Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

md23040 · 20-10-2020 6:47am

A few doctors posted an open letter to the Irish government prior to lockdown asserting that trying to suppress a virulent virus temporarily is too damaging in its wider implications for the economy and society.

Very interesting 5 min read with evidence of herd immunity making suppression counterproductive, medical advances cutting mortality compared to March. Effects on society and patients with serious illnesses not receiving proper attention. Presently we are getting a one sided slant from NPHET and RTE. The debate should be opened up.

https://covid19ireland.squarespace.com/blog/5rsimg088ywiduxo1d5dg31z3g3yl0

Wanderer78 · 20-10-2020 6:54am

md23040 wrote:

A few doctors posted an open letter to the Irish government prior to lockdown asserting that trying to suppress a virulent virus temporarily is too damaging in its wider implications for the economy and society.

Government has an extremely difficult job, trying to protect everything, but mental health issues will become more serious as this prolongs, and we don't have capacity for this either

20-10-2020 7:18am

NIMAN wrote: »

And so would it not be a lot cheaper and easier to let us continue as we are doing and try to protect the vulnerable for the next few months?

Yes, of course it would. But they'd rather keep scaremongering talking about "case numbers". The vast majority of us have no chance of dying from this. The only numbers we should be paying attention to are hospitalisations/ICU and deaths. But those numbers are low and hence not as attractive to news headlines.

We're going with the "burn down the village to save it" approach.

We'll yo-yo in and out of lockdowns, until some sort of vaccine does (or does not) come along for the elderly/medically vulnerable. At that stage, we'll be in serious debt and economically unstable. We'll then be given back partial freedoms and go back to a sort of "half-normal". There'll be permanent restrictions in certain areas of life, and increased control/surveillance measures in the name of 'safety'. Anybody who thinks life will magically go back to the old normal after all of this, is unfortunately, dreaming. It's gone.

karlitob · 20-10-2020 7:22am

carq wrote: »

Widespread mass testing is a proven way to ‘live with the virus’ as shown in asia.

This is the first i have heard of high false positive rates? Surely these rates are happening now also?
What are the rates?

We are locking down the country again - what do you propose we do after rates drop in 6 weeks?
Have another lockdown in february?

Well I wouldn’t expect you to know about the intricacies of Covid-19 testing. Why would you know it. It’s for public health experts who given a career to it.
And it’s for that same reason why I won’t be listening to your opinion of how we should be testing.
I’m not trying to be rude but it always amazes me while joe soap think he or she knows more than people who’ve given their careers to know this stuff.

Some simple reading for you

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-there-is-some-good-news-in-the-latest-covid-19-data-1.4364777%3fmode=amp

karlitob · 20-10-2020 7:23am

NIMAN wrote: »

Don't want to post in the main Covid thread cos it'll be lost in the mayhem!

Has anyone got a graph that shows people in hospital and people in ICU against the case numbers?

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-20-00-19-october-2020.pdf

karlitob · 20-10-2020 7:27am

Humilde wrote: »

Its probably not that easy to find as it doesn't suit the official line to show that there are a tiny number of ICUs and hospitalisations compared to positive cases. One of the reasons for this is that it is mostly younger healthier people getting the virus. But another more interesting reason is that this PCR test is not reliable and, according to media in Britain, may have a false positive rate of 9 out of 10. This has been outlined by one of the top professors of epidemiology in Oxford University, who, unsurprisingly, doesn't seem to get much air time in the mainstream media.

You mean it’s publicly available information provided every day since March. Get off the tin hat.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-20-00-19-october-2020.pdf

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/coronavirus-daily-operations-updates.html

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-testing-contact-tracing-updates.html

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Who’s trying to push their own narrative now.

karlitob · 20-10-2020 8:00am

Richard Hillman wrote: »

They don't want transparency because they know its all bull****. They don't tell us that the deaths were of people who were already a deaths door because that won't help t

Theres not even an independent adjudicator for the numbers released daily. They could be plucking them out of a little bingo machine for all we know

It’s an interesting way to view the world. For all this to happen, each hospital, each public health director, each part of the healthcare organisation would have to be in on it. And to what end.

They’d also have to be on it internationally because of risky cases in those countries.

