Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 09:55PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

You didn't mention the fact that they retest weak positives so this reduces false positives overall and unlikely that they're as high as you say.

It says that it is incredibly difficult to distinguish between weak positives and false positives because the PCR cycle rate of 35-40 is so high. De Gascun spoke about this in his tweets.
https://twitter.com/CillianDeGascun/status/1305252480213803008?s=20

growleaves · 22-09-2020 09:55PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Based on the HSE response just now... we've had approx 600 false positives in the last 7 days..........

What :eek:

GooglePlus · 22-09-2020 09:55PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Where has it been said they are doing that? Going by the twitter attachment they are not doing it

It's on the photo attached on the tweet, the actual release from the HSE, not the tweet. Click into it.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 09:55PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Yes, you're wrong. You didn't read the thing fully. They retest weak positives, so the figure for false positives quoted there is likely lower

https://twitter.com/CillianDeGascun/status/1305252480213803008?s=20

22-09-2020 09:55PM

manofwisdom wrote: »

Can someone tell me what number of cases per 100,00 population does it take for a county to go into Level 3 or down to Level 1?

Level 1 is fantasy. 2021.

Level 3 I would say over 100 per 100,000 with a decent percentage of community transmission.

gmisk · 22-09-2020 09:56PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We're using such a high PCR cycle I'm fairly certain the chances of false negatives are quite low.

Is this like you were sure there would be no second wave? And then you said there was always going to be a second wave?

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 09:56PM

gmisk wrote: »

Is this like you were sure there would be no second wave? And then you said there was always going to be a second wave?

What? I know how PCR works. Read the tweets by De Gascun.

gmisk · 22-09-2020 09:57PM

growleaves wrote: »

What :eek:

Read the full thing....it's BS they regularly retest weak positives.
There are also likely to be false negatives

22-09-2020 09:59PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Fairly big development in the last hour.
HSE admits that 70-80 cases per day (for 10000 tests) are false positives.
Christ.
https://twitter.com/DavQuinn/status/1308493818027741184?s=20

Ivor Cummins will absoloutely love this.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 09:59PM

gmisk wrote: »

Read the full thing....it's BS they regularly retest weak positives.
There are also likely to be false negatives

How are you calling a HSE response BS? Did you not read De Gascuns Twitter thread? They can't distinguish between low load and false positives.

"A high Ct value (indicating a low virus burden) does not and cannot distinguish between a virus load on the way up (e.g. in a pre-symptomatic individual), a virus load on the way down (e.g. in a recovering individual), a poorly taken specimen, and a false positive result."

fritzelly · 22-09-2020 09:59PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

It's on the photo attached on the tweet, the actual release from the HSE, not the tweet. Click into it.

No it doesn't

"it is often not possible to distinguish between true positives and false positives"

Azatadine · 22-09-2020 09:59PM

Jaysus.....Thomas Ryan got a fair old hauling over the coals there on Prime Time by the Oxford professor......challenged him on every single thing he said. He was often speechless.....

DangerScouse · 22-09-2020 10:00PM

Azatadine wrote: »

Jaysus.....Thomas Ryan got a fair old hauling over the coals there on Prime Time by the Oxford professor......challenged him on every single thing he said. He was often speechless.....

At her stupidity....

GooglePlus · 22-09-2020 10:00PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

What? I know how PCR works. Read the tweets by De Gascun.

Fair play but did you read what you shared at all?

"although these numbers are likely to be reduced when retesting low (weak) positives."

They say it's not always possible to distinguish the low from high but what I'm saying is, the 70-80 figure is inflated and your figures are too.

The hospitalisations are proof enough and this is just going to make people complacent. Look across Europe and at home, false positives are a non story if there are plenty of true positives alongside them.

Arghus · 22-09-2020 10:01PM

polesheep wrote: »

No, illustrative of how those responsible cannot protect those that are obviously the most vulnerable.

It can be illustrative of both things.

lukas8888 · 22-09-2020 10:01PM

Tomas Ryan taken completely taken apart by Oxford professor on prime time.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 22-09-2020 10:01PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Based on the HSE response just now... we've had approx 600 false positives in the last 7 days..........

False positives show up as low viral load positives. These get retested. They aren't included in the daily numbers.

Martina1991 · 22-09-2020 10:01PM

ACitizenErased wrote:

Very interesting thread. Some believe that since June, our testing methods have changed, and a higher amount of false positive tests are being returned.

That is statistical speculation.

There are different platforms used in labs throughout the country. To imply that during the summer, all labs using different assays suddenly decided to increase the cycle threshold in an attempt to find more positive cases is highly unlikely. Testing methods do not just change unless new information or methods are developed by the manufacturer.

ACitizenErased wrote:

Fairly big development in the last hour. HSE admits that 70-80 cases per day (for 10000 tests) are false positives. Christ.

That reply doesnt make sense and it looks like whoever wrote that HSE reply misunderstood the analytical specificity.

A FP rate of say 1% doesnt mean 1% of all tests are false. It means 1% of positives may be false.

Eg. If 10,000 tests were carried out and 100 of them were positive, then 1% of the 100 were false positives. Thats 1 false pos result out of 9,900.

