Relaxation of Restrictions, Part V - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Zebra3

Penfailed wrote: »

...apart from all those stories that you are hearing about in the media?

The media told us that there were chemical weapons in Iraq.

Just parroted the line from those at the top.

whisky_galore

weldoninhio wrote: »

In fairness the odds are massively in your favour to survive if you are under 65 and don’t have a chronic illness.

If you had a bowl of 100 M&Ms but only one of those M&Ms contained poison, would you still eat some?

MadYaker

Zebra3 wrote: »

The media told us that there were chemical weapons in Iraq.

Just parroted the line from those at the top.

Is it your opinion that this "long covid" is something completely invented by the media?

Zebra3 wrote: »

Our hospitals are constantly overrun and few give a toss when people were dying on hospital trolleys, but now we all suddenly have to be concerned about it!!!!

Another lie. Close to capacity yes, but not overrun.

TRANQUILLO

Eamon Dunphy latest podcast :

Ep 882: Covid-19 - Unless We Abandon Our Defeatist Strategy We're Looking at 35,000 Deaths. Prof. Gerry Killeen
@killeen_gerry
talks to Eamon #Covid-19 #Coronavirus


Thats a disgrace of an episode title and premise. This podcast has completely shat the bed.

Im ostensibly a fan of dunphy and i have loved his arse hattery over the years.

But this standard of reportage is a disservice to us all.

Quantum Erasure

Bit cynical wrote: »

There's a huge difference between the public perception of the mortality rate of the virus and the actual rate.

In the poor city of Manaus in Brazil the virus went through the population fairly quickly with an estimated 66% catching the virus. The rapidly falling infection rates are believed to be due to the widespread immunity in that region.

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/09/22/1008709/brazil-manaus-covid-coronavirus-herd-immunity-pandemic/

The interesting thing here is that the overall death rate from catching the virus there is 0.28% or 0.18% of the overall population.

Contrast this with surveys in developed countries such as in the UK where people believe that 7% of the population have already died from the virus or the US where people believe 9% have died. These beliefs are out by a factor of 38 times and 48 times respectively.

That's to do with perception of numbers / percentages rather than perception of the virus. As seen just a couple posts above, 'shure it's only 1% chance I'll end up in ICU, that's miniscule...'

Assetbacked

Deleted User wrote: »

Not sure what you're confused about that warranted such a snarky response.

If the hospitals are overrun, even more people will die of routine illnesses that would otherwise be easily avoided. Such as your appendix bursting.

Are you stupid/thick/curtain twitcher/granny killer etc.

What basis does your post have in the covid reality? There is no indication covid will cause any of the above, therefore, why lockdown society and destroy the economy?

Zebra3

MadYaker wrote: »

Is it your opinion that this "long covid" is something completely invented by the media?

Another lie. Close to capacity yes, but not overrun.

It's all about generating advertising revenue.

Covid hysteria brings in the bread.

What will happen to advertising revenue if they analysis everything properly and tell people that it's not that big a deal?

Why don't the media after a long covid story, give people the data? Why are they concealing it?

If the hospitals weren't being overrun, why were people dying on trolleys then? Or maybe you count a trolley in a corridor as capacity, is that it?

weldoninhio

whisky_galore wrote: »

If you had a bowl of 100 M&Ms but only one of those M&Ms contained poison, would you still eat some?

Would it be so poisonous that I wouldn’t notice if I ate it??

Assetbacked

whisky_galore wrote: »

If you had a bowl of 100 M&Ms but only one of those M&Ms contained poison, would you still eat some?

If you are below 45 it would be thousands of M&Ms with one containing poison. But, to humour your analogy, applying it to covid, you would be locked in your bedroom with no choice but to try one of the M&Ms in order to go outside. Similarly, you wouldn't have a choice in going to a pub unless you tried one of the thousands of M&Ms. The bowl of M&Ms would perpetually be in the thousands, ever-increasing however as the odds of ending up in ICU and dying are getting lower and lower every day.

