Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - Read OP for Mod Warnings

CruelSummer · 29-09-2020 06:25PM

Grant Billions Bifocals wrote: »

As I have been pointing out on the thread the economy is not being hit near as hard as some would claim, this is not a normal recession (if you could even call it a recession).

Are you trying to claim the gov are lying?

No Nox, I’m talking about the disparity between multinationals, our GDP figures and the more accurate GNP figures which affect citizens of the country.
It was used previously by commentators in the US when Ireland recorded a ridiculously big GDP, none of which made it through to the Irish public. It’s just more spin from the government trying to limit the economic carnage talk.
“United States’ economist Paul Krugman used the term ‘leprechaun economics’ to explain the disparity between Ireland’s national accounts and the less glorious reality on the ground. “Ireland, famously, is a country where GDP vastly exceeds national income, by a growing margin,” he explained..”

3xh · 29-09-2020 06:27PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

All sprained ankles?

I don’t know. But neither do you, MadYaker nor anyone else in the public. Why is that? I’m ready to listen to those figures.

I just know ‘100 hospitalisations’ doesn’t necessarily mean 100 people beginning to deteriorate but Glynn wants me to think that.

He’s trying to disarm any arguments that could potentially be used against NPHET et al.

They use those case/hospital/icu/death figures to justify their phases/restrictions.

I’m beginning to think MadYaker just didn’t see the significance.

MadYaker · 29-09-2020 06:35PM

3xh wrote: »

I don’t know. But neither do you, MadYaker nor anyone else in the public. Why is that? I’m ready to listen to those figures.

I just know ‘100 hospitalisations’ doesn’t necessarily mean 100 people beginning to deteriorate but Glynn wants me to think that.

He’s trying to disarm any arguments that could potentially be used against NPHET et al.

They use those case/hospital/icu/death figures to justify their phases/restrictions.

I’m beginning to think MadYaker just didn’t see the significance.

I'm finding very hard to see what point you are trying to make here.

Is it your opinion that NPHET are inflating the figures and somehow getting hospitals to admit people that aren't really sick or what?

Do you think people who test positive for covid shouldn't be included in the figures if they were already in hospital for something else?

My opinion is that we have a very small hospital capacity in general which barely copes in an average winter, and this year we have a new virus which has clearly demonstrated it's potential to overwhelm health systems far more advanced and better resourced than ours, so we need to take some preventative action.

3xh · 29-09-2020 06:43PM

MadYaker wrote: »

It's difficult to respond when you are putting words in my mouth like this. I don't really listen to glynn or RTE. I read these most days and I form my opinions on the figures within and the trend that you can see when you look at the figures for the previous two weeks. https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/coronavirus-daily-operations-updates.html

I don't know why you are so hung up on the intricate details of these patients. We have a certain amount of healthcare capacity. A bed taken is a bed taken. Covid patients are filling up the beds. This is a problem that we need to solve. Did you notice this happening last year or the year before?

I don’t listen to Glynn or RTE either, tbh. But I let them speak so as to simply get the other side of the story.

Don’t misquote me about wanting to know the intricate details of the patients. I just want to know, of the X in hospital today, how many are there primarily owing to Covid. Not because of a broken leg or ankle. That’s a fair differentiation.

I agree. A bed taken is a bed taken. So why doesn’t Glynn say we have 1000 beds in operation today. 80 are being used by patients primarily with a non-Covid ailment. We have 20 admitted due primarily to Covid.

I notice this happening every year. It’s the same old news every single year. Hospital overcrowding, winter vomiting bug outbreaks, trolleys in A&E areas, OAPs left sitting on a square chair for the night, alone, no privacy. It goes on and on. You could almost use copy and paste on these stories each year. Just change the patient’s name.

But what‘s your point? Fully embrace this policy of increasing county lockdowns this side of Christmas to prevent yet another overcrowding scenario?
That was going to happen anyway?

funnydoggy · 29-09-2020 06:43PM

State of this comment from someone on reddit.

Our economy has to open sooner rather than later. Despite most places being open now, we're not in the thousands of cases and hundreds of deaths a day that some people would have predicted. We're bloody fortunate to not have that statistic.

MadYaker · 29-09-2020 06:49PM

3xh wrote: »

I don’t listen to Glynn or RTE either, tbh. But I let them speak so as to simply get the other side of the story.

Don’t misquote me about wanting to know the intricate details of the patients. I just want to know, of the X in hospital today, how many are there primarily owing to Covid. Not because of a broken leg or ankle. That’s a fair differentiation.

