Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

Away With The Fairies · 20-10-2020 12:39am

I'm an essential worker but hope I lose my job. I just want to hibernate to fcuk.

FrogmanBegins · 20-10-2020 12:45am

440Hertz wrote: »

So what’s the plan anyway?

We lock down for 4 to 6 weeks, get the curve flattened, clap ourselves on the back and go out and get riddled with coronavirus again in 3 months time, having done absolutely nothing to prevent a relapse ?

I want to see concrete plans, not some wishy-washy nonsense imagining there’ll be full solution to this in a few months. Realism is needed ASAP

We alternate between level 2-3 and fire and brimstone lockdown until our economy and deficit is more ****ed than it already is.

TheDenialTwist · 20-10-2020 12:46am

Golfman64 wrote: »

But can we play golf?

Eamon has said "golf courses will be closed"

So, if you own your own Golf Course or If you've a Trackman you can play away to your hearts content

completedit · 20-10-2020 12:46am

440Hertz wrote: »

So what’s the plan anyway?

We lock down for 4 to 6 weeks, get the curve flattened, clap ourselves on the back and go out and get riddled with coronavirus again in 3 months time, having done absolutely nothing to prevent a relapse ?

I want to see concrete plans, not some wishy-washy nonsense imagining there’ll be full solution to this in a few months. Realism is needed ASAP

He pretty much said we will be going down this path until a safe vaccine is released. Virus brought 'under control'; we open up; heightened emergency as cases rise and we hear the usual moralistic ****e talk of such and such a county being 'riddled' with it, before invariably it spreads and we go into lockdown again

Away With The Fairies · 20-10-2020 12:50am

completedit wrote: »

He pretty much said we will be going down this path until a safe vaccine is released. Virus brought 'under control'; we open up; heightened emergency as cases rise and we hear the usual moralistic ****e talk of such and such a county being 'riddled' with it, before invariably it spreads and we go into lockdown again

There's talk of the vaccine not giving immunity. From what I understand, is you may not get it bad. So people will still be catching this. And with re-infections. We can't keep doing this over and over.

KrustyUCC · 20-10-2020 12:50am

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Please note that R can fall very quickly indeed, and predictive models with various assumptions can only estimate it from historical data. It most real world situations it generally does not correlate to the daily cases. Consider for example a thought experiment in which each member of the population self isolates at a moment in time. The R number has instantly dropped to zero. Even though there will still be cases in the following days and weeks, they are the consequences of R before the isolation event. It is this effect that is sought in a relatively strong restrictive programme as the one being implemented on Wednesday. R reaching 0.5 for six weeks within the time frame outlines is possible. My personal feeling is that it will not quite be achieved, but will be close to it. Probably sufficiently for a relaxation for the Christmas period, and an unlocking more in the line of that enacted in other European countries in the spring rather than the slower one seen in the Republic.

The likes of Peter Lund have said that we unlocked too quickly the last time despite being amongst the slowest if not the slowest in Europe

I'd be very surprised at a quick reopening but I'd like to be wrong

TheDenialTwist · 20-10-2020 12:55am

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I missed the discussion on this. Is it midnight Tuesday night or is it midnight on Wednesday night?

Leo obviously never learned when midnight Wednesday is :rolleyes:

The Press Conference was farcical, Leo kept saying midnight Tuesday while looking at MM in a perplexing manner.

MM clarified it's midnight Wednesday.

jams100 · 20-10-2020 12:56am

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The likes of Peter Lund have said that we unlocked too quickly the last time despite being amongst the slowest if not the slowest in Europe

I'd be very surprised at a quick reopening but I'd like to be wrong

Of all the people to do interviews he (Pete Lune) for me is the most annoying, always seems to know what everyone thinks, never knew a human could be telepathic

Away With The Fairies · 20-10-2020 12:56am

TheDenialTwist wrote: »

Leo obviously never learned when midnight Wednesday is :rolleyes:

The Press Conference was farcical, Leo kept saying midnight Tuesday while looking at MM in a perplexing manner.

