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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Continued from here:

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058041687

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TheSheriff

Bluefoam wrote: »

Exactly. People are staying in the house they own... Less housing coming to market... Demand is still high, but maybe not as high as it was.
I'm hearing of allot of developers putting a hold on, or slowing development of housing projects. It's going to take time to ramp up building again.

Who knows if the market will crash... But know one thing, the market rises regardless of any downswing. During the last recession we all thought it was the end of the property market... It didn't take long for it to recover and start to grow massively again.

I wouldn't trust anyone on this forum who spouts stuff like 'the market will 100% drop".

We are pushing ahead with buying a house, we need somewhere to live. Not too bothered if next year it's worth slightly less.

handlemaster

Ubbquittious wrote: »

Sometimes it seems on here that everyone is based in Dublin or the burbs and commuter towns.

The majority are population wise

Mad_maxx

the global economy during the great recession was dealing with a severe lack of credit , its a completely different situation now , central banks are prepared to flood the market with liquidity

the stock market took more than five years to get back to peak in america from 2007 to 2013 , this time it took less than five months , im not saying the irish property market moves in tandem with the U.S stock market but the economies of the world are interlinked now , the global macro effects the micro in ireland and by extension to the property market

if covid 19 is still with us in two years to the same extent , its difficult to see how house prices dont drop by a significant amount but id say at worse they will be where they are today in 2022

Maz2016

HotDudeLife wrote: »

100%, the question is by how much. Some say 5-10% some a lot more, imo i think some areas of Dublin will experience 10-15% drops in the next year.

I am not FTB but may purchase an investment property if prices drop 20% or more.

This is all hearsay. People said that during the last lockdown too. In fact the opposite has happened. If we get to see price drops they will be gradual. This was taken from the examiner during the week:

The largest price increases were in urban areas, with prices in Waterford rising 11%, Galway 10% and Cork and Limerick 9% in three months. By comparison, prices in Dublin rose by an average of 2.2%

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40066944.html?type=amp

The difference between now and the crash the last time is there is a severe shortage in property.

I wouldn’t put off buying, if you do your wasting any potential saving in rent etc.

hi!

For those that have bought/sold recently.... how close was the selling price to asking price?

Is it a case that what’s advertised is not what sellers want and are just marketed that way to gain interest. Or are sellers now selling for less than asking price?

Mad_maxx

hi! wrote: »

For those that have bought/sold recently.... how close was the selling price to asking price?

Is it a case that what’s advertised is not what sellers want and are just marketed that way to gain interest. Or are sellers now selling for less than asking price?

two people close to me have bought and are closing in , in both cases the asking price has been more or less achieved

the market is strong

dor843088

Property where I live has pre covid been snapped up with multiple bids within a week or two. Now they are lingering on the market with no bids . Just sitting there. Apartment asking prices down 20% in one or two cases.

dor843088

Mad_maxx wrote: »

two people close to me have bought and are closing in , in both cases the asking price has been more or less achieved

the market is strong

So you know two people who have paid asking price and that's your basis for a strong market statement ? Ok :rolleyes:

Maz2016

dor843088 wrote: »

Property where I live has pre covid been snapped up with multiple bids within a week or two. Now they are lingering on the market with no bids . Just sitting there. Apartment asking prices down 20% in one or two cases.

Not asking for a specific area but what county is that? 20% decrease in apartment price is huge and certainly not something I have seen (or read about )

Leozord

hi! wrote: »

For those that have bought/sold recently.... how close was the selling price to asking price?

I've purchased for 5K less than the asking price, was about 1.3% less

Reins

I've sale agreed my place ( for 2nd time ) for 4k less than orginal sale agreed price. Still 5% over the asking price.

Currently looking for somewhere, anything I'm interested in has offers in excess of the asking price .

Mad_maxx

dor843088 wrote: »

So you know two people who have paid asking price and that's your basis for a strong market statement ? Ok :rolleyes:

whats your basis for a weakening one ?

Mic 1972

Mad_maxx wrote: »

two people close to me have bought and are closing in , in both cases the asking price has been more or less achieved

the market is strong

That's also reflected on the Q3 Daft sale report

Biggest asking price increase in years

cnocbui

dor843088 wrote: »

Property where I live has pre covid been snapped up with multiple bids within a week or two. Now they are lingering on the market with no bids . Just sitting there. Apartment asking prices down 20% in one or two cases.

Apartment rentals are taking a huge hit worldwide and it's pretty predictable their prices would fall, but the reason for all that is people have realised how awful living in a small apartment really is and they want out of that and into houses with room; and out of cities alltogether in many cases.

This exodus is sustaining prices of houses, and leading to increases if anything, due to supply constraints.

Buyers market for apartments and sellers market for houses.

Mic 1972

cnocbui wrote: »

Apartment rentals are taking a huge hit worldwide and it's pretty predictable their prices would fall, but the reason for all that is people have realised how awful living in a small apartment really is and they want out of that and into houses with room; and out of cities alltogether in many cases.

This exodus is sustaining prices of houses, and leading to increases if anything, due to supply constraints.

Buyers market for apartments and sellers market for houses.