Think about it. 70 to 80 cases a day suddenly being false results. That doesnt sound right.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 10:01PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Fair play but did you read what you shared at all?

"although these numbers are likely to be reduced when retesting low (weak) positives."

They say it's not always possible to distinguish the low from high but what I'm saying is, the 70-80 figure is inflated and your figures are too.

The hospitalisations are proof enough and this is just going to make people complacent. Look across Europe and at home, false positives are a non story if there are plenty of true positives alongside them.

If you want to ignore what the HSE and De Gascun say then shoot.
Not sure what the last point has to do with anything, 340 - 80 is still = 260, a big number.

landofthetree · 22-09-2020 10:01PM

Numbers in hospital and ICU have been doubling every 2 weekssince late August.

That's why we are at level 3 in Dublin.

Even if they have been 80 false positives a day we would still be at level 3.

Plumbthedepths · 22-09-2020 10:02PM

Azatadine wrote: »

Jaysus.....Thomas Ryan got a fair old hauling over the coals there on Prime Time by the Oxford professor......challenged him on every single thing he said. He was often speechless.....

Do you mind me asking for a few examples? Haven't access to a TV at the moment.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 10:02PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

That is statistical speculation.

There are different platforms used in labs throughout the country. To imply that during the summer, all labs using different assays suddenly decided to increase the cycle threshold in an attempt to find more positive cases is highly unlikely. Testing methods do not just change unless new information or methods are developed by the manufacturer.

That reply doesnt make sense and it looks like whoever wrote that HSE reply misunderstood the analytical specificity.

A FP rate of say 1% doesnt mean 1% of all tests are false. It means 1% of positives may be false.

Eg. If 10,000 tests were carried out and 100 of them were positive, then 1% of the 100 were false positives. Thats 1 false pos result out of 9,900.

Think about it. 70 to 80 cases a day suddenly being false results. That doesnt sound right.

They're hardly letting some random intern answer PCR testing questions, surely?

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 10:03PM

landofthetree wrote: »

Numbers in hospital and ICU have been doubling every 2 weekssince late August.

That's why we are at level 3 in Dublin.

Even if they have been 80 false positives a day we would still be at level 3.

Exactly, numbers are still big. 340 - 80 is still 260 cases today, a big number. Just thought it was mad the HSE would post something like that.

GooglePlus · 22-09-2020 10:04PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

If you want to ignore what the HSE and De Gascun say then shoot.
Not sure what the last point has to do with anything, 340 - 80 is still = 260, a big number.

You literally made the point I made, so you got it after all. False positives aside, true positives are still high and on the rise.

I'm not ignoring what the HSE are saying, I'm just not picking what suits to share here.

Thierry12 · 22-09-2020 10:04PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Very interesting thread. Some believe that since June, our testing methods have changed, and a higher amount of false positive tests are being returned.
https://twitter.com/kilkelly/status/1307052803957960704?s=20

That's been obvious for a very long time with those 0.5%-1.0% prevalence rates out of 10,000 tests carried out, people out perfect healthy playing rugby, soccer etc that tested positive, were always a false positive.

Tests are 99% specificity and we were at 1% prevalence, makes sense that ;-)

Money wasted on those tests is criminal

Absolute rubbish

Yes and no crap, they are as vague as can be

Don't tell us anything about viral load, who's contagious, who's not contagious, tell us **** all

If we could test to see did we have the virus before upon that negative pcr result would be nice too, some peace of mind

We can't do those tests either as those antibody tests don't work past a few months, we need some kind of T Cell test, but we are not sure how they work, more rubbish

We also dont know how long immunity lasts so t cell and antibody tests are pointless, but we have vaccines out soon, even though we dont know how long immunity will last from them either

What do we expect, we all went to the same schools and I didn't know any genius

dubdaymo · 22-09-2020 10:05PM

lukas8888 wrote: »

Tomas Ryan taken completely taken apart by Oxford professor on prime time.

Yes, indeed, it was a joy to watch, at long last, someone take him to the cleaners - and despite the host's PC encrusted interruptions.

ACitizenErased · 22-09-2020 10:05PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

You literally made the point I made, so you got it after all. False positives aside, true positives are still high and on the rise.

I'm not ignoring what the HSE are saying, I'm just not picking what suits to share here.

I never said they weren't

DangerScouse · 22-09-2020 10:08PM

lukas8888 wrote: »

Tomas Ryan taken completely taken apart by Oxford professor on prime time.

The woman made a complete fool of herself. Thank god she's not in charge of our health policy.

Goldengirl · 22-09-2020 10:08PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Based on the HSE response just now... we've had approx 600 false positives in the last 7 days..........

Let's see how this pans out before jumping to conclusions.
One point though , after all the lies and misinformation by that man and the Iona Institute, why would you be even reading tweets by DAVID QUINN ...Ugh !

lukas8888 · 22-09-2020 10:09PM

dubdaymo wrote: »

Yes, indeed, it was a joy to watch, at long last, someone take him to the cleaners - and despite the host's PC encrusted interruptions.

She made him look like he was a first year undergraduate,getting a dressing down from the professor.

Covid 19 Part XXIII-33,444 in ROI(1,792 deaths) 9,541 in NI(577 deaths)(22/09)Read OP

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