Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

Happydays2020 · 25-10-2020 11:34AM

Boggles wrote: »

How do you know we don't have 1800 cases all ready? Predictions were based on the populous not changing there behavior.

But, that's right tracing is no longer important is the new narrative.

South Korean model, something, something....Look over there is Paul Reid trying trying to administer a PCR test to a dead hooker.

Ooopss Sorry, I'll try better, I'll aim for 15%.

Oh Paul you bullet proof scamp!

Well the prediction is also 100 cases in ICU next Saturday. Unless we have secret ICU capacity, that one should be transparent.

mloc123 · 25-10-2020 11:35AM

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

Well thats purely the responsibility of parents to ensure their children are abiding by the rules.

Yeah... Because all parents do such a great job at that. Just need to look at the gangs of teenagers out every night setting off fireworks.

SleetAndSnow · 25-10-2020 11:36AM

Honestly think extending the midterm would be wrong. A teacher I know says her 6th year students are talking about how they have booked airbnbs for the current midterm and are planning on taking all the back roads etc to get there, and I've heard this from other families aswell doing the same thing. The new fine system isn't in place until the end of next week, once the mid term is up. I see a spike coming in two weeks but hopefully I am wrong.

All it takes is one person to get it and spread it

KrustyUCC · 25-10-2020 11:37AM

Boggles wrote: »

How do you know we don't have 1800 cases all ready? Predictions were based on the populous not changing there behavior.

But, that's right tracing is no longer important is the new narrative.

South Korean model, something, something....Look over there is Paul Reid trying trying to administer a PCR test to a dead hooker.

Ooopss Sorry, I'll try better, I'll aim for 15%.

Oh Paul you bullet proof scamp!

So you think there's been 1000 - 1700 additional cases not detected and reported over the past few days?

His modelling is worthless and just scaremongering if its not based in reality just worse case scenarios

Those worse case scenario were used to bring us to level 5

is_that_so · 25-10-2020 11:37AM

Ger Roe wrote: »

I think you might be misquoting him - he always says that his projections are based on 'if we do nothing'. If you introduce restrictions, then cases, hopefully, drop.

His projections are calculated at a specific time, taking account of the measures in force at that time and 'projecting' on that basis.

They are the data they used to call for Level 5. If we do nothing is based on a snapshot at that time , as we had with the ridiculous 15,000 cases in March. It can be wrong no matter how robust they claim it is.

Eod100 · 25-10-2020 11:38AM

is_that_so wrote: »

This is unfortunately going to be the pattern and now that we've been in one Level 5 they'll find it easier to convince government of another one. You could easily see more things becoming "essential" if that's the case.

Seems one of the only options left if zero covid strategy is not feasible is these rolling restrictions unfortunately. Hopefully it's not level 5 in January but some form of restrictions may be needed until a vaccine.

is_that_so · 25-10-2020 11:39AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Seems one of the only options left if zero covid strategy is not feasible is these rolling restrictions unfortunately. Hopefully it's not level 5 in January but some form of restrictions may be needed until a vaccine.

In theory we should go to Level 5 as a last resort not the first port of call when cases surge.

Boggles · 25-10-2020 11:40AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Well the prediction is also 100 cases in ICU next Saturday. Unless we have secret ICU capacity, that one should be transparent.

Link?

Goldrickssan · 25-10-2020 11:40AM

With trends already starting to point in the right direction (something I assume NPHET and the government did not think would happen this early from level 3) could we actually end up in a great position after 5.5 more weeks of this?

is_that_so · 25-10-2020 11:41AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

Well the prediction is also 100 cases in ICU next Saturday. Unless we have secret ICU capacity, that one should be transparent.

I do think it will be interesting how they explain that. In March we would have been relieved, now it'd be nice to know why it doesn't tally.

Eod100 · 25-10-2020 11:42AM

is_that_so wrote: »

In theory we should go to Level 5 as a last resort not the first port of call when cases surge.

