Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

KennisWhale

I would've thought the sub-20m category encompasses not just small offices but retailers as well who are totally underwater and perhaps unlikely at best to experience any sort of recovery.

The WFH not being permanent mentality is understandable. I'm not anywhere near being a baby boomer unlike Conor Whelan but even I prefer to have a mix of WFH and work in the office. The sub-20m buildings again however, would surely only be smaller offices which would presumably be flexible enough and agile in respect of adapting to WFH, especially if it means cutting costs on rent.

In all of this, already we are seeing the articles coming out to say a vaccine is not a silver bullet and may not be that effective which means goodbye first half of 2021 to see a dramatic recovery in the economy (which is sad). Longer term, investing in hubs set up for smaller offices dotted around the cities rather than being concentrated in Sandyford or the city centre would be better than "waiting and seeing" with the Lad Lane office building held with small tenants who are not using it right now as they will be considering their needs if they don't need to be in the office the last 7 months.

Hubertj

KennisWhale wrote: »

I would've thought the sub-20m category encompasses not just small offices but retailers as well who are totally underwater and perhaps unlikely at best to experience any sort of recovery.

The WFH not being permanent mentality is understandable. I'm not anywhere near being a baby boomer unlike Conor Whelan but even I prefer to have a mix of WFH and work in the office. The sub-20m buildings again however, would surely only be smaller offices which would presumably be flexible enough and agile in respect of adapting to WFH, especially if it means cutting costs on rent.

In all of this, already we are seeing the articles coming out to say a vaccine is not a silver bullet and may not be that effective which means goodbye first half of 2021 to see a dramatic recovery in the economy (which is sad). Longer term, investing in hubs set up for smaller offices dotted around the cities rather than being concentrated in Sandyford or the city centre would be better than "waiting and seeing" with the Lad Lane office building held with small tenants who are not using it right now as they will be considering their needs if they don't need to be in the office the last 7 months.

I work for a large MNC - 4 offices across Dublin, about 1000 people but will grow to about 1300 next year.
2 of the offices are smaller - maybe 150 - 250 people in each. We have been informed both are closing and additional space has been taken in both the other offices which are located in more modern and larger complexes. There will be a desk for all employees. I think the GRE Team have used the opportunity to re-negotiate the leases to get more sq metres at a lower price per square metre.
I also look forward to getting back to the office. Serious cabin fever has set in after 7 mnoths!

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I work for a large MNC - 4 offices across Dublin, about 1000 people but will grow to about 1300 next year.
2 of the offices are smaller - maybe 150 - 250 people in each. We have been informed both are closing and additional space has been taken in both the other offices which are located in more modern and larger complexes. There will be a desk for all employees. I think the GRE Team have used the opportunity to re-negotiate the leases to get more sq metres at a lower price per square metre.
I also look forward to getting back to the office. Serious cabin fever has set in after 7 mnoths!

Have they given any indication on how they plan to implement WFH post-Covid e.g. 2,3,4,5 day weeks back at the office?

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Have they given any indication on how they plan to implement WFH post-Covid e.g. 2,3,4,5 day weeks back at the office?

pre-Covid we could do 1 day WFH. Take up wasn't very high - only people with a longer commute seemed that interested.

HR has indicated there will be greater flexibility but haven't said what that will mean. It will also vary by function as some teams require a lot more face to face time than others.

KennisWhale

Hubertj wrote: »

I work for a large MNC - 4 offices across Dublin, about 1000 people but will grow to about 1300 next year.
2 of the offices are smaller - maybe 150 - 250 people in each. We have been informed both are closing and additional space has been taken in both the other offices which are located in more modern and larger complexes. There will be a desk for all employees. I think the GRE Team have used the opportunity to re-negotiate the leases to get more sq metres at a lower price per square metre.
I also look forward to getting back to the office. Serious cabin fever has set in after 7 mnoths!

The big offices like with your company are better off with their large offices and they do have ambitious growth plans so it makes sense that they would abandon their little offices to consolidate with the big spaces.

In any event, it shows adaptability and flexibility which is key. My hub suggestion isn't me coming up with this obviously but it is an idea which I like the sound of - we would move out from Dublin with 3 days in the office and 2 at home and I could see renting a desk space in Greystones, for example, while living in Delgany or Kilmacanogue, for a couple days a week with its high speed internet, phone booths etc. being appealing as part of the consideration of moving out. This would help alleviate demand in Dublin from the likes of us for transport and homes, with the office benefitting from being able to save on rents.

