Covid 19 Part XXVI- 50,993 ROI (1,852 deaths) 28,040 NI (621 deaths) (19/10) Read OP

Beasty

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Thread I
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Thread X
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Thread XVI
Thread XVII
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Thread XIX
Thread XX
Thread XXI
Thread XXII
Thread XXIII
Thread XXIV
Thread XXV

The daily numbers

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In terms of thread content:

• Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
• Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
• Whatever your own views are please recognise others are entitled to different views., Even if at different extremes please do not try and repeatedly ram your views down the throats of those who have differing views
• Cut out any cover-up/conspiracy stuff. If you have a reliable source quote it (not just their words but provide a link to a reliable source) - otherwise your claims carry little if any weight. If you wish to discuss conspiracy theories we have a dedicated forum for that and it’s not this one
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• There is absolutely no good reason top try and forecast or predict daily numbers, so do not do so

And now a maths lesson:
“Average” is a non-defined term. “Mean” and “Median” are both mathematically defined terms.
Mean = the sum of a series of numbers divided by the number of items in the series
Hence the Mean of 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 7, 8 = (1+2+3+3+4+7+8)/7 = 4
Median is the midpoint number. In the above example it’s the 4th number in the sequence of 7 numbers – in this case 3
Both numbers are examples of “averages”. Not every average is the “Mean”, not every average is the “Median”, but every “Mean” and every “Median” number is an average

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Beasty

And so onto some facts and figures

In the 25 threads to date we've seen over 232,000 posts

January and February were dominated by single threads in the CA Forum

We saw off 10 threads in March, with the dedicated forum being set up in the second half of March

The last thread lasted just over 8 days

The forum has seen the following numbers of posts across all related topics
March 61,111
April 81,689
May 48,151
June 25,380
July 35,567
August 45,270
September 40,782
October, to date, over 24,500

We've have over 800 threads, but when I add in all those that have been merged into others it's nearer 1,400

So yes, Winter is coming and things are starting to ramp back up.....

CIARAN_BOYLE

New thread time.

Didn't the last one go pretty quickly.

Widdensushi

Is a level 3 with secondary schools closed a possibility?

spookwoman

I'll post the numbers here in case people miss em on the old thread if ok.

Stheno

Widdensushi wrote: »

Is a level 3 with secondary schools closed a possibility?

I suspect not

manniot2

How is it anyone at all who seems to have a gaa party or the like appears to end up with mass covid. It must be everywhere! That or else the test is a load of bollox

Inquitus

Stheno wrote: »

I suspect not

Aye, they seem hell bent on keeping the schools open, not sure why. Surely closing schools is better than shutting all retail etc. and the associated economic cost at level 4!

Queried

At the weekend I saw a friend of mine who was today told he was a close contact of a confirmed case. His last contact with the confirmed case was just before I saw him. He currently has no symptoms. Should he test positive, what are the chances of him having been contagious when I saw him later that day? Would anyone have any insight? Had a look myself online but couldn't find much information.

Stheno

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-811-more-cases-as-cavan-emerges-as-new-hotspot-1.4379802?mode=amp

Just under 1800 of 8000 cases in the past fortnight were community transmission

Of the almost 8,000 cases occurring in the past fortnight, half arose from close contact with a case but 1,763 were the result of community transmission,

Gods Gift

manniot2 wrote: »

How is it anyone at all who seems to have a gaa party or the like appears to end up with mass covid. It must be everywhere! That or else the test is a load of bollox

It is everywhere.like the doctor said. First case was in Feb I think. But 3 weeks previous someone died in cork hospital from covid.

AlphaDelta1

Just heard of 3 confirmed cases in a retail shop in Dundrum. All staff.

JP Liz V1

AlphaDelta1 wrote: »

Just heard of 3 confirmed cases in a retail shop in Dundrum. All staff.

Even with masks mandatory more cases now in retail shops

Stheno

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye, they seem hell bent on keeping the schools open, not sure why. Surely closing schools is better than shutting all retail etc. and the associated economic cost at level 4!

