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Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

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    #1862
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,467 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Humilde wrote: »
    Its probably not that easy to find as it doesn't suit the official line to show that there are a tiny number of ICUs and hospitalisations compared to positive cases. One of the reasons for this is that it is mostly younger healthier people getting the virus. But another more interesting reason is that this PCR test is not reliable and, according to media in Britain, may have a false positive rate of 9 out of 10. This has been outlined by one of the top professors of epidemiology in Oxford University, who, unsurprisingly, doesn't seem to get much air time in the mainstream media.

    It's not a graph but the numbers aren't hard to find or indeed hidden.
    The Covid tracker app has these under updates.
    Currently 298 confirmed cases in hospitals. 25 admissions today, 8 discharges.
    Currently 32 in ICU. 3 admissions today, 2 discharges.
    I'd say there is a graph available somewhere against total cases.
    112K tests completed in the last 7 days. Positive rate of 7.2%


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    #1863
    thebaz
    Registered Users Posts: 13,602 ✭✭✭✭thebaz


    I see the HSE are already fanfaring that they are increasing testing (that is good) and keep the schools open - and people are surprised that cases increase - do more testing of course numbers will increase - but NPHET issue ther only remedy lockdown lockdown - and do people seriously think we will have zero cases in 6 weeks , so lets lcokdown for another 6 weeks , and then another 6 weeks until eventually the money runs out and no more welfare , thats when you will see real trouble.


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    #1864
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,467 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    thebaz wrote: »
    I see the HSE are already fanfaring that they are increasing testing (that is good) and keep the schools open - and people are surprised that cases increase - do more testing of course numbers will increase - but NPHET issue ther only remedy lockdown lockdown - and do people seriously think we will have zero cases in 6 weeks , so lets lcokdown for another 6 weeks , and then another 6 weeks until eventually the money runs out and no more welfare , thats when you will see real trouble.

    Lets stop testing then - pandemic over! Why didn't something think of this before now........
    I don't think anyone is saying we will have zero cases in six weeks. One would hope that:
    1. It doesn't take 6 weeks.
    2. Case numbers will be back at manageable levels.
    3. Most people obey the restrictions as 1 and 2 wont happen if a significant number don't.


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    #1865
    Humilde
    Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭Humilde


    kippy wrote: »
    It's not a graph but the numbers aren't hard to find or indeed hidden.
    The Covid tracker app has these under updates.
    Currently 298 confirmed cases in hospitals. 25 admissions today, 8 discharges.
    Currently 32 in ICU. 3 admissions today, 2 discharges.
    I'd say there is a graph available somewhere against total cases.
    112K tests completed in the last 7 days. Positive rate of 7.2%

    OK. So 112k tests in this last week.
    And 8064 positive cases.
    Of those 8064 positive cases, how many are now in hospital, how many are in ICU? This is the real test to see whats going on.


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    #1866
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,467 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Humilde wrote: »
    OK. So 112k tests in this last week.
    And 8064 positive cases.
    Of those 8064 positive cases, how many are now in hospital, how many are in ICU? This is the real test to see whats going on.

    Probably very few.
    It can take 2-5 weeks after first displaying symptoms before hospitilisation is required.
    But a percentage of that number will end up in hospital and a percentage of that will end up in ICU for a number of days/weeks.
    That percentage will depend on a few factors but it's too late doing something about it 4 weeks down the line when they are in hospital and the daily numbers are up around 1600 or maybe more...........and then a percentage of them will end up in hospital etc etc.

    I don't think you understand what is going on. Correct me if I am wrong.


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    #1867
    thebaz
    Registered Users Posts: 13,602 ✭✭✭✭thebaz


    kippy wrote: »
    Lets stop testing then - pandemic over! Why didn't something think of this before now........
    I don't think anyone is saying we will have zero cases in six weeks. One would hope that:

    What do you think is going to happen when you increase testing of an infectious disease ? - of course cases will increase -

    NPHET are now predicting 50 cases a day for Christmas - nonsense, as if an infectious virus will consideradly slow down for a nice Christmas for us all. We all know in December NPHET will be predictating ther usual Doomsday scenario.

    Today has been a complete over-reaction destroying many in the state including me.