How paranoid!

Aph2016 · 20-10-2020 8:04am

How about NPHET stop trying to predict, and look at actual data for once? None of the predictions have been anyway near correct, in fact they've been miles off.

NIMAN · 20-10-2020 8:11am

Aph2016 wrote: »

How about NPHET stop trying to predict, and look at actual data for once? None of the predictions have been anyway near correct, in fact they've been miles off.

And we have been at a 'tipping point/critical point/next 2 weeks is vital' state for the last few months.

Cry wolf too often ......

JimmyVik · 20-10-2020 8:27am

NIMAN wrote: »

Interesting that many think the schools are hot spots of the virus, despite us being told by NPHET they aren't a significant driver.

Nphet have all the stats compiled since March. They know about every single case and hospitalised person. Every person in ICU and everyone who died.

Publish these stats. Tell us where the virus was spread.

Was it the hairdresser?
The bookies?
At weddings?
At communion parties?
At gaa celebrations?
In schools?

You know, ffs stop hiding the data and tell us.

Can we put in a FOI request? Why isn't there one decent journo left to ask Dr Tony to tell us what we need to know.

100% agree with this.
No reason to keep accurate stats from the public. Well there is one reason.
Wouldnt be the first time FF or FG tried to hide things that cost lives.
You wouyld think they would have learned their lesson and had total honesty with the people of Ireland on such a serious issue.

Captain_Crash · 20-10-2020 8:29am

Aph2016 wrote: »

How about NPHET stop trying to predict, and look at actual data for once? None of the predictions have been anyway near correct, in fact they've been miles off.

Nolan went on a rant on Twitter in Sept saying that if trends continue well see 5000 cases a day by mid October and hundreds of deaths! Trends got worse and we have been no where near that! Infact, I think every single prediction NPHET have put out to date has been way off the mark!

Wanderer78 · 20-10-2020 8:30am

Captain_Crash wrote: »

Nolan went on a rant on Twitter in Sept saying that if trends continue well see 5000 cases a day by mid October and hundreds of deaths! Trends got worse and we have been no where near that! Infact, I think every single prediction NPHET have put out to date has been way off the mark!

'all models are wrong, but some are useful'!

Captain_Crash · 20-10-2020 8:30am

JimmyVik wrote: »

100% agree with this.
No reason to keep accurate stats from the public. Well there is one reason.
Wouldnt be the first time FF or FG tried to hide things that cost lives.
You wouyld think they would have learned their lesson and had total honesty with the people of Ireland on such a serious issue.

If you talking about what I think your talking about, let’s not forget who’s still CMO and de-facto running the country!

Sheep breeder · 20-10-2020 8:38am

Just thinking here, can everybody with hand on their hearts say honestly that they are ok to contract covid 19 and it won’t effect them in any shape or form or that they can pass it on to a family member with out any problem for them or their health. Question to ask can I get sick or can my family get sick without killing somebody.
In our house my daughter is high risk, my elderly mother in her house, my brother in-law after a serious operation, in work a guy after a liver transplant,
Covid doesn’t choose who gets, we do with our selfish actions.

Wanderer78 · 20-10-2020 8:39am

Sheep breeder wrote: »

Just thinking here, can everybody with hand on their hearts say honestly that they are ok to contract covid 19 and it won’t effect them in any shape or form or that they can pass it on to a family member with out any problem for them or their health. Question to ask can I get sick or can my family get sick without killing somebody.
In our house my daughter is high risk, my elderly mother in her house, my brother in-law after a serious operation, in work a guy after a liver transplant,
Covid doesn’t choose who gets, we do with our selfish actions.

....and fcuk ups also happen, best of luck with things

sydthebeat · 20-10-2020 8:43am

Sheep breeder wrote: »

Just thinking here, can everybody with hand on their hearts say honestly that they are ok to contract covid 19 and it won’t effect them in any shape or form or that they can pass it on to a family member with out any problem for them or their health. Question to ask can I get sick or can my family get sick without killing somebody.
In our house my daughter is high risk, my elderly mother in her house, my brother in-law after a serious operation, in work a guy after a liver transplant,
Covid doesn’t choose who gets, we do with our selfish actions.

