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Have NPHET lost the attention of people?
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Bass Reeves wrote: »Dose it look now like NPHET panicked with pushing for a level5 lockdown. We are now seeing the effects of the level3+ lockdown. Would level3+ have carried us back down slowly and to controlled situation. We were in level3+ for only two weeks. During that two weeks NPHET looked for level5 about 2-3 times. This put immense pressure on Government. You had George Lee giving doom and gloom newscasts that panicked the public.
It looks like what we needed with level 3 was enforcement of the house parties rules and we might have trundled along with a fairly open economy compared to present lockdown
Exactly. Numbers had been pretty much stable for a week before dropping a lot over the last 4/5 days, yet Tony comes out yesterday and says it's too early to call that a trend.
Yet numbers increasing over a shorter period is enough of a trend to warrant jumping from level 3 to level 5 without giving level 3 a chance to work.
Meanwhile the WHO say that lockdowns should be the last resort and " living with the virus as a constant threat means maintaining the capacity to find people with the disease and isolating them. Building a robust test, trace and isolate system must remain the priority for all governments".
So pretty much what de Gascun told us in July that we had, which would help us avoid further national lockdowns.
Whereas we had Tony telling us over the weekend to forget about tracing as it wasn't going to help us.
We have less contact tracers than we had in April, and one of the explanations if that 40% of the teams needs to be clinical experts. I find it hard to believe that 40% of the people told to do their own tracing happened to be clinical experts, or that random members of the public would be more effective than tracers with some form of training, even if not clinicl.
I've actually reached the point now where if I'm reading any article and Holohan is quoted I just skim past that bit. He has literally lost my attention. The man has lost all credibility and needs to go.0 -
Bass Reeves wrote: »Dose it look now like NPHET panicked with pushing fir a level5 lockdown. We are now seeing the effects of the level3+ lockdown. Would level3+ have carried us back down slowly and to controlled situation. We were in level3+ for only two weeks. During that two weeks NPHET looked for level5 about 2-3 times. This put immense pressure on Government. You had George Lee giving doom and gloom newscasts that panicked the public.
It looks like what we needed with level 3 was enforcement of the house parties rules and we might have trundled along with a fairly open economy compared to present lockdown
No, Level 5 has two objective:
1. To bring down the speed of growth (rate of spread)
2. To bring down case numbers (the amount of virus in circulation)
The problem is the multiplier effect: the more virus in circulation, the harder it is to turn the speed of growth negative (which is needed to bring down case numbers). This is why Level 3 didn't work in Dublin after nearly 5 weeks, most people were doing the right things but there was simple too much virus in the community.
We jump from 600 to 1100 cases in two days, and that was after NPHETs original recommendation so I think its unjustified to say that NPHET panicked. You didn't need to be a public health expert to see the trend of what was happening.
Ideally, We should want case numbers to fall quickly and if we can achieve that in four weeks instead of six thats even better. When christmas comes people will want to see family and you can't blame them for that. The lower case numbers are by then, the less risk of people getting and spreading the virus.0 -
Mike Foxtrot wrote: »No, Level 5 has two objective:
1. To bring down the speed of growth (rate of spread)
2. To bring down case numbers (the amount of virus in circulation)
The problem is the multiplier effect: the more virus in circulation, the harder it is to turn the speed of growth negative (which is needed to bring down case numbers). This is why Level 3 didn't work in Dublin after nearly 5 weeks, most people were doing the right things but there was simple too much virus in the community.
We jump from 600 to 1100 cases in two days, and that was after NPHETs original recommendation so I think its unjustified to say that NPHET panicked. You didn't need to be a public health expert to see the trend of what was happening.
Ideally, We should want case numbers to fall quickly and if we can achieve that in four weeks instead of six thats even better. When christmas comes people will want to see family and you can't blame them for that. The lower case numbers are by then, the less risk of people getting and spreading the virus.
Yes we all know about the multiplier effect. The problem in Dublin and Donegal was failure to enforce and people going in and out of the county. However when all the country entered Level 3+ which was three weeks ago we are now seeing the effect of it. There was also more enforcement by stopping tragic on the M50 thereby forcing employers to let employees work from home where possible. This was not happening with Dublin and 2&3 other counties on level 3+.
