How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

meeeeh · 03-09-2020 12:44PM

Boggles wrote: »

:pac:

Yes, they are more worried about the flu for which they have effective treatments and vaccines and not the novel virus that is exponentially more deadly and more infectious where virtually no one has immunity from.

Are you on a wind up?

Why do you think that people are on trolleys every winter? It just might be that flu they are not worried about at all. Sure it's treatable, it only kills thousands of people every year (in the world).

Where did I say it's only flu? I said it's together with flu, other treatments and Covid. I'm not on wind up but it's clearly too complex of an issue for some.

s1ippy · 03-09-2020 12:53PM

Locotastic wrote: »

So NPHET should make guidelines across the board for a huge number of people

They've done this many times, rightfully or wrong. This would be of benefit to the group at risk (older people).

so that people like your parents can avoid an honest and legitimate conversation about their concerns?

Your "honest and legitimate conversation" is to many a huge cause for argument where parents are having to stand their ground and tell their children that much and all as they'd love to see their grandchildren every day, they're concerned about their health. Cue the "hysterical" posters from here. It's a contentious issue, people are under pressure and it is likely to get heated in situations where people feel like grandparents are just in some sort of dereliction of their duties.

Or God forbid working parents might have to source alternative childcare if grandparents aren't comfortable?

That is literally what I'm suggesting that they recommend.

Waiting for guidelines to avoid family conflicts.

Again, you say that as if I'm at fault because there will inevitably be conflict over this when the guidelines are patchy. People take advantage of others. An acquaintance of mine told me in a very cavalier fashion yesterday that her 70 year old cancer suffering mother is bringing and collecting their child from school and babysitting until she gets in from work. That shouldn't be happening.

JDD · 03-09-2020 12:55PM

Boggles wrote: »

What do you think the positivity rate might be in November?

I mean if Scotlands main focus was to keep schools open for just August when there is relatively little community spread of the virus then I suppose yeah it has been spectacular.

I realise it's early days. And I don't know enough about Scotland's rate of infection to predict where they will be in November.

However, the second week of August here our seven day average was 80 new infections a day, and now we are at a 7 day average of 100, a 20% increase in two weeks. If we stay on that trajectory we will have around 150 new cases a day at the end of September, and around 210 a day by the end of October.

If we have 117 infections in schoolgoing children by the end of September, - same as Scotland have experienced in their first month - that's an average of about four new infections a day. Applying the same trajectory we should have about 7 new infections a day by the end of October, and about 11 new infections a day by the end of November. That's 341 schoolgoing children testing positive for covid during November.

Hardly apocolyptic.

Now, of course the issue isn't schoolgoing children being infected. It is them passing the virus on to grandparents. I think, by Hallowe'en, we'll probably have something from NPHET recommending that grandparents do not provide regular childminding - but contact otherwise will be left up to them.

Gerry Hatrick · 03-09-2020 12:57PM

Boggles wrote: »

:pac:

Yes, they are more worried about the flu for which they have effective treatments and vaccines and not the novel virus that is exponentially more deadly and more infectious where virtually no one has immunity from.

Are you on a wind up?

If you have to ask i think you know the answer.

khalessi · 03-09-2020 01:02PM

JDD wrote: »

Now, of course the issue isn't schoolgoing children being infected. It is them passing the virus on to grandparents. I think, by Hallowe'en, we'll probably have something from NPHET recommending that grandparents do not provide regular childminding - but contact otherwise will be left up to them.

The possibility of children passing it on to adults including parents, grandparents and teachers or each other.

Boggles · 03-09-2020 01:05PM

meeeeh wrote: »

I'm not on wind up but it's clearly to complex of an issue for some.

They are fairly convinced Covid will spread more frequently given the environmental changes a winter brings, you are 19 times more likely to get it indoors then outside.

More people congregate indoors in winter than summer.

Respiratory and cardiovascular illness rise in the winter, Covid 19 is both.

