Have NPHET lost the attention of people?

kippy

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

Is there really going to be an effective and safe and widely distributed vaccine by January?? That seems so optimistic. These things usually take many months and i havent read anything about a vaccine arriving so soon.

No there isn't.

Steve012

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

Is there really going to be an effective and safe and widely distributed vaccine by January?? That seems so optimistic. These things usually take many months and i havent read anything about a vaccine arriving so soon.

BioNTech/ Fosun Pharma/ Pfizer going this week for FDA approval,


University of Oxford/AstraZeneca very close bout a month off going for FDA approval,


Been following them for months, If anything the oxford one seems to be very efficient.

Steve012

kippy wrote: »

No there isn't.

There's no Panto this years but.... Oh yes there is.

.anon.

Swear to God, if the government takes the advice of the NPHET 'experts' and puts us under another lockdown, I'll be boycotting it by staying at home and refusing to go anywhere until they relax the restrictions.

Humilde

Turtwig wrote: »

They have said over and over and over and over and over and over and over again that non covid healthcare is a priority. The only way for this to function is to keep covid out of hospitals.

Your suggestion they don't give a fig is disingenuous. Even people who advocate herd immunity style approach give a fig. The vast majority of people want the best health outcome for their society. To suggest the group you disagree with doesn't is just toxic laziness for what is a really serious complicated issue.

Can you please outline in detail the steps by which non covid health care can function like normal because every country not just Ireland is grappling with this problem.

Most of the main western democratic countries are making a pure mess of this, Ireland being one. So comparing Ireland to the UK, or France, or Spain is pointless. "two wrongs dont make a right". I would talk about Sweden but I know already that people who think like you do don't really want to discuss Sweden. Right now there are only 30 covid patients in ICU in all of Ireland. Do you seriously think its acceptable to say that the rest of the health service cant function because of 30 ICU patients and a relatively similar low level of hospitalisations? My take on all of this is that there will be no second wave of mass deaths. Deaths will increase due to the winter flu season, and as we now know, this PCR test is notoriously unreliable so expect rising deaths to be attributed incorrectly to Covid just to make the numbers seem more serious. But even with the massaging of the figures, there will still not be a second wave similar to the first one in terms of deaths or hospitalisations. When we get to March or April next year, the governments will declare that they have "beaten the enemy" with their lockdown policies even though they had no effect whatsoever. So, in reality, they know that they can never be proved wrong and its a win win for them. They are probably writing their state of the nation speeches already, declaring that the war is over but that its now time for everyone to put their shoulder to the wheel and put on the green shirt to pay the insane bill which is coming down the line. Look, the reality is that the majority of society will always defer to what their government tells them. Just think of Nazi Germany. So the same thing is happening here. There is now a fear amongst politicians and anyone dependent on state jobs or appointments to go against the official line. Its genuinely bizarre whats going on and extremely worrying.

kippy

Humilde wrote: »

Most of the main western democratic countries are making a pure mess of this, Ireland being one. So comparing Ireland to the UK, or France, or Spain is pointless. "two wrongs dont make a right". I would talk about Sweden but I know already that people who think like you do don't really want to discuss Sweden. Right now there are only 30 covid patients in ICU in all of Ireland. Do you seriously think its acceptable to say that the rest of the health service cant function because of 30 ICU patients and a relatively similar low level of hospitalisations? My take on all of this is that there will be no second wave of mass deaths. Deaths will increase due to the winter flu season, and as we now know, this PCR test is notoriously unreliable so expect rising deaths to be attributed incorrectly to Covid just to make the numbers seem more serious. But even with the massaging of the figures, there will still not be a second wave similar to the first one in terms of deaths or hospitalisations. When we get to March or April next year, the governments will declare that they have "beaten the enemy" with their lockdown policies even though they had no effect whatsoever. So, in reality, they know that they can never be proved wrong and its a win win for them. They are probably writing their state of the nation speeches already, declaring that the war is over but that its now time for everyone to put their shoulder to the wheel and put on the green shirt to pay the insane bill which is coming down the line. Look, the reality is that the majority of society will always defer to what their government tells them. Just think of Nazi Germany. So the same thing is happening here. There is now a fear amongst politicians and anyone dependent on state jobs or appointments to go against the official line. Its genuinely bizarre whats going on and extremely worrying.

