Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

I Am The Law · 11-10-2020 10:55PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

A bit like last monday night with claire byrne.

Leo's interview, not Claire Byrne herself but that would be understandable too

Mmm.. Claire and her wrists..

Whelo79 · 11-10-2020 10:57PM

Miike wrote: »

The same Ivor Cummins who argued the pandemic was over a few months ago and that positive tests were the result of testing people who had infections in the past finding "dead virus". I haven't watched the video but he is very crafty in what he does, making things seems quite legit.

Google his name

The pandemic is over, we have a casedemic. Deaths are so miniscule in relation to positive tests it can no longer be classed as a pandemic.

Edit: Oh, and watch the video.

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 10:58PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

That's a fair point, I have removed my comment about it being a good graph, with consideration to the fact it doesn't consider the nuances of situation in Ireland. Interesting nonetheless, if we do follow in same trajectory we're in trouble.

Yeah it's easy to use stats to paint a better or a worse image of the situation.
Guess it's all down to being optimistic or pessimistic. Or in the case of RTE, find the worst stat possible and run with that!

Whelo79 · 11-10-2020 10:59PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

He really should not have said false positive though.
But yeah if you mean asymptomatic etc... I see what you mean.
I would question the 50-90 though, seems a little on the high side.

But going back to March/April, those hospitalized would have been symptomatic (obviously) as would be the case these days. Back then we really were not testing as much, not picking up the mild/asymptomatic cases, which we are now. We could therefore be able to calculate a more accurate hospitalization % and apply it back to March/April to get a better idea of how many cases we actually had.

Agree with the correction there from you both. His point was many of those testing positive now have traces from infection months ago or are displaying no symptoms/asymptomatic, so not real current positive cases.

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 11:02PM

Whelo79 wrote: »

The pandemic is over, we have a casedemic. Deaths are so miniscule in relation to positive tests it can no longer be classed as a pandemic.

Edit: Oh, and watch the video.

I think the term is endemic not a casedemic.
Casedemic belongs to the other terms like herd immunity, let it rip, seasonal etc...

drunkmonkey · 11-10-2020 11:04PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Join it

Compelling stuff, a new school is going up by the hour

Honestly its hard to keep up with all the schools and cases

Absolute crazy its not on the news

What's it called, kids were at a 79th birthday today with their cousins grandparents happy no school cases in the county. Grandad is fine, Grandma is utterly depressed having her social life ended.

Goldengirl · 11-10-2020 11:07PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

That's a fair point, I have removed my comment about it being a good graph, with consideration to the fact it doesn't consider the nuances of situation in Ireland. Interesting nonetheless, if we do follow in same trajectory we're in trouble.

Taiwan has controlled its outbreaks by restricting areas where they occur , testing everybody inthe area and contact tracing and testing those contacts again .
Mandatory funded isolation for 2 weeks and enforcement until all cases are gone .
And gen tithe next cluster...
This is needed if we don't want to continue with rising numbers and national restrictions ,but do we in Ireland , or our government have the stomach for it ?

Thierry12 · 11-10-2020 11:07PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

He really should not have said false positive though.
But yeah if you mean asymptomatic etc... I see what you mean.
I would question the 50-90 though, seems a little on the high side.

But going back to March/April, those hospitalized would have been symptomatic (obviously) as would be the case these days. Back then we really were not testing as much, not picking up the mild/asymptomatic cases, which we are now. We could therefore be able to calculate a more accurate hospitalization % and apply it back to March/April to get a better idea of how many cases we actually had.

Yeah didn't like it either

He could have been talking about the pcr cycle threshold too

We use 37 I believe which catches everything, dead virus, fragments everything

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

Someone linked a twitter post from a statistician, best guess was 6,000-15,000 cases a day in March/April from what we know now

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 11:07PM

Whelo79 wrote: »

Agree with the correction there from you both. His point was many of those testing positive now have traces from infection months ago or are displaying no symptoms/asymptomatic, so not real current positive cases.

That maybe true, but deaths, hospitalization and ICU figures are growing.
With hospitalization figures growing exponentially.
If we were testing more and more and picking up old viruses/asymptomatic, the % of hospitalizations of new cases would be decreasing in relation to new cases (based on the second wave, where we have been on top of testing)

11-10-2020 11:08PM

copeyhagen wrote: »

same, gonna watch the whole thing now.

i wish the pro lockdown brigade would watch it, its just another view, from someone that knows a lot and has done the research.

sadly, they wont bother, as everyone knows best now.

