Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Donald Trump

Timing belt wrote: »

I will be here I might be wrong but that is what I see in the stock market. Won’t impact houses prices in Ireland tho :-)

We might be surprised at the effects of US tech catching a cold would have on house prices here. Shareholders needing to be kept happy and a few thousand laid of high paying jobs here could easily have a discernible effect around Dublin city centre which would propagate outwards from there too.

Timing belt

pearcider wrote: »

Zero chance of inflation in the next two years that’s not what the markets are saying. The fact is inflation is rising dramatically in things you need like food. Airline tickets are down but who wants to fly? Copper is at a 5 year high as are soybeans. Wheat is at a 6 year high. Silver is at a 10 year and that great harbinger of inflation gold is at all time highs. Zero chance of inflation. I think not. Article below shows a major bull market beginning in commodities.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/soybeans-corn-and-wheat-prices-are-set-to-rise-in-2021-51602851401

The inflation is masked by the drop in oil. And governments can’t spend like they are without inflation hitting the wider economy. Previous QE went into the financial institutions that rebuild there balance sheets this time it is hitting the public domain via gov spending

Timing belt

Donald Trump wrote: »

We might be surprised at the effects of US tech catching a cold would have on house prices here. Shareholders needing to be kept happy and a few thousand laid of high paying jobs here could easily have a discernible effect around Dublin city centre which would propagate outwards from there too.

Very true but I don’t think it will result in cost cutting even those companies realise their stocks are just overvalued. It will be a cold not a flu

cnocbui

pearcider wrote: »

Zero chance of inflation in the next two years that’s not what the markets are saying. The fact is inflation is rising dramatically in things you need like food. Airline tickets are down but who wants to fly? Copper is at a 5 year high as are soybeans. Wheat is at a 6 year high. Silver is at a 10 year and that great harbinger of inflation gold is at all time highs. Zero chance of inflation. I think not. Article below shows a major bull market beginning in commodities.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/soybeans-corn-and-wheat-prices-are-set-to-rise-in-2021-51602851401

Good thing I don't eat copper, silver or gold then. I avoid gluten so I'm not worried about wheat, but damn, soya beans. I do go through about two bottles of soy sauce a year. This could get ugly.

Food prices are not rising dramatically and nor is inflation. Kids these days...:rolleyes:

Timing belt

cnocbui wrote: »

Good thing I don't eat copper, silver or gold then. I avoid gluten so I'm not worried about wheat, but damn, soya beans. I do go through about two bottles of soy sauce a year. This could get ugly.

Food prices are not rising dramatically and nor is inflation. Kids these days...:rolleyes:

Take into account the drop in oil prices which is one of the biggest costs in food production and getting foods to the shelves on our shops.

cnocbui

I certainly take it into account every time I fill up my car and only having to pay €450 for a heating kerosene refill the other day. Previous one was €675.

KennisWhale

We put around 40 quid petrol in the car and it's lasting us a month of driving in Dublin at the moment. Insurance only 37 per month as well.

On inflation, I remember when you used to want to listen to a specific song and buying an album or a single would be around 15 or 5 pounds / euro for the CD / cassette. Now we have streaming for 10euro per month for all the songs you want ad free. Similarly, with watching a specific video movie it involved renting that particular movie whereas now you get hundreds of movies for 12euro per month. As far as I can anecdotally assess off the top of my head, food doesn't seem to have gotten more expensive the last 10 years since the retailers started doing loss leaders during the recession. Good quality electronics aren't super expensive anymore. Finally, even newspapers had to be bought to get news but now you can pay online subscriptions which cost less than the daily print editions.

The cost of living has gotten a lot cheaper although people might find this hard to believe.

pearcider

KennisWhale wrote: »

We put around 40 quid petrol in the car and it's lasting us a month of driving in Dublin at the moment. Insurance only 37 per month as well.

On inflation, I remember when you used to want to listen to a specific song and buying an album or a single would be around 15 or 5 pounds / euro for the CD / cassette. Now we have streaming for 10euro per month for all the songs you want ad free. Similarly, with watching a specific video movie it involved renting that particular movie whereas now you get hundreds of movies for 12euro per month. As far as I can anecdotally assess off the top of my head, food doesn't seem to have gotten more expensive the last 10 years since the retailers started doing loss leaders during the recession. Good quality electronics aren't super expensive anymore. Finally, even newspapers had to be bought to get news but now you can pay online subscriptions which cost less than the daily print editions.

The cost of living has gotten a lot cheaper although people might find this hard to believe.

Oil is cheap for obvious reasons enjoy it while it lasts. Consumer electronics and music are discretionary. Food, health care, education, energy and housing less so.

Timing belt

Overall CPI is not high which is what you would expect with a recession and the fact that oil prices have dropped but if you have a look at the main consumer items and compare them to last year you can already see Inflation.



