Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

bb1234567 · 26-10-2020 11:43PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Telegraph have story on potential immunity given by any vaccine. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1320855385385873408?s=19

I think that the huge cases in places like Madrid pointed to this being the case..Madrid had huge excess deaths, 0.3% of the city's population, surely a large proportion of the city was infected last Spring if we are to believe the IFR is in the range of 0.5-0.6%..must be many people becoming reinfected to see such massive growth of cases again since September onward

Non solum non ambulabit · 26-10-2020 11:45PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Telegraph have story on potential immunity given by any vaccine. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1320855385385873408?s=19

Did it mention T-cell immunity in the article? That's our primary defense.

igCorcaigh · 26-10-2020 11:49PM

Stheno wrote: »

You're not overreacting.

I rang the out of hours doc weeks ago to get advice as my oh suddenly came down with a hacking constant cough and apologised and they said it was absolutely the right thing to do

He tested negative or no virus detected as the tomorrow. text said

I usually might need my inhaler during the hay-fever season. But today it came up. I don't know.

I'll see how i feel tomorrow.

hmmm · 26-10-2020 11:54PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Telegraph have story on potential immunity given by any vaccine.

Scare-mongering, it would have to be the Telegraph.

We have no idea how long natural immunity lasts, or vaccine immunity, and the majority of experts in this area say that they expect reinfections (if they happen) will be milder for people with normal immune systems.

We know that patients with SARS1 have memory t-cells of the virus 17 years later.

Jinglejangle69 · 26-10-2020 11:57PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

That Irish study with spread on a plane has gone international. Added to the corpus of evidence of infection on planes at this stage. Again this is not the main issue. It's when people get off the plane. Never the less our own public health professionals and the National Virus Reference Laboratory lab should be commended for going where no politician would dare. Hopefully they don't face any consequences for not toeing the party line. It may not be China but people have been disappeared professionally here when big business have been reported on in the past.

@WhistleIRL springs to mind.

https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1320822529821495297?s=20

But travel only accounts for 2%.

It was the schools were told.

bb1234567 · 27-10-2020 12:01AM

Israel's robust testing system likely gives the best indicator of COVID IFR so far

Israel tested 50% of it's population of 9 million and 3.5% of the population tested positive.

2453 deaths/310,851 infections

IFR of 0.78%

Bahrain also tested almost 100% of it's population of 1. 7 million

316 deaths/80,500 infections

IFR 0.4%

Bahrain Media age 32 years
Israel median age 30 years

Israeli hospitals were overwhelmed though.

Bahrain is a monarch with strong widespread media/political censorship and limited freedom for citizen's so take it as you will but it's interesting at least
So I think we can say with confidence now the IFR is about 0.4/0.5 when hospitals are coping and 0.8%+ when hospitals are overwhelmed. Many antibody studies have indicated figures in this range but the test results in these countries further reinforce

Unfortunately for us in European Union with median age in the mid fourties it means IFr is certainly above 1% if COVID spreading uncontrolled with older people not isolating and would be 2 million + deaths.

Andorra is a pretty tiny sample with 72 deaths/4325 cases giving an IFR of 1.75%..but they have tested their entire population two times over so it may give an indication of the IFR in an old European country. Andorra has a median age of 45 years, similar to Itaaly and Spain...a lot older than Ireland

quokula · 27-10-2020 12:09AM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

But travel only accounts for 2%.

It was the schools were told.

59 cases is about 2% of 3 days worth of infections. So hard to draw any conclusion one way or another from that one example.

Nobotty · 27-10-2020 12:18AM

https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1320797836699701249?s=19

froog · 27-10-2020 12:20AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Israel's robust testing system likely gives the best indicator of COVID IFR so far

Israel tested 50% of it's population of 9 million and 3.5% of the population tested positive.

2453 deaths/310,851 infections

IFR of 0.78%

Bahrain also tested almost 100% of it's population of 1. 7 million

316 deaths/80,500 infections

IFR 0.4%

Bahrain Media age 32 years
Israel median age 30 years

Israeli hospitals were overwhelmed though.
So I think we can say with confidence now the IFR is about 0.4/0.5 when hospitals are coping and 0.8%+ when hospitals are overwhelmed. Many antibody studies have indicated figures in this range but the test results in these countries further reinforce

Unfortunately for us in European Union with median age in the mid fourties it means IFr is certainly above 1% if COVID spreading uncontrolled with older people not isolating and would be 2 million + deaths

good data there. people will use those IFR figures to play down the virus unfortunately. it's still 4-8 times deadlier than the flu, at least twice as infectious (and probably more than that) and we have no widespread immunity or vaccine. it's a very serious virus.

Leftwaffe · 27-10-2020 12:22AM

hmmm wrote: »

Scare-mongering, it would have to be the Telegraph.

We have no idea how long natural immunity lasts, or vaccine immunity, and the majority of experts in this area say that they expect reinfections (if they happen) will be milder for people with normal immune systems.