I agree. A bed taken is a bed taken. So why doesn’t Glynn say we have 1000 beds in operation today. 80 are being used by patients primarily with a non-Covid ailment. We have 20 admitted due primarily to Covid.

I notice this happening every year. It’s the same old news every single year. Hospital overcrowding, winter vomiting bug outbreaks, trolleys in A&E areas, OAPs left sitting on a square chair for the night, alone, no privacy. It goes on and on. You could almost use copy and paste on these stories each year. Just change the patient’s name.

But what‘s your point? Fully embrace this policy of increasing county lockdowns this side of Christmas to prevent yet another overcrowding scenario?
That was going to happen anyway?

So you think this happens every year? Honestly? It's not an overcrowding scenario the HSE are worried about. A&Es are already overcrowded. It's patients dying (any patients not just covid patients) because ICUs and critical care beds are full. That wasn't something that was a possibility last year or the year before or the year before that.

CalamariFritti · 29-09-2020 06:51PM

MadYaker wrote: »

That's a conspiracy with zero evidence supporting it. I base my opinions on facts and evidence. You may think that this is all being invented by gov and NPHET for some reason but you must surely wonder how, if that is the case, the same situation is playing out in many countries all over the world?

I would agree with you that it doesnt make any sense and I dont have a rational explanation but yet here we are.

Best I can come up with is that we kind of 'pot committed' ourselves in March/April by going in so heavy handed with unprecedented and damaging measures. No issues there, we didnt know much and we played it safe. Fine.
But a precedent was set. Biggest challenge of our lives and money no object. Life as we know it is over (for now).

And since then we've drifted into a spiral of media frenzy and politicians and health officials fearing for their careers if they suggest anything 'risky'. So we keep playing it as safe as we can without actually committing outright economical suicide. And in order to keep the public on board we have to keep the ultra scary story going.

And yes the same thing happens almost everywhere else.

Just a theory of course but sounds plausible enough?

3xh · 29-09-2020 06:54PM

MadYaker wrote: »

Do you think people who test positive for covid shouldn't be included in the figures if they were already in hospital for something else?.

To be clear, if John is admitted with a broken leg and tests positive, I think he should be included in the hospitalisation figure. As should Mary who only has deteriorating Covid symptoms and a positive Covid test.

My problem is, NPHET then announces to the media that we have 2 hospitalisations and allows it to be thought of by the public that these two people contracted it, deteriorated and are now in hospital solely because of Covid and their worsening condition. That is false.

The media know this but don’t demand the breakdown nor explain it regularly for those unsure/forgetting the significance etc.

It’s classic statistics.

MadYaker · 29-09-2020 07:05PM

3xh wrote: »

To be clear, if John is admitted with a broken leg and tests positive, I think he should be included in the hospitalisation figure. As should Mary who only has deteriorating Covid symptoms and a positive Covid test.

My problem is, NPHET then announces to the media that we have 2 hospitalisations and allows it to be thought of by the public that these two people contracted it, deteriorated and are now in hospital solely because of Covid and their worsening condition. That is false.

The media know this but don’t demand the breakdown nor explain it regularly for those unsure/forgetting the significance etc.

It’s classic statistics.

First of all, you are assuming what everyone else thinks, that isn't wise. Second of all who the fcuk cares about what the public thinks? Have you ever worked a job where you deal with the public? Most of them are idiots.

I don't see what any of that has to do with the fact that this virus can overwhelm our health system if we let it.

MadYaker · 29-09-2020 07:09PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I would agree with you that it doesnt make any sense and I dont have a rational explanation but yet here we are.

Best I can come up with is that we kind of 'pot committed' ourselves in March/April by going in so heavy handed with unprecedented and damaging measures. No issues there, we didnt know much and we played it safe. Fine.
But a precedent was set. Biggest challenge of our lives and money no object. Life as we know it is over (for now).

And since then we've drifted into a spiral of media frenzy and politicians and health officials fearing for their careers if they suggest anything 'risky'. So we keep playing it as safe as we can without actually committing outright economical suicide. And in order to keep the public on board we have to keep the ultra scary story going.

And yes the same thing happens almost everywhere else.

Just a theory of course but sounds plausible enough?

Doesn't sound plausible at all to be honest and requires many logical leaps of faith. The truth is actually much simpler.

The plan as outlined in March was suppression until a vaccine arrives. I'm not sure why you thought this would all end sometime in the summer?

Penfailed · 29-09-2020 07:14PM

MadYaker wrote: »

The plan as outlined in March was suppression until a vaccine arrives. I'm not sure why you thought this would all end sometime in the summer?

Was that the plan outlined in March? I thought that the plan in March was to flatten the curve...and that was it. I don't recall hearing anything about waiting on a vaccine.