What we are begining to see is that level3+ would probably have worked given time and might be more sustainable. As well as it would be over a longer period it might have changed people habbits. Yo Yoing up and down and skipping stages fails to educate people. As well enforcement is the key. NPHET is now looking for excuses for it over reaction.Slava Ukrainii
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Bass Reeves wrote: »Yes we all know about the multiplier effect. The problem in Dublin and Donegal was failure to enforce and people going in and out of the county. However when all the country entered Level 3+ which was three weeks ago we are now seeing the effect of it. There was also more enforcement by stopping tragic on the M50 thereby forcing employers to let employees work from home where possible. This was not happening with Dublin and 2&3 other counties on level 3+.
What we are begining to see is that level3+ would probably have worked given time and might be more sustainable. As well as it would be over a longer period it might have changed people habbits. Yo Yoing up and down and skipping stages fails to educate people. As well enforcement is the key. NPHET is now looking for excuses for it over reaction.
Over a longer period, but how much longer?
Its unrealistic to think, even with the best intentions, that people won't visit family and friend at christmas, both of which are banned under level 3+, so If people are going to slip its best to reduce the risk to lowest level possible as quickly as possible before that happens.
We know Level 3 (not even 3+) can suppress the virus as it happened in Kildare, Laois and Offaly but their problem was outbreaks rather than community spread, so we do need to bring down the amount of virus in the community.
Its true that some employers had staff working from the office even when they could work from home so continued enforcement will be required even after Level 5.
As of educating people about their behaviour, the government has already said if we get cases down to 50-100 cases per days by the end of the period, we will be moving the whole country back to Level 3 (which is were you seem to agree we should be).0 -
They have no credibility any more. Even if the cases start to go up again, they can be accredited to the level 5 lockdown. If they continue downwards, then Level 3 still worked.
Now when NPHET come out in January swing their dicks and leaking letters, they will be ignored this time.0 -
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Richard Hillman wrote: »They have no credibility any more. Even if the cases start to go up again, they can be accredited to the level 5 lockdown. If they continue downwards, then Level 3 still worked.
Now when NPHET come out in January swing their dicks and leaking letters, they will be ignored this time.
Richard, You must have been asleep; They published a 5 level plan in September and it was alway the case that we could move up or down. If you didn't like Level 5 you should have been bang your drum when the plan was published.
If anything we should have moved to Level 3 sooner. The daily cases may continue to fall but there still too high, and it was when cases were at 600 NPHET original called for Level 5 and we have been moving up in restriction ever since so to suggest they have no credibility is ridiculous statement to make.
and given most cabinet meetings have been leaking like a sieve, I find it hard to believe that you still think NPHET leaked the letters. Cop On!0 -
Richard Hillman wrote: »They have no credibility any more. Even if the cases start to go up again, they can be accredited to the level 5 lockdown. If they continue downwards, then Level 3 still worked.
Now when NPHET come out in January swing their dicks and leaking letters, they will be ignored this time.
It's not the level of lockdown that is responsible for the spread of the virus or lack there of. Nor is the spread of the virus down to NPHET or the government.
Its down to individual responsibility and the adherence to whatever regulations are in place at the time right down to the most basic ones of:
-Social Distance.
-Hand Washing.
-Mask Wearing.
-Reducing Close contacts.
Pretty much every regulation in place is and effort to limit people in their personal choices and more people make poor personal choices the more "restrictive" regulations have to be.
There's no reason the virus cannot be restricted at level 2.0 -
:cool:Bass Reeves wrote: »Yes we all know about the multiplier effect. The problem in Dublin and Donegal was failure to enforce and people going in and out of the county. However when all the country entered Level 3+ which was three weeks ago we are now seeing the effect of it. There was also more enforcement by stopping tragic on the M50 thereby forcing employers to let employees work from home where possible. This was not happening with Dublin and 2&3 other counties on level 3+.
What we are begining to see is that level3+ would probably have worked given time and might be more sustainable. As well as it would be over a longer period it might have changed people habbits. Yo Yoing up and down and skipping stages fails to educate people. As well enforcement is the key. NPHET is now looking for excuses for it over reaction.
I'm not having a go at you, in particular, Bass Reeves
, but I'm getting incredibly sick of comments about "failure to enforce" in Donegal.
There's a reason the majority of cases in Donegal are in the border areas. Take a look at rates in Derry and Tyrone, and you will find that they are closely mirrored in border areas in Donegal.