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    #1868
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    thebaz wrote: »

    Today has been a complete over-reaction destroying many in the state including me.

    Speaking of complete over reactions


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    #1869
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,467 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    thebaz wrote: »
    What do you think is going to happen when you increase testing of an infectious disease ? - of course cases will increase -

    NPHET are now predicting 50 cases a day for Christmas - nonsense, as if an infectious virus will consideradly slow down for a nice Christmas for us all. We all know in December NPHET will be predictating ther usual Doomsday scenario.

    Today has been a complete over-reaction destroying many in the state including me.

    Cases are increasing because we have let down our guard - we are not following the restrictions in high enough numbers.
    If the restrictions we had in place for the past few months were followed, we would have had manageable numbers as we did for most of the past few months.
    The infectious virus requires us to transmit it, cut down on close contact, less transmission.
    There's no reason we won't be down at 50 cases a day by December IF people follow the restrictions.

    I am sorry for your troubles.


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    #1870
    bush
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,878 ✭✭✭bush


    I dont think this lockdown is going to have the effect they desire


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    #1871
    thebaz
    Registered Users Posts: 13,602 ✭✭✭✭thebaz


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Speaking of complete over reactions

    well I'm at breaking point - work all gone - still have to pay my ****ing rent , but that doesnt matter - just over reacting. - off alcohol for a few years , thinking of giving up on sobriety - so yeah over -reacting


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    #1872
    Humilde
    Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭Humilde


    kippy wrote: »
    Probably very few.
    It can take 2-5 weeks after first displaying symptoms before hospitilisation is required.
    But a percentage of that number will end up in hospital and a percentage of that will end up in ICU for a number of days/weeks.
    That percentage will depend on a few factors but it's too late doing something about it 4 weeks down the line when they are in hospital and the daily numbers are up around 1600 or maybe more...........and then a percentage of them will end up in hospital etc etc.

    I don't think you understand what is going on. Correct me if I am wrong.

    OK. So you are saying that its not a true reflection to give us the data for this week. Then why not take the positive cases from 4 or 5 weeks ago and tell us how many of those had to go to hospital or had to go to ICU? Let me guess, its not available.


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    #1873
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,467 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    Humilde wrote: »
    OK. So you are saying that its not a true reflection to give us the data for this week. Then why not take the positive cases from 4 or 5 weeks ago and tell us how many of those had to go to hospital or had to go to ICU? Let me guess, its not available.

    I've given you the data for this week of cases, overall tests, hospital and ICU admissions.
    No, I cannot provide data that states how many daily cases 2-5 weeks ago result in a daily ICU admission today because that is a difficult data set to capture and more importantly a difficult data set to present in any readable/logical format.
    They use percentages to work out those. In that we know a certain percentage of everyone who tests positive will end up in hospital and a percentage will end up in ICU. The younger those positive cases, the lesser percentages are involved, however as positive cases increase the age profile of the cases is increasing.

    Again, nothing too complex to understand there.

    There's a pile of stats here that may help you understand things further. Table 2 contains stats for age groups, percentages hospitilised and requiring further treatment etc are all in there based off of earlier in the year.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7480279/


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    #1874
    Richard Hillman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    The NPHET jobs will still be there this time next year and they can top up the salarys with their book deals. Their social circle will be fine too, they work in medicine, or finance or IT, they all be fine.

    It's the rest of us scum that suffer from their decisions. We are just numbers to them. The only reason they want us alive is to keep their stats looking good. They would rather us dead.


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    #1875
    Humilde
    Registered Users Posts: 65 ✭✭Humilde


    kippy wrote: »
    I've given you the data for this week of cases, overall tests, hospital and ICU admissions.
    No, I cannot provide data that states how many daily cases 2-5 weeks ago result in a daily ICU admission today because that is a difficult data set to capture and more importantly a difficult data set to present in any readable/logical format.
    They use percentages to work out those. In that we know a certain percentage of everyone who tests positive will end up in hospital and a percentage will end up in ICU. The younger those positive cases, the lesser percentages are involved, however as positive cases increase the age profile of the cases is increasing.

    Again, nothing too complex to understand there.