The key with this is flexibility however, which goes against Conor Whelan's article where he talks of waiting and holding (more like wait and hope), rather than trying to adapt now.

JimmyVik

Hubertj wrote: »

I work for a large MNC - 4 offices across Dublin, about 1000 people but will grow to about 1300 next year.
2 of the offices are smaller - maybe 150 - 250 people in each. We have been informed both are closing and additional space has been taken in both the other offices which are located in more modern and larger complexes. There will be a desk for all employees. I think the GRE Team have used the opportunity to re-negotiate the leases to get more sq metres at a lower price per square metre.
I also look forward to getting back to the office. Serious cabin fever has set in after 7 mnoths!

Our company (MNC . about 250 employees altogether in Dublin and another 150 elsewhere in the country) has been issuing notice since July that everybody is expected to come into all 3 offices when restrictions are over.
They keep having to push the date out though.
Some people actually moved back to Dublin in August and rented when as they expected us in at the end of August at the time.
Now people have been told that when the office opens everyone has 1 month working at home and after that all expected back in the office.

TheSheriff

JimmyVik wrote: »

Our company (MNC . about 250 employees altogether in Dublin and another 150 elsewhere in the country) has been issuing notice since July that everybody is expected to come into all 3 offices when restrictions are over.
They keep having to push the date out though.
Some people actually moved back to Dublin in August and rented when as they expected us in at the end of August at the time.
Now people have been told that when the office opens everyone has 1 month working at home and after that all expected back in the office.

We (~400 people) has WFH two days per week pre covid, some people had more, but very little take up.

We've been told it'll just be back to this post covid, hopefully some time in Q1 -Q2 2021.

Looking forward to getting back to the office to be honest, not enjoying the current bleed of work into my home life.

Edit; the 2 days per week WFH will be a must, prior to covid it was optional.

nerrad01

TheSheriff wrote: »

We (~400 people) has WFH two days per week pre covid, some people had more, but very little take up.

We've been told it'll just be back to this post covid, hopefully some time in Q1 -Q2 2021.

Looking forward to getting back to the office to be honest, not enjoying the current bleed of work into my home life.

Edit; the 2 days per week WFH will be a must, prior to covid it was optional.

not a chance you will be back in q1/2 of 2021, sure we will likely be locked down again around that time

HotDudeLife

nerrad01 wrote: »

not a chance you will be back in q1/2 of 2021, sure we will likely be locked down again around that time

Most my peers that work in MNC haven't been given a date, it's simply when safe to do so. Most in tech were able to WFH half the week anyway, the main change from what i can see/hear, is that many people from different counties will WFH most of the week or move to full time remote, thus leaving Dublin.



Many immigrants/native Dubs will obviously still stay in Dublin.



I don't predict a huge exodus but it will likely impact prices in Dublin as many culchies in the tech game will move out.

JimmyVik

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Most my peers that work in MNC haven't been given a date, it's simply when safe to do so. Most in tech were able to WFH half the week anyway, the main change from what i can see/hear, is that many people from different counties will WFH most of the week or move to full time remote, thus leaving Dublin.

Many immigrants/native Dubs will obviously still stay in Dublin.

I don't predict a huge exodus but it will likely impact prices in Dublin as many culchies in the tech game will move out.

We were given dates several times. None of them worked out though.
So now its as you say, when the time comes. No solid date.

fliball123

walterral2017 wrote: »

I see <SNIP> is saying that viewings can continue during level 5. Is that right? I thought that estate agencies were closed????

no housing is an essential service. Sure the building site have not been shutdown either

80sDiesel

Only when the last person receives his jab will anything go back to office based.

Graham

Mod Note

folks, while Coronavirus is obviously impacting the Irish property market, in depth discussion of vaccines etc. is better suited to the dedicated forum Coronavirus (COVID-19).

Some off-topic posts deleted.

stefanovich

Billythekid19 wrote: »

But your typical person working in a hotel, hospitality ect all need a place to live, They cant all be living in social housing.

As they are entry level jobs I’d imagine they’d be in a 1 bed rental.

Graham

stefanovich wrote: »

As they are entry level jobs I’d imagine they’d be in a 1 bed rental.

I'd have guessed, house sharing, living with family or living with partner before 1-bed rentals.

PropQueries

Goldman Sachs in talks to take over Blanchardstown Shopping Centre.

