpson-laszlo-hanyecz-a8091371.html%3famp

cnocbui · 06-11-2020 8:38pm

Donegal1234 wrote: »

It’s much less then that when you consider an estimated 2-3 million are lost forever

Like this poor chap lost 7500 bitcoin in 2013.

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/bitcoin-value-james-howells-newport-landfill-hard-drive-campbell-simpson-laszlo-hanyecz-a8091371.html%3famp

Hypothetically, if the veracity of the story could be confirmed beyond doubt. It might be worth it to buy the landfill from the council and mine for it if BTC hits €50 K.

grindle · 06-11-2020 8:45pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Hypothetically, if the veracity of the story could be confirmed beyond doubt. It might be worth it to buy the landfill from the council and mine for it if BTC hits €50 K.

tfw when you have to mine the BTC you didn't mind which you've already mined

Truckermal · 06-11-2020 10:30pm

What does Johnnyflash and paddy pintman think?

Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

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