Apartments are still being sold at top dollar. Did you see a decline in any particular area?
I've watching D7 and D1, and I didnt see any significant movement in the 1beds

Mad_maxx

i enquired about a few two beds apartments in northwood santry a month ago , asking price around 245 k , all were sale agreed for around 250 k

Mic 1972

Mad_maxx wrote: »

i enquired about a few two beds apartments in northwood santry a month ago , asking price around 245 k , all were sale agreed for around 250 k

According to Daft the 1 and 2 beds are seeing the biggest rise in asking price, up 8 to 9% in most areas

https://www.daft.ie/report/2020-Q3-houseprice-daftreport.pdf

HotDudeLife

Well that's enough of boards for a while. I made my prediction that prices will drop at least 10% by Oct 2021 and have a reminder on my phone, i'll log back in then and feast on the crash deniers tears.

I wish everyone the best in their property hunting endeavors.

HDL signing out.

Hubertj

cnocbui wrote: »

Apartment rentals are taking a huge hit worldwide and it's pretty predictable their prices would fall, but the reason for all that is people have realised how awful living in a small apartment really is and they want out of that and into houses with room; and out of cities alltogether in many cases.

This exodus is sustaining prices of houses, and leading to increases if anything, due to supply constraints.

Buyers market for apartments and sellers market for houses.

I think this makes sense. But with rental prices falling doesn’t that also present an opportunity for people in house shares to go for 1 beds etc? Thai gives them more space than a house/apt meant share?

Bluefoam

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Well that's enough of boards for a while. I made my prediction that prices will drop at least 10% by Oct 2021 and have a reminder on my phone, i'll log back in then and feast on the crash deniers tears.

I wish everyone the best in their property hunting endeavors.

HDL signing out.

I know that you're gone an' all'n anyways.... If property has risen in some areas by almost 10% in the past few months... And you predict a 10% drop by exactly October 2021... We'll, isn't that just stagnation?

I'm not predicting anything, I couldn't give a ****, but my observation is that new buyers want prices to drop, and home owner want them to rise... Neither has any clue what will happen. Even the best paid economists don't have a clue.

thefridge2006

Green Mile wrote: »

I wouldn’t be that certain of a drop in price. This recession isn’t a banking crises like the last one. Negative interest rates means banks want to lend, it’s cheaper than holding money and there’s more people who are not affected by covid in terms of their finances compared to those who are.
Yes true current house price increases have slowed down, they may even drop like you say but to 20% or more?

I don't know where this illusion of less people have been affected this time around comes from....this is so much worse than 08 and we are nowhere near it from being over (8 months already) where as 08 lasted 18months....

In 08 the big hits on jobs were mainly in construction (one sector). All my mates in banks and finance were grand. This time, nobody is escaping it. Large MNC seem to be doing ok but that money isn't staying here or at least the normal joe soap aren't really seeing it anyway, In fact in 08 nearly everyone i knew was working.....this time around it's not as pretty.

that's my observation anyway.

Bluefoam

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I don't know where this illusion of less people have been affected this time around comes from....this is so much worse than 08 and we are nowhere near it from being over (8 months already) where as 08 lasted 18months....

In 08 the big hits on jobs were mainly in construction (one sector). All my mates in banks and finance were grand. This time, nobody is escaping it. Large MNC seem to be doing ok but that money isn't staying here or at least the normal joe soap aren't really seeing it anyway, In fact in 08 nearly everyone i knew was working.....this time around it's not as pretty.

that's my observation anyway.

The difference is in property ownership, leveraged lending and equity.

The property landscape is very different now compared with 2008.

thefridge2006

Bluefoam wrote: »

The difference is in property ownership, leveraged lending and equity.

The property landscape is very different now compared with 2008.

Not really,most need credit to buy, just like 08... that's drying up as the days go by. just this week another 200000 people are back on PUP.

unless your job is extremely safe I wouldn't be encouraging buying in a million years. nobody knows what's coming down the tracks for this country and that's not evening thinking of brexit.

all the happy people signing up for the "dream home" at near peak of the market, then bang, no job, no sign of a job and no sign of Covid going away........ what do you do then?

bdmc5

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I don't know where this illusion of less people have been affected this time around comes from....this is so much worse than 08 and we are nowhere near it from being over (8 months already) where as 08 lasted 18months....

In 08 the big hits on jobs were mainly in construction (one sector). All my mates in banks and finance were grand. This time, nobody is escaping it. Large MNC seem to be doing ok but that money isn't staying here or at least the normal joe soap aren't really seeing it anyway, In fact in 08 nearly everyone i knew was working.....this time around it's not as pretty.

that's my observation anyway.

A lot sweeping generalisations there. Just because afew buddies in banking didn’t lose their jobs in 08 doesnt mean that banking was massively hit. There were literally 10s of thousands of people left jobless in banking alone in 08. Ask anyone workin Anglo, National Irish and huge number of people who had to redundancy in AIB or BOI that banking wasn’t impacted.

You say no one is escaping losing jobs hit now ? There are hundreds of thousands people working continuously all through this pandemic many of whom actually saving more than ever working from home. I don’t know a single person working in a multi-national or a bank that has lost their job this year but that’s not to say people in other industries are having It very rough.

