Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

lcarrol3 · 24-10-2020 7:47pm

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

For us it's been three years that we've been saving to buy and we've been living with parents and getting very, very ready to move. We've bought something with room to grow and taken an 80% mortgage so we're a little more protected from negative equity. I completely agree, if someone was comfortable enough to wait I would. But for some of us, to wait would knock off a lot of our plans.

cant26 · 24-10-2020 8:02pm

HotDudeLife wrote: »

They will 100% drop, that is guaranteed.

Prices already dropping in Dublin 7, 11, 12 and 24. (Not all areas though).

Not everyone is based in Dublin! Just bought in the West and prices have increased significantly since June.
Since Covid hit all I see on some of these threads is ‘wait for the crash’, people expecting/hoping for a crash similar to 2009 onwards. I don’t think it’s wise to say anything is 100% in these uncertain times.
I suppose for us we picked a property we liked, was big enough that we could stay long term if needed and location is great.

sparkle109 · 24-10-2020 8:06pm

We did similar and have taken a 80% mortgage so like the poster above will hopefully cushion us against any drop. Although we plan to be there for minimum 5/7 years.

cant26 wrote: »

Not everyone is based in Dublin! Just bought in the West and prices have increased significantly since June.
Since Covid hit all I see on some of these threads is ‘wait for the crash’, people expecting/hoping for a crash similar to 2009 onwards. I don’t think it’s wise to say anything is 100% in these uncertain times.
I suppose for us we picked a property we liked, was big enough that we could stay long term if needed and location is great.

cant26 · 24-10-2020 8:08pm

sparkle109 wrote: »

We did similar and have taken a 80% mortgage so like the poster above will hopefully cushion us against any drop. Although we plan to be there for minimum 5/7 years.

We are the same with an 80% mortgage.

Green Mile · 24-10-2020 9:44pm

HotDudeLife wrote: »

100%, the question is by how much. Some say 5-10% some a lot more, imo i think some areas of Dublin will experience 10-15% drops in the next year.

I am not FTB but may purchase an investment property if prices drop 20% or more.

I wouldn’t be that certain of a drop in price. This recession isn’t a banking crises like the last one. Negative interest rates means banks want to lend, it’s cheaper than holding money and there’s more people who are not affected by covid in terms of their finances compared to those who are.
Yes true current house price increases have slowed down, they may even drop like you say but to 20% or more?

Ubbquittious · 24-10-2020 9:49pm

cant26 wrote: »

Not everyone is based in Dublin! Just bought in the West and prices have increased significantly since June.
Since Covid hit all I see on some of these threads is ‘wait for the crash’, people expecting/hoping for a crash similar to 2009 onwards. I don’t think it’s wise to say anything is 100% in these uncertain times.
I suppose for us we picked a property we liked, was big enough that we could stay long term if needed and location is great.

Sometimes it seems on here that everyone is based in Dublin or the burbs and commuter towns.

Donald Trump · 24-10-2020 9:50pm

Zenify wrote: »

UK Banks increase mortgage rates as they are trying to reduce demand, because they are too busy. Article in the FT today. Read the article by googling "FT stifle home loan boom".

Says it's due to a current "stamp duty holiday" that people want to take advantage of before it expires. "Offers a tax saving of up to 15k"

lindtee · 24-10-2020 10:08pm

I will definitely be going ahead with buying if things go to plan. I plan on living there for at least the next 10 years and the LTV will be relatively low in my case. There’s such a shortage of decent quality homes on market at the moment and I can’t see that changing any time soon.

CianRyan · 24-10-2020 10:45pm

HotDudeLife wrote: »

They will 100% drop, that is guaranteed.

Prices already dropping in Dublin 7, 11, 12 and 24. (Not all areas though).

The house I'm sale agreed on is in D24, was sale agreed 5/6 months ago, the bidding process was very aggressive. Our offer was nearly 10k less than the highest offer (we won because we're not in a chain) and the highest bid was nearly 10k over what it was sale agreed on last time around.

I was expecting house prices to fall but honestly, those of us in a position to buy now seem to be bidding very strongly with a real edge to those in a position to move quickly.