Goes against the narrative that schools are not a problem

You'd wonder why playmates are though

Poorside

manniot2 wrote: »

How is it anyone at all who seems to have a gaa party or the like appears to end up with mass covid. It must be everywhere! That or else the test is a load of bollox

Take a minute there and think what people are being asked to do, and then think about what goes on at a post match piss up.

pauldry

Now that 6 or 7 percent of us have had Covid shouldnt these people be allowed back in pubs and restaurants and football matches.

If some of ye out there could invent an on the spot antibody test at the doors of these establishments and we can get some people back to normal and save jobs of families.

I know people get reinforced but not too many (so far).

Poorside

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Even with masks mandatory more cases now in retail shops

People going into shops a lot more and a lot of people may as well be wearing their mask on their foreheads.

Messi19

Seeing that covid loves to party and loves a county final can you just imagine how much it would have loved to be at that Ballyragget party last year

hotmail.com

Poorside wrote: »

People going into shops a lot more and a lot of people may as well be wearing their mask on their foreheads.

I've seen the tiny visors among staff I shops too.

manniot2

manniot2 wrote: »

How is it anyone at all who seems to have a gaa party or the like appears to end up with mass covid. It must be everywhere! That or else the test is a load of bollox

When you think about it at the moment there has been about 10,000 cases confirmed in the last few weeks, those 10,000 cases have caused around 14,000 cases that have yet to be confirmed.

Add in all the case that never get confirmed and there could easily be 25,000 active infections at the moment.

So a 1 in 200 chance across the entire population. If 10 GAA clubs have celebrations with an average of only 50 people at each of them, it is likely there would be at least one actively infectious case amongst them. It's why large gatherings are unlikely for quite some time.

bb1234567

7 deaths up North today, bit of a jump. 150 in hospital and 23 in ICU there, I thought their hospital figures would be a lot worse than us considering their cases per capita are a lot higher but they're not doing roughly as well as us in terms of hospital numbers. What are we about 250 in hospital now?

odyssey06

Poorside wrote: »

People going into shops a lot more and a lot of people may as well be wearing their mask on their foreheads.

The visors do nothing.

Funsterdelux

odyssey06 wrote: »

The visors do nothing.

wadacrack

While In Ireland we have players playing GAA finals with Covid.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1316082940468756481

podgeandrodge

If we weren't all running around wearing masks, would it be much worse?

Poorside

odyssey06 wrote: »

The visors do nothing.

At the start people thought they were effective, the fact that's been proven wrong has yet to get into the general publics mindset.

Humberto Salazar

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Even with masks mandatory more cases now in retail shops

I see a lot of those visor things on staff rather than face masks, they are completely useless.

mcsean2163

Dr Li Meng fled to the US where she presumably had no money. Trump took her in so presumably that's why she's with Bannon.

If you expect a PhD virologist from Hong Kong to understand the difference between two politiical parties who are virtually the same but disagree over abortion.....

My point is it's awful that she ended up with Bannon, that no media of note would work with her. Her mother has been arrested and her work reads well to a non expert like me. Others like Dr Gupta have been similarly sidelined.

We're meant to be a democracy..... How is it democracy if Dr Li Meng is not given a voice?

odyssey06

podgeandrodge wrote: »

If we weren't all running around wearing masks, would it be much worse?

Its not when they are running around that worries me... but sat on a busy bus for 30 mins.

petes

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Dr Li Meng fled to the US where she presumably had no money. Trump took her in so presumably that's why she's with Bannon.

If you expect a PhD virologist from Hong Kong to understand the difference between two politiical parties who are virtually the same but disagree over abortion.....

My point is it's awful that she ended up with Bannon, that no media of note would work with her. Her mother has been arrested and her work reads well to a non expert like me. Others like Dr Gupta have been similarly sidelined.

We're meant to be a democracy..... How is it democracy if Dr Li Meng is not given a voice?

Seriously, what is it with you and Li Meng?

Inquitus

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Dr Li Meng fled to the US where she presumably had no money. Trump took her in so presumably that's why she's with Bannon.

If you expect a PhD virologist from Hong Kong to understand the difference between two politiical parties who are virtually the same but disagree over abortion.....

My point is it's awful that she ended up with Bannon, that no media of note would work with her. Her mother has been arrested and her work reads well to a non expert like me. Others like Dr Gupta have been similarly sidelined.

