Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

Hellrazer

JDxtra wrote: »

Unless NPHET come out and categorically explain that schools are a significant vector for virus transmission then expect them to remain open.

I think they are terrified to roll back on their previous advice.
At the start of this children were "super spreaders" and now since August they arent.

Even WHO arent sure if children can increase community transmission.

The role of children in transmission is not yet fully understood. To date, few outbreaks involving children or schools have been reported. However, the small number of outbreaks reported among teaching or associated staff to date suggests that spread of COVID-19 within educational settings may be limited.

As children generally have milder illness and fewer symptoms, cases may sometimes go unnoticed. Importantly, early data from studies suggest that infection rates among teenagers may be higher than in younger children.

Considering that many countries are starting to slowly lift restrictions on activities, the longer-term effects of keeping schools open on community transmission are yet to be evaluated. Some modelling studies suggest that school re-opening might have a small effect on wider transmission in the community, but this is not well understood. Further studies are underway on the role of children in transmission in and outside of educational settings. WHO is collaborating with scientists around the world to develop protocols that countries can use to study COVID-19 transmission in educational institutions

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-schools-and-covid-19

There is huge pressure to keep schools open. In my experience (4 children at school), they are well managed and are doing everything they can to keep children/staff safe and to remain open. If you close primary schools, many parents will not able to work on a normal full time schedule and you’ll cause even further damage to the economy, businesses and the overall wellbeing of our children.

Im in the same boat (I have 3 in secondary school) - unfortunately I cant work from home and it would be a disaster if they closed the schools.

In saying that if it was a case of close the schools for a few weeks until we get numbers back to a reasonable level while keeping the rest of the country open I could manage it.

Captain_Crash

Hellrazer wrote: »

Theres something seriously wrong with the way its being reported or close contacts are being defined in schools.

I got an email from my sons school over the weekend saying they had a positive case. I know no more than that! They had a positive case! Not a word of what year, what contacts the kid had or anything. I’m presuming the contact tracking crowd would have called me if he was in contact but the fact the schools communication was so vague is hilarious

karlitob

MattDamonIsOK wrote: »

Alright doctor, I’ll let you come along with your infrared scanner there tomorrow and give me the once over.

Listen karlitob, you can rant and rave all you want on here, and melt your eyes reading up on reports and statistics all night if you very well wish. The fact of the matter is, not everyone wants to go into “full and complete lockdown” as you put it, and not everyone agrees with your opinion of that.

You’re well entitled to it, as I’m sure you’ll well point out, but don’t shove it down other people’s throats because your agenda is challenged. Move on to the next one.

No one wants a full and complete lockdown - as much as it suits your argument.

Criticise reports all you want but you select the data you want to further your argument.

I haven’t shoved anything down anyone’s throat. I’m not a member of government who has to make these decisions. It’s like me saying that you shouldn’t shove your opinion down other people throat with that post of yours. When I bring another viewpoint on how viruses are transmitted - well you get on your high horse and attack others. Standard practice.

The simple fact is that the virus transmits by human behaviour - droplet and likely airbourne transmission. The only way to halt the spread is to modify human behaviour - social distancing, cough etiquette and hand washing.

After that it’s a matter of how to implement these things while considering risk (to self, to others and to the states resources) and the compliance of all citizens in the state in an effort to protect self, other and the states resources. You’ll note that I don’t mention health per se as there’s clearly more to the state than health.

It’s all a balancing act and everyone has a responsibility.

karlitob

MOH wrote: »

Oh hurray, roll out the fireworks, we've reached the 100,000 weekly tests we were promised back in May.




Why would people be wearing masks in parks? Has there been another stealth edit to the level 3 restrictions requiring wearing of masks in parks? Must have missed that one, I've only checked it the four times times this week.

You were promised by the cmo and not the HSE.
You seem ignorant to the fact that it was announced in May - very hard to see how a national icf sustem can be implemented the same day.
100000 tests didn’t need to be done in May June July or August. You might have missed a few months there.




I know masks aren’t recommended outside. If people want to stand within 2 metres and longer than 15 minutes (the clinical definition of a close contact) then masks are Clearly recommended so that infection doesn’t transmit. It would make no sense for These people to stand apart At a queue for this coffee then spend an hour face to face with spittle flying back and forth.