What's bizarre about looking at numbers and facts, and predicting that as things continue the numbers of hospitalisations and ICU bed usage will ramp up as the virus spreads withing the community and will eventually impact on more vulnerable people....it will be too late to do to much about it in a few weeks time.
What's worrying is that a larger cohort of people don't think restrictions apply to them which brings about more restrictions for the entire nation.
We could and should be able to live with the restrictions we've had in place in July/August and September....but can't.

Humilde

karlitob wrote: »

It’s hard to know where to start with this ignorance. I suppose we should all be thankful that despite your incredible intelligence and ability that you didn’t bother to become a politician, doctor, nurse or senior civil servant.

No one needs you opinion of whether a patient is vented or not. While a lot of patients are, not all patients are. It’s not a defining criteria for admission, treatment or discharge. I presume your conspiracy theory is that everyone working in icu is in on some scam - including highly trained healthcare professionals all over ireland and the world - that they’ve all agreed to admit patients who don’t need icu to make the whole situation seem worse.


Your point about only 30 being admitted and that this doesn’t constitute an emergency is incredibly ignorant. It’s only 30 because of everything we’re doing to keep the virus at bay. March April and May shows how many could be in an icu. The problem with Covid is it’s infectiousness - a point that seems to escape your enormous intellect. It can exponentially rise which means that 30 can climb quickly. Very quickly. Sure Lombardy has one of the best health services in the world and it was overwhelmed. You’re ignorance here suggests that we should get rid of all road traffic protections - seat belts, kids car seats, speed limits - because only 230 people die each year.

Deaths haven’t gone through the roof. I wouldn’t expect you to know that. Details below. Though I doubt you know how to read it.

https://www.euromomo.eu/

I've seen it all now when you compare seatbelt use, kids car seats and speed limits to the economic and psychological battery which is going on at the moment. "Sticks and stones" my friend in reply to your cowardly attempts to insult and discredit me. I wont bother replying to you any more as you're obviously not capable of civil debate.

Steve012

Humilde wrote: »

I've seen it all now when you compare seatbelt use, kids car seats and speed limits to the economic and psychological battery which is going on at the moment. "Sticks and stones" my friend in reply to your cowardly attempts to insult and discredit me. I wont bother replying to you any more as you're obviously not capable of civil debate.

We need to civil in this world , god dam it

Humilde

kippy wrote: »

What's bizarre about looking at numbers and facts, and predicting that as things continue the numbers of hospitalisations and ICU bed usage will ramp up as the virus spreads withing the community and will eventually impact on more vulnerable people....it will be too late to do to much about it in a few weeks time.
What's worrying is that a larger cohort of people don't think restrictions apply to them which brings about more restrictions for the entire nation.
We could and should be able to live with the restrictions we've had in place in July/August and September....but can't.

Restrictions can only stop this virus through full lockdown. The logical conclusion is that if we say that we can't lockdown forever given the economic and other health problems it causes, then the result is that lockdowns don't work, period. Maybe the penny will drop some day with the government but I doubt it. I'd say that other countries now know this and are unofficially now looking for herd immunity.

NaFirinne

There probably just following a modified but similar roadmap to the one below, this is a plan from other countries.

– Phase in secondary lock down restrictions on a rolling basis, starting with major metropolitan areas first and expanding outward. Expected by November 2020.