    There's a pile of stats here that may help you understand things further. Table 2 contains stats for age groups, percentages hospitilised and requiring further treatment etc are all in there based off of earlier in the year.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7480279/

    Press on this link and things will become a lot clearer to you. Its the bottom line on the data, collated by Ivor Cummins. After viewing this, if you still believe that lockdowns are the way to go and that the Government and Health authorities are doing a good job, then I think you probably need some medical attention also.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPmWYFlUK54


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    #1876
    thebiggestjim
    Registered Users Posts: 345 ✭✭thebiggestjim


    thebaz wrote: »
    well I'm at breaking point - work all gone - still have to pay my ****ing rent , but that doesnt matter - just over reacting. - off alcohol for a few years , thinking of giving up on sobriety - so yeah over -reacting

    Please don't do this Mr Baz. As bad as things are we know this won't help. It may take some time but this will turn around.


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    #1877
    FrogmanBegins
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 57 ✭✭FrogmanBegins


    thebaz wrote: »
    well I'm at breaking point - work all gone - still have to pay my ****ing rent , but that doesnt matter - just over reacting. - off alcohol for a few years , thinking of giving up on sobriety - so yeah over -reacting

    Just remember now all the ones putting you down and belittling you are the ones sitting at the kitchen table in their big houses working from home without a care in the world. Don't let the ****ers get you down


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    #1878
    Captain_Crash
    Registered Users Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭Captain_Crash


    thebaz wrote: »
    well I'm at breaking point - work all gone - still have to pay my ****ing rent , but that doesnt matter - just over reacting. - off alcohol for a few years , thinking of giving up on sobriety - so yeah over -reacting

    Dude! Pm me if you want my number to chat! It’s hard now for us but don’t give up! You’ve an island full of people here and giving up seems the easiest choice at times but it’s never the right choice! Got your back bro!


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    #1879
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Richard Hillman wrote: »
    The NPHET jobs will still be there this time next year and they can top up the salarys with their book deals. Their social circle will be fine too, they work in medicine, or finance or IT, they all be fine.

    It's the rest of us scum that suffer from their decisions. We are just numbers to them. The only reason they want us alive is to keep their stats looking good. They would rather us dead.

    The ****in state of this.

    You'd rather the stats were bad, and many more dead, to stick it to the group of public health experts?

    That's embarrassing. Embarrassing.


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    #1880
    Richard Hillman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    The ****in state of this.

    You'd rather the stats were bad, and many more dead, to stick it to the group of public health experts?

    That's embarrassing. Embarrassing.


    Stalin sent man after man, 3 men to 1 gun to retake Stalingrad. Was it the nice thing to do? No. Was he right? Yes.


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    #1881
    The_Brood
    Closed Accounts Posts: 838 ✭✭✭The_Brood


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The ****in state of this.

    You'd rather the stats were bad, and many more dead, to stick it to the group of public health experts?

    That's embarrassing. Embarrassing.

    'Public health experts' that are lying directly to the people's faces that schools are not spreading the virus. They are criminals and political pawns. They abandon all reason and common sense to lie to you. Or perhaps they would like to present evidence why Ireland's pupils stand alone in the globe as being immune from the virus?

    'Experts.' Dear me.


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    #1882
    NIMAN
    Registered Users Posts: 33,184 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Interesting that many think the schools are hot spots of the virus, despite us being told by NPHET they aren't a significant driver.

    Nphet have all the stats compiled since March. They know about every single case and hospitalised person. Every person in ICU and everyone who died.

    Publish these stats. Tell us where the virus was spread.

    Was it the hairdresser?
    The bookies?
    At weddings?
    At communion parties?
    At gaa celebrations?
    In schools?

    You know, ffs stop hiding the data and tell us.

    Can we put in a FOI request? Why isn't there one decent journo left to ask Dr Tony to tell us what we need to know.


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    #1883
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    kippy wrote: »
    No doubt Coronavirus in School. There are fact there to support that. But the transmission is low and the issue is with adult behaviour. Not kids. Fairly obvious to see from some of the activities of the last few weeks.
    Most of the cases I am aware of stemmed from hen parties, college parties/gatherings, post GAA match get togethers and the resultant household transmission from them. Some of this has ended up in schools but schools have not been the vector, however as cases increase in the community it is inevitable more will be in schools.
    One would hope that the one week closure of schools coupled with adults adhering to whatever restrictions come in, will have a good impact on numbers in general and get us back on track.