As I’ve already said - I know it’s not recommended. That doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t do it. And I said I was surprised. I didn’t call for anything. You seem easily triggered. Calm down.

karlitob

JimmyVik wrote: »

They are making it up as they go along.
I just can believe a word of advice from them anymore.

Yes they are. But you say it as if it’s there fault that we haven’t come through a global pandemic ij the history of the state.

If you don’t want to ‘believe’ in washing your hands, not being within 2 metres so that someone else’s spittle doesn’t land on you, or if you want to ugh with an open mouth - then off you go. Seems strange to not accept this advice from public health doctors just because this nation, and all others , are learning as they go in a very complex situation.

Can’t wait until you stand up to be counted - will vote for you immediately.

Jizique

Captain_Crash wrote: »

I got an email from my sons school over the weekend saying they had a positive case. I know no more than that! They had a positive case! Not a word of what year, what contacts the kid had or anything. I’m presuming the contact tracking crowd would have called me if he was in contact but the fact the schools communication was so vague is hilarious

Big swing - you don’t need to know everything like a curtain twitcher so that all the village can gossip about the case.
If you need to be given more details particularly if it was someone in the class, I presume you will be contacted.
We have had cases at work; general email is sent and no further details as it should be (unless a close contact).
Said individuals spend a couple of weeks at home and are back - no panic, no gossip, no hassle

Captain_Crash

Jizique wrote: »

Big swing - you don’t need to know everything like a curtain twitcher so that all the village can gossip about the case.
If you need to be given more details particularly if it was someone in the class, I presume you will be contacted.
We have had cases at work; general email is sent and no further details as it should be (unless a close contact).
Said individuals spend a couple of weeks at home and are back - no panic, no gossip, no hassle

I agree with all of that! But I would have expected more than “dear parents, we are writing to advice of a positive test of a pupil” that’s was pretty much it.

carq

karlitob wrote: »

You were promised by the cmo and not the HSE.
You seem ignorant to the fact that it was announced in May - very hard to see how a national icf sustem can be implemented the same day.
100000 tests didn’t need to be done in May June July or August. You might have missed a few months there.




I know masks aren’t recommended outside. If people want to stand within 2 metres and longer than 15 minutes (the clinical definition of a close contact) then masks are Clearly recommended so that infection doesn’t transmit. It would make no sense for These people to stand apart At a queue for this coffee then spend an hour face to face with spittle flying back and forth.

As I’ve already said - I know it’s not recommended. That doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t do it. And I said I was surprised. I didn’t call for anything. You seem easily triggered. Calm down.

If we want to ' live with the virus' then yes 100,000 per week should have been done in May , june, July.
This has been managed terribly, closing test centres and track and trace infrastructure when it could be used to spot clusters before they happen.


Why not hire people who are unemployed due to covid to act as contact tracers ? We need thousands of tracers , not 450 . its crazy.

karlitob

carq wrote: »

If we want to ' live with the virus' then yes 100,000 per week should have been done in May , june, July.
This has been managed terribly, closing test centres and track and trace infrastructure when it could be used to spot clusters before they happen.


Why not hire people who are unemployed due to covid to act as contact tracers ? We need thousands of tracers , not 450 . its crazy.

Don’t be dense. There weren’t 100000 referrals for a test in May June and July. How can they test 100000 swabs when a 100000 swabs weren’t taken.

Are you trying to say that people who didn’t meet the criteria for testing should’ve been tested?

carq

karlitob wrote: »

Don’t be dense. There weren’t 100000 referrals for a test in May June and July. How can they test 100000 swabs when a 100000 swabs weren’t taken.

Are you trying to say that people who didn’t meet the criteria for testing should’ve been tested?

The capacity to test 100,000 people should have been there rather than pretending it went away and close down centres.
Yes, if the virus reaches a low level again - which it will - then there should be consistant testing of all vulnerable population, all high risk activities (Meat plants, teachers), test all inbound travel into the country (ideally prior to entry) and lowered criteria for referral to overall testing.
Capacity and throughput should not be reduced just because transmission rates are lowered.

