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Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 498 ✭✭JP100


    is_that_so wrote: »
    So not house parties, communions, funerals nor GAA celebrations?

    The above will of course have its own effect but this study and along with an ever increasing number of studies highlights the key role played by schools in enabling transmission rates to thrive and surge.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 713 ✭✭✭manniot2


    i dont understand the talk on here about level 3 working or not working, level 5 working etc. its as if these levels are as scientfic as the levels of dosage given to a sick patient. its the behaviour at each level that is important. i think a strictly enforced level 2 for the next 6-12 months would be the most balanced and proportionate approach. would give everyone certaintly which is crucial to our economy. would still be quite restrictive by the way.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    odyssey06 wrote: »
    Both.

    Children’s return to classrooms was followed by an average 24-per-cent rise in the R transmission number, University of Edinburgh researchers found after analysing data from 131 countries. The only other measure linked to a higher increase in the rate is lifting a ban on groups gathering, which led to a 25-per-cent rise in R.
    Yeah, but we can actually see how ours came about through the superpreader examples we've seen and the GAA post-match celebrations. The HSE still maintain that it's getting into schools from the community and that there are very few cases spreading from schools.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    JP100 wrote: »
    The above will of course have its own effect but this study and along with an ever increasing number of studies highlights the key role played by schools in enabling transmission rates to thrive and surge.
    How big is ever increasing? Pre school return they said there was very little research but what there was showed a very low risk.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 125 ✭✭AnniePowwa


    lawred2 wrote: »
    and we'll have adults everywhere acting like toddlers

    any one us might not have another second on this planet let alone another christmas , the government can **** off if they think they can stop families getting together at most important time of the year


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  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I think he really needs to keep it up, relentlessly. Every person that becomes more cautious as a result, is, as he says, a move in the right direction.

    I disagree. Its like a broken record that is scratching and winding up the listener. Everyone who is going to be cautious is already being cautious. Those who are not being cautious are not going to change now because of Tony. It's not like we don't all know what the situation is.

    I think his lecturing is more likely at this stage to turn people against him and ignore the restrictions because he is just becoming a wind-up.

    The narrative and news is the same EVERY SINGLE DAY, emphasised by the COVID porn available EVERY EVENING on RTE. At best it is annoying white noise, at worst it makes me want to just say "screw it"


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,833 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    AnniePowwa wrote: »
    any one us might not have another second on this planet let alone another christmas , the government can **** off if they think they can stop families getting together at most important time of the year

    might not be just de gubbermint - might be your neighbours who are choosing to refrain from get togethers... they'll appreciate your steadfast resolution


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    lawred2 wrote: »
    might not be just de gubbermint - might be your neighbours who are choosing to refrain from get togethers... they'll appreciate your steadfast resolution

    Perhaps if you live somewhere like Stepford.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 498 ✭✭JP100


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Yeah, but we can actually see how ours came about through the superpreader examples we've seen and the GAA post-match celebrations. The HSE still maintain that it's getting into schools from the community and that there are very few cases spreading from schools.

    You just want to keep talking about the GAA in order to side track people and muddy the waters. The study I referenced is based on data from 131 countries. So that pretty much moots your argument about GAA celebrations. We are also not some special special place here in Ireland whereby the virus makes the decision to behave differently because it knows it's here in Ireland now!

    The fact of the matter is the wide ranging study I referenced pin points how the reopening of schools caused the R transmission rate to surge across a wide range of countries. Deal with that issue on its own merit, instead of your constant spinning and side tracking on here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭Paddygreen


    polesheep wrote: »
    Everybody has a point where they make their own decisions regarding restrictions and shun Holohan's 'advice'.

    A bit like Judas Iscariot. I bet you would have shunned Jesus too. Dr Tony is the keystone that is holding this country back from mass graves and white vans full of body bags.I know we don’t have a King but if we ever do it should be MrT. If only someone could push Trotsky’s leprechaun down the stairs to make space for Tony and a throne, and his entourage.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    JP100 wrote: »
    You just want to keep talking about the GAA in order to side track people and muddy the waters. The study I referenced is based on data from 131 countries. So that pretty much moots your argument about GAA celebrations. The fact of the matter is the wide ranging study I referenced pin points how the reopening of schools caused the R transmission rate to surge across a wide range of countries. Deal with that issue on its own merit, instead of your constant spinning on here.
    As I mentioned to another poster we're all afflicted with confirmation bias about this! The GAA post match effect is big in Galway, Cavan, Cork, Meath and parts of Louth at least. Anyway agreeing to disagree here and moving on now.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Paddygreen wrote: »
    A bit like Judas Iscariot. I bet you would have shunned Jesus too. Dr Tony is the keystone that is holding this country back from mass graves and white vans full of body bags.I know we don’t have a King but if we ever do it should be MrT. If only someone could push Trotsky’s leprechaun down the stairs to make space for Tony and a throne, and his entourage.

    I pity the fool who doesnt follow Mr T's guidance

    mr+t.jpg


  • Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Paddygreen wrote: »
    A bit like Judas Iscariot. I bet you would have shunned Jesus too. Dr Tony is the keystone that is holding this country back from mass graves and white vans full of body bags.I know we don’t have a King but if we ever do it should be MrT. If only someone could push Trotsky’s leprechaun down the stairs to make space for Tony and a throne, and his entourage.

