US Presidential Election 2020

Quin_Dub · 02-11-2020 01:18PM

MJohnston wrote: »

As Nate Silver pointed out last week, they also issued a bunch of polls that were funded by partisan groups, and did not disclose this. I suspect they'll get a rating downgrade post-election, and I'd imagine Silver only keeps them in the averages because he likes to include outliers to be as objective as possible.

Watch out for the * beside the poll info on both RCP and 538.

The Asterisk means that it was a poll paid for by one side or the other. Doesn't mean that the polling is wrong , but they are funded by groups directly or indirectly linked to the candidates.

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 01:19PM

Hah right on cue, I see that the only poll out so far today is Trafalgar showing Trump up by 3% in Michigan :pac:

TomOnBoard · 02-11-2020 01:23PM

Water John wrote: »

The logic is that, once a Dem candidate is about +6 they can overcome the differential between the popular vote and the Electoral College.

Ok. I see that.. I have felt that, with polarisation being so massive in US right now, and huge state populations like in California and New York being so pro-Dem, they would skew national figures in such as way as to be misleading. But, if there is a basis for adjusting like you say, then I too relish that national Biden +8 figure..

droidus · 02-11-2020 01:23PM

Ralston's final prediction on Nevada is Biden +4.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/biden-will-win-nevada-blue-wave-should-help-down-ballot

If he's right, that puts NV within about 1 point of the polling average (-1), and probably augurs well for Arizona.

partyguinness · 02-11-2020 01:43PM

I would be more interested in what US voters living in the US have to say.

I was living in the US in 1999 during the run up to the 2000 election. The picture and narrative around Bush (even in NY and Boston) was very different than the left wing bias encountered when I arrived back in Ireland i.e. Bush was came across as a very sensible and electable candidate.

droidus · 02-11-2020 01:45PM

partyguinness wrote: »

I was living in the US in 1999 during the run up to the 2000 election. The picture and narrative around Bush (even in NY and Boston) was very different than the left wing bias encountered when I arrived back in Ireland i.e. Bush was came across as a very sensible and electable candidate.

lol, yeah, and its precisely that attitude that got us in the mess we're in today and now has most of the world regarding the US as a basket case.

partyguinness · 02-11-2020 01:49PM

droidus wrote: »

lol, yeah, and its precisely that attitude that got us in the mess we're in today and now has most of the world regarding the US as a basket case.

Who is "we" and "us" amd whose "attitude" are you referring to?

Sorry are you a US voter?

everlast75 · 02-11-2020 01:55PM

partyguinness wrote: »

I would be more interested in what US voters living in the US have to say.

I was living in the US in 1999 during the run up to the 2000 election. The picture and narrative around Bush (even in NY and Boston) was very different than the left wing bias encountered when I arrived back in Ireland i.e. Bush was came across as a very sensible and electable candidate.

Why are you on an Irish forum where the vast majority of posters are Irish?

droidus · 02-11-2020 02:02PM

partyguinness wrote: »

Who is "we" and "us" amd whose "attitude" are you referring to?

Sorry are you a US voter?

'We' and 'us' is the world, and the 'attitude' is that of American voters who regarded a mentally deficient and deeply incompetent war criminal who stole an election as 'sensible' and 'electable'.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 02:11PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Hah right on cue, I see that the only poll out so far today is Trafalgar showing Trump up by 3% in Michigan :pac:

There have been loads of polls out today!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

partyguinness · 02-11-2020 02:19PM

everlast75 wrote: »

Why are you on an Irish forum where the vast majority of posters are Irish?

Say what now? I am on an Irish forum because I am Irish.

My point is that I would be more interested in hearing more from US poster that may be around here so we get a better picture of the position in the US on the ground.

froog · 02-11-2020 02:20PM

fox news's "The Five" i.e. 4 MAGAs and a Liberal, was utter carnage yesterday. ended up as a very agitated shouting match between gutfeld and williams, both accusing the other side of inciting violence and referencing people murdered during the riots from both sides. it was ugly to watch. hopefully not representative of the wider population but the animosity and downright hatred and mistrust between the opposing sides is so bad right now you would seriously fear for violence after Tuesday.

Quin_Dub · 02-11-2020 02:22PM

538 have put up a view of where each state will be in relation to the vote count on Election night

So really only Florida of the really key states are likely to have anything approaching a result on the night.

partyguinness · 02-11-2020 02:22PM

droidus wrote: »

'We' and 'us' is the world, and the 'attitude' is that of American voters who regarded a mentally deficient and deeply incompetent war criminal who stole an election as 'sensible' and 'electable'.

That type of language is really unhelpful and does not paint you in a very good light. Is that based on your personal and perhaps professional experience of living in the US and your dealing with Bush personally?

Did you think he stole the 2004 election also or what excuse have you for that result?

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 02:22PM

partyguinness wrote: »

Say what now? I am on an Irish forum because I am Irish.

My point is that I would be more interested in hearing more from US poster that may be around here so we get a better picture of the position in the US on the ground.