"The Irish Independent reported in August that Blackstone was prepared to surrender control of Blanchardstown if lenders, which also include Allied Irish Banks, didn’t agree to a negotiate a debt deal. AIB declined to comment.

In December, the centre was valued at about €900m and had about €735m of outstanding debt, according to the people familiar with the matter.

Goldman – whose mezzanine loan is junior to debt held by other lenders – plans to inject fresh capital and is likely to pursue a number of projects at the site should the deal be finalised, including redevelopment of space vacated by collapsed retailers, the people said."

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/business/goldman-sachs-in-talks-to-take-over-blanchardstown-shopping-centre-39661964.html

CorkRed93

stefanovich wrote: »

As they are entry level jobs I’d imagine they’d be in a 1 bed rental.

why?

Zenify

UK Banks increase mortgage rates as they are trying to reduce demand, because they are too busy. Article in the FT today. Read the article by googling "FT stifle home loan boom".

HotDudeLife

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

hi!

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

Are they going to drop though? No one knows. We got our AIP last week and have started looking but could definitely wait a bit.

HotDudeLife

hi! wrote: »

Are they going to drop though? No one knows. We got our AIP last week and have started looking but could definitely wait a bit.

100%, the question is by how much. Some say 5-10% some a lot more, imo i think some areas of Dublin will experience 10-15% drops in the next year.



I am not FTB but may purchase an investment property if prices drop 20% or more.

hi!

HotDudeLife wrote: »

100%, the question is by how much. Some say 5-10% some a lot more, imo i think some areas of Dublin will experience 10-15% drops in the next year.



I am not FTB but may purchase an investment property if prices drop 20% or more.

I hope you are right! 10% would make such a difference to us. I could potentially buy near my family then.

HotDudeLife

hi! wrote: »

I hope you are right! 10% would make such a difference to us. I could potentially buy near my family then.

That would be fantastic, i hope it works out for you. A drop is inevitable, the only question is by how much and what kind of timeline, we are in the eye of the economic storm which is being kept on life support by Government money/pup etc, it usually takes a couple of months for the property market to feel the impact of the general economy.



The only thing which may delay such a drop is if we experience additional lockdowns, part of me thinks they may have a "Covid21" and prolong these restrictions, if so, expect steeper drops but you may be waiting a bit longer (at least 12 months) to see them.

Salanky

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

Everyone has been saying prices are gonna drop hugely and it doesn't seem to be happening from what I've seen. My only option to be able to buy was the rbi and I got approved this time last year. Drawdown is happening next week for me. With the changes in that scheme if I were to apply again I wouldn't be able to afford to buy and would have to move even further out.(currently in Dublin with parents and moving to south Louth)

jesus_thats_gre

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

Right house, in the right location, with space to expand... I am accepting a drop of 10%-20% for 3-4 years.

sparkle109

Well prices haven’t dropped yet and no guarantees. Plus if they do drop, it tends to be more difficult to get a mortgage and developers often stop building all the while FTBs are paying high rents.if prices drop slightly but houses aren’t readily available to buy it’s not much use for FTBs. Different if you are looking for an investment property though

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

HotDudeLife

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

Right house, in the right location, with space to expand... I am accepting a drop of 10%-20% for 3-4 years.

Logical approach.


I think those that are dead set on the location and it's (i hate to use the term) "forever home", then a drop over the next few years is insignificant.

HotDudeLife

sparkle109 wrote: »

Well prices haven’t dropped yet and no guarantees. Plus if they do drop, it tends to be more difficult to get a mortgage and developers often stop building all the while FTBs are paying high rents.if prices drop slightly but houses aren’t readily available to buy it’s not much use for FTBs. Different if you are looking for an investment property though

They will 100% drop, that is guaranteed.


Prices already dropping in Dublin 7, 11, 12 and 24. (Not all areas though).

jesus_thats_gre

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Logical approach.

I think those that are dead set on the location and it's (i hate to use the term) "forever home", then a drop over the next few years is insignificant.

Not getting any younger either :P

optogirl

HotDudeLife wrote: »

They will 100% drop, that is guaranteed.


Prices already dropping in Dublin 7, 11, 12 and 24. (Not all areas though).

We've just been outbid on a house in D7 that had an asking price of 265k. Current top offer is 325k. This is your standard 2 bedroom ex-corporation house. Scary that it can ramp up that much in these uncertain times. Has made me quite nervous about being able to afford a house after years of saving and finally getting approval for what we thought was a decent amount.