Cork market is extremely competitive here so clear a lot of people don’t share the doom and gloom don’t buy sentiment.

Roberto_gas

Until demand dies nothing is going to change ! Right now demand is what is keeping the market stable....Supply is never going to improve !

How can demand decrease ?

1) Job lossed and mass emigration like 2010 - Dont know where people will go as covid is a different ball game
2) Worldwide depression resulting in ppl losing jobs etc - We are possibly in one, but until gov keep giving out doles bailouts etc nothing is going to change

A big trigger can only change things in next one year ! Until then i dont see any major drops in prices !

Mad_maxx

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I don't know where this illusion of less people have been affected this time around comes from....this is so much worse than 08 and we are nowhere near it from being over (8 months already) where as 08 lasted 18months....

In 08 the big hits on jobs were mainly in construction (one sector). All my mates in banks and finance were grand. This time, nobody is escaping it. Large MNC seem to be doing ok but that money isn't staying here or at least the normal joe soap aren't really seeing it anyway, In fact in 08 nearly everyone i knew was working.....this time around it's not as pretty.

that's my observation anyway.

World wide credit crunch- tightening in 2008 , no such issue this time, plenty of liquidity

Marius34

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Well that's enough of boards for a while. I made my prediction that prices will drop at least 10% by Oct 2021 and have a reminder on my phone, i'll log back in then and feast on the crash deniers tears.

I wish everyone the best in their property hunting endeavors.

HDL signing out.

1) The chances that property price will fall more than 10% in a year are Low.
2) The chances that HotDudeLife will NOT log back to remind about his forecast are High.

TheSheriff

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I don't know where this illusion of less people have been affected this time around comes from....this is so much worse than 08 and we are nowhere near it from being over (8 months already) where as 08 lasted 18months....

In 08 the big hits on jobs were mainly in construction (one sector). All my mates in banks and finance were grand. This time, nobody is escaping it. Large MNC seem to be doing ok but that money isn't staying here or at least the normal joe soap aren't really seeing it anyway, In fact in 08 nearly everyone i knew was working.....this time around it's not as pretty.

that's my observation anyway.

You are either badly informed or just scare mongering.

I'm not sure where the illusion that everyone is affected is coming from.

Literally nobody in my own socio economic circle has been impacted (luckily). They are still working away, just without the commute. They have more money in the bank nowadays. Some, in sectors like pharma have successfully changed jobs during all this with a pay rise.

Very close friends of ours have successfully applied for a mortgage, gone sale agreed and are at closing stage all since April, when we were in the absolute 'the property market is going to crash' phase of this.

I'm hanging around this forum now nearly two years and you start to notice the projections for a crash just get further and further away, back then it was Brexit, now it's covid.

As another poster said, housing is now more important than ever.

This is a different type of recession to 08.

What it'll mean for house prices I'm unsure, I would have expected 5-10% drop by now, and I predicted that back in Feb. Now, I'm not so sure anymore. All I can see are price increases, or properties we bid on six months ago appearing above asking on the register. I suspect this trend will continue for the foreseeable.

PropQueries

Mad_maxx wrote: »

World wide credit crunch- tightening in 2008 , no such issue this time, plenty of liquidity

Don't be so sure. Interesting article on CNBC today: 'Banks may have to brace for heavy losses as commercial property prices plunge'

"Could the coronavirus crisis lead, via the commercial property sector, to long-term problems for the banking and financial systems? … we think it is a genuine concern,” Slater wrote."

Link to CNBC article here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/26/commercial-property-prices-are-a-risk-for-banks-and-bond-investors.html

While all the experts believe that our banks are better caitalised this time, remember, they didn't spot the last recession either. Plus, there is a lot that they don't know e.g. the shadow banks/investment funds. But the regulated banking sector is most likely exposed to these shadow banks by the back door.

On example in Ireland is Colony Capital. They were the successful joint bidders for the development of the Glass Bottle site from NAMA but have pulled out as they have quietly put most of their investments in Ireland up for sale.

Examples of their investments are the the new Salesforce and Facebook developments. Colony’s most significant assets include a 75 per cent stake in the Burlington Plaza office complex on Burlington Road and a 72 per cent share in the headquarters of Three Ireland on Sir John Rogerson’s Quay. Colony’s Irish portfolio also includes shares in a number of Dublin office buildings with U+I. Located mainly in Dublin 4, these include Donnybrook House, 23 Shelbourne Road and Carrisbrook House.

That's just one investor. The Sorting Office in Dublin also has to now find a new tenant after Google pulled out last month. That building alone could accommodate 2,000 workers. And these are only the big sellers we know about. There are probably many many others quietly looking for a way out at the moment.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

On example in Ireland is Colony Capital. They were the successful joint bidders for the development of the Glass Bottle site from NAMA but have pulled out as they have quietly put most of their investments in Ireland up for sale.

In May this year Colony Capital defaulted on $3.2 billion of debt in the US.

It's reasonable to think this is the main factor in the decision to divest Irish properties.