Very much victim blaming there.

Its a matter of luck whether you get this thing or not.

Shaming someone for bringing into their house is dangerous and incredibly damaging to that person should it lead to serious implications.

Be very careful when you throw blame around

Happydays2020 · 20-10-2020 8:44am

Sheep breeder wrote: »

Just thinking here, can everybody with hand on their hearts say honestly that they are ok to contract covid 19 and it won’t effect them in any shape or form or that they can pass it on to a family member with out any problem for them or their health. Question to ask can I get sick or can my family get sick without killing somebody.
In our house my daughter is high risk, my elderly mother in her house, my brother in-law after a serious operation, in work a guy after a liver transplant,
Covid doesn’t choose who gets, we do with our selfish actions.

No one wants it. But where will people get it - will they get it in arnotts with a mask on or in a supermarket, or in Ikea? In a swimming pool? Very unlikely on all counts. In a large church? All closed.

Where is it likely they will get it? At house parties - whether communions, baptisms, student parties Etc. And dare I say it - in classrooms.

Happydays2020 · 20-10-2020 8:50am

sydthebeat wrote: »

Very much victim blaming there.

Its a matter of luck whether you get this thing or not.

Shaming someone for bringing into their house is dangerous and incredibly damaging to that person should it lead to serious implications.

Be very careful when you throw blame around

This demonising of people will just mean that people with mild symptoms will probably not get tested.

carq · 20-10-2020 9:33am

karlitob wrote: »

Well I wouldn’t expect you to know about the intricacies of Covid-19 testing. Why would you know it. It’s for public health experts who given a career to it.
And it’s for that same reason why I won’t be listening to your opinion of how we should be testing.
I’m not trying to be rude but it always amazes me while joe soap think he or she knows more than people who’ve given their careers to know this stuff.

Some simple reading for you

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/opinion/why-there-is-some-good-news-in-the-latest-covid-19-data-1.4364777%3fmode=amp

Thanks for your condescending post.
Some of the words are too hard for me to read - can you explain some of them for me ?

Keyboard wars aside - thanks for the article regarding false positive rates.
So at 140 cases / 100000 testing is 93 % accurate

At the lower national incidence rate of 70 cases per 100,000, testing 100,000 people would find 69 of the 70 truly infected (98 per cent of 70), but also wrongly designate 10 uninfected individuals as infected (0.01 per cent of 100,000), yielding a “true-positive” rate of 69/80 or about 87 per cent.

This is still a high %. I would rather isolate for 2 weeks with a false positive than lockdown the whole country.

karlitob · 20-10-2020 9:37am

JimmyVik wrote: »

100% agree with this.
No reason to keep accurate stats from the public. Well there is one reason.
Wouldnt be the first time FF or FG tried to hide things that cost lives.
You wouyld think they would have learned their lesson and had total honesty with the people of Ireland on such a serious issue.

The system is not built to determine source but to stop transmission. You might not like to hear that but that’s the purpose of test and trace. It’s to identify people, their close contacts and have them follow guidelines. While it can be clear sometimes it not clear most times.
I know what you’re going to say about schools and pubs and why isn’t this open and why is that closed.
I can only reference what the experts reference. There are international studies - not only for Covid but also other diseases over the years on how viruses spread.
I’m not necessarily trying to defend them but just to note that the system is not built for, and even if it were may not be successful or effective, in determining the true source. That’s why clusters and outbreaks are so important. They are all published on the hpsc website - always - before Covid - for all notifiable diseases. Community transmission is high. How are the hpsc supposed to find out the source when ⅓ of cases are community transmission - which is medical speak for the person who is infected doesn’t know exactly where they were or who they may have gotten it from.

karlitob · 20-10-2020 9:42am

carq wrote: »

Thanks for your condescending post.
Some of the words are too hard for me to read - can you explain some of them for me ?

Keyboard wars aside - thanks for the article regarding false positive rates.
So at 140 cases / 100000 testing is 93 % accurate

This is still a high %. I would rather isolate for 2 weeks with a false positive than lockdown the whole country.