Donegal was covid free, until Leo decided to move the whole Country to level 2. That was followed by the world and its mother deciding to visit Donegal this year - followed closely by outbreaks all over Donegal.
Remember, the initial restrictions did not apply to those visiting Donegal from other jurisdictions!
I've been known to call to my local, usually quiet village for groceries, and turn around again - because the place was crawling with tourists who didn't seem to have any idea they were meant to social distance, sanitise, or wear masks.
All this coincided with bars opening, and, yes, of course our young people socialised. They were allowed to.
The vast majority of people in Donegal obeyed, and continue to obey, the restrictions. Unfortunately, some don't, much like anywhere else.
As to people leaving the County, again, the majority have to for work.
Donegal was always at high risk of being a Covid hotspot, because:
1: Large numbers of people have to leave the County for employment and education purposes, and,
2: The County is over reliant on tourism as a source of income.
People blaming Donegal, for risk factors that are beyond our control is really infuriating.
Again, I'm not having a go at you - I'm just trying to explain how our rates got so high, and believe me, there are a lot of people in Donegal who are very unhappy about it!0 -
Lot of good points about Donegal.
Up in the far north we had the busiest tourist season ever. Inishowen was buzzing all summer. Huge number of visitors from all over the country and of course the usual number from NI. The fact that the Derry area went on to become the covid capital of the world is no coincidence and explains the Donegal numbers a lot. Plus of course the daily thousands of people who cross the border for shopping, work and education added to it.
I actually meet a Derry man yesterday down at one of our local beaches, he was just out a "wee drive". Shows you the difference in attitude between the counties. Before level 5 I would have been in Derry maybe twice a week, and their adherence to masks, hand washing and social distancing didn't ever compare to those in Donegal.0 -
The same said about Donegal could be said about Mayo. Although the proximity to the border seems to be one of the biggest issues with Donegal.0
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Meanwhile the WHO say that lockdowns should be the last resort and " living with the virus as a constant threat means maintaining the capacity to find people with the disease and isolating them. Building a robust test, trace and isolate system must remain the priority for all governments".
huh... WHO has been saying this for months on end? it's nothing new? If people bothered to watch the daily briefings this has been said constantly...
Countries can avoid lockdowns like many are at the moment, like SK, NZ, Vietnam, Taiwan etc...
Those countries have effectively controlled the virus and have efficient track and tracing programs and as well a population willing to take what the authorities say and follow it...
This video from one month ago Dr. Mike Ryan on a WHO daily conference says this word to word . Jump to 1 hour in the video and watch from there:
https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?extid=PPlCBraUANDJTJPr&v=613855985950549&ref=watch_permalink0 -
Mike Foxtrot wrote: »When christmas comes people will want to see family and you can't blame them for that.
People want to see their family at more than Christmas.0 -
huh... WHO has been saying this for months on end? it's nothing new? If people bothered to watch the daily briefings this has been said constantly...
Countries can avoid lockdowns like many are at the moment, like SK, NZ, Vietnam, Taiwan etc...
Those countries have effectively controlled the virus and have efficient track and tracing programs and as well a population willing to take what the authorities say and follow it...
This video from one month ago Dr. Mike Ryan on a WHO daily conference says this word to word . Jump to 1 hour in the video and watch from there:
https://www.facebook.com/watch/live/?extid=PPlCBraUANDJTJPr&v=613855985950549&ref=watch_permalink
People keep bringing up these countries, however with the exception of Vietnam all the rest are islands or virtual island. All there imports are by sea and containerized. Everybody that comes in and out of these countries is by plane and can be forced to isolate easily. There success is not as easily explained by testing and tracing.Slava Ukrainii
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The 7-day average has been constantly decreasing since the day level 5 was introduced, which clearly demonstrates that level 3 was already working. You don't need to be a public health expert to see when a line is going downward.Mike Foxtrot wrote: »No, Level 5 has two objective:
1. To bring down the speed of growth (rate of spread)
2. To bring down case numbers (the amount of virus in circulation)
The problem is the multiplier effect: the more virus in circulation, the harder it is to turn the speed of growth negative (which is needed to bring down case numbers). This is why Level 3 didn't work in Dublin after nearly 5 weeks, most people were doing the right things but there was simple too much virus in the community.
