Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

TheDeep · 28-10-2020 01:12PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Merkel to announce some form of lockdown imminently, as is Macron. Who would have said last May that Europe would be back in lockdowns again less than 6 months later..2020 just doesn't stop shocking us

Bet it won’t be like our “go to work and go home” lockdown though.

Non solum non ambulabit · 28-10-2020 01:12PM

JP100 wrote: »

Another study this time from the University of Edinburgh highlighting how the reopening of schools causes the R transmission rate to surge.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/coronavirus-r-rate-school-closures-lockdown-lancet-study-b1251617.html

Shows what a great job our teachers and schools have done that this hasn't happened in Ireland.

Talk down our schools all you want but they have been excellent. 10 transmission events in over 4000 schools. All while people outside of schools were celebrating county finals and spreading the disease everywhere.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/covid-19-transmitted-in-fewer-than-10-schools-nphet-1.4392706

Widdensushi · 28-10-2020 01:12PM

JP100 wrote: »

I'd say you need to stop embarrassing yourself now. I simply posted a wide ranging study (131 countries) highlighting the effect the reopening of schools had on the R transmission rate. Your response to that was to foam at the mouth about GAA celebrations and the like and all because you simply didn't like what the study was saying in relation to schools.

For every one of these surveys there seems to be an equal but opposite survey just around the corner.

is_that_so · 28-10-2020 01:15PM

OwenM wrote: »

Has any methodology been published by NPHET for their R number publications? Not in general, but how they arrived at the numbers they have published.

They list off 4 of them any time they present data modelling.

https://www.ucd.ie/research/covid19response/news/irishepidemiologicalmodellingadvisorygrouptonphet/

fits · 28-10-2020 01:15PM

5 ICU admissions and one discharge this morning. 41 in ICU now. God help them.

Non solum non ambulabit · 28-10-2020 01:18PM

JP100 wrote: »

The above will of course have its own effect but this study and along with an ever increasing number of studies highlights the key role played by schools in enabling transmission rates to thrive and surge.

It's funny that the same people cheering on NPHET are the one that believe NPHET are lying on schools.

Non solum non ambulabit · 28-10-2020 01:20PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Cavan must have the most number of schools in the country. If one were to believe some people on here!

Waterford must have closed all their schools too.

Non solum non ambulabit · 28-10-2020 01:24PM

JP100 wrote: »

I'd say you need to stop embarrassing yourself now. I simply posted a wide ranging study (131 countries) highlighting the effect the reopening of schools had on the R transmission rate. Your response to that was to foam at the mouth about GAA celebrations and the like and all because you simply didn't like what the study was saying in relation to schools.

NPHET have produced Irish data that you willfully ignore.

Show me the data from Ireland contradicting NPHET and lets have a fact based conversation.

JP100 · 28-10-2020 01:31PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Shows what a great job our teachers and schools have done that this hasn't happened in Ireland.

Talk down our schools all you want but they have been excellent. 10 transmission events in over 4000 schools. All while people outside of schools were celebrating county finals and spreading the disease everywhere.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus/covid-19-transmitted-in-fewer-than-10-schools-nphet-1.4392706

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

NPHET have produced Irish data that you willfully ignore.

Show me the data from Ireland contradicting NPHET and lets have a fact based conversation.

Another poster here who is very triggered and throwing their toys out of their pram because they don't like what a particular research study highlights in relation to schools. You only want to read the things you like and not bother with the things you don't like. Well done you!

Non solum non ambulabit · 28-10-2020 01:38PM

JP100 wrote: »

Another poster here who is very triggered and throwing their toys out of their pram because they don't like what a particular research study highlights in relation to schools. You only want to read the things you like and not bother with the things you don't like. Well done you!

Enough with the attitude.

I listen to NPHET. You don't like that the Irish data is not showing transmission in schools so you search the internet for an international study.

Produce Irish data and I will listen to you.

28-10-2020 01:38PM

JP100 wrote: »

Another poster here who is very triggered and throwing their toys out of their pram because they don't like what a particular research study highlights in relation to schools. You only want to read the things you like and not bother with the things you don't like. Well done you!

How about this one?

https://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2020/shutting-schools-increases-covid-19-deaths-study-f

Boggles · 28-10-2020 01:39PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Talk down our schools all you want but they have been excellent. 10 transmission events in over 4000 schools.

Same as pubs, according to the "data".

Open the pubs?

quokula · 28-10-2020 01:39PM

JP100 wrote: »

I'd say you need to stop embarrassing yourself now. I simply posted a wide ranging study (131 countries) highlighting the effect the reopening of schools had on the R transmission rate. Your response to that was to foam at the mouth about GAA celebrations and the like and all because you simply didn't like what the study was saying in relation to schools.

The actual direct data that has been gathered in Ireland suggests otherwise.

Among the 131 countries will be many where hygiene and distancing in schools may not be observed as thoroughly as here, and testing regimes will also vary vastly, which is important as it stops people with covid coming into school in the first place. I'm not saying Ireland is world beating, but in terms of tests per capita for example, we're 19th in the world which puts us well ahead of most of the 131. There may be other, cultural differences for many countries too. That's just one theory, but the point is generalised data over many countries doesn't override accurate data for this country.