MOH

karlitob wrote: »

You were promised by the cmo and not the HSE.
You seem ignorant to the fact that it was announced in May - very hard to see how a national icf sustem can be implemented the same day.
100000 tests didn’t need to be done in May June July or August. You might have missed a few months there.

There was a claim in April that by May we'd have the capacity for 100,000 tests. Yet despite rapidly rising numbers and a clear need for tests we only reached that last week. I never said anything about who promised it, not quite sure why you feel the need to clarify that, beyond your bizarre insistence that the HSE be absolved of all blame. And I'm not the one who claimed a system could be implemented the same day - if you've an issue with the timeframe that would be one for whoever made the claim.

But since you did, here's a report from May 3 that from May 18th 100,000 tests would be carried out weekly.
Of course, this claim that such a system could be put in place in such a short period was clearly made by somebody who doesn't have a clue about how these things work .... oh wait, it was the head of the HSE. Hmmm.

I know masks aren’t recommended outside. If people want to stand within 2 metres and longer than 15 minutes (the clinical definition of a close contact) then masks are Clearly recommended so that infection doesn’t transmit. It would make no sense for These people to stand apart At a queue for this coffee then spend an hour face to face with spittle flying back and forth.

As I’ve already said - I know it’s not recommended. That doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t do it. And I said I was surprised. I didn’t call for anything. You seem easily triggered. Calm down.

I'm perfectly calm thanks. Unlike you who appears to be getting tied up in knots contradicting yourself.

JimmyVik

karlitob wrote: »

Yes they are. But you say it as if it’s there fault that we haven’t come through a global pandemic ij the history of the state.

If you don’t want to ‘believe’ in washing your hands, not being within 2 metres so that someone else’s spittle doesn’t land on you, or if you want to ugh with an open mouth - then off you go. Seems strange to not accept this advice from public health doctors just because this nation, and all others , are learning as they go in a very complex situation.

Can’t wait until you stand up to be counted - will vote for you immediately.

No. I would like transparency and honesty. Thats what ive asked for. Thats the only thing I want.
Or expect. Is it too much to ask?

Would you like honesty and transparency from them yourself by any chance?

Dempo1

Lots of Retail social distancing today

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40067460.html

karlitob

carq wrote: »

The capacity to test 100,000 people should have been there rather than pretending it went away and close down centres.
Yes, if the virus reaches a low level again - which it will - then there should be consistant testing of all vulnerable population, all high risk activities (Meat plants, teachers), test all inbound travel into the country (ideally prior to entry) and lowered criteria for referral to overall testing.
Capacity and throughput should not be reduced just because transmission rates are lowered.

No there shouldn’t be constant testing. That’s a crazy suggestion.

There is no negative test, just not detected.
High levels of testing in low incidence of population has significant psychometric issues not least high false positive rates and high false negative rates.

In other words, if we adopted your solution during the summer - lots and lots of people would had to have self isolated due to false positives when they didn’t need to and cause a huge disruption when society was trying to reopen; and services would Have disproportionate confidence in a ‘negative’ test when in fact it would be positive due to the high false negative rate. I’m sure the concept of having lots of positive people with a false sense of security in shops, schools, work isn’t lost on you.

Test and trace is not a tool to not adhere to droplet precautions, but to support it.

karlitob

JimmyVik wrote: »

No. I would like transparency and honesty. Thats what ive asked for. Thats the only thing I want.
Or expect. Is it too much to ask?

Would you like honesty and transparency from them yourself by any chance?

I feel I already have it. Minutes of meetings, terms of references, daily data on rates/incidence/death and HSE operational services inc test and trace. A highly engaged media and highly engaged population.


What is it that you think is being hidden from you?


I note you didn’t engage on my post and moved on.

mohawk

karlitob wrote: »

Test and trace is not a tool to not adhere to droplet precautions, but to support it.

Test, trace and isolate has been very effective in Asia. We were never at the stage where we were preventing superspreaders from spreading the virus. Why not??

kippy

mohawk wrote: »

Test, trace and isolate has been very effective in Asia. We were never at the stage where we were preventing superspreaders from spreading the virus. Why not??