We jump from 600 to 1100 cases in two days, and that was after NPHETs original recommendation so I think its unjustified to say that NPHET panicked. You didn't need to be a public health expert to see the trend of what was happening.
I also don't know where you're getting your numbers from. I can't see any point in the published test data where numbers jumped from 600 to 1100 in two days. Unless that may be missing the results coming back from Germany, but I don't know what the typical lead time on those is anyway.
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What plan? There is no plan. There was supposed to be a clearly defined plan for each stage with defined entry and exit criteria, and suitable restrictions based on the numbers well thought out in advance so everyone would know what each level meant.Mike Foxtrot wrote: »They published a 5 level plan in September and it was alway the case that we could move up or down. If you didn't like Level 5 you should have been bang your drum when the plan was published.
I suggest you go and look at the "plan" as it was published in September. It's radically different now. e.g. at level 3 pubs and restaurants were both open indoors "with additional restrictions"; level 4 introduced the outside only for 15 people restrictions. Other areas also saw numerous changes. If you look at level 3 now the (ludicrous) distinction for "wet pubs" is now gone - they're apparently a subset of restaurants or cafes now. Level 3+ isn't a thing.
What's now laughably referred to as a plan is just whatever ad-hoc of restrictions are put in place at a given time, under whatever "level" they decide to label it as.
It's quite annoying that the media has let them away with this and keeps referring to e.g. being at level 3, when nobody has any way of knowing what means.
At this stage we may as well call the levels Level 1, Gluttony, Dopey, Grouchy Smurf, and Magurndy.If anything we should have moved to Level 3 sooner. The daily cases may continue to fall but there still too high, and it was when cases were at 600 NPHET original called for Level 5 and we have been moving up in restriction ever since so to suggest they have no credibility is ridiculous statement to make.
Again, the numbers were back down to the 600s earlier this week, demonstrating that level 3 was already working.
I wouldn't be surprised though if they start going back up over the next week or so. Purely anecdotal, but out for a walk last weekend and all the pubs and restaurants which had been sitting outside the week before, properly distant, had now rapidly converted to selling takeaway meals. But there seemed a lot of places where people were bunched up queuing together, or people starting to collect were on top of people coming out with their meals, and the whole thing looked a lot less distanced than a week earlier. On top of that, I haven't seen as little beer left in my local Aldi at any time during the pandemic. Maybe it was all just people like me buying beer to drink at home on their own, but I strongly suspect with all the other social outlets closed a lot of people were having groups of friends over.
Huh? I'm aware this has been said for months, that just happened to be a recent link. And in fairness it's also blindingly obvious. My point was that NPHET claimed in July that we had such a system in place, which was robust enough to allow us to quickly identify clusters and close contacts and quarantine them, which would enable us to avoid a future national lockdown. Here we are at level 5 with people being told to do their own contact tracing.huh... WHO has been saying this for months on end? it's nothing new? If people bothered to watch the daily briefings this has been said constantly...0 -
So if we took shorter lockdowns earlier, like when NHPET call for it we would be able to have businesses open for more weeks than we currently do.
Looks like level 3 and level 5 had success but politicians dragged their feet and have damaged businesses as a result.0 -
atilladehun wrote: »So if we took shorter lockdowns earlier, like when NHPET call for it we would be able to have businesses open for more weeks than we currently do.
Looks like level 3 and level 5 had success but politicians dragged their feet and have damaged businesses as a result.
If we had gone to level 5 when NPHET first recommended it, I’ve no confidence that we’d be coming out of it tomorrow! The same applies to this one! We’ll still be in level 5 on 2 Dec! (I desperately hope I’m wrong)0 -
atilladehun wrote: »So if we took shorter lockdowns earlier, like when NHPET call for it we would be able to have businesses open for more weeks than we currently do.
Looks like level 3 and level 5 had success but politicians dragged their feet and have damaged businesses as a result.
Hello. The clear learning outcome from these Levels changes is that the root cause of the rising cases is that Level 2 is too open. Level 3 is 'about' right. Every week spent a level 2 requires corrective action by moving to level 4 or 5. We now know clearly that Level 3, with localised sort term Level 3+, or possibly elements of L4, is the correct management of the virus.0 -
atilladehun wrote: »So if we took shorter lockdowns earlier, like when NHPET call for it we would be able to have businesses open for more weeks than we currently do.
