Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

Away With The Fairies · 11-10-2020 09:53PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

South Korea- A Covid-19 success story-
https://www.wsj.com/articles/lessons-from-south-korea-on-how-to-manage-covid-11601044329

Interesting article, worth a read. The community centres serving as Covid centres that SK set up makes a lot of sense and is something that should be looked at. Ask MNC's and irish companies with available facilities to help roll out similar here

Can't read it without signing up.

Jim_Hodge · 11-10-2020 09:53PM

Gods Gift wrote: »

I’m as regular as clockwork.

But clockwork modems are notoriously slow.

The HorsesMouth · 11-10-2020 10:00PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Cough, Cough..

Already I know that chart is BS because I'm looking at the county I'm in and I know of that many schoolkids and more with covid in my town..never mind the rest of the county.

Cluedo Monopoly · 11-10-2020 10:01PM

This time last week we were heading to Level 5 with more government kite flying.

drunkmonkey · 11-10-2020 10:03PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Nasty cough there drunk, should isolate and get a test.

Cases in school does not equal spread in school. People catch it everywhere in society, including schools, but the fact is the rate in schools ages is lower than society as a whole, and the rate of positive tests following contact tracing in schools is lower than the rate in the community

What is that rate of positives coming from the school contact tracing, is it showing that kids spread it less and there bringing it in from home rather than taking it home.

CruelSummer · 11-10-2020 10:05PM

Tredstone wrote: »

Is there any agreement between MM and Leo about public statements

I don't know if it's opportunism or what but they shouldn't be expressing such diverse views

What do they disagree on? I've just read Leo's article in the Independent and saw Míchael Martin's on the news. They both agree 'circuit breaker' lockdown is experimental. They both don't rule it out at some stage in the future should it be needed. They both agree we need to try and give level 3 a chance, while raising public awareness and compliance. They both agree if a lockdown is entered into again, we need an end point, a reopening plan and way out. That's what I got from it, but I may have missed other interviews/articles.

Kermit.de.frog · 11-10-2020 10:05PM

Decent enough odds on us qualifying for the Champions League of incompetence this week...

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8fa78a28-0bf0-11eb-b62e-f801b906c3ad_web_scale_0.3448276_0.3448276__.jpg?maxheight=600&maxwidth=900&scale=both

drunkmonkey · 11-10-2020 10:06PM

Cluedo Monopoly wrote: »

This time last week we were heading to Level 5 with more government kite flying.

I'm not seeing what major difference a level 5 makes for a lot of people. It'll close a lot more business but social life is dead as it is and being locked in your own country in winter with nothing happening is just depressing.

copeyhagen · 11-10-2020 10:07PM

Whelo79 wrote: »

I found this video hugely informative about the current situation we are. Apologies if it has already been posted but it contains some really relevant information backed up by really excellent research.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=gJq8MBgYJ4Q

jesus, some good data there

Whelo79 · 11-10-2020 10:09PM

copeyhagen wrote: »

jesus, some good data there

It's absolutely excellent, and eye opening. I planned on skipping through it catching snippets here and there but I ended up watching the full 30 minutes. By far the most thorough and best info I've seen to date.

WoollyRedHat · 11-10-2020 10:09PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Can't read it without signing up.

Sorry this is the relevant bit and relates to what South Korea faced during first wave and how they got on top of it, with use of nonmedical facilities:

"Even with the swift response, a lack of hospital beds became a major issue. In just 11 days, South Korea’s case count had gone from 31 to 3,150. Thousands were waiting to be hospitalized. A handful died while waiting.

South Korea’s infectious-disease experts had a proposal. Confirmed patients should be divided into four categories, based on the risk profile and severity of symptoms, with only the most serious cases hospitalized. Those with mild or no symptoms should be isolated at makeshift treatment facilities.

The recommendation contradicted the country’s treatment guidelines to hospitalize all confirmed cases in medical facilities. There was another problem. No one had secured any nonmedical facilities yet.

Connections
This was the challenge facing Peck Kyong-ran, chairwoman of the Korean Society of Infectious Diseases, who advises the government. Like a lot of South Korean government advisers, Dr. Peck is also a practicing physician, employed by Samsung Medical Center.

With that tie to the country’s largest business conglomerate, Dr. Peck set up a meeting with senior officials from the Samsung conglomerate, asking that an empty facility near Daegu be lent to the South Korean government. By first having a company volunteer a venue, Dr. Peck recalled thinking, it would pressure South Korea’s health ministry to act.

Her message to the Samsung officials was direct. “ LG will come forward eventually,” Dr. Peck said. “Don’t you want to be the first?”

