Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Quantum Erasure

Bit cynical wrote: »

I'm not sure there's a difference. Most of our perceptions of the virus are really perceptions of the numbers and percentages: how likely are we to catch it; how likely to die etc. These are the aspects that are important to us.

Yeah but people say 9% like it's a tiny, single figures percentage, not realising that's it means one out of every 11 people...

risteard7

Can someone explain to me what the difference was with the students in Galway or the BLM protests in Dublin? Maybe Covid took the day off in Dublin?

Zebra3

MadYaker wrote: »

I'm going to ignore the ad revenue nonsense.

What data are you looking for? Underlying conditions etc? That may be covered by patient confidentiality.

I've never heard of anyone dying on a trolley in hospital in this country, a quick google gives me nothing. My understanding is that most of the people on trolleys are in A&E and haven't actually been admitted to the hospitals in question. It's not the same as ICU and high dependency units filling up which never really happens under normal circumstances.

You're going to ignore media outlets being driven by revenue?

Ahahahahahahahaha.

funnydoggy

Assetbacked wrote: »

If you are below 45 it would be thousands of M&Ms with one containing poison. But, to humour your analogy, applying it to covid, you would be locked in your bedroom with no choice but to try one of the M&Ms in order to go outside. Similarly, you wouldn't have a choice in going to a pub unless you tried one of the thousands of M&Ms. The bowl of M&Ms would perpetually be in the thousands, ever-increasing however as the odds of ending up in ICU and dying are getting lower and lower every day.

Maybe a few M&Ms might give you a pain in your belly :pac:

weldoninhio

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Eamon Dunphy latest podcast :

Ep 882: Covid-19 - Unless We Abandon Our Defeatist Strategy We're Looking at 35,000 Deaths. Prof. Gerry Killeen
@killeen_gerry
talks to Eamon #Covid-19 #Coronavirus


Thats a disgrace of an episode title and premise. This podcast has completely shat the bed.

Im ostensibly a fan of dunphy and i have loved his arse hattery over the years.

But this standard of reportage is a disservice to us all.

Listened to about 10 mins. As we are he’s expecting 10000 deaths in ROI. Absolute nonsense.

Bit cynical

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Yeah but people say 9% like it's a tiny, single figures percentage, not realising that's it means one out of every 11 people...

I think however most people know that for 9% percent is close to 1 in 10 of the population which is a huge number. If that is the widespread belief then you can understand politicians pandering to it with lockdowns etc. even if those lockdowns pose a greater threat than the virus itself.

Assetbacked

Deleted User wrote: »

The curve has been flattened since May (ie deaths and hospitalisations hitting the floor). Data then indicated many cases ended up in hospital. However, solid data is emerging that actually it isn't a given that spikes in covid cases results in spikes in hospital admissions. Therefore, your flatten the curve GIF is not applicable anymore, it is now defunct and not worth considering in the current stage of the covid fight.

Focusing on cases is losing sight of the problem which is hospitals being overrun. The accepted approach is slow but steady herd immunity (with a vaccine combined with natural herd immunity) but making sure the health service can manage those that need treatment. For the last 4 months, post-strictest lockdown, nothing in the numbers suggests anything other than the crisis is over. The health service has been protected and has (or should have) significantly enhanced its resources for treating patients that need it.

Therefore, to go with the lack of a health justification to continue with restrictions, there is no economic cost justification for continued destruction to livelihoods in certain sectors and no moral justification for imposing severe State restrictions on every day life for people.

MadYaker

Zebra3 wrote: »

You're going to ignore media outlets being driven by revenue?

Ahahahahahahahaha.

What effect do they have on the virus?

Assetbacked

risteard7 wrote: »

Can someone explain to me what the difference was with the students in Galway or the BLM protests in Dublin? Maybe Covid took the day off in Dublin?