Bit cynical

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

That's to do with perception of numbers / percentages rather than perception of the virus.

I'm not sure there's a difference. Most of our perceptions of the virus are really perceptions of the numbers and percentages: how likely are we to catch it; how likely to die etc. These are the aspects that are important to us.

Assetbacked

Assetbacked wrote: »

What basis does your post have in the covid reality? There is no indication covid will cause any of the above, therefore, why lockdown society and destroy the economy?

MadYaker

Zebra3 wrote: »

It's all about generating advertising revenue.

Covid hysteria brings in the bread.

What will happen to advertising revenue if they analysis everything properly and tell people that it's not that big a deal?

Why don't the media after a long covid story, give people the data? Why are they concealing it?

If the hospitals weren't being overrun, why were people dying on trolleys then? Or maybe you count a trolley in a corridor as capacity, is that it?

I'm going to ignore the ad revenue nonsense.

What data are you looking for? Underlying conditions etc? That may be covered by patient confidentiality.

I've never heard of anyone dying on a trolley in hospital in this country, a quick google gives me nothing. My understanding is that most of the people on trolleys are in A&E and haven't actually been admitted to the hospitals in question. It's not the same as ICU and high dependency units filling up which never really happens under normal circumstances.

Quantum Erasure

Bit cynical wrote: »

I'm not sure there's a difference. Most of our perceptions of the virus are really perceptions of the numbers and percentages: how likely are we to catch it; how likely to die etc. These are the aspects that are important to us.

Yeah but people say 9% like it's a tiny, single figures percentage, not realising that's it means one out of every 11 people...

risteard7

Can someone explain to me what the difference was with the students in Galway or the BLM protests in Dublin? Maybe Covid took the day off in Dublin?

Zebra3

MadYaker wrote: »

I'm going to ignore the ad revenue nonsense.

What data are you looking for? Underlying conditions etc? That may be covered by patient confidentiality.

I've never heard of anyone dying on a trolley in hospital in this country, a quick google gives me nothing. My understanding is that most of the people on trolleys are in A&E and haven't actually been admitted to the hospitals in question. It's not the same as ICU and high dependency units filling up which never really happens under normal circumstances.

You're going to ignore media outlets being driven by revenue?

Ahahahahahahahaha.

funnydoggy

Assetbacked wrote: »

If you are below 45 it would be thousands of M&Ms with one containing poison. But, to humour your analogy, applying it to covid, you would be locked in your bedroom with no choice but to try one of the M&Ms in order to go outside. Similarly, you wouldn't have a choice in going to a pub unless you tried one of the thousands of M&Ms. The bowl of M&Ms would perpetually be in the thousands, ever-increasing however as the odds of ending up in ICU and dying are getting lower and lower every day.

Maybe a few M&Ms might give you a pain in your belly :pac:

weldoninhio

TRANQUILLO wrote: »

Eamon Dunphy latest podcast :

Ep 882: Covid-19 - Unless We Abandon Our Defeatist Strategy We're Looking at 35,000 Deaths. Prof. Gerry Killeen
@killeen_gerry
talks to Eamon #Covid-19 #Coronavirus


Thats a disgrace of an episode title and premise. This podcast has completely shat the bed.

Im ostensibly a fan of dunphy and i have loved his arse hattery over the years.

But this standard of reportage is a disservice to us all.

Listened to about 10 mins. As we are he’s expecting 10000 deaths in ROI. Absolute nonsense.

Bit cynical

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Yeah but people say 9% like it's a tiny, single figures percentage, not realising that's it means one out of every 11 people...

I think however most people know that for 9% percent is close to 1 in 10 of the population which is a huge number. If that is the widespread belief then you can understand politicians pandering to it with lockdowns etc. even if those lockdowns pose a greater threat than the virus itself.