– Rush the acquisition of (or construction of) isolation facilities across every province and territory. Expected by December 2020.– Daily new cases of COVID-19 will surge beyond capacity of testing, including increases in COVID related deaths following the same growth curves. Expected by end of November 2020.
– Complete and total secondary lock down (much stricter than the first and second rolling phase restrictions). Expected by end of December 2020

– early January 2021.– Reform and expansion of the unemployment program to be transitioned into the universal basic income program.

Expected by Q1 2021.– Projected COVID-19 mutation and/or co-infection with secondary virus (referred to as COVID-21) leading to a third wave with much higher mortality rate and higher rate of infection.

Expected by February 2021.– Daily new cases of COVID-21 hospitalizations and COVID-19 and COVID-21 related deaths will exceed medical care facilities capacity.

Expected Q1–Q2 2021.– Enhanced lock down restrictions (referred to as Third Lock Down) will be implemented. Full travel restrictions will be imposed (including inter-province and inter-city). Expected Q2 2021.– Transitioning of individuals into the universal basic income program. Expected mid Q2 2021.– Projected supply chain break downs, inventory shortages, large economic instability. Expected late Q2 2021.

– Deployment of military personnel into major metropolitan areas as well as all major roadways to establish travel checkpoints. Restrict travel and movement. Provide logistical support to the area. Expected by Q3 2021.

Steve012

Humilde wrote: »

Restrictions can only stop this virus through full lockdown. The logical conclusion is that if we say that we can't lockdown forever given the economic and other health problems it causes, then the result is that lockdowns don't work, period. Maybe the penny will drop some day with the government but I doubt it. I'd say that other countries now know this and are unofficially now looking for herd immunity.

No forever lockdown, Vaccines will stop it in bout 5 months,

kippy

Humilde wrote: »

Restrictions can only stop this virus through full lockdown. The logical conclusion is that if we say that we can't lockdown forever given the economic and other health problems it causes, then the result is that lockdowns don't work, period. Maybe the penny will drop some day with the government but I doubt it. I'd say that other countries now know this and are unofficially now looking for herd immunity.

Again, it's not about stopping the virus. That isn't practical or feasible given all the know variables at play.
No one is saying implement maximum restrictions for ever.
Restrictions work in reducing virus cases once they are followed. We've been there and we've managed for a number of months as restrictions have been unwound.
Very little is known about herd immunity or otherwise and to follow that path with a Novel virus is just daft.

Steve012

NaFirinne wrote: »

There probably just following a modified but similar roadmap to the one below, this is a plan from other countries.

– Phase in secondary lock down restrictions on a rolling basis, starting with major metropolitan areas first and expanding outward. Expected by November 2020.



– Rush the acquisition of (or construction of) isolation facilities across every province and territory. Expected by December 2020.– Daily new cases of COVID-19 will surge beyond capacity of testing, including increases in COVID related deaths following the same growth curves. Expected by end of November 2020.
– Complete and total secondary lock down (much stricter than the first and second rolling phase restrictions). Expected by end of December 2020

– early January 2021.– Reform and expansion of the unemployment program to be transitioned into the universal basic income program.

Expected by Q1 2021.– Projected COVID-19 mutation and/or co-infection with secondary virus (referred to as COVID-21) leading to a third wave with much higher mortality rate and higher rate of infection.

Expected by February 2021.– Daily new cases of COVID-21 hospitalizations and COVID-19 and COVID-21 related deaths will exceed medical care facilities capacity.

Expected Q1–Q2 2021.– Enhanced lock down restrictions (referred to as Third Lock Down) will be implemented. Full travel restrictions will be imposed (including inter-province and inter-city). Expected Q2 2021.– Transitioning of individuals into the universal basic income program. Expected mid Q2 2021.– Projected supply chain break downs, inventory shortages, large economic instability. Expected late Q2 2021.

– Deployment of military personnel into major metropolitan areas as well as all major roadways to establish travel checkpoints. Restrict travel and movement. Provide logistical support to the area. Expected by Q3 2021.