    Some facts in here btw:
    https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19%2014%20day%20epidemiology%20report_Website_18102020.pdf

    Thanks for the link. Some useful information there.

    However, the point I was making was that the HSE actually use different risk criteria for schools than they do anything else.

    For some inexplicable reason, children who are wearing masks in a school setting are not regarded as close contacts until they have spent 2 hours in close proximity with an infected person.

    Yet, wearing masks, those same children would be regarded as close contacts in 15 minutes in other controlled settings, such as cafes, etc.

    In any study, you cannot expect accurate results if you use different criteria for the subjects.
    Yet, that is precisely what is happening when deciding who is a close contact, and therefore eligible for testing where a case is found in a school.

    I know of two schools in my own County where students were not deemed close contacts, yet developed symptoms within days.

    Finally, lockdown ended on 29th June for most of society. Schools didn't open until late August, therefore there would obviously be a time lag in increase in cases when you compare the schoolgoing age groups, and those of the older population.

    I've said it before, I'll say it again.

    We know the transmission methods of the virus. We can certainly draw on past experience of both transmission methods to understand that children can, and do, infect one another - ask any mother who tried preventing cross infection in the home. Same applies to hospitals.

    Yet we are meant to belive that there is "no evidence" of transmission in schools

    You can't monitor evidence of transmission in schools if the risk factors are considered differently. Nor can you adequately contain outbreaks quickly. Which is a huge concern


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    #1884
    Richard Hillman
    Registered Users Posts: 12,033 ✭✭✭✭Richard Hillman


    They don't want transparency because they know its all bull****. They don't tell us that the deaths were of people who were already a deaths door because that won't help them.

    Theres not even an independent adjudicator for the numbers released daily. They could be plucking them out of a little bingo machine for all we know


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    #1885
    ILoveYourVibes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,176 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    Not of the people but of the govt yes.


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    #1886
    ILoveYourVibes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,176 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    Richard Hillman wrote: »

    Theres not even an independent adjudicator for the numbers released daily. They could be plucking them out of a little bingo machine for all we know
    This isn't the lottery.


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    #1887
    NIMAN
    Registered Users Posts: 33,184 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    The numbers for positive tests the last few weeks have been very high. They kept using the word exponential growth.

    So why are the ICU numbers not going up much at all?

    This just isn't killing people in big numbers this time round.


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    #1888
    ILoveYourVibes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,176 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    NIMAN wrote: »
    The numbers for positive tests the last few weeks have been very high. They kept using the word exponential growth.

    So why are the ICU numbers not going up much at all?

    This just isn't killing people in big numbers this time round.
    Because its young people. The schools are back. Teens.


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    #1889
    NIMAN
    Registered Users Posts: 33,184 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    ILoveYourVibes wrote: »
    Because its young people. The schools are back. Teens.

    And so would it not be a lot cheaper and easier to let us continue as we are doing and try to protect the vulnerable for the next few months?


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    #1890
    Rubberchikken
    Registered Users Posts: 5,083 ✭✭✭Rubberchikken


    Lockdown for next number of weeks will probably lower figures then what happens?


    The figures go up again ...and another lockdown.

    Are people and this country capable of dealing with this indefinitely?
    I'm ok. I have my job. It's not going anywhere. Our mortgage is paid. We have food on our table. Our bills are paid. And most importantly, to me, my family are healthy. I don't want any more than that.

    But my heart breaks for those who are out of work because of all this. Those who are finding the whole thing upsetting, frustrating, and scary.

    The people making these restriction decisions may think they're doing it in the best interest of the country but I don't think so.


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    #1891
    Happydays2020
    Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Happydays2020


    Interesting

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/nphet-letter-predicts-50-daily-cases-by-christmas-after-six-week-lockdown-1.4385504

    R rate in Dublin is 1.
    By 31st October, Nphet warned there would be 450-600 people in hospital and 80-110 people in intensive care.

    Given that 31 October is already set in stone with existing infections it will be interesting to see what is actually the outcome in terms of numbers.


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