Looks like level 3 and level 5 had success but politicians dragged their feet and have damaged businesses as a result.
The present data suggests we may not have needed to go to L5. L3 and enforcement could well have done. Present figures show the effect of of L3, from the end of next week on we should see the effect of L5Slava Ukrainii
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Bass Reeves wrote: »The present data suggests we may not have needed to go to L5. L3 and enforcement could well have done. Present figures show the effect of of L3, from the end of next week on we should see the effect of L5
If L3 was going to drive down the numbers it would have worked in Dublin which had four week of those restriction. The evidence suggest that when Dublin moved to level 3 there was a rapid stabilisation in the virus for about two week and then cases started to increase again. I think its pretty clear the reason why L3 didn't work in Dublin was partly to do with a lack of enforcement but also the amount of virus circulating in the community.
The country may only be in L5 two week now but their is evident that suggest many people have been there since the first NPHET recommendation. Now, maybe it was the shock factor or perhaps it was a timely wake up call but the more virus circulating in the community the less effective each level of restrictions are going to be. So we should be aiming to keep ahead of the virus rather than trying to catch it.0 -
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Thanks for the replies. Such a pity there is so much political influence all over the world. Saw some of that totally under control movie on BBC last night. We have completely different laws than South Korea but the just removed unnecessary political meddling.
Really feel like the politicians have introduced human nature and human error to what should be scientific. As a result they've not only caused more illness and death but also damaged the businesses they were trying to protect.0 -
atilladehun wrote: »So if we took shorter lockdowns earlier, like when NHPET call for it we would be able to have businesses open for more weeks than we currently do.
Looks like level 3 and level 5 had success but politicians dragged their feet and have damaged businesses as a result.
I don't buy into this notion that Nphet were right and government were wrong.
Why are people glossing over the fact that on a Thursday, Nphet said everything was rosy at a nationwide level 2 and then 3 days later, flipped out and demand we go to level 5 immediately. It was at that point, Nphet lost the room.0 -
I don't buy into this notion that Nphet were right and government were wrong.
Why are people glossing over the fact that on a Thursday, Nphet said everything was rosy at a nationwide level 2 and then 3 days later, flipped out and demand we go to level 5 immediately. It was at that point, Nphet lost the room.
Because its non-sense, in the letter from the then A/CMO he said they were very concerned about the situation, they didn't have enough evidence to justify moving to Level 3 however more restrictions were likely to be needed in the coming days.
By Sunday the data had change significant.0 -
Mike Foxtrot wrote: »Because its non-sense, in the letter from the then A/CMO he said they were very concerned about the situation, they didn't have enough evidence to justify moving to Level 3 however more restrictions were likely to be needed in the coming days.
By Sunday the data had change significant.
Well then they're not fit for purpose, you can't jump 3 levels in the space of 3 days. They were asleep at the wheel yet there seems to be narrative that its the governments fault for not jumping to level 5 immediately.0 -
Well then they're not fit for purpose, you can't jump 3 levels in the space of 3 days. They were asleep at the wheel yet there seems to be narrative that its the governments fault for not jumping to level 5 immediately.
Does it really matter?
At the end of the day you provide the advice based on the indicators. If the indicators change, so does the advice. Not that difficult to understand. The government make decisions based on advice from a number of sectors - not just NPHET.0 -
Well then they're not fit for purpose, you can't jump 3 levels in the space of 3 days. They were asleep at the wheel yet there seems to be narrative that its the governments fault for not jumping to level 5 immediately.
You can if Tony Holohan comes back to work in those days,........ coincidence or what??0 -
Does it really matter?
At the end of the day you provide the advice based on the indicators. If the indicators change, so does the advice. Not that difficult to understand. The government make decisions based on advice from a number of sectors - not just NPHET.
You're right, it doesn't matter now, it all what ifs at this stage. But in relation to the topic of the thread, thats when I believe that Nphet lost the attention of the people.0 -
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Captain_Crash wrote: »It was set up when they first recommended level 5 and the government said no!
Actually no, it was set up on the 3rd of September,
NPHET met on Sunday the 4th October and made the first recommendation to move to Level 5. It Monday 5th of October when the government made the decision not to accept NPHET advice in full, moving the country to Level 3 instead.
I can see facts are important to you, but not if they get in the way of a good story it seems!!0
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