That was cool, like a movie, thank fck it won't be anything like that, but thanks for the movie version

Humilde

kippy wrote: »

What's bizarre about looking at numbers and facts, and predicting that as things continue the numbers of hospitalisations and ICU bed usage will ramp up as the virus spreads withing the community and will eventually impact on more vulnerable people....it will be too late to do to much about it in a few weeks time.
What's worrying is that a larger cohort of people don't think restrictions apply to them which brings about more restrictions for the entire nation.
We could and should be able to live with the restrictions we've had in place in July/August and September....but can't.

If you read my post again, you'll see that I refer to the fact that so many people follow blindly the advice of government without question as being bizarre. And by the way, back in March the epidemiological models were promising biblical numbers of dead in all countries, and they were patently miles away from what actually happened. Even with the current surge in "cases", we are still not seeing corresponding surges hospitalisations and deaths. If vulnerable people are properly protected, which the government criminally failed to do back in March, then I can assure you that the surge in deaths will not occur.

NaFirinne

Yep - it's a movie

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11246434/

Hopefully won't be anything like that.

Steve012

kippy wrote: »

Again, it's not about stopping the virus. That isn't practical or feasible given all the know variables at play.
No one is saying implement maximum restrictions for ever.
Restrictions work in reducing virus cases once they are followed. We've been there and we've managed for a number of months as restrictions have been unwound.
Very little is known about herd immunity or otherwise and to follow that path with a Novel virus is just daft.

Novel Virus is what people don't get... "it's just the flu" "its only a bug" Yeah sure pal 👍 a new one, a Novel one with no treatment ready from the off.

Restrictions will work , some proper juggling balancing act is needed this winter,

Before too many business's close for good. Unemployment rising high by the week.

Steve012

NaFirinne wrote: »

Yep - it's a movie

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11246434/

Hopefully won't be anything like that.

Here's the real Movie ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0S21SNM78w

kippy

Humilde wrote: »

If you read my post again, you'll see that I refer to the fact that so many people follow blindly the advice of government without question as being bizarre. And by the way, back in March the epidemiological models were promising biblical numbers of dead in all countries, and they were patently miles away from what actually happened. Even with the current surge in "cases", we are still not seeing corresponding surges hospitalisations and deaths. If vulnerable people are properly protected, which the government criminally failed to do back in March, then I can assure you that the surge in deaths will not occur.

Those projections were based on continuing without mitigation....how is this not obvious?
The numbers didn't come about for a number of reasons..main ones were implementation and adherence to regulations.
We are starting to see cases his hospitals and ICU as inevitably more at risk groups will get the virus as it gains traction within the community. What is so difficult to understand here?

NaFirinne

kippy wrote: »

Those projections were based on continuing without mitigation....how is this not obvious?
The numbers didn't come about for a number of reasons..main ones were implementation and adherence to regulations.
We are starting to see cases his hospitals and ICU as inevitably more at risk groups will get the virus as it gains traction within the community. What is so difficult to understand here?

Sweden ran that experiment did they not....and somewhat the US also.

Humilde

kippy wrote: »

Those projections were based on continuing without mitigation....how is this not obvious?
The numbers didn't come about for a number of reasons..main ones were implementation and adherence to regulations.
We are starting to see cases his hospitals and ICU as inevitably more at risk groups will get the virus as it gains traction within the community. What is so difficult to understand here?

Whats so difficult to understand is why we are locking down when we already know that the previous lockdown didn't work. The WHO (who I don't have much respect for anyway) is now saying that lockdowns are "not a good long term strategy". So does this mean that the Irish government is going against the WHO advice?

karlitob

Humilde wrote: »

I've seen it all now when you compare seatbelt use, kids car seats and speed limits to the economic and psychological battery which is going on at the moment. "Sticks and stones" my friend in reply to your cowardly attempts to insult and discredit me. I wont bother replying to you any more as you're obviously not capable of civil debate.