CarMc · 24-10-2020 10:50pm

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

We were bidding on houses throughout July & August when you had to show proof of AIP just to get a viewing and 400,000 people in the country were on a Covid payment of some kind and we were getting outbid on a lot of properties - most were going for 40k over asking (not Dublin but close to it) - I can’t see prices dropping. They might level out but not drop. People who held on to their jobs this year have more disposable income and more savings - there are less houses up for sale now and less buyers but it doesn’t seem to be lowering sale prices - just my opinion but we’ll see next year I suppose.

combat14 · 24-10-2020 11:12pm

any houses I was looking at in the midlands have all sold for 3.5% less than asking price over the last few months

interesting to see that we are now facing the highest number of businesses closing since the last recession 12 years ago .. people will need their savings by the sounds of it to cushion them from widespread jobs losses and future tax rises

PommieBast · 25-10-2020 2:06am

Donald Trump wrote: »

Says it's due to a current "stamp duty holiday" that people want to take advantage of before it expires. "Offers a tax saving of up to 15k"

I was looking at UK property over the summer but it was pretty clear that some EAs were doing things that negate the saving.

Bluefoam · 25-10-2020 4:50am

combat14 wrote: »

any houses I was looking at in the midlands have all sold for 3.5% less than asking price over the last few months

interesting to see that we are now facing the highest number of businesses closing since the last recession 12 years ago .. people will need their savings by the sounds of it to cushion them from widespread jobs losses and future tax rises

Exactly. People are staying in the house they own... Less housing coming to market... Demand is still high, but maybe not as high as it was.
I'm hearing of allot of developers putting a hold on, or slowing development of housing projects. It's going to take time to ramp up building again.

Who knows if the market will crash... But know one thing, the market rises regardless of any downswing. During the last recession we all thought it was the end of the property market... It didn't take long for it to recover and start to grow massively again.

TheSheriff · 25-10-2020 9:54am

Bluefoam wrote: »

Exactly. People are staying in the house they own... Less housing coming to market... Demand is still high, but maybe not as high as it was.
I'm hearing of allot of developers putting a hold on, or slowing development of housing projects. It's going to take time to ramp up building again.

Who knows if the market will crash... But know one thing, the market rises regardless of any downswing. During the last recession we all thought it was the end of the property market... It didn't take long for it to recover and start to grow massively again.

I wouldn't trust anyone on this forum who spouts stuff like 'the market will 100% drop".

We are pushing ahead with buying a house, we need somewhere to live. Not too bothered if next year it's worth slightly less.

handlemaster · 25-10-2020 11:13am

Ubbquittious wrote: »

Sometimes it seems on here that everyone is based in Dublin or the burbs and commuter towns.

The majority are population wise

Mad_maxx · 25-10-2020 11:51am

the global economy during the great recession was dealing with a severe lack of credit , its a completely different situation now , central banks are prepared to flood the market with liquidity

the stock market took more than five years to get back to peak in america from 2007 to 2013 , this time it took less than five months , im not saying the irish property market moves in tandem with the U.S stock market but the economies of the world are interlinked now , the global macro effects the micro in ireland and by extension to the property market

if covid 19 is still with us in two years to the same extent , its difficult to see how house prices dont drop by a significant amount but id say at worse they will be where they are today in 2022

Maz2016 · 25-10-2020 12:02pm

HotDudeLife wrote: »

100%, the question is by how much. Some say 5-10% some a lot more, imo i think some areas of Dublin will experience 10-15% drops in the next year.

I am not FTB but may purchase an investment property if prices drop 20% or more.

This is all hearsay. People said that during the last lockdown too. In fact the opposite has happened. If we get to see price drops they will be gradual. This was taken from the examiner during the week:

The largest price increases were in urban areas, with prices in Waterford rising 11%, Galway 10% and Cork and Limerick 9% in three months. By comparison, prices in Dublin rose by an average of 2.2%

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40066944.html?type=amp

The difference between now and the crash the last time is there is a severe shortage in property.