MM clarified it's midnight Wednesday.

So it's midnight Wednesday/Thursday?

I Am The Law · 20-10-2020 12:57am

cannotlogin wrote: »

Well all we really learnt today is that as a nation we don't know when midnight on Wednesday actually begins!

I was always taught in school, that midnight was the start of the 24 hour day i.e. midnight Wednesday would be a minute after 11:59pm on Tuesday. Apparently not anymore!

Well I'm opening my presents on the 24th in that case.

cnocbui · 20-10-2020 12:57am

What's a bit of collateral damage, so long as we look strong?

London: People are dying at home from cancer, heart disease, dementia and other illnesses in unusually high numbers as the sick avoid hospitals and nursing homes despite assurances the health system has capacity to care for them.

New figures reveal some 116,282 people died in their own homes in England and Wales between January and early September - about 27,000 more than the five-year average.

However, COVID-19 accounted for just 2490 of those 27,000 "excess" deaths.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/sick-britons-avoid-hospitals-driving-up-deaths-at-home-during-the-pandemic-20201020-p566mn.html

Benimar · 20-10-2020 1:01am

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

So it's midnight Wednesday/Thursday?

Yes.

However, midnight Wednesday would be Tuesday into Wednesday, so they even screwed that up!

TheDenialTwist · 20-10-2020 1:02am

cannotlogin wrote: »

Well all we really learnt today is that as a nation we don't know when midnight on Wednesday actually begins!

I was always taught in school, that midnight was the start of the 24 hour day i.e. midnight Wednesday would be a minute after 11:59pm on Tuesday. Apparently not anymore!

I think what we all learned as a Nation tonight is that Leo doesn't know when midnight Wednesday is!

He kept repeating midnight Tuesday midnight (just trying to confuse matters even further).

Anyway as a stuttering MM finally clarified, it's midnight Wednesday that Level 5 will begin.

TheDenialTwist · 20-10-2020 1:04am

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

So it's midnight Wednesday/Thursday?

Yes that's correct

I Am The Law · 20-10-2020 1:05am

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

So it's midnight Wednesday/Thursday?

Yes midnight , Thursday.

D.Q · 20-10-2020 1:06am

Some seriously uninspiring people are leaders of our country haha

ILoveYourVibes · 20-10-2020 1:08am

They could have given us greater warning. They wasted two weeks on NOTHING. Now they give us 24 hrs notice.

Also i think they need to widen the scope of what is considered essential retail.

Also schools should be closed GAA should be stopped and various working environments like factories etc shut.

Also there is NO way this will be over in 6 weeks if they keep the schools gaa factories open etc.

I don't think they understand where most transmission is coming from.

And yer man stephen donnelly saying he wants to punch people in the face if they don't wear masks (which we should and i do of course) yet he has been twiddling his thumbs the last two weeks. GIVE OVER.

Are these people morons?

Anyone could see we should only have ever operated at level 3 at best in order to keep going ...and the schools should remain closed.

We are going to swing from one extreme to the other!

Fair enough we need to lockdown. I get it. I will do it.

But some warning would have been appreciated.

****ing idiots.

Danno · 20-10-2020 1:11am

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Not a hope we are opening up on Dec 1st. Under current restrictions best case scenario is we get to R 0.5 in 3 weeks time then hold that for remaining 3 weeks. That gets us to 400 cases a day. But if we open up we'll hit 1000 a day just in time for Christmas get togethers. Nphet will have to keep us in Level 5 to prevent that.

Reality bites.

There is one hope - if people stop going for swabs. Stop feeding the machine.

ILoveYourVibes · 20-10-2020 1:14am

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm trying to find info on this. As far as I can tell people from the US can still fly here without an issue. Only difference for them is the frequency of flights and the state of the country when they get here.

INSANE.