We have to go by what the evidence tells us, and right now there has been minimal evidence of transmissions in schools in Ireland. Maybe more research is required, maybe there is no transmission in schools but the fact that they are open means more parents are gathering for chats at the school gates and transmission happens there, or other secondary effects. But as of right now, the evidence currently points to schools being relatively safe. As restrictions kick in we're starting to see the number of cases reduce, while schools are still open, which in itself suggests it's safe for them to remain. This might change over winter if colder weather means more closed windows and less ventilation, we can't say for sure.

It's not a matter of opinion or of ideology, and neither the Irish data or the International data is wrong. They can be different, that's why we keep measuring things. The point is that we should look at the evidence and base decisions on that. Which is what the government is doing right now.

Boggles · 28-10-2020 01:41PM

Deleted User wrote: »

How about this one?

https://www.ed.ac.uk/news/2020/shutting-schools-increases-covid-19-deaths-study-f

Simulated?

Cool.

JP100 · 28-10-2020 01:45PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Enough with the attitude.

I listen to NPHET. You don't like that the Irish data is not showing transmission in schools so you search the internet for an international study.

Similar to a number of other posters in this thread, you're very triggered by the research referenced. I know you and others here do not like the contents of the University of Edinburgh research across 131 countries and that you think that Ireland is a very special special place whereby the virus makes the decision to behave differently as it now knows it's here in Ireland - so in light of all that, I suggest you just keep on trucking and continue to only read the things you like and not bother with all the other stuff you don't like. Best for your blood pressure, methinks.

28-10-2020 01:46PM

Boggles wrote: »

Simulated?

Cool.

You should get on the the BMJ to ask them to retract the study then see as you can evaluate the relevance of studies much better than they can

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588

28-10-2020 01:52PM

JP100 wrote: »

Similar to a number of other posters in this thread, you're very triggered by the research referenced. I know you and others here do not like the contents of the University of Edinburgh research across 131 countries and that you think that Ireland is a very special special place whereby the virus makes the decision to behave differently as it now knows it's here in Ireland - so in light of all that, I suggest you just keep on trucking and continue to only read the things you like and not bother with all the other stuff you don't like. Best for your blood pressure, methinks.

I trust you will read the below - Germany, Norway, WHO, ECDC...

https://www.theweek.co.uk/108447/schools-do-not-spread-coronavirus-study

https://www.fhi.no/nyheter/2020/lite-smitte-i-barnehage-og-skole/

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13790

a study conducted by the Norwegian National Institute of Public Health which found that infection rarely spreads from child to child, and that “the most common route of transmission to children and pupils is from adults in their household”
a report from Germany’s Institute of Labor Economics, which says that “school re-openings in Germany under strict hygiene measures combined with quarantine and containment measures have not increased the number of newly confirmed Sars-CoV-2 infections”
two reviews of data from countries across the world, conducted by the World Health Organization and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, which both “concluded that most children do not develop symptoms and there is little evidence of transmission in schools”, says the FT.

Boggles · 28-10-2020 01:54PM

Deleted User wrote: »

You should get on the the BMJ to ask them to retract the study then see as you can evaluate the relevance of studies much better than they can

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588

It's not very hard to get BMJ to throw a "study" up on one of their servers, I have all ready explained that to you.

It's what they do.

Has it been peer reviewed?

Can you peer review a simulation?

JP100 · 28-10-2020 01:57PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I trust you will read the below - Germany, Norway, WHO, ECDC...

https://www.theweek.co.uk/108447/schools-do-not-spread-coronavirus-study

https://www.fhi.no/nyheter/2020/lite-smitte-i-barnehage-og-skole/

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13790

Well done to you too as well on picking the things you do like and then also ignoring anything else you don't like. You're consistent if nothing else.

28-10-2020 01:57PM

Boggles wrote: »

It's not very hard to get BMJ to throw a "study" up on one of their servers, I have all ready explained that to you.

It's what they do.

Has it been peer reviewed?

Can you peer review a simulation?

Is not hard to find

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588/peer-review

Boggles knows best

Sconsey · 28-10-2020 02:00PM

JP100 wrote: »

Similar to a number of other posters in this thread, you're very triggered by the research referenced. I know you and others here do not like the contents of the University of Edinburgh research across 131 countries and that you think that Ireland is a very special special place whereby the virus makes the decision to behave differently as it now knows it's here in Ireland - so in light of all that, I suggest you just keep on trucking and continue to only read the things you like and not bother with all the other stuff you don't like. Best for your blood pressure, methinks.

FFS can you not make a point without the stupid attempts at insults...'foaming at the mouth', 'triggered'. I stop reading when I see this kind of crap, it does nothing for your argument, just makes me think you have very little of consequence to say.

28-10-2020 02:00PM

JP100 wrote: »

Well done to you too as well on picking the things you do like and then also ignoring anything else you don't like. You're consistent if nothing else.