And once again you haven’t bothered to engage on the point. Throw out an assertion without evidence. Don’t like the response. Get your knickers in a twist because I don’t care about your opinion of who is or isn’t vented in an icu and then attack that as if all opinions are created equal.

It would be civil to debate in a debate. But you haven’t bothered.

And I’m not your friend.

kippy

Humilde wrote: »

Whats so difficult to understand is why we are locking down when we already know that the previous lockdown didn't work. The WHO (who I don't have much respect for anyway) is now saying that lockdowns are "not a good long term strategy". So does this mean that the Irish government is going against the WHO advice?

We introduced various regulations, got the virus under control, started to relax those regulations and maintained control for what I would say was close to 3 or 4 months, now the numbers are such that our health service and economy are both at risk if we do not reintroduce restrictions....Lockdowns and increased restrictions are not a good long term strategy. Of course they are not but in situations of rising numbers, reduced compliance and no sign of a vaccine they are the only tool available. You won't find anyone at WHO stating that it's a bad idea to increases restrictions while the numbers head towards overloading a health service.
The previous restrictions DID work.....

kippy

NaFirinne wrote: »

Sweden ran that experiment did they not....and somewhat the US also.

Neither have intentionally or publicly ran that experiment.

NaFirinne

Humilde wrote: »

Whats so difficult to understand is why we are locking down when we already know that the previous lockdown didn't work. The WHO (who I don't have much respect for anyway) is now saying that lockdowns are "not a good long term strategy". So does this mean that the Irish government is going against the WHO advice?

I do have a gut feeling that this 2nd lockdown won't really make any difference.


Other countries are doing the exact same thing.


Sounds like they are trying to reduce the number of deaths and spread until a vaccine comes along. ( What else can the do at this stage. The hospital system can't handle high numbers)


However how much damage is these lockdowns doing with all those elective surgeries being postponed...a lot of which lead to life threatening conditions when not acted upon.


This virus is changing the world and I ain't sure we will ever go back to normal even with the so called vaccines.

kippy

NaFirinne wrote: »

I do have a gut feeling that this 2nd lockdown won't really make any difference.


Other countries are doing the exact same thing.


Sounds like they are trying to reduce the number of deaths and spread until a vaccine comes along.


However how much damage is these lockdowns doing with all those elective surgeries being postponed...a lot of which lead to life threatening conditions when not acted upon.


This virus is changing the world and I ain't sure we will ever go back to normal even with the so called vaccines.

The reason restrictions don't make a difference is not because the virus has changed or the science behind the restrictions is different, it's simply because not enough people follow them.
Restrictions do damage. They change the way we live our lives. Again a balancing act.

NaFirinne

kippy wrote: »

The reason restrictions don't make a difference is not because the virus has changed or the science behind the restrictions is different, it's simply because not enough people follow them.
Restrictions do damage. They change the way we live our lives. Again a balancing act.

I've been following it from the start....staying home since march....only go out to do the neccesary shopping...that's it.


I can see why people start to fatigue from it....not fair for some of us to follow the guidelines when others don't.


Thing is they still won't with the 2nd lockdown....so how is it going too work?

kippy

NaFirinne wrote: »

I've been following it from the start....staying home since march....only go out to do the neccesary shopping...that's it.


I can see why people start to fatigue from it....not fair for some of us to follow the guidelines when others don't.


Thing is they still won't with the 2nd lockdown....so how is it going too work?

I assume that you've seen what the restrictions do?
One one level they allow people make informed decisions. When that's not happening they take away certain options from people. Next level on from that is more enforcement either at the business level or less likely at the individual level.
Closing pubs and restaurants takes that option away from individuals and the businesses that may have been allowing too many to convene. GAA match is another. If there are no matches, there's no travelling to matches, lads trying to get into grounds or stand together on walls and so on.
It is everyone who ends up 'suffering' because s percentage cannot make the right decision.