So yes they are encouraging people to get vaccinated from the flu, but the idea that the flu will become the dominant illness or a worry on par with the novel virus which far more lethal and far more infectious is absolute nonsense.

They are saying it will be a bleak winter for lots of different reasons, but the main dominant one is Covid 19.

Locotastic · 03-09-2020 01:06PM

s1ippy wrote: »

People take advantage of others. An acquaintance of mine told me in a very cavalier fashion yesterday that her 70 year old cancer suffering mother is bringing and collecting their child from school and babysitting until she gets in from work. That shouldn't be happening.

No you're right, it should absolutely not be happening but that's for her mother to say and not NPHET.

This pandemic has shown a lot of people's true colours for sure. I've been surprised myself by people who I thought knew better.

meeeeh · 03-09-2020 01:16PM

Boggles wrote: »

So yes they are encouraging people to get vaccinated from the flu, but the idea that the flu will become the dominant illness or a worry on par with the novel virus which far more lethal and far more infectious is absolute nonsense.

Would you please quote where I said that?

I said it's in tandem and the quote you posted did point out that Covid on top of all other issues makes hard winter. But the quote you posted wasn't predictor of Covid numbers in November, it was about the bed capacity.

Boggles · 03-09-2020 01:18PM

JDD wrote: »

However, the second week of August here our seven day average was 80 new infections a day, and now we are at a 7 day average of 100, a 20% increase in two weeks. If we stay on that trajectory we will have around 150 new cases a day at the end of September, and around 210 a day by the end of October.

That is a very simplistic view which ignores several important variables, but I will play.

Health Service Executive CEO Paul Reid said 1,514 cases have been reported over the past 14 days, compared with 1,096 in the previous 14 days

That's a percentage increase of 38% not 20%.

02 - September 1514
16- September 2089
30 - September 2882 205 a day
14 - October 3977
28 - October 5488 392 a day

ginoginelli · 03-09-2020 01:19PM

Locotastic wrote: »

No you're right, it should absolutely not be happening but that's for her mother to say and not NPHET.

This pandemic has shown a lot of people's true colours for sure. I've been surprised myself by people who I thought knew better.

Completely disagree. NPHETs job entails making guidelines to protect the publics health.

Advising grandparents to be cautious seeing grandchildren at this time is exactly the type of information people need to know right now.

meeeeh · 03-09-2020 01:21PM

Boggles wrote: »

That is a very simplistic view which ignores several important variables, but I will play.

That's a percentage increase of 38% not 20%.

02 - September 1514
16- September 2089
30 - September 2882 205 a day
14 - October 3977
28 - October 5488 392 a day

That ignores the simple fact reproduction rate is around 1.2 at the moment or 20%.

03-09-2020 01:25PM

meeeeh wrote: »

That ignores the simple fact reproduction rate is around 1.2 at the moment or 20%.

It is in fact estimated currently to be about 1.1. Has gone from 1.8 to 1.1 over the course of a month

meeeeh · 03-09-2020 01:29PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It is in fact estimated currently to be about 1.1. Has gone from 1.8 to 1.1 over the course of a month

Yeah I should say it could be up to 1.2 according to RTE yesterday or day before. (Or it could be as low as 1.0). I'm one of those who go for more pessimistic option to be sure.

iamwhoiam · 03-09-2020 01:29PM

s1ippy wrote: »

They've done this many times, rightfully or wrong. This would be of benefit to the group at risk (older people).

Your "honest and legitimate conversation" is to many a huge cause for argument where parents are having to stand their ground and tell their children that much and all as they'd love to see their grandchildren every day, they're concerned about their health. Cue the "hysterical" posters from here. It's a contentious issue, people are under pressure and it is likely to get heated in situations where people feel like grandparents are just in some sort of dereliction of their duties.

That is literally what I'm suggesting that they recommend.

Again, you say that as if I'm at fault because there will inevitably be conflict over this when the guidelines are patchy. People take advantage of others. An acquaintance of mine told me in a very cavalier fashion yesterday that her 70 year old cancer suffering mother is bringing and collecting their child from school and babysitting until she gets in from work. That shouldn't be happening.