Assetbacked

Deleted User wrote: »

The curve has been flattened since May (ie deaths and hospitalisations hitting the floor). Data then indicated many cases ended up in hospital. However, solid data is emerging that actually it isn't a given that spikes in covid cases results in spikes in hospital admissions. Therefore, your flatten the curve GIF is not applicable anymore, it is now defunct and not worth considering in the current stage of the covid fight.

Focusing on cases is losing sight of the problem which is hospitals being overrun. The accepted approach is slow but steady herd immunity (with a vaccine combined with natural herd immunity) but making sure the health service can manage those that need treatment. For the last 4 months, post-strictest lockdown, nothing in the numbers suggests anything other than the crisis is over. The health service has been protected and has (or should have) significantly enhanced its resources for treating patients that need it.

Therefore, to go with the lack of a health justification to continue with restrictions, there is no economic cost justification for continued destruction to livelihoods in certain sectors and no moral justification for imposing severe State restrictions on every day life for people.

MadYaker

Zebra3 wrote: »

You're going to ignore media outlets being driven by revenue?

Ahahahahahahahaha.

What effect do they have on the virus?

Assetbacked

risteard7 wrote: »

Can someone explain to me what the difference was with the students in Galway or the BLM protests in Dublin? Maybe Covid took the day off in Dublin?

Are you serious? It's a pretty clear distinction; funerals of certain individuals, BLM protests, middle-aged people having dinner parties and health staff not moving out of home with elderly parents are acceptable while funerals of some individuals, house parties of those under 30, certain protests and going to the pub for a drink full stop are completely unnacceptable. It's straight-forward really.

MadYaker

Assetbacked wrote: »

The curve has been flattened since May (ie deaths and hospitalisations hitting the floor). Data then indicated many cases ended up in hospital. However, solid data is emerging that actually it isn't a given that spikes in covid cases results in spikes in hospital admissions. Therefore, your flatten the curve GIF is not applicable anymore, it is now defunct and not worth considering in the current stage of the covid fight.

Focusing on cases is losing sight of the problem which is hospitals being overrun. The accepted approach is slow but steady herd immunity (with a vaccine combined with natural herd immunity) but making sure the health service can manage those that need treatment. For the last 4 months, post-strictest lockdown, nothing in the numbers suggests anything other than the crisis is over. The health service has been protected and has (or should have) significantly enhanced its resources for treating patients that need it.

If thats your honest opinion then id love to see what numbers you are looking at? You can clearly see the increase on covid cases in hospital https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-2000-28-september-2020.pdf

Ignoring case numbers is dumb. On this thread weeks ago when case numbers started to creep up I said it would eventually translate in to increasing hospital numbers and I was scoffed at and called a fear monger. Now here we are with numbers in hospital ticking up at fairly steady rate and you still think im talking sh!t? I'll find the posts for you if you'd like.

polesheep

MadYaker wrote: »

I'm going to ignore the ad revenue nonsense.

What data are you looking for? Underlying conditions etc? That may be covered by patient confidentiality.

I've never heard of anyone dying on a trolley in hospital in this country, a quick google gives me nothing. My understanding is that most of the people on trolleys are in A&E and haven't actually been admitted to the hospitals in question. It's not the same as ICU and high dependency units filling up which never really happens under normal circumstances.

If you don't believe that ad revenue is a big factor in media coverage/slant then you are naive.

There are lots of people that die on trollies, just as there are people who die in the ambulance on route to a hospital.

CruelSummer

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0929/1168227-department-of-finance-projections/

Are Leprechaun economics making a comeback for 2020?

3xh

MadYaker wrote: »

What effect do they have on the virus?

He’s not talking about the virus. He’s talking about why so many media outlets continue with the dubious and doomsday rhetoric. Money.
Covid is a shot in the arm for media outlets after years of revenue decline.

The virus figures are actually looking after themselves. They’re on the floor regarding deaths, transmissions are no worse than April’s, yet we’re being told we’re basically back there now.