3xh · 29-09-2020 07:15PM

MadYaker wrote: »

First of all, you are assuming what everyone else thinks, that isn't wise. Second of all who the fcuk cares about what the public thinks? Have you ever worked a job where you deal with the public? Most of them are idiots.

I don't see what any of that has to do with the fact that this virus can overwhelm our health system if we let it.

I’m sorry. I’m just wary of state bodies and the state media organisation deliberately highlighting figures (or not, as the case may be) that benefit them and their clear objective to further close down Ireland before reopening in the run up to Christmas. Rather than the other way around.

I don’t necessarily care what Joe Soap thinks. But if feedback by Joe Soap aids the government in implementing particular policies, I’ll take note then.

You’ll remember Micháel Martin saying it was being stopped by some randomer in Dublin City where they urged him to implement greater restrictions that convinced him he was doing the right thing! I don’t believe it for a second. But he obviously believes some of us will!

MadYaker · 29-09-2020 07:20PM

Penfailed wrote: »

Was that the plan outlined in March? I thought that the plan in March was to flatten the curve...and that was it. I don't recall hearing anything about waiting on a vaccine.

Id have to go back and watch Varadkers speech if I can find it but that was my understanding at the time. It seemed to me at that time that we (and almost everyone else) were basing our approach on the WHO guidelines on containing a pandemic, as implemented with pretty good success by the chinese.

3xh · 29-09-2020 07:21PM

MadYaker wrote: »

The plan as outlined in March was suppression until a vaccine arrives. I'm not sure why you thought this would all end sometime in the summer?

It was absolutely about suppressing the curve! So that as anyone who was destined to get it got it, the trickle effect would allow full medical care to be given to anyone who needed it and not be like Italy.

29-09-2020 08:20PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

The curve has been flattened since May (ie deaths and hospitalisations hitting the floor). Data then indicated many cases ended up in hospital. However, solid data is emerging that actually it isn't a given that spikes in covid cases results in spikes in hospital admissions. Therefore, your flatten the curve GIF is not applicable anymore, it is now defunct and not worth considering in the current stage of the covid fight.

Focusing on cases is losing sight of the problem which is hospitals being overrun. The accepted approach is slow but steady herd immunity (with a vaccine combined with natural herd immunity) but making sure the health service can manage those that need treatment. For the last 4 months, post-strictest lockdown, nothing in the numbers suggests anything other than the crisis is over. The health service has been protected and has (or should have) significantly enhanced its resources for treating patients that need it.

Therefore, to go with the lack of a health justification to continue with restrictions, there is no economic cost justification for continued destruction to livelihoods in certain sectors and no moral justification for imposing severe State restrictions on every day life for people.

Show me the data that doesn't correlate rise in cases with rise in hospitalisations

walus · 29-09-2020 08:21PM

Grant Billions Bifocals wrote: »

As I have been pointing out on the thread the economy is not being hit near as hard as some would claim, this is not a normal recession (if you could even call it a recession).

Are you trying to claim the gov are lying?

In 1929 the GDP in US dropped by 8.5% and those couple of years that followed were called The Great Depression. How much did the GDP of Ireland drop thus far? I’ll give you a clue - “only” by 6.1% - the greatest drop ever recorded. If you think this will bring no major consequences, good luck to you.

topper75 · 29-09-2020 08:32PM

Next time you hear a person on an Irish radio station like Kenny talk up the NPHET/restrictions position on things, it might be no harm to remember which side their bread is buttered on. They certainly do.
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Would all be very funny if it wasn't taxpayers money they were using.

hynesie08 · 29-09-2020 08:32PM

walus wrote: »

In 1929 the GDP in US dropped by 8.5% and those couple of years that followed were called The Great Depression. How much did the GDP of Ireland drop thus far? I’ll give you a clue - “only” by 6.1% - the greatest drop ever recorded. If you think this will bring no major consequences, good luck to you.

But his wage isn't affected so there is no problem.....

3xh · 29-09-2020 08:37PM

topper75 wrote: »

Next time you hear a person on an Irish radio station like Kenny talk up the NPHET/restrictions position on things, it might be no harm to remember which side their bread is buttered on. They certainly do.

Would all be very funny if it wasn't taxpayers money they were using.

RTÉ radio is conspicuous in its absence! I understand that marshmallow, Tubridy, says all the right things anyway.

MadYaker · 29-09-2020 08:39PM

The fact that you think €85k is a large chunk of newstalk's budget is kind of cute.

3xh wrote: »

RTÉ radio is conspicuous in its absence! I understand that marshmallow, Tubridy, says all the right things anyway.