Remember this is with a depressed oil price and strong Euro (on account of the amount of stimulus undertaken in Europe)

Output has slowed down due to Covid and there is more money in circulation which means more money chasing less goods.

It will be Q1/Q2 next year when will start seeing a increase in CPI and the big question is will this lead to wage inflation because if it does then house prices will go up.

combat14

Looks life hopes of any kind of proper vaccines are way off

Covid-19 vaccine trials not designed to detect risk reduction: expert

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1022/1173108-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness/

we will all be able to save a ton of money and drive house prices up even more with all the lock downs to come or else the economy will be absolutely wrecked in the next 2 years to come ...

KennisWhale

pearcider wrote: »

Oil is cheap for obvious reasons enjoy it while it lasts. Consumer electronics and music are discretionary. Food, health care, education, energy and housing less so.

Mobile phones and internet are definitely not discretionary and I hope inflation metrics do include these items otherwise I would question the barometer for inflation, but yes, music and films are.

Graham

Mod Note

friendly reminder this is the Accommodation & Property forum and the topic is "Irish Property Market 2020".

Some off-topic posts deleted. One of the medical forums may be a better venue for discussing the effect of Soya on your man bits.

stefanovich

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

friendly reminder this is the Accommodation & Property forum and the topic is "Irish Property Market 2020".

Some off-topic posts deleted. One of the medical forums may be a better venue for discussing the effect of Soya on your man bits.

Thanks for making me eject coffee from my nostrils all over the keyboard.

cnocbui

Timing belt wrote: »

Overall CPI is not high which is what you would expect with a recession and the fact that oil prices have dropped but if you have a look at the main consumer items and compare them to last year you can already see Inflation.

Remember this is with a depressed oil price and strong Euro (on account of the amount of stimulus undertaken in Europe)

Output has slowed down due to Covid and there is more money in circulation which means more money chasing less goods.

It will be Q1/Q2 next year when will start seeing a increase in CPI and the big question is will this lead to wage inflation because if it does then house prices will go up.

Inflation has been decreasing for two decades in terms of the long trend. If you ask me, this has principally been cause by a decline in consumer purchasing power due to stagnated or declining real incomes (US incomes back to 1970' levels, for instance), which, leaving aside neo-con politics effects on labour bargaining, I personally believe is because of multinational tax avoidance having lead to tax increases on wage and salary earners as governments try to make up for the difference. This effect has been confirmed by the OECD, not that many sheep have paid attention.

The main problem with the last two decades is a lack of consumer spending and the money to do it with, not a surfeit of it. There is no lack of goods, in fact, there are too many companies chasing too few consumer discretionary dollars. This is not a recpie for inflation.

Another effect of diasterous neo-con politics has been to exacerbate the unequal distribution of wealth - which of course is the whole point of the rancid doctrine. The wealthy don't spend, they invest and try and create more wealth. That game is now as oversubscribed as the availabilty of goods, hence interest rates declining to zero. The monied few in their relentless pursuit of return, have ramped up involvement in their centuries old favourite, property. If you want to see what really pushes property prices up, look at Australia, NZ, London, Seattle, Vancouver, San Francisco.

Governments, IMO, should have taken serious measures to limit investment by corporations and wealthy individuals in the residential property market. The Irish government, as usual, has encouraged it with near tax free earnings for the vulture funds. Then of course there's the knee-jerk reaction to the social housing non-problem which is to use the money obtained from the bled-dry consumer to compete with said consumer in the residential property market, thus driving up prices and reducing further their already near non-existant discretionary purchasing power.

Where's the door? Let me out, I want to get as far away from these idiots as possible.

KennisWhale

cnocbui wrote: »

Inflation has been decreasing for two decades in terms of the long trend. If you ask me, this has principally been cause by a decline in consumer purchasing power due to stagnated or declining real incomes (US incomes back to 1970' levels, for instance), which, leaving aside neo-con politics effects on labour bargaining, I personally believe is because of multinational tax avoidance having lead to tax increases on wage and salary earners as governments try to make up for the difference. This effect has been confirmed by the OECD, not that many sheep have paid attention.

The main problem with the last two decades is a lack of consumer spending and the money to do it with, not a surfeit of it. There is no lack of goods, in fact, there are too many companies chasing too few consumer discretionary dollars. This is not a recpie for inflation.

Another effect of diasterous neo-con politics has been to exacerbate the unequal distribution of wealth - which of course is the whole point of the rancid doctrine. The wealthy don't spend, they invest and try and create more wealth. That game is now as oversubscribed as the availabilty of goods, hence interest rates declining to zero. The monied few in their relentless pursuit of return, have ramped up involvement in their centuries old favourite, property. If you want to see what really pushes property prices up, look at Australia, NZ, London, Seattle, Vancouver, San Francisco.