I'd have been pro-lockdown, but after watching this I question the validity of it. Quite frankly I'm probably more puzzled than ever on what should it shouldn't be done, but for meantime I take due precautions etc not to be part of its spread as far as I can help it.

Martina1991 · 11-10-2020 11:12PM

Whelo79 wrote: »

Agree with the correction there from you both. His point was many of those testing positive now have traces from infection months ago or are displaying no symptoms/asymptomatic, so not real current positive cases.

How come there was no talk of these "false" positives until September, 7 months into the testing process.

Cases began rising again in late August, into September. Yet hospitalizations and deaths weren't rising at the same rate. Well restrictions eased and a younger cohort of people were becoming infected. It wasn't surprising.

But yet there was all this talk about CT values and false positives as a means of explaining away the number of cases and downplaying the beginning of a second wave.

People think these cases could be due to "dead" viral particles from 60-70 days previously. But in June and July we had very little cases.

So why would a large proportion of our cases suddenly be detected in September and weren't detected in June or July when they were actively infected and infectious.

Kh1993 · 11-10-2020 11:13PM

Lots of confirmation bias out there about schools as spreaders.

One thing I’d add as a teacher is that the chances of finding a Covid case in schools are higher than say during the summer at home. Lots of schools are checking temperatures (whether we should or not), minor rise, you’re sent home. Any coughs, sent home.

The Facebook and twitter groups don’t help. Hysterical parents, teachers too all waiting for a school to be named. Some of our teacher pages have turned vigilante like. (The same FB pages where people have legitimately asked should I go school in scrubs). So a child who could have caught it anywhere, goes to school sick, gets sent home in line with protocol, yet The school gets shamed on these groups despite them following the rules. It’s crazy stuff that helps no one.

Now maybe the information vacuum helps this confirmation bias that schools are major spreaders. Some of the HSEs advice on contacts in schools has been odd. Some of NPHET/HSPC data on schools has been lacking. But neither of these confirm that schools are major players. Lots want to think this, I really don’t know why. No one wins with school closures, not least the children.

As the poster a few pages back said, all that cases in children in schools means is that there is spread in the community. Nothing else until the data actually backs it up.

drunkmonkey · 11-10-2020 11:17PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

It needs to be led by a public body, outsourcing such an important responsibility would be inherently risky. In terms of Option 1, on its own no, it is not preferable as it risks overloading the HSE, wecannot afford to risk this as it will translate into unnecessary deaths.

Reform of our TTI system, as well as ensuring it is adequately resourced, with nonmedical facilities for treatment of Covid utilised and army enlisted for logistical support, is what we need to be looking at. That's a blended South Korea approach you're looking at.

I'm not convinced it should be led by a public body, private sector would be a lot more efficient and target driven. We've plenty of people with little to do, even a remote system where volunteers could log in and work on a case, I'd gladly give a few hours in the evening, probably plenty more like me who would be more than capable. It's all fed into a central system from multiple locations as it is, wouldn't be hard to implement, maybe with sign off as a good citizen from the local Sargent before you begin.
My experience with the public service is they don't really understand that speed is crucial in anything.

Thierry12 · 11-10-2020 11:18PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

What's it called, kids were at a 79th birthday today with their cousins grandparents happy no school cases in the county. Grandad is fine, Grandma is utterly depressed having her social life ended.

Alerting parents of outbreaks in schools in ireland

Definitely tougher on the grandmothers alright

Mines the same, sick of it

plodder · 11-10-2020 11:20PM

Dublin (cases) vs the rest. While there was a nasty spike in Dublin Friday, it's hard to see a clear trend and Dublin is back down to 226 today.

Not so much for rest of the country where the curve is quite smooth and a clear concern.

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 11:23PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

How come there was no talk of these "false" positives until September, 7 months into the testing process.

Cases began rising again in late August, into September. Yet hospitalizations and deaths weren't rising at the same rate. Well restrictions eased and a younger cohort of people were becoming infected. It wasn't surprising.

But yet there was all this talk about CT values and false positives as a means of explaining away the number of cases and downplaying the beginning of a second wave.

People think these cases could be due to "dead" viral particles from 60-70 days previously. But in June and July we had very little cases.

So why would a large proportion of our cases suddenly be detected in September and weren't detected in June or July when they were actively infected and infectious.

As I said before, Australia tested 8,000,000 people and only found 27,000 positive cases.
If even only 1% were 'false positives/old virus etc...) that would be 80,000 cases.....
They have a grand total of 27,000 cases.
Somehow PCR testing in Ireland is unique to the rest of the world

I Am The Law · 11-10-2020 11:24PM

plodder wrote: »

Dublin (cases) vs the rest. While there was a nasty spike in Dublin Friday, it's hard to see a clear trend and Dublin is back down to 226 today.