    He is the Eochaid mac Eirc of our time, and songs will be written


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,833 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    I disagree. Its like a broken record that is scratching and winding up the listener. Everyone who is going to be cautious is already being cautious. Those who are not being cautious are not going to change now because of Tony. It's not like we don't all know what the situation is.

    I think his lecturing is more likely at this stage to turn people against him and ignore the restrictions because he is just becoming a wind-up.

    The narrative and news is the same EVERY SINGLE DAY, emphasised by the COVID porn available EVERY EVENING on RTE. At best it is annoying white noise, at worst it makes me want to just say "screw it"

    I was thinking something like this last night when I happened to see Tony on again wittering on about Halloween and how everyone loves nothing better than to see trick or treatin...

    100% agree that the daily NPHET conferences are completely over the top...

    Circulate the numbers and let that be that. Why the daily pressers?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    lawred2 wrote: »
    I was thinking something like this last night when I happened to see Tony on again wittering on about Halloween and how everyone loves nothing better than to see trick or treatin...

    100% agree that the daily NPHET conferences are completely over the top...

    Circulate the numbers and let that be that. Why the daily pressers?
    It's now twice a week and they do circulate the numbers otherwise.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 498 ✭✭JP100


    is_that_so wrote: »
    As I mentioned to another poster we're all afflicted with confirmation bias about this! The GAA post match effect is big in Galway, Cavan, Cork, Meath and parts of Louth at least. Anyway agreeing to disagree here and moving on now.

    I'd say you need to stop embarrassing yourself now. I simply posted a wide ranging study (131 countries) highlighting the effect the reopening of schools had on the R transmission rate. Your response to that was to foam at the mouth about GAA celebrations and the like and all because you simply didn't like what the study was saying in relation to schools.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭Paddygreen


    He is the Eochaid mac Eirc of our time, and songs will be written

    He has a face like Nero, it would look great cast in bronze. If he was around 100 years ago he would have consumed the English with fireballs from his eyes and bolts of lightning from his arse. Or maybe he would have helped them, hard to tell, either way he would have been right.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    JP100 wrote: »
    I'd say you need to stop embarrassing yourself now. I simply posted a wide ranging study (131 countries) highlighting the effect the reopening of schools had on the R transmission rate. Your response to that was to foam at the mouth about GAA celebrations and the like and all because you simply didn't like what the study was saying in relation to schools.
    And I responded, without all the hissy drama, that the HSE assert that it's not a big factor and that there are other more important factors and we move on. Take it up with them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,833 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    is_that_so wrote: »
    It's now twice a week and they do circulate the numbers otherwise.

    well that's something

    maybe RTE just keep replaying them


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,224 ✭✭✭zerosugarbuzz


    Paddygreen wrote: »
    He has a face like Nero, it would look great cast in bronze. If he was around 100 years ago he would have consumed the English with fireballs from his eyes and bolts of lightning from his arse. Or maybe he would have helped them, hard to tell, either way he would have been right.

    A face like shreck more like if you imagine him green


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  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,833 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


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    when did the Pubs open? Pretty much the same time you're picking out.

    how can you zone in on GAA when the pubs were opened nationwide (Dublin apart) on Sep 21st?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 716 ✭✭✭Paddygreen


    lawred2 wrote: »
    well that's something

    maybe RTE just keep replaying them

    Great interview on Radio One yesterday evening outlining how all is white people are racist by default, inherently racist. The interviewer was brimming with agreement. Rte provides us with an absolutely fantastic service. Even though the death and misery numbers are important space needs to be made for discussion about issues like our white privilege and how us honkeys are destroying the planet.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


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    Where do the calculations for the first graph come from? Is that the R number and what it's estimated to be?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 498 ✭✭JP100


    is_that_so wrote: »
    And I responded, without all the hissy drama, that the HSE assert that it's not a big factor and that there are other more important factors and we move on. Take it up with them.

    You didn't respond, and exactly the same as the government and the HSE, you just went in to spin mode instead and talked about everything and anything except dealing with what the research I referenced was directly saying about schools. End off.


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    lawred2 wrote: »
    when did the Pubs open? Pretty much the same time you're picking out.

    how can you zone in on GAA when the pubs were opened nationwide (Dublin apart) on Sep 21st?

    Because there were known issues with the Cavan football and Galway football and hurling finals, and there was a massive kick in the data for both countries within 5-7 days of the games


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,634 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


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    Cavan must have the most number of schools in the country. If one were to believe some people on here!


  • Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Stheno wrote: »
    Where do the calculations for the first graph come from? Is that the R number and what it's estimated to be?

    Its the difference in the 14 day incidence rate when compared to 7 days earlier. The R0 is not published frequently, but I believe it is a good indicator, however it probably lags a bit behind as I believe they model off changes in the 5 day average not 14 day.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,513 ✭✭✭bb1234567


    Merkel to announce some form of lockdown imminently, as is Macron. Who would have said last May that Europe would be back in lockdowns again less than 6 months later..2020 just doesn't stop shocking us


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 860 ✭✭✭OwenM


    Its the difference in the 14 day incidence rate when compared to 7 days earlier. The R0 is not published frequently, but I believe it is a good indicator, however it probably lags a bit behind as I believe they model off changes in the 5 day average not 14 day.

    Has any methodology been published by NPHET for their R number publications? Not in general, but how they arrived at the numbers they have published.


This discussion has been closed.
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