Personal responsibility and/or better enforcement of restrictions. Depending on where you look.
And I'd say there's still a bit to do on test and trace but ultimately if people don't adhere to restrictions contact tracing is all but futile.

karlitob

MOH wrote: »

There was a claim in April that by May we'd have the capacity for 100,000 tests. Yet despite rapidly rising numbers and a clear need for tests we only reached that last week. I never said anything about who promised it, not quite sure why you feel the need to clarify that, beyond your bizarre insistence that the HSE be absolved of all blame. And I'm not the one who claimed a system could be implemented the same day - if you've an issue with the timeframe that would be one for whoever made the claim.

But since you did, here's a report from May 3 that from May 18th 100,000 tests would be carried out weekly.
Of course, this claim that such a system could be put in place in such a short period was clearly made by somebody who doesn't have a clue about how these things work .... oh wait, it was the head of the HSE. Hmmm.




I'm perfectly calm thanks. Unlike you who appears to be getting tied up in knots contradicting yourself.

I note what appears confusing.

What is recommended by government - fade coverings in schools etc.

And what is recommended by any international health system in the event of Potential close contact. The guidelines healthcare professionals follow when they are treating patients with droplet precaution infections.

My point is that - I know that government hasn’t recommended Face masks outside by why would anyone put themselves in the position of being a close contract (where the healthcare professionals guidelines would be to wear a mask) without even wearing a mask. They either think they won’t get it, think the won’t pass it, think they won’t get sick, think they won’t pass on any sickness or think that Covid is made up.

Either way, my point was that I was surprised to see people go out of their way to be in very close proximity for a prolonged period of time with people who are not in their household. Why would you put yourself and family at that risk?

It was also in reference to the point that level 3 doesn’t work. It’s not level 3 it’s the compliance with restrictions. If people aren’t adhering to standard droplet precautions outside in a park on a sunny Sunday morning, then there’s really no way that level 3 can work and it’s no surprise then that we’re going into level 5.

I don’t want level 5. It’s hard to understand what it is people want or expect. There couldn’t be any more guidance on what to do to protect yourself and others. People are choosing not to do it - those choices have consequences for them and everyone else. Like it or not.

karlitob

mohawk wrote: »

Test, trace and isolate has been very effective in Asia. We were never at the stage where we were preventing superspreaders from spreading the virus. Why not??

Test trace and isolate was a tool to support an overall strategy is Asia.

We can’t pick and choose which parts of a system we think is good. They lockdown immediately - there’s uproar here at the suggestion. They adhere to Droplet precautions - sure you read the carryon here.

I’m not challenging the numbers - particularly in South Korea. I’m saying that test and trace is one tool that they use among an arsenal of many. They’re the same tools we have. It boils down to population compliance.

karlitob

MOH wrote: »

There was a claim in April that by May we'd have the capacity for 100,000 tests. Yet despite rapidly rising numbers and a clear need for tests we only reached that last week. I never said anything about who promised it, not quite sure why you feel the need to clarify that, beyond your bizarre insistence that the HSE be absolved of all blame. And I'm not the one who claimed a system could be implemented the same day - if you've an issue with the timeframe that would be one for whoever made the claim.

But since you did, here's a report from May 3 that from May 18th 100,000 tests would be carried out weekly.
Of course, this claim that such a system could be put in place in such a short period was clearly made by somebody who doesn't have a clue about how these things work .... oh wait, it was the head of the HSE. Hmmm.




I'm perfectly calm thanks. Unlike you who appears to be getting tied up in knots contradicting yourself.

A give over.

Sure the HSE must run the French, Spanish, British, Portuguese test and trace the way you’re going on. Sure they’re no where near where we are.

You cannot introduce an end to end test and trace system in a month or so. It’s impossible - like it is for any company, any country, anywhere. It’s an excellent job that’s being done.

In the end, it’s only a tool and relies on people following droplet precautions. If people complied, there would be less pressure on the system.

karlitob

mohawk wrote: »

Test, trace and isolate has been very effective in Asia. We were never at the stage where we were preventing superspreaders from spreading the virus. Why not??

You’re correct about the Superspreaders. It’s an international failure - not just ireland - but it seems that 10-15% are superspreaders. I don’t think anyone has addressed this issue. We’re all learning as we go.

kippy

kippy wrote: »

The facts don't tally with that.

Which facts?

The ones where the HSE decide not to test all the children in a classroom, when a case has been found?