Are you serious? It's a pretty clear distinction; funerals of certain individuals, BLM protests, middle-aged people having dinner parties and health staff not moving out of home with elderly parents are acceptable while funerals of some individuals, house parties of those under 30, certain protests and going to the pub for a drink full stop are completely unnacceptable. It's straight-forward really.

MadYaker

Assetbacked wrote: »

The curve has been flattened since May (ie deaths and hospitalisations hitting the floor). Data then indicated many cases ended up in hospital. However, solid data is emerging that actually it isn't a given that spikes in covid cases results in spikes in hospital admissions. Therefore, your flatten the curve GIF is not applicable anymore, it is now defunct and not worth considering in the current stage of the covid fight.

Focusing on cases is losing sight of the problem which is hospitals being overrun. The accepted approach is slow but steady herd immunity (with a vaccine combined with natural herd immunity) but making sure the health service can manage those that need treatment. For the last 4 months, post-strictest lockdown, nothing in the numbers suggests anything other than the crisis is over. The health service has been protected and has (or should have) significantly enhanced its resources for treating patients that need it.

If thats your honest opinion then id love to see what numbers you are looking at? You can clearly see the increase on covid cases in hospital https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-2000-28-september-2020.pdf

Ignoring case numbers is dumb. On this thread weeks ago when case numbers started to creep up I said it would eventually translate in to increasing hospital numbers and I was scoffed at and called a fear monger. Now here we are with numbers in hospital ticking up at fairly steady rate and you still think im talking sh!t? I'll find the posts for you if you'd like.

polesheep

MadYaker wrote: »

I'm going to ignore the ad revenue nonsense.

What data are you looking for? Underlying conditions etc? That may be covered by patient confidentiality.

I've never heard of anyone dying on a trolley in hospital in this country, a quick google gives me nothing. My understanding is that most of the people on trolleys are in A&E and haven't actually been admitted to the hospitals in question. It's not the same as ICU and high dependency units filling up which never really happens under normal circumstances.

If you don't believe that ad revenue is a big factor in media coverage/slant then you are naive.

There are lots of people that die on trollies, just as there are people who die in the ambulance on route to a hospital.

CruelSummer

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0929/1168227-department-of-finance-projections/

Are Leprechaun economics making a comeback for 2020?

3xh

MadYaker wrote: »

What effect do they have on the virus?

He’s not talking about the virus. He’s talking about why so many media outlets continue with the dubious and doomsday rhetoric. Money.
Covid is a shot in the arm for media outlets after years of revenue decline.

The virus figures are actually looking after themselves. They’re on the floor regarding deaths, transmissions are no worse than April’s, yet we’re being told we’re basically back there now.

Oh. And the next 10 days are critical.

Only an absolute numerical illiterate would still believe NPHET’s and RTE’s figures and coverage.

MadYaker

3xh wrote: »

He’s not talking about the virus. He’s talking about why so many media outlets continue with the dubious and doomsday rhetoric. Money.
Covid is a shot in the arm for media outlets after years of revenue decline.

The virus figures are actually looking after themselves. They’re on the floor regarding deaths, transmissions are no worse than April’s, yet we’re being told we’re basically back there now.

Oh. And the next 10 days are critical.

Only an absolute numerical illiterate would still believe NPHET’s and RTE’s figures and coverage.

Another person living in a dream land. Maybe it's a coping strategy?

3xh

MadYaker wrote: »

Another person living in a dream land. Maybe it's a coping strategy?

If it makes you feel safer.......

MadYaker

3xh wrote: »

If it makes you feel safer.......

Honestly, I just didn't know what else to say to that post. Surely if I was numerically illiterate I wouldn't be able to read the numbers anyway? If you were trying to make some point you failed.

Assetbacked

MadYaker wrote: »

If thats your honest opinion then id love to see what numbers you are looking at? You can clearly see the increase on covid cases in hospital https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-2000-28-september-2020.pdf

Ignoring case numbers is dumb. On this thread weeks ago when case numbers started to creep up I said it would eventually translate in to increasing hospital numbers and I was scoffed at and called a fear monger. Now here we are with numbers in hospital ticking up at fairly steady rate and you still think im talking sh!t? I'll find the posts for you if you'd like.