And I genuinely do mean to be condescending. But I put myself beside you in that.. Your opinion is not required or needed. It’s yours. No one cares about it. Same with me and mine. People seem to have the opinion that their opinion is somehow insightful and needs to be listened to. It doesn’t. Neither does mine. So I repeat. I wouldn’t expect you to know.

I trust our experts. What would I know about it? I can read this stuff - commentators on here read other stuff. We all come to our own conclusions that suit our agenda. But the fact of the matter is that whatever we read is only a small part of the knowledge that these people have. They’ve spent a career on it.

And before anyone goes mad - I’m talking about test and trace not all bs about how nphet don’t know the real world....wherever that is.

Happy to explain any words you want. I have some training in this area.

carq · 20-10-2020 9:45am

karlitob wrote: »

And I genuinely do mean to be condescending. But I put myself beside you in that.. Your opinion is not required or needed. It’s yours. No one cares about it. Same with me and mine. People seem to have the opinion that their opinion is somehow insightful and needs to be listened to. It doesn’t. Neither does mine. So I repeat. I wouldn’t expect you to know.

I trust our experts. What would I know about it? I can read this stuff - commentators on here read other stuff. We all come to our own conclusions that suit our agenda. But the fact of the matter is that whatever we read is only a small part of the knowledge that these people have. They’ve spent a career on it.

And before anyone goes mad - I’m talking about test and trace not all bs about how nphet don’t know the real world....wherever that is.

Happy to explain any words you want. I have some training in this area.

oh my god.
This is a discussion forum.
You are happy to give your own opinions but try an belittle anyone who voices theirs.
Maybe you dont understand the purpose of a discussion forum ?

I'm happy to explain the concept to you.

karlitob · 20-10-2020 9:52am

carq wrote: »

Keyboard wars aside - thanks for the article regarding false positive rates.
So at 140 cases / 100000 testing is 93 % accurate

This is still a high %. I would rather isolate for 2 weeks with a false positive than lockdown the whole country.

Well the problem is the false negatives rather than false positives.

No one knows where a positive (Detected) is A false positive or true positive when the result comes in - it wouldn’t be a false positive then.

At a current positivity rate of 7.3%, that’s 7300 people who are positive. You can’t isolate 140 False positives from those.

And while you might self isolate in the event of a false positive (or indeed a true positive) - it’s Pretty plain to see that a significant quantity of people who are detected don’t share your view and are no self isolating and not following droplet precautions. So it makes the whole thing pretty useless - it’s the not the restrictions that are useless, it’s the compliance with them by people who are detected as positive for the virus.

And when we don’t know how the transmission is occurring because people won’t self isolate when detected positive, that leads to a huge increase in community transmission - which is doctor talk for we don’t know where the source is (about ⅓ At the moment) because Positive people are going to loads of places and not keeping track of who they meet. Making test and trace pointless, overwhelmed and extra complex.

When we don’t know where the virus is you can’t have a regional or specific restrictions, you have To go into to lockdown to get control of the virus again.

Again - it’s down to human behaviour. We can’t have no restrictions and no virus. There has to be a balance; some areas will need to be prioritised and everyone has to do their part.

karlitob · 20-10-2020 9:54am

carq wrote: »

oh my god.
This is a discussion forum.
You are happy to give your own opinions but try an belittle anyone who voices theirs.
Maybe you dont understand the purpose of a discussion forum ?

I'm happy to explain the concept to you.

I am discussing. You’re not liking what I have to say. In any discussion, your opinion is not a gospel and doesn’t have to be accepted in any shape or form, nor given equal weight to someone else’s.

I’ve put my opinion in the same box as yours and anyone else on here. You wanted to be smart about hard words so I was smart back.

Humilde · 20-10-2020 9:55am

Very revealing in terms of what NPHET and the shambolic government (all parties included) are using to lockdown the whole bloody place.