Tell me how there can be evidence of transmission of coronavirus in schools where testing is wholly inadequate?

kippy

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Which facts?

The ones where the HSE decide not to test all the children in a classroom, when a case has been found?

Tell me how there can be evidence of transmission of coronavirus in schools where testing is wholly inadequate?

No doubt Coronavirus in School. There are fact there to support that. But the transmission is low and the issue is with adult behaviour. Not kids. Fairly obvious to see from some of the activities of the last few weeks.
Most of the cases I am aware of stemmed from hen parties, college parties/gatherings, post GAA match get togethers and the resultant household transmission from them. Some of this has ended up in schools but schools have not been the vector, however as cases increase in the community it is inevitable more will be in schools.
One would hope that the one week closure of schools coupled with adults adhering to whatever restrictions come in, will have a good impact on numbers in general and get us back on track.

Some facts in here btw:
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19 14 day epidemiology report_Website_18102020.pdf

carq

karlitob wrote: »

No there shouldn’t be constant testing. That’s a crazy suggestion.

There is no negative test, just not detected.
High levels of testing in low incidence of population has significant psychometric issues not least high false positive rates and high false negative rates.

In other words, if we adopted your solution during the summer - lots and lots of people would had to have self isolated due to false positives when they didn’t need to and cause a huge disruption when society was trying to reopen; and services would Have disproportionate confidence in a ‘negative’ test when in fact it would be positive due to the high false negative rate. I’m sure the concept of having lots of positive people with a false sense of security in shops, schools, work isn’t lost on you.

Test and trace is not a tool to not adhere to droplet precautions, but to support it.

Widespread mass testing is a proven way to ‘live with the virus’ as shown in asia.

This is the first i have heard of high false positive rates? Surely these rates are happening now also?
What are the rates?

We are locking down the country again - what do you propose we do after rates drop in 6 weeks?
Have another lockdown in february?

kippy

carq wrote: »

Widespread mass testing is a proven way to ‘live with the virus’ as shown in asia.

This is the first i have heard of high false positive rates? Surely these rates are happening now also?
What are the rates?

We are locking down the country again - what do you propose we do after rates drop in 6 weeks?
Have another lockdown in february?

It's possible that rolling increased restrictions will be required in response to increasing pressure on the health service but again, of the regulations that are in place at the time are followed by the vast majority further in increased restrictions won't be needed.

mohawk

kippy wrote: »

It's possible that rolling increased restrictions will be required in response to increasing pressure on the health service but again, of the regulations that are in place at the time are followed by the vast majority further in increased restrictions won't be needed.

Virus is highly, highly contagious. Even if vast majority obey the regulations the virus will spread and cause increase in cases.

kippy

mohawk wrote: »

Virus is highly, highly contagious. Even if vast majority obey the regulations the virus will spread and cause increase in cases.

Only partly true.
The virus is highly contagious. But if the vast majority follow the regulations the cases will not rise to the extent that the numbers will cause the health service problems.

The basis for slowing down the virus has not changed. Reduce social contacts. Ensure social distancing. Wash hands. Wear a mask.

NIMAN

Don't want to post in the main Covid thread cos it'll be lost in the mayhem!

Has anyone got a graph that shows people in hospital and people in ICU against the case numbers?

Happydays2020

NIMAN wrote: »

Don't want to post in the main Covid thread cos it'll be lost in the mayhem!

Has anyone got a graph that shows people in hospital and people in ICU against the case numbers?

No. It does not fit the narrative. NPHET predict 100 in ICU two weeks today. That is set in stone irrespective of what happens with a lock down.

Humilde

NIMAN wrote: »

Don't want to post in the main Covid thread cos it'll be lost in the mayhem!

Has anyone got a graph that shows people in hospital and people in ICU against the case numbers?

Its probably not that easy to find as it doesn't suit the official line to show that there are a tiny number of ICUs and hospitalisations compared to positive cases. One of the reasons for this is that it is mostly younger healthier people getting the virus. But another more interesting reason is that this PCR test is not reliable and, according to media in Britain, may have a false positive rate of 9 out of 10. This has been outlined by one of the top professors of epidemiology in Oxford University, who, unsurprisingly, doesn't seem to get much air time in the mainstream media.