I would not stand in judgement on any one elses decisions .You dont know what conversation took place with her mother .Maybe the mother has a life limiting cancer and has made the decision that she would prefer to live her life and see her grandchildren than the alternative . It is is her decision to make in all fairness .

Boggles · 03-09-2020 01:31PM

meeeeh wrote: »

That ignores the simple fact reproduction rate is around 1.2 at the moment or 20%.

What's a more accurate figure?

Actual cases or the reproduction rate which is always quantified by the phrase "we are not sure".

Either way I was using the posters "formula".

meeeeh · 03-09-2020 01:34PM

Boggles wrote: »

What's a more accurate figure?

Actual cases or the reproduction rate which is always quantified by the phrase "we are not sure".

Yes why bother with calculating R when you can predict everything by looking at numbers for past weeks and moths. Seriously?

Anyway for the sake of Irish healthcare I'm glad you just produced the model how predict the growth of virus. How nobody thought of that before?

Boggles · 03-09-2020 01:45PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Yes why bother with calculating R when you can predict everything by looking at numbers for past weeks and moths. Seriously?

:pac:

How do you think they calculate the R number?

Again, read the post I was replying to and my reply.

03-09-2020 01:46PM

Boggles wrote: »

What's a more accurate figure?

Actual cases or the reproduction rate which is always quantified by the phrase "we are not sure".

Either way I was using the posters "formula".

Well given the r rate is decreasing and appears from all info I have seen to use the 5 day moving average as an input, using the 14 day increase to predict future trends appears to be very in accurate. For example the 14 day increase from July 26th to aug 9th was over 100%. Based on this we would expect to have a rolling average over 200 at the moment

Boggles · 03-09-2020 02:04PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Well given the r rate is decreasing and appears from all info I have seen to use the 5 day moving average as an input, using the 14 day increase to predict future trends appears to be very in accurate. For example the 14 day increase from July 26th to aug 9th was over 100%. Based on this we would expect to have a rolling average over 200 at the moment

When has the R rate produced by Nolan ever accurately reflected what was happening currently? It measures in the past and then guesses the present as well as the future.

Either way, I was using the users "formula" which I pointed out.

caveat emptor · 03-09-2020 02:06PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Scotland are ahead of us. Looking at what they are doing is akin to looking into the future.
It's that simple. They've already implemented restrictions in Glasgow in a bid to curtail the spread.
It should be at least considered rather than peddling out the "well we knew it was going to happen" now
whereas 2 weeks ago it was "there is no evidence"
In 4 weeks time it'll be "well children were going to get sick"

https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/1301442832457175045?s=20

meeeeh wrote: »

Do you actually have reliable news about that or just xy Twitter account because everything on twitter is true.

I actually wish people started posting proper links because quoting twitter without clear source is like quoting your own post three pages down. It's a breading ground for ignorance and stupidity. Come on surely nobody wants to be that stupid...

It's easy to google something and verify it.
It's easier to say "twitter is fake".
It's even easier still if someone else googles something for you!

1:
https://lmgtfy.com/?q=return+of+schools+now+causing+pressure+on+Covid+testing+centres

2:
https://lmgtfy.com/?q=Scottish+Gvmnt+%E2%80%9CNow+onsite+transmission+of+CV19+at+schools%E2%80%9D

3:
https://lmgtfy.com/?q=Glasgow+Council+%E2%80%9CWe+might+have+to+close+schools+again%E2%80%9D

4:
https://lmgtfy.com/?q=lancashire+council+Whitworth+School

People's laziness these days is quite staggering.