I wouldn’t put off buying, if you do your wasting any potential saving in rent etc.

hi! · 25-10-2020 12:09pm

For those that have bought/sold recently.... how close was the selling price to asking price?

Is it a case that what’s advertised is not what sellers want and are just marketed that way to gain interest. Or are sellers now selling for less than asking price?

Mad_maxx · 25-10-2020 12:44pm

hi! wrote: »

For those that have bought/sold recently.... how close was the selling price to asking price?

Is it a case that what’s advertised is not what sellers want and are just marketed that way to gain interest. Or are sellers now selling for less than asking price?

two people close to me have bought and are closing in , in both cases the asking price has been more or less achieved

the market is strong

dor843088 · 25-10-2020 2:02pm

Property where I live has pre covid been snapped up with multiple bids within a week or two. Now they are lingering on the market with no bids . Just sitting there. Apartment asking prices down 20% in one or two cases.

dor843088 · 25-10-2020 2:06pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

two people close to me have bought and are closing in , in both cases the asking price has been more or less achieved

the market is strong

So you know two people who have paid asking price and that's your basis for a strong market statement ? Ok :rolleyes:

Maz2016 · 25-10-2020 2:19pm

dor843088 wrote: »

Property where I live has pre covid been snapped up with multiple bids within a week or two. Now they are lingering on the market with no bids . Just sitting there. Apartment asking prices down 20% in one or two cases.

Not asking for a specific area but what county is that? 20% decrease in apartment price is huge and certainly not something I have seen (or read about )

Leozord · 25-10-2020 2:31pm

hi! wrote: »

For those that have bought/sold recently.... how close was the selling price to asking price?

I've purchased for 5K less than the asking price, was about 1.3% less

Reins · 25-10-2020 2:45pm

I've sale agreed my place ( for 2nd time ) for 4k less than orginal sale agreed price. Still 5% over the asking price.

Currently looking for somewhere, anything I'm interested in has offers in excess of the asking price .

Mad_maxx · 25-10-2020 2:56pm

dor843088 wrote: »

So you know two people who have paid asking price and that's your basis for a strong market statement ? Ok :rolleyes:

whats your basis for a weakening one ?

Mic 1972 · 25-10-2020 3:01pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

two people close to me have bought and are closing in , in both cases the asking price has been more or less achieved

the market is strong

That's also reflected on the Q3 Daft sale report

Biggest asking price increase in years

cnocbui · 25-10-2020 3:17pm

dor843088 wrote: »

Property where I live has pre covid been snapped up with multiple bids within a week or two. Now they are lingering on the market with no bids . Just sitting there. Apartment asking prices down 20% in one or two cases.

Apartment rentals are taking a huge hit worldwide and it's pretty predictable their prices would fall, but the reason for all that is people have realised how awful living in a small apartment really is and they want out of that and into houses with room; and out of cities alltogether in many cases.

This exodus is sustaining prices of houses, and leading to increases if anything, due to supply constraints.

Buyers market for apartments and sellers market for houses.

Mic 1972 · 25-10-2020 3:23pm

cnocbui wrote: »

Apartment rentals are taking a huge hit worldwide and it's pretty predictable their prices would fall, but the reason for all that is people have realised how awful living in a small apartment really is and they want out of that and into houses with room; and out of cities alltogether in many cases.

This exodus is sustaining prices of houses, and leading to increases if anything, due to supply constraints.

Buyers market for apartments and sellers market for houses.

Apartments are still being sold at top dollar. Did you see a decline in any particular area?
I've watching D7 and D1, and I didnt see any significant movement in the 1beds

Mad_maxx · 25-10-2020 3:31pm

i enquired about a few two beds apartments in northwood santry a month ago , asking price around 245 k , all were sale agreed for around 250 k

Mic 1972 · 25-10-2020 3:41pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i enquired about a few two beds apartments in northwood santry a month ago , asking price around 245 k , all were sale agreed for around 250 k

According to Daft the 1 and 2 beds are seeing the biggest rise in asking price, up 8 to 9% in most areas

https://www.daft.ie/report/2020-Q3-houseprice-daftreport.pdf

Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Comments