It might be rather rude and silly to complain about hearing about the opinions of a lot of Irish people on an Irish forum, one might say.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 02:23PM

OMG it finally happened, we got a "Clearly favored" from 538:

UpBack1234 · 02-11-2020 02:26PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

538 have put up a view of where each state will be in relation to the vote count on Election night

So really only Florida of the really key states are likely to have anything approaching a result on the night.

And Florida is likely to be among the most contested, most litigated even at that - Although I think Trump will retain it ultimately.

duploelabs · 02-11-2020 02:26PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

538 have put up a view of where each state will be in relation to the vote count on Election night

So really only Florida of the really key states are likely to have anything approaching a result on the night.

Won't stop the newscasters calling it

partyguinness · 02-11-2020 02:26PM

MJohnston wrote: »

It might be rather rude and silly to complain about hearing about the opinions of a lot of Irish people on an Irish forum, one might say.

Who is complaining?

froog · 02-11-2020 02:28PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

538 have put up a view of where each state will be in relation to the vote count on Election night

So really only Florida of the really key states are likely to have anything approaching a result on the night.

interesting. a florida biden win would be good night trump though.

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 02:29PM

partyguinness wrote: »

Who is complaining?

Who is saying that anyone is complaining? I merely posed a hypothetical

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 02:29PM

MJohnston wrote: »

There have been loads of polls out today!
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Hmm that's odd. I have that page bookmarked and when I checked it earlier the lone poll I saw in there was the Trafalgar one (I even checked to see if I had had the filter on or something)

Nice to see the PA lead holding up with Monmouth

froog · 02-11-2020 02:31PM

slight bump for biden in pennsylvannia the last few days.

UpBack1234 · 02-11-2020 02:31PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Hmm that's odd. I have that page bookmarked and when I checked it earlier the lone poll I saw in there was the Trafalgar one (I even checked to see if I had had the filter on or something)

Nice to see the PA lead holding up with Monmouth

Biden takes PA (or NC or GA) Trump is toast - Florida or no Florida.

droidus · 02-11-2020 02:33PM

partyguinness wrote: »

That type of language is really unhelpful and does not paint you in a very good light. Is that based on your personal and perhaps professional experience of living in the US and your dealing with Bush personally?

Did you think he stole the 2004 election also or what excuse have you for that result?

I don't want to stray off topic, but I hardly think you need to have dealt with Bush personally to have a negative opinion of the man who allowed 911 to happen, killed about a million people in Iraq and destabilized an entire region leading to the formation of ISIS, oversaw a global financial crisis which stemmed from domestic US policies and often had trouble stringing sentences together.

As for the 2000 election and the Florida recount, the history there is well documented for anyone who cares to look, and indeed as some of the personalities involved are now in SCOTUS we may see that precedent repeated.

Brussels Sprout · 02-11-2020 02:33PM

partyguinness wrote: »

I would be more interested in what US voters living in the US have to say.

I was living in the US in 1999 during the run up to the 2000 election. The picture and narrative around Bush (even in NY and Boston) was very different than the left wing bias encountered when I arrived back in Ireland i.e. Bush was came across as a very sensible and electable candidate.

They can't have found him too electable since he lost NY by 25% and Massachusetts by 27%!

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 02:34PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

538 have put up a view of where each state will be in relation to the vote count on Election night

So really only Florida of the really key states are likely to have anything approaching a result on the night.

I posted this a few pages back, along with this more detailed 538 analysis of the Election Night schedule: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/both-candidates-might-fall-short-of-270-electoral-votes-on-election-night-but-how-close-might-they-get/

Essentially — yes it looks like FL might be the only state to have full results by election night, but we're going to also know plenty from NC, GA, and AZ by Wednesday morning. And if the Biden margins in WI and MI are as high as the polling suggests, we could see those become obvious quite early on too.

Quin_Dub · 02-11-2020 02:36PM

duploelabs wrote: »

Won't stop the newscasters calling it

Outside of Fox , I really can't see any other channel "calling it" on the night.

There will be a massive amount of hedging going on.

I suspect that the chyrons will all be very subdued and riddled with caveats etc.

duploelabs · 02-11-2020 02:39PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Outside of Fox , I really can't see any other channel "calling it" on the night.

There will be a massive amount of hedging going on.

I suspect that the chyrons will all be very subdued and riddled with caveats etc.

They've done it consistently on every election night for the past 30 years

MJohnston · 02-11-2020 02:41PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Outside of Fox , I really can't see any other channel "calling it" on the night.

There will be a massive amount of hedging going on.

I suspect that the chyrons will all be very subdued and riddled with caveats etc.

The dumbest, most utterly brainless thing about the GOP this time around is that they've telegraphed almost every single voter suppression technique they're going to use loudly and clearly for weeks.

The last two weeks in particular have ensured that most TV networks will be extremely careful about caveating all of their projections and estimates.

This was such an utterly ****ing stupid move on the part of the Trump campaign that it almost seems like 3D chess. But if they were smart enough to pull that off they wouldn't be working for Trump.

US Presidential Election 2020

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