Oh. And the next 10 days are critical.

Only an absolute numerical illiterate would still believe NPHET’s and RTE’s figures and coverage.

MadYaker

3xh wrote: »

He’s not talking about the virus. He’s talking about why so many media outlets continue with the dubious and doomsday rhetoric. Money.
Covid is a shot in the arm for media outlets after years of revenue decline.

The virus figures are actually looking after themselves. They’re on the floor regarding deaths, transmissions are no worse than April’s, yet we’re being told we’re basically back there now.

Oh. And the next 10 days are critical.

Only an absolute numerical illiterate would still believe NPHET’s and RTE’s figures and coverage.

Another person living in a dream land. Maybe it's a coping strategy?

3xh

MadYaker wrote: »

Another person living in a dream land. Maybe it's a coping strategy?

If it makes you feel safer.......

MadYaker

3xh wrote: »

If it makes you feel safer.......

Honestly, I just didn't know what else to say to that post. Surely if I was numerically illiterate I wouldn't be able to read the numbers anyway? If you were trying to make some point you failed.

Assetbacked

MadYaker wrote: »

If thats your honest opinion then id love to see what numbers you are looking at? You can clearly see the increase on covid cases in hospital https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-2000-28-september-2020.pdf

Ignoring case numbers is dumb. On this thread weeks ago when case numbers started to creep up I said it would eventually translate in to increasing hospital numbers and I was scoffed at and called a fear monger. Now here we are with numbers in hospital ticking up at fairly steady rate and you still think im talking sh!t? I'll find the posts for you if you'd like.

The crisis part was rapidly increasing hospitalisations and deaths rising too in line with the uptick in cases. Cases are always going to increase once lockdown was lifted but that is not the concern, hospitalisations and deaths are. Mid-May is when lockdown ended so we have had over 4 months of data showing cases increasing but hospitalisations have not risen in line with the cases (see p12 of your link).

In fact, hospitalisations have likely increased as hospitals have come back from their lockdown holiday and have started to treat patients again, all of whom are now being tested for covid but not necessarily being treated for covid. Therefore, it is not covid which is at risk of overwhelming the hospitals but the fact we have one of the worst health services in the whole of Europe that is incompetent at managing its own workload, using the covid crisis as an excuse to hide behind its own inefficiencies and wastefulness.

Have a look at the FT's interactive covid tool; https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=irl&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&byDate=0&cumulative=0&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=deaths

Use the options to amend it to show "numbers per million"; "linear"; "dates adjusted to outbreak start - off". Search Ireland and just compare the rise in cases to the rise in deaths - the picture emerging supports a view that covid took out the only vulnerable to it already. Similarly, look at the US, it had its first wave of cases and deaths in April, then a significant surge in cases in July, but no following deaths.

3xh

MadYaker wrote: »

If thats your honest opinion then id love to see what numbers you are looking at? You can clearly see the increase on covid cases in hospital https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-2000-28-september-2020.pdf

Ignoring case numbers is dumb. On this thread weeks ago when case numbers started to creep up I said it would eventually translate in to increasing hospital numbers and I was scoffed at and called a fear monger. Now here we are with numbers in hospital ticking up at fairly steady rate and you still think im talking sh!t? I'll find the posts for you if you'd like.

MadYaker, of the hospital admissions announced yesterday, how many were people who recently contracted it, felt unwell, got tested as positive, deteriorated and were (basically) called in by the hospital for further observation?

I’ll give you a clue; you don’t know. Because Glynn refuses to say and the media refuse to demand why.

It is undeniable. NPHET want to allow that misunderstanding of the figures take root in society. 100 hospitalised people, Covid positive with broken legs is VERY different to 100 people beginning to deteriorate and struggle for breath.

Please just admit this.

You’re allowing yourself to be fooled by NPHET, The Irish Government and the media outlets who perpetuate that misunderstanding for their own benefit.