II'll let you try to verify if you think it's real or not but be warned you may end up on a bridge on the side of the road screaming fake news. Googling is a skill and verifying what's real is even more important.

https://twitter.com/BigPaulieDoyle/status/1299721330577862659?s=20

Boggles · 03-09-2020 02:06PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Gerry Killeen and Thomas Ryan keep coming out with claims that we should be following Scotland's zero Covid strategy. Scotland are almost identical to us yet I have not seen any journalist call them out on it. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/sep/03/uk-coronavirus-live-quarantine-portugal-covid-19-latest-news?page=with:block-5f50d1b08f08b8a6c6697d49#block-5f50d1b08f08b8a6c6697d49

No they aren't, they are performing 163,000 tests a week with .49% positivity rate.

We are performing 61,000 tests a week with a postivity rate of 1.2%.

caveat emptor · 03-09-2020 02:07PM

Boggles wrote: »

When has the R rate produced by Nolan ever accurately reflected what was happening currently? It measures in the past and then guesses the present as well as the future.

Either way, I was using the users "formula" which I pointed out.

R value is never accurate when there is an outbreak or super spreading event.
It's deemed an outlier. When it's close to 1, we are all doing great.

Jaded Walker · 03-09-2020 02:14PM

Here are some questions.

Is there any advice anywhere in the reopening of schools documents regarding high risk parents?
Is there anything in it anywhere about kids who have gone back to school meeting their grandparents?

And if this information isn't in it, why isn't it?

s1ippy · 03-09-2020 02:14PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

I would not stand in judgement on any one elses decisions .You dont know what conversation took place with her mother .Maybe the mother has a life limiting cancer and has made the decision that she would prefer to live her life and see her grandchildren than the alternative . It is is her decision to make in all fairness .

I personally wouldn't put my mother at risk of death for a bit of childcare but that's just me.

You can visit grandparents without risk, if you're babysitting then in their house then obviously the risk is hugely increased. How many grandparents are put in a position where they'll be accused of trying to wrangle their way out of some perceived responsibility they have to provide that actual service and save their children hundreds per day on childcare?

caveat emptor · 03-09-2020 02:18PM

Jaded Walker wrote: »

Here are some questions.

Is there any advice anywhere in the reopening of schools documents regarding high risk parents?
Is there anything in it anywhere about kids who have gone back to school meeting their grandparents?

And if this information isn't in it, why isn't it?

Good questions.

Same goes for advice regarding children who attend before/after school care. Lots of kids mixing with lots of other kids from different bubbles /pods, often travelling to / from school in the same vehicle.

That has serious bubble bursting potential.

vid36 · 03-09-2020 02:21PM

Two classes sent home following a confirmed case at a Kerry school.

s1ippy · 03-09-2020 02:23PM

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0903/1162903-nphet-meeting-virus-spreads/

Latest Kerry school buried down the end of this article. Clearly they're just four schools in now and have gotten bored with reporting the ones that are closing.

Blondini · 03-09-2020 02:23PM

vid36 wrote: »

Two classes sent home following a confirmed case at a Kerry school.

That's the first reported one in a secondary school.

caveat emptor · 03-09-2020 02:23PM

More on that lanchasire story that wasn't verified until someone googled then clicked on the first result.
You can never be too careful about fake news. Remember masks were. dangerous?
Spike caused by school outbreak confirmed by council.

A Whitworth school is at the centre of Rossendale's coronavirus outbreak that has seen its infection rate spike to become one of the worst in all of England.

Fresh data released on Tuesday evening (September 1) saw Rossendale rise up the Covid-19 infection rate table into the top five across England.
Rolling data for the seven days to Saturday, August 29, saw the borough experience 35 new cases of the virus,
giving it an infection rate of 49 new cases per 100,000 people. The last three days of the week of data saw 16, seven,
and eight new cases of the virus respectively.

In the week before, the rate stood at 12.6 with only nine cases across seven days.

Now, the leader of Rossendale Borough Council, Councillor Alyson Barnes, has confirmed to LancsLive that the increase is "largely related" to a number of new cases traced back to a Whitworth school.

https://www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/whitworth-school-centre-rossendales-coronavirus-18867752

PCros · 03-09-2020 02:24PM

Blondini wrote: »

That's the first reported one in a secondary school.

3 kids now in total though right?

How will schools be able to go back in September? (Continued)

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