We know that patients with SARS1 have memory t-cells of the virus 17 years later.

The headline is misleading. The study didn't examine the role of t cells which are apparently just as important in fighting covid. It also says that vaccines might give a stronger immune response than natural immunity.

Really is scare mongering.

SeaBreezes · 27-10-2020 12:26AM

hmmm wrote: »

Scare-mongering, it would have to be the Telegraph.

We have no idea how long natural immunity lasts, or vaccine immunity, and the majority of experts in this area say that they expect reinfections (if they happen) will be milder for people with normal immune systems.

We know that patients with SARS1 have memory t-cells of the virus 17 years later.

Its a completely different virus. Both in how it 'hides' from Tcells and ages them 5-10 years.

Definately a worry.

SeaBreezes · 27-10-2020 12:26AM

https://twitter.com/NaomiOhReally/status/1320797836699701249?s=20

SeaBreezes · 27-10-2020 12:29AM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Thanks. I'll see how i feel tomorrow. I would feel stupid for overreacting and taking up resources.
Im going to stay at home. Ive only been out for shopping anyway.

Best of luck!!

caveat emptor · 27-10-2020 12:31AM

Interesting perspective from Irish Public Health Doctor in Australia.
Breaks down exactly how they did it and can compare directly to Ireland as worked there too.

Arghus · 27-10-2020 12:40AM

hmmm wrote: »

Scare-mongering, it would have to be the Telegraph.

We have no idea how long natural immunity lasts, or vaccine immunity, and the majority of experts in this area say that they expect reinfections (if they happen) will be milder for people with normal immune systems.

We know that patients with SARS1 have memory t-cells of the virus 17 years later.

I bought a subscription to the Telegraph - it wasn't that pricey - just to get the opposing view on things like Brexit etc. I don't agree with any of it, but I thought it's good to see things from the other side too, even if you don't agree. But I find myself amazed at how truly mental it actually is on just about everything: they're totally deluded! I find myself laughing at the impeccably myopic and reactionary nonsense - but then I remember that this is an approximation of how the UK establishment sees the world.

Right now their headline article is "Boris and Co won’t get away with threatening our Christmas"

stephenjmcd · 27-10-2020 12:53AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Telegraph have story on potential immunity given by any vaccine. https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1320855385385873408?s=19

The anti body response in vaccine trials so far has proven stronger than in those who actually got covid.

I'm sure its factored into the trials, data & on going research around multiple vaccines.

T Cells also get a mention there in that article and they appear to be a key target, Oxford for example have so far proven a robust T Cell response

caveat emptor · 27-10-2020 12:55AM

Wow Leo on a positive note comparing us to Israel. Not a valid comparison, mush more strict there.

1 km distance from home
Schools closed
Christmas cancelled (Yom Kippur)

If I had to guess maybe we are being primed for an extended school closure. Why else make an invalid comparison? Who knows at this stage. :rolleyes:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54278293

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1320822159153991680?s=20

MOR316 · 27-10-2020 12:57AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Wow Leo on a positive note comparing us to Israel. Not a valid comparison, mush more strict there.
1 km distance from home

Schools closed

Christmas cancelled (Yom Kippur)

If I had to guess maybe we are being primed for an extended school closure. Why else make an invalid comparison? Who knows at this stage. :rolleyes:

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1320822159153991680?s=20

Throw. Sh*t. Wall. Sticks

Loafing Oaf · 27-10-2020 01:11AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Wow Leo on a positive note comparing us to Israel. Not a valid comparison, mush more strict there.

While our mush is proper mush:D

SeaBreezes · 27-10-2020 01:14AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Wow Leo on a positive note comparing us to Israel. Not a valid comparison, mush more strict there.
1 km distance from home

Schools closed

Christmas cancelled (Yom Kippur)

If I had to guess maybe we are being primed for an extended school closure. Why else make an invalid comparison? Who knows at this stage. :rolleyes:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54278293

https://twitter.com/LeoVaradkar/status/1320822159153991680?s=20

Yeah, he was holding Belgium up as an example to be followed a few weeks ago. Now the sh*t has hit the fan there hes changing country as best example to follow..

https://twitter.com/williamhboney1/status/1320774636079140864?s=20

Strumms · 27-10-2020 01:16AM

GT89 wrote: »

That's like saying Gardai should have a say in how laws are made

It’s nothing of the same at all, but you already know this.

bb1234567 · 27-10-2020 01:40AM

164 deaths in Czech Rep today..looking like the new field hospital in Prague is going to get busy anyway. This is the same number of deaths per capita that Italy and Spain reported at their very peak, CZ is nowhere close to a peak yet however.

CZ will suffer many more deaths above the European average because there is not the same caution instilled in the population as occurred in the rest of Europe in April. I saw a news report in prague today, random citizens seemed relatively unphased during interviews and pretty much business as usual, Czech GP's seemed alarmed by the total disregard citizens were showing toward the seriousness of the situation

FintanMcluskey · 27-10-2020 02:31AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

164 deaths in Czech Rep today..looking like the new field hospital in Prague is going to get busy anyway. This is the same number of deaths per capita that Italy and Spain reported at their very peak, CZ is nowhere close to a peak yet however.