Samsung eventually agreed, as did the South Korean government, which the next day approved the “community treatment center” plan and amended the guidelines. Eventually, LG, Hyundai and other South Korean firms volunteered corporate dormitories for the Covid-19 response.

About 80% of South Korea’s coronavirus patients have been hospitalized in the community treatment centers. Those who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms are still sent there."-WSJ

drunkmonkey · 11-10-2020 10:10PM

The HorsesMouth wrote: »

Already I know that chart is BS because I'm looking at the county I'm in and I know of that many schoolkids and more with covid in my town..never mind the rest of the county.

It came from here
Seemingly there's a facebook page another poster mentioned with 88k members reporting on it, haven't seen it.

Widdensushi · 11-10-2020 10:11PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Decent enough odds on us qualifying for the Champions League of incompetence this week...

The sunny South East

Zebra3 · 11-10-2020 10:11PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Decent enough odds on us qualifying for the Champions League of incompetence this week...

Wrists will be falling off some posters on here when they see that....

Derek Zoolander · 11-10-2020 10:16PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Decent enough odds on us qualifying for the Champions League of incompetence this week...

So pretty much the same as most of Europe with Germany being the major exception....

Denmark. Czech rep and other countries that had a very good first wave struggling a little too now...

Maybe we’re in the middle of a pandemic and that’s the reason for the spread rather than total incompetence....

WHO and disease experts now stating lockdown not the best solution... not easy solutions and even German rates increasing significantly

copeyhagen · 11-10-2020 10:20PM

Whelo79 wrote: »

It's a
bsolutely excellent, and eye opening. I planned on skipping through it catching snippets here and there but I ended up watching the full 30 minutes. By far the most thorough and best info I've seen to date.

same, gonna watch the whole thing now.

i wish the pro lockdown brigade would watch it, its just another view, from someone that knows a lot and has done the research.

sadly, they wont bother, as everyone knows best now.

WoollyRedHat · 11-10-2020 10:24PM

Excellent thread by SAGE member Anthony Costello here about what are UK options as they face significant second wave . https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1315336234382827522?s=20

It equally applies to us, albeit at a lower point in curve for hospitalizations and deaths (but rising nonetheless): these are also our options. There is no point in even contemplating a "circuit breaker" until we reform our Test, Trace and Isolation system. Recruiting additional contact tracers won't be enough, the system is not fit for purpose, fix it.

Funsterdelux · 11-10-2020 10:28PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Wrists will be falling off some posters on here when they see that....

A bit like last monday night with claire byrne.

Leo's interview, not Claire Byrne herself but that would be understandable too

11-10-2020 10:29PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Most people dont get enough fibre

Some get to much :-)

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 10:30PM

Whelo79 wrote: »

I found this video hugely informative about the current situation we are. Apologies if it has already been posted but it contains some really relevant information backed up by really excellent research.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=gJq8MBgYJ4Q

Some quite interesting points he makes, however at 13:00 into it, he mentions as an example of 100 positive cases, 50-90 are false positives

We've all been on here long enough to know that just isn't the case.

Goldengirl · 11-10-2020 10:33PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I often wonder what the so called "planners" are doing, or have done so far.

I swear to God I will lose the plot if the INMO give out about trolleys and lack of beds and lack of staff AGAIN.

Those who shout the loudest are embedded into their Unions. Therein lie many problems over the years.

TYFYS is turning into work 24/7 FGS and get us out of this mess. But hey, it's the HSE and all those things only apply to the Private Health Sector.

Are you seriously blaming nursing unions for this ?
They have been highlighting the patients waiting in chairs and trolleys for years looking for better staffing and more beds .
HSE managers don't count beds behind doors or patients in extra trolleys / chairs with drips hanging out of them waiting for admission .
Do you really think staff in public hospitals don't care about how their patients are treated ?
We are and have been advocates all our working lives

By the way what did that last line mean ?

Thierry12 · 11-10-2020 10:35PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It came from here
Seemingly there's a facebook page another poster mentioned with 88k members reporting on it, haven't seen it.

Join it

Compelling stuff, a new school is going up by the hour

Honestly its hard to keep up with all the schools and cases

Absolute crazy its not on the news

Cluedo Monopoly · 11-10-2020 10:36PM

I have only left my county twice since March.