Don't get me wrong. I one hundred percent see how people are fatigued and why there's a lot of fear for jobs, income and health.

Nothing is easy here for almost anyone.

karlitob

Happydays2020 wrote: »

I have provided above a link to and extract from independent analysis from the EU Commission on the stage of the health service. And they are not an outlier.

I know it is complicated, I know that there are structural difficulties and I know there are vested interests.

But pretending all is great when we are being told that the reason we need to have a more severe lockdown than any other country in Europe is due to the capacity and capability of our healths service then yes I will be critical and yes taxpayers have a right to be critical..

Haha - was waiting for that report to be trotted out.

I never said it wasn’t cost effective - I implied it wasn’t due to the mismanagement that you say it did.

The reasons for poor cost effectiveness are vast but in effect, ireland has had years and years of under or no investment in health services resulting in much higher current costs than other health services. Read Irish Apartheid, Healthcare Inequality in Ireland 2009 by Sara Burke for some in sights.

While this was an eu report it clearly references reports by DPER. My point is previous posts is that this is government underfunding for years expecting the health service to provide services without sufficient funding or investment. The opinion of one of the main government bodies about that investment is hardly a unbiased view.

For example,

Here’s the unfounded capital plan. How is the HSE supposed to provide care when there’s insufficient beds. We’ve the same population as scotland - we’ve 11-12000, beds they’ve 25000 beds. You will appreciate that we can’t build 50 more hospitals (double what we have) to meet that need anytime soon. The government reduced bed numbers in the 80s through hospital closures. You see how long it took government to get going on the children’s hospital. What are the managers supposed to do here in your insightful opinion? How’s is the abf funding referenced above in your report gonna magic up a few 1000 beds and staff to improve waiting lists and EDs?


The points referenced above - where is the nation that has effectively implemented all of those? ABF has not been particularly effectively implemented in any country? Who has solved the big pharmacist cost? Why you would you think a small island can do it where no one else has? Where is the country with the ideal cost effectiveness that you do crave to pay your taxes in?


I never said all was great - I specifically referenced that above. But you haven’t said anything good about your national health service except mouth off about things that few understand and blame it all on ‘managers’. It’s not fair, it’s not reasonable.

karlitob

MattDamonIsOK wrote: »

Yes NPHET and the government have lost the attention of a large section of the public.

My wider social circle through playing football, on WhatsApp groups, family, friends and work colleagues are all of the same opinion over the last few days -

I couldn’t give a rats arse what level comes out tomorrow, if it’s level 8. I’ll be getting on with my life and working remotely, if I can’t go to the gym I’ll exercise at home.

But at weekends I’ll be driving out of the county to see the in-laws, or you can damn well be sure I’ll be going over the border to visit my own family and get out of the urban jungle to do the head a bit of good. Not mixing with a lot of people, just getting on with life, wearing our masks and washing our hands in all settings we are asked to. No issue with that.
If I’m turned away by the Garda, I’ll be going another way.

This isn’t in any way an act of defiance, it’s just a true reflection Of the thoughts of a lot people at the moment, I don’t think these experts realize that. I saw one earlier Anthony steynes or whatever his name is, saying he “believes people don’t mind doing another 8-10 week lockdown if they’re given clear messages” I almost spat out my tea.
Completely out of touch.

That’s just the reality of it, I won’t be held back for any Mary or John. And we have elderly at risk members on both me and my partners side.

If some people want to go and raid the supermarkets again now tomorrow evening like eejits and hibernate like a fat squirrel then be my guest, just don’t expect the rest of us to, and mind your own business when you do, worry about yourself.

It’s interesting to read this post by swapping the word ‘I’ (Or ‘me’ or ‘is’) for words ‘The virus’.

MEGA BRO WOLF 5000

Recommendations coming through this morning are for a level 4+ or 4.5 or 4. whatever because it’s total bollox, they invented these levels and are now not sticking to them.