Yeah that's why I don't think level 5 would be the first option sought if cases do rise in January. If anything it becomes easier to refuse if NPHET seek the last resort option too often. Government may need to being in lower restrictions quicker though rather than a wait and see approach.

Boggles · 25-10-2020 11:43AM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

So you think there's been 1000 - 1700 additional cases not detected and reported over the past few days?

We weren't finding all cases as was with a functioning tracing system.

70/80% according to Nolan a couple of weeks ago.

Do you think given what has happened to tracing in the past 3 weeks, that number has gone up or down?

boggerman1 · 25-10-2020 11:43AM

Good to see George lee and Sam mcconkey getting called out in the sindo today for their constant fear mongering.

KrustyUCC · 25-10-2020 11:43AM

Ger Roe wrote: »

I think you might be misquoting him - he always says that his projections are based on 'if we do nothing'. If you introduce restrictions, then cases, hopefully, drop.

His projections are calculated at a specific time, taking account of the measures in force at that time and 'projecting' on that basis.

His projections were at a time 8 days into level three restrictions when level three couldn't possibly of had an effect yet

We had already done something

The cases at that point were from the time of level two

Funny Philip & Co had already decided levels 3 and 4 couldn't possibly work let's just go straight to 5

Based on his worse case scenario modelling

is_that_so · 25-10-2020 11:44AM

Eod100 wrote: »

Yeah that's why I don't think level 5 would be the first option sought if cases do rise in January. If anything it becomes easier to refuse if NPHET seek the last resort option too often. Government may need to being in lower restrictions quicker though rather than a wait and see approach.

Yeah, the economic hit gets worse and worse the more we do that. From Indo today.

A third nationwide lockdown would face significant resistance in Fine Gael, according to senior party figures.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has insisted another lockdown in the new year cannot be ruled out.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/third-national-lockdown-would-face-strong-resistance-from-fine-gael-ministers-39664961.html

Goldrickssan · 25-10-2020 11:44AM

boggerman1 wrote: »

Good to see George lee and Sam mcconkey getting called out in the sindo today for their constant fear mongering.

What was said?

GazzaL · 25-10-2020 11:44AM

I think at this point it's every man for himself. If you have a business that's been shut down by the NPHET failures, you can either sit on your hands and cry about it, or open up and do your best to continue trading safely.

Schools with multiple confirmed cases of COVID are still open as normal and children that spend the entire day in the same classroom as confirmed cases are not considered to be close contacts.

NPHET don't give a toss about their failed contact tracing system because they think they can just turn off the lights. **** them.

Happydays2020 · 25-10-2020 11:44AM

Boggles wrote: »

Link?

https://assets.gov.ie/93272/2c5f1621-4233-47d8-adce-96e9b9b2ffc1.pdf

80 - 110 but they have referenced 100 in the media.

Goldrickssan · 25-10-2020 11:47AM

GazzaL wrote: »

I think at this point it's every man for himself. If you have a business that's been shut down by the NPHET failures, you can either sit on your hands and cry about it, or open up and do your best to continue trading safely.

Schools with multiple confirmed cases of COVID are still open as normal and children that spend the entire day in the same classroom as confirmed cases are not considered to be close contacts.

NPHET don't give a toss about their failed contact tracing system because they think they can just turn off the lights. **** them.

If you're going to get all worked up at least understand what you're worked up about.

NPHET don't control contract tracing the HSE does.

is_that_so · 25-10-2020 11:47AM

GazzaL wrote: »

I think at this point it's every man for himself. If you have a business that's been shut down by the NPHET failures, you can either sit on your hands and cry about it, or open up and do your best to continue trading safely.

Schools with multiple confirmed cases of COVID are still open as normal and children that spend the entire day in the same classroom as confirmed cases are not considered to be close contacts.

NPHET don't give a toss about their failed contact tracing system because they think they can just turn off the lights. **** them.

Contact tracing is not their job, it's the HSE and faults with it aside it'll be hard pushed to do so under current levels.

25-10-2020 11:48AM

Goldrickssan wrote: »

What was said?