Now that they wont let me leave my county, I want to do an intercounty roadtrip!

drunkmonkey · 11-10-2020 10:38PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Excellent thread by SAGE member Anthony Costello here about what are UK options as they face significant second wave . Also a good graph on hospitalizations comparisons between them , France, Spain, Germany and us (green)-https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1315336234382827522?s=20

It equally applies to us, albeit at a lower point in curve for hospitalizations and deaths (but rising nonetheless): these are also our options. There is no point in even contemplating a "circuit breaker" until we reform our Test, Trace and Isolation system. Recruiting additional contact tracers won't be enough, the system is not fit for purpose, fix it.

I haven't much faith we can fix our contact tracing unless we take it out of the public service, a proper call center could fly through those daily cases. Even then though we're still playing whack a mole. All roads lead back to option 1, isn't that the Swedish approach with hindsight?

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 10:39PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Excellent thread by SAGE member Anthony Costello here about what are UK options as they face significant second wave . Also a good graph on hospitalizations comparisons between them , France, Spain, Germany and us (green)-https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1315336234382827522?s=20

It equally applies to us, albeit at a lower point in curve for hospitalizations and deaths (but rising nonetheless): these are also our options. There is no point in even contemplating a "circuit breaker" until we reform our Test, Trace and Isolation system. Recruiting additional contact tracers won't be enough, the system is not fit for purpose, fix it.

Interesting chart.
Even more interesting when France has 5.98 beds per 1k population and Ireland has 3.43 per 1k.
France averages 76% occupancy rate and Ireland 95% occupancy rate.
So a chart showing admissions with Covid per available beds would have Ireland ~9 times higher than we are when compared to France, based on a very rough calculation.

If they want to compare, compare apples to apples!

Thierry12 · 11-10-2020 10:41PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Some quite interesting points he makes, however at 13:00 into it, he mentions as an example of 100 positive cases, 50-90 are false positives
We've all been on here long enough to know that just isn't the case.

Infection vs disease he should have called that

Out of the 1000 cases yesterday

500-900 will have the infection, not sick, no symptoms, non sterilising vaccine we are getting soon will be like this.

500-100 will have the disease, very sick people

Bit like HIV/AIDS

Hiv is the infection

Aids is the disease

WoollyRedHat · 11-10-2020 10:45PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Interesting chart.
Even more interesting when France has 5.98 beds per 1k population and Ireland has 3.43 per 1k.
France averages 76% occupancy rate and Ireland 95% occupancy rate.
So a chart showing admissions with Covid per available beds would have Ireland ~9 times higher than we are when compared to France, based on a very rough calculation.

If they want to compare, compare apples to apples!

That's a fair point, I have removed my comment about it being a good graph, with consideration to the fact it doesn't consider the nuances of situation in Ireland. Interesting nonetheless, if we do follow in same trajectory we're in trouble.

Miike · 11-10-2020 10:46PM

Whelo79 wrote: »

I found this video hugely informative about the current situation we are. Apologies if it has already been posted but it contains some really relevant information backed up by really excellent research.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=gJq8MBgYJ4Q

The same Ivor Cummins who argued the pandemic was over a few months ago and that positive tests were the result of testing people who had infections in the past finding "dead virus". I haven't watched the video but he is very crafty in what he does, making things seems quite legit.

Google his name

WoollyRedHat · 11-10-2020 10:51PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I haven't much faith we can fix our contact tracing unless we take it out of the public service, a proper call center could fly through those daily cases. Even then though we're still playing whack a mole. All roads lead back to option 1, isn't that the Swedish approach with hindsight?

It needs to be led by a public body, outsourcing such an important responsibility would be inherently risky. In terms of Option 1, on its own no, it is not preferable as it risks overloading the HSE, wecannot afford to risk this as it will translate into unnecessary deaths.

Reform of our TTI system, as well as ensuring it is adequately resourced, with nonmedical facilities for treatment of Covid utilised and army enlisted for logistical support, is what we need to be looking at. That's a blended South Korea approach you're looking at.

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 10:55PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Infection vs disease he should have called that

Out of the 1000 cases yesterday

500-900 will have the infection, not sick, no symptoms, non sterilising vaccine we are getting soon will be like this.

500-100 will have the disease, very sick people

Bit like HIV/AIDS

Hiv is the infection

Aids is the disease

He really should not have said false positive though.
But yeah if you mean asymptomatic etc... I see what you mean.
I would question the 50-90 though, seems a little on the high side.

But going back to March/April, those hospitalized would have been symptomatic (obviously) as would be the case these days. Back then we really were not testing as much, not picking up the mild/asymptomatic cases, which we are now. We could therefore be able to calculate a more accurate hospitalization % and apply it back to March/April to get a better idea of how many cases we actually had.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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