Governments, IMO, should have taken serious measures to limit investment by corporations and wealthy individuals in the residential property market. The Irish government, as usual, has encouraged it with near tax free earnings for the vulture funds. Then of course there's the knee-jerk reaction to the social housing non-problem which is to use the money obtained from the bled-dry consumer to compete with said consumer in the residential property market, thus driving up prices and reducing further their already near non-existant discretionary purchasing power.

Where's the door? Let me out, I want to get as far away from these idiots as possible.

In a nutshell. The property market is a pyramid scheme.

HotDudeLife

cnocbui wrote: »

Inflation has been decreasing for two decades in terms of the long trend. If you ask me, this has principally been cause by a decline in consumer purchasing power due to stagnated or declining real incomes (US incomes back to 1970' levels, for instance), which, leaving aside neo-con politics effects on labour bargaining, I personally believe is because of multinational tax avoidance having lead to tax increases on wage and salary earners as governments try to make up for the difference. This effect has been confirmed by the OECD, not that many sheep have paid attention.

The main problem with the last two decades is a lack of consumer spending and the money to do it with, not a surfeit of it. There is no lack of goods, in fact, there are too many companies chasing too few consumer discretionary dollars. This is not a recpie for inflation.

Another effect of diasterous neo-con politics has been to exacerbate the unequal distribution of wealth - which of course is the whole point of the rancid doctrine. The wealthy don't spend, they invest and try and create more wealth. That game is now as oversubscribed as the availabilty of goods, hence interest rates declining to zero. The monied few in their relentless pursuit of return, have ramped up involvement in their centuries old favourite, property. If you want to see what really pushes property prices up, look at Australia, NZ, London, Seattle, Vancouver, San Francisco.

Governments, IMO, should have taken serious measures to limit investment by corporations and wealthy individuals in the residential property market. The Irish government, as usual, has encouraged it with near tax free earnings for the vulture funds. Then of course there's the knee-jerk reaction to the social housing non-problem which is to use the money obtained from the bled-dry consumer to compete with said consumer in the residential property market, thus driving up prices and reducing further their already near non-existant discretionary purchasing power.

Where's the door? Let me out, I want to get as far away from these idiots as possible.

It appears a bunch of landlords are exiting the property market, tonnes of ex rentals for sale in Dublin the past 2 weeks.

Springy Turf

HotDudeLife wrote: »

It appears a bunch of landlords are exiting the property market, tonnes of ex rentals for sale in Dublin the past 2 weeks.

Can you link a few of these properties?

Idbatterim

cnocbui wrote: »

Inflation has been decreasing for two decades in terms of the long trend. If you ask me, this has principally been cause by a decline in consumer purchasing power due to stagnated or declining real incomes (US incomes back to 1970' levels, for instance), which, leaving aside neo-con politics effects on labour bargaining, I personally believe is because of multinational tax avoidance having lead to tax increases on wage and salary earners as governments try to make up for the difference. This effect has been confirmed by the OECD, not that many sheep have paid attention.

The main problem with the last two decades is a lack of consumer spending and the money to do it with, not a surfeit of it. There is no lack of goods, in fact, there are too many companies chasing too few consumer discretionary dollars. This is not a recpie for inflation.

Another effect of diasterous neo-con politics has been to exacerbate the unequal distribution of wealth - which of course is the whole point of the rancid doctrine. The wealthy don't spend, they invest and try and create more wealth. That game is now as oversubscribed as the availabilty of goods, hence interest rates declining to zero. The monied few in their relentless pursuit of return, have ramped up involvement in their centuries old favourite, property. If you want to see what really pushes property prices up, look at Australia, NZ, London, Seattle, Vancouver, San Francisco.

Governments, IMO, should have taken serious measures to limit investment by corporations and wealthy individuals in the residential property market. The Irish government, as usual, has encouraged it with near tax free earnings for the vulture funds. Then of course there's the knee-jerk reaction to the social housing non-problem which is to use the money obtained from the bled-dry consumer to compete with said consumer in the residential property market, thus driving up prices and reducing further their already near non-existant discretionary purchasing power.

Where's the door? Let me out, I want to get as far away from these idiots as possible.

excellent post! the entire thing is a disgusting scandal! from top to bottom... free housing for many, paid for by those, many of whom cant even afford it themselves. Have you lads watched this below documentary? its brilliant!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XL3n59wC8kk

Potatoeman

Have a look one the daft map view. I was looking myself The last week. Prices are all over the place with properties 5 mins from each other up to 200k apart and some with price drops. They go pretty fast though if the area is decent.

Springy Turf

Potatoeman wrote: »

Have a look one the daft map view. I was looking myself The last week. Prices are all over the place with properties 5 mins from each other up to 200k apart and some with price drops. They go pretty fast though if the area is decent.