That they are fearmongers that do no good for anyone. That George Lee is just a NPHET amplifier and does not have am inquisitive bone in his body

majcos · 25-10-2020 11:49AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Covid-19 confirmed cases in half of Northern Ireland schools

These should be included in the case numbers on the Island of Ireland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54656456

With 350,000 students in primaries and post primaries, those figures are also reassuring with regards to relative safety in schools. The incidence rates in the North would lead you to expect much more cases in schools since they reopened but it is also lower than that in the community.

Goldrickssan · 25-10-2020 11:50AM

Deleted User wrote: »

That they are fearmongers that do no good for anyone. That George Lee is just a NPHET amplifier and does not have am inquisitive bone in his body

George Lee is the virus! Ill march for that

Happydays2020 · 25-10-2020 11:52AM

Ger Roe wrote: »

I think you might be misquoting him - he always says that his projections are based on 'if we do nothing'. If you introduce restrictions, then cases, hopefully, drop.

His projections are calculated at a specific time, taking account of the measures in force at that time and 'projecting' on that basis.

They have also said repeatedly since March that it takes two weeks to see results. That new hospitalisations and ICU cases and deaths are already pre-ordained for the next two weeks.

prunudo · 25-10-2020 11:52AM

Goldrickssan wrote: »

If you're going to get all worked up at least understand what you're worked up about.

NPHET don't control contract tracing the HSE does.

Nphet are quick enough to call out the public or aportion blame to other organisations when they contribute to rising cases. That don't seem too quick to criticise their fellow Hse board members.

Eod100 · 25-10-2020 11:53AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Yeah, the economic hit gets worse and worse the more we do that. From Indo today.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/third-national-lockdown-would-face-strong-resistance-from-fine-gael-ministers-39664961.html

Yeah I'd seen that. Think Martin had said restrictions, not sure he ever said lockdown and NPHET never do. Seems to be more FG trying to assert authority after Varadkar came out so strongly and publicly against level 5 restrictions.

Happydays2020 · 25-10-2020 11:54AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Contact tracing is not their job, it's the HSE and faults with it aside it'll be hard pushed to do so under current levels.

Except that a good chunk of the membership of NPHET are from the HSE. Policy and operational should be separated to enable good decision making.

speckle · 25-10-2020 11:54AM

Well it looks like I was right that I asked the question a couple of days ago ..was the viva sanitiser sent to other healthcare facilities and not just schools. If this dodgy product was sent to for example nursing homes.. the company should be sued. And the question remains has it been used in the past in hospitals where outbreaks if other nasty infections have appeared .

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/covid-19-over-a-million-units-of-recalled-hand-sanitiser-sent-to-health-facilities-1.4390519?mode=amp

Boggles · 25-10-2020 11:55AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

https://assets.gov.ie/93272/2c5f1621-4233-47d8-adce-96e9b9b2ffc1.pdf

80 - 110 but they have referenced 100 in the media.

So not a 100?

Level 4 at the border counties hadn't came in at that time.

AFAIK it was revised down to between 60-84.

It would appear a relative percentage of people are not been afforded the benefit of ICU.

Even so we could easily be looking at 50 in ICU and close enough to 400 in hospital in the next 7 odd days. Give there has been 15,000 confirmed infections in the past fortnight with it growing in the vulnerable groups.

So it's hardly an absolute mental prediction.

Ger Roe · 25-10-2020 11:57AM

Deleted User wrote: »

That they are fearmongers that do no good for anyone. That George Lee is just a NPHET amplifier and does not have am inquisitive bone in his body

I don't know about that .... he dug pretty deep and ruffled a lot of feathers when he and Charlie Bird uncovered major tax and overcharging scandals in National Irish Bank, he also saw the financial crash coming in 2008 and called out the financial regulator over his official report that we were all going to be fine.

Covid 19 Part XXVII- 62,002 ROI (1,915 deaths) 39,609 NI (724 deaths) (02/11) Read OP

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