They are funded by the state.....

topper75 · 29-09-2020 08:41PM

MadYaker wrote: »

The fact that you think €85k is a large chunk of newstalk's budget is kind of cute.

Weigh that payment against funding offered by me and the likes. Their line is paid for.

They are paid mouths, not honest brokers is the point.

3xh · 29-09-2020 08:49PM

MadYaker wrote: »

The fact that you think €85k is a large chunk of newstalk's budget is kind of cute.

They are funded by the state.....

Ah stop it! Just because you’re sore over the previous threads.

€85k is €85k. Why did you mention just one station? It’s your taxes and mine paying for it. If the figures out of NPHET are deliberately vague, I want to know about it. And if radio stations up and down the country are being paid with state money to project a certain message I’d like to know that too.

They’re not inconsiderable sums, MadYaker.

I know RTÉ is funded by the state. They’re also funded by commercial money too.

walus · 29-09-2020 08:52PM

hynesie08 wrote: »

But his wage isn't affected so there is no problem.....

At this point I’m leaning toward the diagnosis: patient delusional, in full denial.

road_high · 29-09-2020 08:54PM

All make sense now- my local station KCLR has been in lock-step with government and Nphet since April.
They kicked up a bit of a ruckus in March about lost advertising revenues and thus needing govt support to keep going but it’s clear our “independent” media sector have been kept very very sweet since.
They have a regular Covid slot (or they did, Ive stopped listening) with an insufferable GP who clearly enjoys the unearned profile and limelight. But useful for stoking up the hysteria and keeping the mania going

road_high · 29-09-2020 08:57PM

topper75 wrote: »

Weigh that payment against funding offered by me and the likes. Their line is paid for.

They are paid mouths, not honest brokers is the point.

No wonder they’re delighted to keep the farce all going.
This would fund a staff member or two for a year. More funny money will be needed next year too- the “emergency” will continue as long as lucrative

Happydays2020 · 29-09-2020 09:08PM

MadYaker wrote: »

So you think this happens every year? Honestly? It's not an overcrowding scenario the HSE are worried about. A&Es are already overcrowded. It's patients dying (any patients not just covid patients) because ICUs and critical care beds are full. That wasn't something that was a possibility last year or the year before or the year before that.

Yes because each year 30000 plus people do not die.

29-09-2020 09:10PM

walus wrote: »

In 1929 the GDP in US dropped by 8.5% and those couple of years that followed were called The Great Depression. How much did the GDP of Ireland drop thus far? I’ll give you a clue - “only” by 6.1% - the greatest drop ever recorded. If you think this will bring no major consequences, good luck to you.

Yet most people are not impacted in fact with WFH many are saving a fortune, house prices rising, builders nearly turning off their phones as can’t keep up with work, half the county is doing up houses with left over holiday money etc.

There are parts of the economy hit of course but an awful lot isn’t either.

29-09-2020 09:11PM

Saw that talk in relation to the economy earlier...

Let’s pray the economic estimation models are better than the Covid number of cases/deaths models!!!

In all seriousness though, we were paying 20% of the workforce 350 per week at one point. Still lots getting payments. We are spending a fortune on testing/tracing/PPE/HSE. Spending big on the schools. Spending big to support business. No pubs or nightlife in months. No tourism for months.

If that doesn’t result in a huge recession, I think we’ll have to start asking serious questions about why we have all been feeling the pinch for the last 12 years.

Assetbacked · 29-09-2020 09:19PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Show me the data that doesn't correlate rise in cases with rise in hospitalisations

Reposting but since you are open to accepting the point maybe it is worth it;

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/epidemiologyofcovid-19inireland/

As at 16/5/20 - total cases 23879; total hospitalised 3094; 13%

Period of 17/5/20 to 16/7/20 - total cases 1798; total hospitalised 245; 13.6%

Period of 17/7/20 to date - total cases 9310; total hospitalised 244; 3%

weldoninhio · 29-09-2020 09:22PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Saw that talk in relation to the economy earlier...

Let’s pray the economic estimation models are better than the Covid number of cases/deaths models!!!

In all seriousness though, we were paying 20% of the workforce 350 per week at one point. Still lots getting payments. We are spending a fortune on testing/tracing/PPE/HSE. Spending big on the schools. Spending big to support business. No pubs or nightlife in months. No tourism for months.

If that doesn’t result in a huge recession, I think we’ll have to start asking serious questions about why we have all been feeling the pinch for the last 12 years.

Ah no, the noxenomics are there. We’re all flying. On the pigs back as it were.

Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - Read OP for Mod Warnings