Pretty standard I think. Certainly in Rathfarnham, depending on the estate, the same terrace can vary wildly in price. It's a historical gap that is closing rather than widening.

cnocbui

KennisWhale wrote: »

In a nutshell. The property market is a pyramid scheme.

Ramesses II, oh incomparable and mighty ruler, possesor and wielder of the most fertile and busy loins, offers unto you a high five.

Wanderer78

Idbatterim wrote:

excellent post! the entire thing is a disgusting scandal! from top to bottom... free housing for many, paid for by those, many of whom cant even afford it themselves. Have you lads watched this below documentary? its brilliant!

Our property issues have virtually nothing to do with the welfare class, but more to do with the rentier classes, particularly the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate), whos prime objective is to continually engage in activities that cause asset price inflation

PropQueries

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Our property issues have virtually nothing to do with the welfare class, but more to do with the rentier classes, particularly the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate), whos prime objective is to continually engage in activities that cause asset price inflation

I'd agree. For example, there were 68,963 households on the waiting list for social housing in December 2019.

To put this 'insurmountable' challenge into perspective, we are borrowing c. €40 Billion between this year and next year to fight Covid-19. €40 Billion would have built 160,000 houses at €250,000 each if the will had been there pre-Covid-19.

Also, the 'welfare class' account for a relatively small percentage of the 'welfare' budget each year. In 2019, almost 40% of the 'welfare' budget went on pensions, 20% went on 'illness, disability and carers' and 15% went on 'children' i.e. children's allowance etc.

Wanderer78

PropQueries wrote:

To put this 'insurmountable' problem into perspective, we are borrowing c. €40 Billion between this year and next year to fight Covid-19. €40 Billion would have built 160,000 houses at €250,000 each if the will had been there pre-Covid-19.

....and rising public debt is far safer than rising private debt, the activities of the fire sectors causes rising private debt, which ultimately lead to 08

fliball123

HotDudeLife wrote: »

It appears a bunch of landlords are exiting the property market, tonnes of ex rentals for sale in Dublin the past 2 weeks.

And yet if you look at myhome we are down about 150 properties this week than we were last week even with this influx. No idea where all of the supply is gone

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

I'd agree. For example, there were 68,963 households on the waiting list for social housing in December 2019.

To put this 'insurmountable' challenge into perspective, we are borrowing c. €40 Billion between this year and next year to fight Covid-19. €40 Billion would have built 160,000 houses at €250,000 each if the will had been there pre-Covid-19.

Also, the 'welfare class' account for a relatively small percentage of the 'welfare' budget each year. In 2019, almost 40% of the 'welfare' budget went on pensions, 20% went on 'illness, disability and carers' and 15% went on 'children' i.e. children's allowance etc.

This is such a silly argument.

The will wasn't there. It wasn't there among politicians, and it wasn't there among the voters. Any party that suggested increasing public debt by 40 billion to build houses would have been laughed out of it and killed at the polls.

PropQueries

Wanderer78 wrote: »

....and rising public debt is far safer than rising private debt, the activities of the fire sectors causes rising private debt, which ultimately lead to 08

The worst thing is that our corporation taxes doubled between 2014 and 2019 and Paschal threw it all away. We could have built new homes for every household on the waiting list and still have had some spending money leftover without borrowing a cent.

Paschal will most likely go down in history as both the luckiest finance minister in Irish history (in terms of the unforeseen corporate tax receipts) and the worst finance minister in Irish history for wasting those same unforeseen corporate tax receipts on god knows what.

Timing belt

awec wrote: »

This is such a silly argument.

The will wasn't there. It wasn't there among politicians, and it wasn't there among the voters. Any party that suggested increasing public debt by 40 billion to build houses would have been laughed out of it and killed at the polls.

It’s not that silly considering we are paying 1bn a year on HAP. 10bn spent on housing Would pay for itself in less than 10 years and lower rent for the masses.

If there was a political party that advocated this besides SF they would walk into power.

Wanderer78

awec wrote:

The will wasn't there. It wasn't there among politicians, and it wasn't there among the voters. Any party that suggested increasing public debt by 40 billion to build houses would have been laughed out of it and killed at the polls.

They might just do that now, since they've just discovered the magical money trees, in which they were denying even existed, there was never any need for the disgraceful carry on regards housing, since 08

awec

Timing belt wrote: »

It’s not that silly considering we are paying 1bn a year on HAP. 10bn spent on housing Would pay for itself in less than 10 years and lower rent for the masses

It's a fairly silly notion.

Even the Shinner's housing policy was a spend of ~2bn, and they made a song and dance of their policy being fully costed with no borrowing.

Had they proposed any scheme that involved mass borrowing they would have been slaughtered for it. It's a bit rich to retrospectively say "sure if the will had been there we could have borrowed massively in the past and solved the housing issue". Absolutely NOBODY wanted this, it's ridiculous to pretend otherwise in hindsight.