CZ will suffer many more deaths above the European average because there is not the same caution instilled in the population as occurred in the rest of Europe in April. I saw a news report in prague today, random citizens seemed relatively unphased during interviews and pretty much business as usual, Czech GP's seemed alarmed by the total disregard citizens were showing toward the seriousness of the situation

CZ were the poster boy of Europe early on for the early hard lockdown of my memory serves me correctly.

CZ never had the first wave, and with a highly transmissible virus that discriminately targets old vulnerable people and causes a sharp spike in deaths of those people in a short space of time, it doesn’t look good for the next month or so in CZ.

On the bolded part, why is that surprising? Were lockdowns thought to be perpetually adhered to last March?

The life of a working class man/woman has become work/go home. Rinse repeat. The working class have **** all motivation to go to work if that all life will become for the next few years

jams100 · 27-10-2020 03:00AM

If you want a laugh between all the negativity and bleakness that covid brings I'd recommend Callans kicks podcast, might give a few people a laugh in these depressing times. (His George Lee impression is bang on the money).

SeaBreezes · 27-10-2020 03:45AM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

CZ were the poster boy of Europe early on for the early hard lockdown of my memory serves me correctly.

CZ never had the first wave, and with a highly transmissible virus that discriminately targets old vulnerable people and causes a sharp spike in deaths of those people in a short space of time, it doesn’t look good for the next month or so in CZ.

On the bolded part, why is that surprising? Were lockdowns thought to be perpetually adhered to last March?

The life of a working class man/woman has become work/go home. Rinse repeat. The working class have **** all motivation to go to work if that all life will become for the next few years

Yes but its 8 months later. Many many more will be saved by the knowledge acquired in that time.

And honestly, my life, work and go home, hasnt changed a huge amount. The joys of parenthood perhaps.

But not socialising for a year and saving lives? Sounds like a no-brainer to me.

The people suffering the most are the frontliners, and the business owners. And it sucks. Absolutely. But countries that dont lockdown, economically suffered worse, with higher mortality rates and no governmemt assist for the businesses. Its a no win situation.

mandrake04 · 27-10-2020 06:11AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Interesting perspective from Irish Public Health Doctor in Australia.
Breaks down exactly how they did it and can compare directly to Ireland as worked there too.

Interesting video, thanks.

The mandatory quarantine already be done to death on here, but from experience I agree with most of his other points which I have posted here before.

Strength of Australian health system and testing, also busting all the PCR testing myths and why they dont use antigen testing.

Why the Melbourne lockdown was harsh but necessary, was more to do with hunting down the virus rather than hiding from it.

The only comment I didnt agree with was on schools, I think they closed schools in QLD for a few weeks and of course Victoria but NSW and I think the other states schools never closed.

amadangomor · 27-10-2020 08:53AM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I usually might need my inhaler during the hay-fever season. But today it came up. I don't know.

I'll see how i feel tomorrow.

I had a respiratory infection in March that has given me asthma. Wasn't tested then as there was no capacity.

Had the tight chest thing at the time. Ring your doctor this morning. I think the tight chest thing will be enough for the doctor to send you for a test.

Best to get his/her opinion with what you already have, never mind how you will feel now in the morning

amadangomor · 27-10-2020 08:57AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Varadkar is a complete and utter muppet. No adequate comparison to be made with the schools still open here and tourists hopping off the plane. A half-arsed and ineffectual lockdown that could extend for months, hammering the retail and hospitality sectors into the ground mercilessly. Instead of tanking the economy with little end product, let sanity prevail by returning to level three. We're stuck with the virus whether we like it or not until a vaccine is circulated widely, an uneasy co-existence but unavoidable in the short to medium term. Compromises must be made before protests break out by business owners & workers fed up of being unfairly targeted.

We could have stayed on level three if the minority that are reckless behaved.

iamwhoiam · 27-10-2020 09:06AM

Does anybody actually understand the logic behind closing the clothes end of Dunnes and Tesco etc ? Why is it more dangerous to buy a pair of PJs than it is to buy a bag of spuds .? I genuinely cannot figure it out .In the first lockdown at least we could buy a blessed T shirt if we needed it

BobbyMalone · 27-10-2020 09:09AM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Does anybody actually understand the logic behind closing the clothes end of Dunnes and Tesco etc ? Why is it more dangerous to buy a pair of PJs than it is to buy a bag of spuds .? I genuinely cannot figure it out .In the first lockdown at least we could buy a blessed T shirt if we needed it

It seems to be explained (in the UK anyway) as being an attempt to make it 'fairer' on shops that only sell clothes that have had to close completely.

Although I think Tesco have deemed tampons non-essential (in a shop in the UK), so I'm not sure how good a judge of this they are.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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