TheDenialTwist · 20-10-2020 1:16am

I Am The Law wrote: »

Yes midnight , Thursday.

Haha, you'll be opening your presents on the 26th if you're not careful

ILoveYourVibes · 20-10-2020 1:16am

So basically prof nolan wants us to keep swinging like a pendulum.

20-10-2020 1:18am

And so begins another game of whack-a-mole, total BS.

This virus is going to clean up at the next academy awards for most overly dramatic performance.

Antares35 · 20-10-2020 1:18am

Benimar wrote: »

Yes.

However, midnight Wednesday would be Tuesday into Wednesday, so they even screwed that up!

Midnight Wednesday is Wednesday into Thursday.

Strumms · 20-10-2020 1:18am

D.Q wrote: »

Some seriously uninspiring people are leaders of our country haha

Damned if they do, damned if they don’t...

Go hard to ensure health, saving lives, the big business **** attack and excuse.... the need to reopen... they throw in the mental health horse**** ( they don’t care about it actually, mine yours or anyone’s) , not an economic brain cell between them as relates to ANYTHING outside of their own potential for profitability.... and THESE people are bullying the nation, it’s politicians... bullying US. :rolleyes:

ILoveYourVibes · 20-10-2020 1:20am

US2 wrote: »

Not a hope. We weren't at 50 a day after 6 weeks of the first line lockdown which alot more people bought into.

Why is Martin keeping them open?

It basically means a lot more people will go into work who otherwise REEEEALLY don't have to be sure the kids are at school etc. That means stopping off for the coffee and sandwich in centra etc. Into the office. And back home into centra buy stuff for the dinner ..maybe collect the kids etc.

cameramonkey · 20-10-2020 1:21am

The infection fatality rate according to many studies internationally is about .3%. that is much lower than many thought at the outbreak of this virus. IFR in those under 70 is very much lower. If just under 1900 people have died in Ireland then the overall level of infection in Ireland must be much higher than 50,000, maybe under reported by a factor of 10.

ILoveYourVibes · 20-10-2020 1:22am

is_that_so wrote: »

That's December 8th. Sure we'll be at Level 1 then!

No we won't. Not a chance. This isn't level 5 ..its got bits of level 1 in it!

Antares35 · 20-10-2020 1:22am

So a "lead in" time of two days. Basically, a chance for the Neanderthals to go crazy stockpiling and packing out Smyth's and the likes. Can we expect a surge in two weeks then?

sReq | uTeK · 20-10-2020 1:23am

So the mortality rate is 5% that of its peak in early lockdown March and we are doing 5x the testing and yet we are locking down the country.

Sweden has a steady mortality rate of 2-3 per day and it has minimal restrictions.

I seen an article in the paper that one lad flew back and infected 56 people. It went on to say the went partying, played football matches congregated as usual....it didnt mention any of them being bed ridden and dying in the streets or being rushed to ICU.

bb1234567 · 20-10-2020 1:26am

MelbourneMan wrote: »

Please note that R can fall very quickly indeed, and predictive models with various assumptions can only estimate it from historical data. It most real world situations it generally does not correlate to the daily cases. Consider for example a thought experiment in which each member of the population self isolates at a moment in time. The R number has instantly dropped to zero. Even though there will still be cases in the following days and weeks, they are the consequences of R before the isolation event. It is this effect that is sought in a relatively strong restrictive programme as the one being implemented on Wednesday. R reaching 0.5 for six weeks within the time frame outlines is possible. My personal feeling is that it will not quite be achieved, but will be close to it. Probably sufficiently for a relaxation for the Christmas period, and an unlocking more in the line of that enacted in other European countries in the spring rather than the slower one seen in the Republic.

Israel got their outbreak under control astoundingly quickly. Must have been massive compliance to restrictions or else they got very lucky. Deaths are still large because of the lag but thats to be expected but their new caseloads have fallen off a cliff the last week or so.

Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

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