We're meant to be a democracy..... How is it democracy if Dr Li Meng is not given a voice?

We don't subscribe to the 5G causes Covid conspiracy theory either, this is on a par with that. Trump wants to blame China and Bannon finds a patsy to write the requisite paper, which is then torn to shreds by all reputable virologists.

podgeandrodge

odyssey06 wrote: »

Its not when they are running around that worries me... but sat on a busy bus for 30 mins.

Hah, yes, and I do agree with you in relation to public transport. Not so much about some other scenarios though.

normanoffside

wadacrack wrote: »

While In Ireland we have players playing GAA finals with Covid.

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1316082940468756481

Zero false positives out of 5 million while on our national football team there have been at least 3 false positives in a week.

Hard to believe the china numbers unless they have some kind of special test.

statesaver

Inquitus wrote: »

We don't subscribe to the 5G causes Covid conspiracy theory either, this is on a par with that. Trump wants to blame China and Bannon finds a patsy to write the requisite paper, which is then torn to shreds by all reputable virologists.

Well, it didn't come from Mexico.

odyssey06

mcsean2163 wrote: »

Dr Li Meng fled to the US where she presumably had no money. Trump took her in so presumably that's why she's with Bannon.
If you expect a PhD virologist from Hong Kong to understand the difference between two politiical parties who are virtually the same but disagree over abortion.....
My point is it's awful that she ended up with Bannon, that no media of note would work with her. Her mother has been arrested and her work reads well to a non expert like me. Others like Dr Gupta have been similarly sidelined.
We're meant to be a democracy..... How is it democracy if Dr Li Meng is not given a voice?

The right to speak does not come with the right to be given a voice... or listened to.
It does come with the right not to be imprisoned for speaking.

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Hah, yes, and I do agree with you in relation to public transport. Not so much about some other scenarios though.

Popping into a shop maskless for 5 minutes isn't a huge risk to you. But having to work there for 8 hours with hundreds of people popping in is a big risk to staff if people aren't wearing masks.

normanoffside

normanoffside wrote: »

Zero false positives out of 5 million while on our national football team there have been at least 3 false positives in a week.

Hard to believe the china numbers unless they have some kind of special test.

They use pool testing, so if a positive occurs individual testing will suss out fairly quickly if there has been a false positive.

podgeandrodge

Deleted User wrote: »

Popping into a shop maskless for 5 minutes isn't a huge risk to you. But having to work there for 8 hours with hundreds of people popping in is a big risk to staff if people aren't wearing masks.

Well there is the question I guess. Do we have figures for staff of shops getting it over other professions? I recall during the good months, that the supermarkets produced very low and insignificant figures for coronavirus, despite nobody wearing masks. And there were a decent amount of people still shopping in supermarkets back then. If as you say it's a "big" risk, it didn't seem to be then. Hence, perhaps the bigger risk is people in close contact for long periods (as they've said since day dot) - rather than perhaps working in an area of a shop without being on top of other staff.


I'd equally, for the same reason, like to know if there is a bigger proportion of pub/restaurant staff getting it when they were open, they being there all day too.

caveat emptor

normanoffside wrote: »

Zero false positives out of 5 million while on our national football team there have been at least 3 false positives in a week.

Hard to believe the china numbers unless they have some kind of special test.

That's a good point. Hard to believe China's numbers. Someone said that FAI uses a different kind of test which is must more inaccurate. I don't know enough about either tbh.

gipi

normanoffside wrote: »

Zero false positives out of 5 million while on our national football team there have been at least 3 false positives in a week.

Hard to believe the china numbers unless they have some kind of special test.

I read somewhere (Irish Times, I think) that China doesn't include asymptomatic cases in their CV positive totals....sure if we all did that, we'd be at level 1!

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Well there is the question I guess. Do we have figures for staff of shops getting it over other professions? I recall during the good months, that the supermarkets produced very low and insignificant figures for coronavirus, despite nobody wearing masks. And there were a decent amount of people still shopping in supermarkets back then. If as you say it's a "big" risk, it didn't seem to be then. Hence, perhaps the bigger risk is people in close contact for long periods (as they've said since day dot) - rather than perhaps working in an area of a shop without being on top of other staff.