COVID DEATHS = Deaths by ANY cause that have had a + test within 28 days

HOSPITALISATION = Being admitted to hospital for ANYTHING, within 14 days of a + test, or testing + whilst in hospital

PATIENTS IN VENTILATOR BEDS = only a % will have had/need ventilation

We are being lied to left right and centre. This is a full on attack on the citizens of our country by a bungling political class and a jumped up medical cabal who only want to listen to one side of the debate. The amount of eminent scientists and medics coming out against the disastrous management of this across the globe is increasing all the time. The problem is that it will be too late when the whole country is sunk in debt forever more and the real people of this country will be left to pick up the pieces. Expect another universal surcharge coming down the road soon to pay for this economic armageddon. I reckon that its time for people to hit the streets and demand openness on all of this or else the physical, mental and economic future of our kids will be dire.

karlitob · 20-10-2020 9:56am

sydthebeat wrote: »

Very much victim blaming there.

Its a matter of luck whether you get this thing or not.

Shaming someone for bringing into their house is dangerous and incredibly damaging to that person should it lead to serious implications.

Be very careful when you throw blame around

Haha victim blaming when it comes to a virus. I’ve heard it all now.

Act as though you have the virus and don’t want to harm other people. It’s really that simple.

Is the coronavirus ‘woke’? Discuss.

karlitob · 20-10-2020 9:58am

Humilde wrote: »

Very revealing in terms of what NPHET and the shambolic government (all parties included) are using to lockdown the whole bloody place.

COVID DEATHS = Deaths by ANY cause that have had a + test within 28 days

HOSPITALISATION = Being admitted to hospital for ANYTHING, within 14 days of a + test, or testing + whilst in hospital

PATIENTS IN VENTILATOR BEDS = only a % will have had/need ventilation

We are being lied to left right and centre. This is a full on attack on the citizens of our country by a bungling political class and a jumped up medical cabal who only want to listen to one side of the debate. The amount of eminent scientists and medics coming out against the disastrous management of this across the globe is increasing all the time. The problem is that it will be too late when the whole country is sunk in debt forever more and the real people of this country will be left to pick up the pieces. Expect another universal surcharge coming down the road soon to pay for this economic armageddon. I reckon that its time for people to hit the streets and demand openness on all of this or else the physical, mental and economic future of our kids will be dire.

Am amazing way to view the world. You must see threats around every corner.

Off you go and hit the streets. Not sure what openness you seek? Have you a list of data that you need?

karlitob · 20-10-2020 10:03am

Humilde wrote: »

Very revealing in terms of what NPHET and the shambolic government (all parties included) are using to lockdown the whole bloody place.

COVID DEATHS = Deaths by ANY cause that have had a + test within 28 days

HOSPITALISATION = Being admitted to hospital for ANYTHING, within 14 days of a + test, or testing + whilst in hospital

PATIENTS IN VENTILATOR BEDS = only a % will have had/need ventilation

We are being lied to left right and centre. This is a full on attack on the citizens of our country by a bungling political class and a jumped up medical cabal who only want to listen to one side of the debate. The amount of eminent scientists and medics coming out against the disastrous management of this across the globe is increasing all the time. The problem is that it will be too late when the whole country is sunk in debt forever more and the real people of this country will be left to pick up the pieces. Expect another universal surcharge coming down the road soon to pay for this economic armageddon. I reckon that its time for people to hit the streets and demand openness on all of this or else the physical, mental and economic future of our kids will be dire.

You never replied to my last post of what information you want.

You remember - the one where I put up All the information you said wasn’t been given but was.

You mean it’s publicly available information provided every day since March. Get off the tin hat.

https://www.hse.ie/eng...-19-october-2020.pdf

https://www.hse.ie/eng...rations-updates.html

https://www.hse.ie/eng...tracing-updates.html

https://covid19ireland...hive.hub.arcgis.com/

Happydays2020 · 20-10-2020 10:03am

carq wrote: »

oh my god.
This is a discussion forum.
You are happy to give your own opinions but try an belittle anyone who voices theirs.
Maybe you dont understand the purpose of a discussion forum ?

I'm happy to explain the concept to you.

The ignore button is just easier. Life is too short.

carq · 20-10-2020 10:05am

karlitob wrote: »

I am discussing. You’re not liking what I have to say. In any discussion, your opinion is not a gospel and doesn’t have to be accepted in any shape or form, nor given equal weight to someone else’s.

I’ve put my opinion in the same box as yours and anyone else on here. You wanted to be smart about hard words so I was smart back.

Your opinion is not required or needed

Lol - sure buddy.
ignore you go.

Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

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