The crisis part was rapidly increasing hospitalisations and deaths rising too in line with the uptick in cases. Cases are always going to increase once lockdown was lifted but that is not the concern, hospitalisations and deaths are. Mid-May is when lockdown ended so we have had over 4 months of data showing cases increasing but hospitalisations have not risen in line with the cases (see p12 of your link).

In fact, hospitalisations have likely increased as hospitals have come back from their lockdown holiday and have started to treat patients again, all of whom are now being tested for covid but not necessarily being treated for covid. Therefore, it is not covid which is at risk of overwhelming the hospitals but the fact we have one of the worst health services in the whole of Europe that is incompetent at managing its own workload, using the covid crisis as an excuse to hide behind its own inefficiencies and wastefulness.

Have a look at the FT's interactive covid tool; https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=irl&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&byDate=0&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=deaths

Use the options to amend it to show "numbers per million"; "linear"; "dates adjusted to outbreak start - off". Search Ireland and just compare the rise in cases to the rise in deaths - the picture emerging supports a view that covid took out the only vulnerable to it already. Similarly, look at the US, it had its first wave of cases and deaths in April, then a significant surge in cases in July, but no following deaths.

3xh

MadYaker wrote: »

If thats your honest opinion then id love to see what numbers you are looking at? You can clearly see the increase on covid cases in hospital https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-2000-28-september-2020.pdf

Ignoring case numbers is dumb. On this thread weeks ago when case numbers started to creep up I said it would eventually translate in to increasing hospital numbers and I was scoffed at and called a fear monger. Now here we are with numbers in hospital ticking up at fairly steady rate and you still think im talking sh!t? I'll find the posts for you if you'd like.

MadYaker, of the hospital admissions announced yesterday, how many were people who recently contracted it, felt unwell, got tested as positive, deteriorated and were (basically) called in by the hospital for further observation?

I’ll give you a clue; you don’t know. Because Glynn refuses to say and the media refuse to demand why.

It is undeniable. NPHET want to allow that misunderstanding of the figures take root in society. 100 hospitalised people, Covid positive with broken legs is VERY different to 100 people beginning to deteriorate and struggle for breath.

Please just admit this.

You’re allowing yourself to be fooled by NPHET, The Irish Government and the media outlets who perpetuate that misunderstanding for their own benefit.

CruelSummer

CruelSummer wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0929/1168227-department-of-finance-projections/

Are Leprechaun economics making a comeback for 2020?

As I have been pointing out on the thread the economy is not being hit near as hard as some would claim, this is not a normal recession (if you could even call it a recession).

Are you trying to claim the gov are lying?

Jackman25

MadYaker wrote: »

If thats your honest opinion then id love to see what numbers you are looking at? You can clearly see the increase on covid cases in hospital https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-2000-28-september-2020.pdf

Ignoring case numbers is dumb. On this thread weeks ago when case numbers started to creep up I said it would eventually translate in to increasing hospital numbers and I was scoffed at and called a fear monger. Now here we are with numbers in hospital ticking up at fairly steady rate and you still think im talking sh!t? I'll find the posts for you if you'd like.

100 people in hospital should be a piece of piss for our health service to deal with.
You really wonder what have they been doing for 6 months?
Did they not ever envision a scenario where when schools went back and everything opened up that we might end up having to deal with 100 people in hospital.
We should be able to comfortably handle multiples of that number, instead of looking at this nonsense of locking down counties with minor spikes in cases.

Ashleigh1986

Jackman25 wrote: »

100 people in hospital should be a piece of piss for our health service to deal with.
You really wonder what have they been doing for 6 months?
Did they not ever envision a scenario where when schools went back and everything opened up that we might end up having to deal with 100 people in hospital.
We should be able to comfortably handle multiples of that number, instead of looking at this nonsense of locking down counties with minor spikes in cases.