That is true and supermarket staff weren't getting infected in big numbers. But supermarkets do tend to be airy and have high ceilings with decent ventilation from automatic doors. I'd be more concerned about smaller shops, particularly in shopping centres with limited airflow. Much more potential for particles to linger.

Not to mention people were being ridiculously careful in supermarkets in April and May as for many it was the only trip out of the house for them. Lots of places are more relaxed now, some people don't seem to using hand sanitizer even.

Arghus

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Well there is the question I guess. Do we have figures for staff of shops getting it over other professions? I recall during the good months, that the supermarkets produced very low and insignificant figures for coronavirus, despite nobody wearing masks. And there were a decent amount of people still shopping in supermarkets back then. If as you say it's a "big" risk, it didn't seem to be then. Hence, perhaps the bigger risk is people in close contact for long periods (as they've said since day dot) - rather than perhaps working in an area of a shop without being on top of other staff.


I'd equally, for the same reason, like to know if there is a bigger proportion of pub/restaurant staff getting it when they were open, they being there all day too.

The biggest risk for Supermarket workers and other retail workers currently is catching it off other members of staff in work.

mirrorwall14

Local garage here wore masks all the time from the beginning of lockdowns. They switched to visors recently. In there today and deli is closed due to a staff member testing positive. Visors are a waste of time if you ask me

Roger_007

Poorside wrote: »

At the start people thought they were effective, the fact that's been proven wrong has yet to get into the general publics mindset.

At the start the scientists and the medics told us that masks were pretty much useless unless they were medical grade masks with proper filters. They claimed that masks constantly being touched and being put on and taken off at regular intervals could actually increase the risk of infection. They also claimed that masks can induce a false sense of security.
If you watch people going in and out of shops, they pull a mask from a pocket or handbag, put in on and go the shop and then take it off as soon as they come out and stuff it back wherever they got it from. I presume they repeat the process when they go into another shop or get on a bus.
If masks are not virtually airtight around the edges they ‘leak’ a substantial proportion of exhaled air. I know this because I wear glasses and they fog up when I wear a mask.
I have come to the conclusion that the ‘experts’ were probably right about masks the first time.............virtually useless.

Russman

Deleted User wrote: »

Popping into a shop maskless for 5 minutes isn't a huge risk to you. But having to work there for 8 hours with hundreds of people popping in is a big risk to staff if people aren't wearing masks.

Just slightly related to that, and apologies if it’s been covered elsewhere (I’m sure it probably has), but what is the reality with the “15 minutes for a close contact” thing ? I know that’s the definition used to define a contact, I’m just curious as to what realistic level of contact becomes risky ? There’s probably no answer, I realise that, I’m just wondering where the line is between really low risk i.e. just walking past someone, and getting to the point where you really need to step back ?

froog

Roger_007 wrote: »

At the start the scientists and the medics told us that masks were pretty much useless unless they were medical grade masks with proper filters. They claimed that masks constantly being touched and being put on and taken off at regular intervals could actually increase the risk of infection. They also claimed that masks can induce a false sense of security.
If you watch people going in and out of shops, they pull a mask from a pocket or handbag, put in on and go the shop and then take it off as soon as they come out and stuff it back wherever they got it from. I presume they repeat the process when they go into another shop or get on a bus.
If masks are not virtually airtight around the edges they ‘leak’ a substantial proportion of exhaled air. I know this because I wear glasses and they fog up when I wear a mask.
I have come to the conclusion that the ‘experts’ were probably right about masks the first time.............virtually useless.

coronavirus is mainly spread through droplets. masks catch a good amount of those droplets.

it's not rocket science.

Gael23

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

I see a lot of those visor things on staff rather than face masks, they are completely useless.

Visors shield you from others surely?

Roger_007

froog wrote: »

coronavirus is mainly spread through droplets. masks catch a good amount of those droplets.

it's not rocket science.

How could you possibly know that it is mainly spread through droplets?

Stheno

Gael23 wrote: »

Visors shield you from others surely?

No. Its been said time and time again and studies have shown they are near to useless

froog

Roger_007 wrote: »

How could you possibly know that it is mainly spread through droplets?

i don't. scientists do.

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

Visors shield you from others surely?

Not really, droplets and aerosols tend to move around the great big gaps.