My god, the hypocrisy is stunning. At least I have read the Edinburgh paper. You seem to suggest the the Edinburgh study is some sort of proof of the same effect occuring globally. While there are studies from Norway and Germany which suggest otherwise, as well as the WHO and ECDC

Boggles · 28-10-2020 02:04PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Is not hard to find

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3588/peer-review

Boggles knows best

Oh dear, not great reviews.

It is an unusual paper for us since it is not "research"

None of us could understand the methods you had used

Boggles · 28-10-2020 02:06PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I trust you will read the below - Germany, Norway, WHO, ECDC...

https://www.theweek.co.uk/108447/schools-do-not-spread-coronavirus-study

https://www.fhi.no/nyheter/2020/lite-smitte-i-barnehage-og-skole/

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13790

“more than 400,000 children in England were off school last week for coronavirus-related reasons”, and some schools have been forced to close.

Wales and Scotland have also been wrestling with the problem of outbreaks in schools.

The Welsh government has announced that older pupils will not return to classes during the country’s two-week “firebreak” lockdown, which begins on Friday.

Weird really.

28-10-2020 02:08PM

Boggles wrote: »

Oh dear, not great reviews.

Forever taking stuff out of context in the hope that others will take it at face value.

Thank you for sending us your paper. We sent it for external peer review and discussed it at our
manuscript committee meeting. It is an unusual paper for us since it is not "research" in the sense of
testing a hypothesis with a study design that collects new data. Neither is it a traditional discussion of
ideas such as mighgt be seen in the "Analysis" section. We have for some time been contempating a
new section in the journal specifically for papers that present a lot of data or have complex methods yet
are not research as such. After some discussion we would like to launch the section with your paper if
you are able to revise as suggested below. I'm sorry this has resulted in some delay to the decison
letter for your paper.

And the second comment you chose for completeness

None of us could understand the methods you had used. It is important for the readership to be able
to understand what you have done. Please describe a) the steps or components that made up the
original epidemic model and then b) what you have done to mimic this model so as to look back at what
would have been available at the time in question. This description need not be technically complete
(though that could appear in an appendix or a data repository) but should describe the concepts such
that a "lay" medical person could understand broadly what was done and a modeller skilled in the art
could have a very good idea of how to repeat your study.

Boggles · 28-10-2020 02:13PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Forever taking stuff out of context in the hope that others will take it at face value.

Point remains.

It's not research, it's a simulator.

Kh1993 · 28-10-2020 02:17PM

Sconsey wrote: »

FFS can you not make a point without the stupid attempts at insults...'foaming at the mouth', 'triggered'. I stop reading when I see this kind of crap, it does nothing for your argument, just makes me think you have very little of consequence to say.

Absolutely. There’s a good few posters looking for a “gotcha” moment with regards to schools. They won’t be happy til there’s a massive amount of cases in schools and they have to close. Then they’ll say “I told you so”.

It’s quite strange to see so many people want to close down schools. You’d suspect an ulterior motive but maybe that’s getting into conspiracy theory territory.

PowerToWait · 28-10-2020 02:19PM

Paddygreen wrote: »

Great interview on Radio One yesterday evening outlining how all is white people are racist by default, inherently racist. The interviewer was brimming with agreement. Rte provides us with an absolutely fantastic service. Even though the death and misery numbers are important space needs to be made for discussion about issues like our white privilege and how us honkeys are destroying the planet.

You could just switch over to something else, maybe some Jim Davidson, he's got some YouTube rants I think you'd enjoy.

Boggles · 28-10-2020 02:20PM

Kh1993 wrote: »

Absolutely. There’s a good few posters looking for a “gotcha” moment with regards to schools. They won’t be happy til there’s a massive amount of cases in schools and they have to close. Then they’ll say “I told you so”.

It’s quite strange to see so many people want to close down schools. You’d suspect an ulterior motive but maybe that’s getting into conspiracy theory territory.

Indeed.

MelbourneMan · 28-10-2020 02:22PM

Kh1993 wrote: »

Absolutely. There’s a good few posters looking for a “gotcha” moment with regards to schools. They won’t be happy til there’s a massive amount of cases in schools and they have to close. Then they’ll say “I told you so”.

It’s quite strange to see so many people want to close down schools. You’d suspect an ulterior motive but maybe that’s getting into conspiracy theory territory.

Hello. The focus on schools is a moot subject, and the interest it garners is baffling and not relevant to the management of the crisis. To clarify : it is certain that virus transmission in happening in school settings. But it is not any overwhelming factor in the spread of the virus in the community, and well below a level that would be deemed strong enough to suggest closure of schools was a necessary containment step. For the greater understanding, reduction of unnecessary worry of students, parents, and teachers, a shelving of this topic would be to the overall benefit of all. Focusing on limiting social contacts, hand washing discipline, and mask wearing are the key needed actions at this time. Concern about schools distracts from these key actions. (Moderators, perhaps this post could be made a permanent link, which would save other posters from confusion on this topic ?)

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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