6 months for the hse to get their act together .... I would safely say they couldn't do it in 6 years !!!
It's not the nurses fault ... As with a lot of things it's down to the inability of management to earn their high salaries .

risteard7

The roads are more dangerous

3xh

Grant Billions Bifocals wrote: »

As I have been pointing out on the thread the economy is not being hit near as hard as some would claim, this is not a normal recession (if you could even call it a recession).

Are you trying to claim the gov are lying?

Haha! Awh nox. This place would be an echo chamber without you. Thank you for that at least.

MadYaker

3xh wrote: »

MadYaker, of the hospital admissions announced yesterday, how many were people who recently contracted it, felt unwell, got tested as positive, deteriorated and were (basically) called in by the hospital for further observation?

I’ll give you a clue; you don’t know. Because Glynn refuses to say and the media refuse to demand why.

It is undeniable. NPHET want to allow that misunderstanding of the figures take root in society. 100 hospitalised people, Covid positive with broken legs is VERY different to 100 people beginning to deteriorate and struggle for breath.

Please just admit this.

You’re allowing yourself to be fooled by NPHET, The Irish Government and the media outlets who perpetuate that misunderstanding for their own benefit.

That's a conspiracy with zero evidence supporting it. I base my opinions on facts and evidence. You may think that this is all being invented by gov and NPHET for some reason but you must surely wonder how, if that is the case, the same situation is playing out in many countries all over the world?

MadYaker

Jackman25 wrote: »

100 people in hospital should be a piece of piss for our health service to deal with.
You really wonder what have they been doing for 6 months?
Did they not ever envision a scenario where when schools went back and everything opened up that we might end up having to deal with 100 people in hospital.
We should be able to comfortably handle multiples of that number, instead of looking at this nonsense of locking down counties with minor spikes in cases.

Talking about what we should be able to do doesn't fix the current situation. We have to work with what we have.

3xh

MadYaker wrote: »

That's a conspiracy with zero evidence supporting it. I base my opinions on facts and evidence. You may think that this is all being invented by gov and NPHET for some reason but you must surely wonder how if that is the case, the same situation is playing out in many countries all over the world?

Are you serious? So you think when Glynn says ‘we have 100 hospitalisations today’ he means the one and only reason each and every one of those 100 are in hospital is because their initial positive Covid test outside of hospital has now worsened and they’ve been brought in for Covid specific observations??!!

Awh my god.

Oranage2

3xh wrote: »

Are you serious? So you think when Glynn says ‘we have 100 hospitalisations today’ he means the one and only reason each and every one of those 100 are in hospital is because their initial positive Covid test outside of hospital has now worsened and they’ve been brought in for Covid specific observations??!!

Awh my god.

All sprained ankles?

whisky_galore

weldoninhio wrote: »

Would it be so poisonous that I wouldn’t notice if I ate it??

Who knows, you could die roaring too.

MadYaker

3xh wrote: »

Are you serious? So you think when Glynn says ‘we have 100 hospitalisations today’ he means the one and only reason each and every one of those 100 are in hospital is because their initial positive Covid test outside of hospital has now worsened and they’ve been brought in for Covid specific observations??!!

Awh my god.

It's difficult to respond when you are putting words in my mouth like this. I don't really listen to glynn or RTE. I read these most days and I form my opinions on the figures within and the trend that you can see when you look at the figures for the previous two weeks. https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/coronavirus-daily-operations-updates.html

I don't know why you are so hung up on the intricate details of these patients. We have a certain amount of healthcare capacity. A bed taken is a bed taken. Covid patients are filling up the beds. This is a problem that we need to solve. Did you notice this happening last year or the year before?

Spanish Eyes

Nox has been on the nox, see Oliver Bond discards. LOL

But in fairness, s/he is not personally abusive to anyone, just a bit haughty and know it all. Let them at it.

Loves the attention no doubt.