Not so much for rest of the country where the curve is quite smooth and a clear concern.

Oh no.. not another excel erection, down boy!

hmmm · 11-10-2020 11:24PM

plodder wrote: »

Dublin (cases) vs the rest. While there was a nasty spike in Dublin Friday, it's hard to see a clear trend and Dublin is back down to 226 today.

Are you sure that Dublin spike figure is correct?

Miike · 11-10-2020 11:28PM

Whelo79 wrote: »

The pandemic is over, we have a casedemic. Deaths are so miniscule in relation to positive tests it can no longer be classed as a pandemic.

Edit: Oh, and watch the video.

Sorry Whelo - I've no interest in hearing from him. I watched one his videos a few months ago and as I said he is very clever in how he presents "facts".

Also, a pandemic is not qualified or measured based on fatalities. COVID19 has people OBSESSED with death and counting deaths. There are other measures of outcomes related to disease, which largely get ignored on this forum.

Edit: Okay I tried and he did what people on this forum tried also regarding the statement from the WHO envoy on "lockdowns" during a pandemic. He lost me in the first 120 seconds. The statement from that doctor in the WHO was related to not using lockdowns as a primary measure of controlling the virus. We haven't done that. Look at Melbourne - Longest lockdown in the world. China - Police welded doors of place shut to prevent and discourage people from leaving their dwellings. Some medi counties - total lockdown of all citizens. Spain - Similar strategy of total lockdown. This is what they're talking about, not short (relatively) periods of heightened restrictions to buy a little buffer room for health services and preventing uncontrolled spread of the pathogen in the population.

Smegging hell · 11-10-2020 11:28PM

https://twitter.com/etienneshrdlu/status/1315392661621215240

Miike · 11-10-2020 11:29PM

Whelo79 wrote: »

Agree with the correction there from you both. His point was many of those testing positive now have traces from infection months ago or are displaying no symptoms/asymptomatic, so not real current positive cases.

Ct values don't lie.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 11-10-2020 11:31PM

hmmm wrote: »

Are you sure that Dublin spike figure is correct?

Friday was 123 in Dublin. Am not sure what the spike he is talking about is.

We've had 5 of the last 9 days under 150 and 4 of the last 9 days over 200.

Its very variable day to day atm.

plodder · 11-10-2020 11:33PM

hmmm wrote: »

Are you sure that Dublin spike figure is correct?

took figure from wikipedia. Maybe 331 is from today.

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/18291-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-sunday-11-october/#cases-by-county

hmmm · 11-10-2020 11:36PM

plodder wrote: »

331 reported on Friday here

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/18291-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-sunday-11-october/#cases-by-county

How does that square with the 226 new cases in Dublin quoted at the beginning of the press release?

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 11:40PM

hmmm wrote: »

Are you sure that Dublin spike figure is correct?

The press announcement on Friday said there was 123 cases in Dublin.
The detailed breakdown that's provided 2 days later (released Sunday), lists Dublin as +331 cases. We announced 617 cases Friday but 2 days later when you look at the county figures, 1102 were added between all counties.

Non solum non ambulabit · 11-10-2020 11:40PM

hmmm wrote: »

How does that square with the 226 new cases in Dublin quoted at the beginning of the press release?

None of county data matches. Must be a mistake.

plodder · 11-10-2020 11:41PM

hmmm wrote: »

How does that square with the 226 new cases in Dublin quoted at the beginning of the press release?

Well there's a clear contradiction there. What are we supposed to do if the statistics aren't reliable?

Non solum non ambulabit · 11-10-2020 11:41PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

The press announcement on Friday said there was 123 cases in Dublin.
The detailed breakdown that's provided 2 days later (released Sunday), lists Dublin as +331 cases. We announced 617 cases Friday but 2 days later when you look at the county figures, 1102 were added between all counties.

Almost matches 500 backlog figures

Wolf359f · 11-10-2020 11:42PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

None of county data matches. Must be a mistake.

It's almost like they just add them each day as they eventually process them to confirm the county and not on the date the test result was announced?
This makes the swab backlog easy to understand lol!

s1ippy · 11-10-2020 11:46PM

They're not even doing a breakdown of cases any more. We've no idea where it's spreading because tracing are swamped. This is still only the first third of winter. Sorry, time is incredibly blurred this year. Winter isn't even started yet.

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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