COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

Capt'n Midnight · 25-08-2020 01:48AM

Thierry12 wrote: »

It's harmless to most of the population, thats a fact

Most cases have no symptoms

US has the same death rate as we do

160,000 vs our 1,800

They have nearly 100 times the population we do, it's a massive country

You do the math

The US has 328.2 million, here 4.9m. So 67 times.

And 67 times 1,800* is 120,600 not 160,000 and not 177,000

Are we testing more than the US is doing ?
Did we ramp up before the US ?

We ban guns here, even though in most other countries guns aren't the leading cause of death. But it's preventable.

*We are still below 1,800.

3xh · 25-08-2020 06:30AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1297711784044957699

If this is true, genuine and correct, that is massive.

Just think of the implications of such errors......

hmmm · 25-08-2020 08:50AM

Fifth vaccine deal for the EU - Moderna. I'd like to see Pfizer added to this list, but they (we) have made great deals.
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0824/1161031-eu-concludes-vaccine-supply-talks-with-moderna/

Sweet.Science · 25-08-2020 09:05AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1297711784044957699

Would make you wonder if people with no symptoms are actually positive at all

stevek93 · 25-08-2020 09:21AM

Tested Friday, still no results back. Seriously now?

hmmm · 25-08-2020 09:21AM

Africa to be declared "polio-free" after 95% of the population immunised. Will we be seeing similar headlines for Covid in 50 years time?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53887947

3xh · 25-08-2020 09:50AM

hmmm wrote: »

Africa to be declared "polio-free" after 95% of the population immunised. Will we be seeing similar headlines for Covid in 50 years time?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-53887947

What a deliberately timed news release.

Hector Savage · 25-08-2020 10:03AM

Are they trying to say it will take so long to eradicate covid ?

So what lockdowns for 50 years ?? !!!

Sure that will go well ...

Marhay70 · 25-08-2020 10:21AM

Unsettling news this morning of three people reinfected with Covid months after having been cleared. It suggests that a one off vaccine may not be the silver bullet but that it will probably be an annual or even bi annual affair.

tobefrank321 · 25-08-2020 10:29AM

Marhay70 wrote: »

Unsettling news this morning of three people reinfected with Covid months after having been cleared. It suggests that a one off vaccine may not be the silver bullet but that it will probably be an annual or even bi annual affair.

Not that unsettling in these cases.
They were originally infected by a more severe strain and recovered. They were then reinfected by a milder strain. It indicates a milder strain may be circulating and has become dominant which may be one reason why deaths are down. I'm taking the positives.
If it was the opposite, infected by a milder strain and then reinfected by a more lethal strain, it would be more worrying.

dominatinMC · 25-08-2020 10:30AM

Marhay70 wrote: »

Unsettling news this morning of three people reinfected with Covid months after having been cleared. It suggests that a one off vaccine may not be the silver bullet but that it will probably be an annual or even bi annual affair.

Early days but that report (the one I read referred to one person, not three) suggests that the antibody response declines over time. So promoting an antibody reaction/response via vaccination may not be the optimal solution. However, the Oxford vaccine generates both an antibody and a T-cell response - so maybe that will provide greater and longer-term immunity. Here's hoping anyway :pac:

Micky 32 · 25-08-2020 10:30AM

I see RTE reporting of the alledged reinfection case in Hong Kong :

“ The findings could have significant implications for the development of vaccines and what is known about natural immunity against Covid-19.”

I f******g hope not...

Micky 32 · 25-08-2020 10:33AM

Marhay70 wrote: »

It suggests that a one off vaccine may not be the silver bullet but that it will probably be an annual or even bi annual affair.

I’d have no problem with that if it works.

Marhay70 · 25-08-2020 10:41AM

dominatinMC wrote: »

Early days but that report (the one I read referred to one person, not three) suggests that the antibody response declines over time. So promoting an antibody reaction/response via vaccination may not be the optimal solution. However, the Oxford vaccine generates both an antibody and a T-cell response - so maybe that will provide greater and longer-term immunity. Here's hoping anyway :pac:

Three reinfections, one each in Hong Kong, Belgium and Netherlands.
I would have thought that a natural recovery would be likely to invoke a T cell response as well but I stand to be corrected.
I'm not sure there's any evidence that they were infected with a milder strain of the virus, rather that one had milder symptoms than originally. No doubt more will emerge during the day. I won't be giving up hope yet anyway.

yosemitesam1 · 25-08-2020 10:44AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Not that unsettling in these cases.
They were originally infected by a more severe strain and recovered. They were then reinfected by a milder strain. It indicates a milder strain may be circulating and has become dominant which may be one reason why deaths are down. I'm taking the positives.
If it was the opposite, infected by a milder strain and then reinfected by a more lethal strain, it would be more worrying.

There is no reason to think that that's the case. Tiny differences being measured doesn't equal a new strain.

is_that_so · 25-08-2020 10:45AM

stevek93 wrote: »

Tested Friday, still no results back. Seriously now?

Call them!

Supercell · 25-08-2020 10:50AM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I see RTE reporting of the alledged reinfection case in Hong Kong :

“ The findings could have significant implications for the development of vaccines and what is known about natural immunity against Covid-19.”

I f******g hope not...

Misleading reporting by RTE.
This was actually a good news story, the patient was infected by a different strain and was asymptomatic the second time. The researchers found much greater levels of antibodies in his bloodstream the second time indicating a more robust immune response. This is exactly what we would hope to see. Not good news from the anti-vaxxer lunatic fringe as second timers I guess may therefore be infectious, a second time.

stephenjmcd · 25-08-2020 10:51AM

Marhay70 wrote: »

Unsettling news this morning of three people reinfected with Covid months after having been cleared. It suggests that a one off vaccine may not be the silver bullet but that it will probably be an annual or even bi annual affair.

well that always looked like being the case that eventually it would become a yearly vaccine.

Wouldn't exactly call it unsettling news and a vaccine never was the sliver bullet as has been said many times.

Doesn't really change anything in terms of development. Oxford suggested their vaccine would prevent impacts on the lungs but that you might feel like you've a headcold.

I think some people think a vaccine will get rid of covid, it won't at the moment anyway

Hector Savage · 25-08-2020 10:52AM

Marhay70 wrote: »

Unsettling news this morning of three people reinfected with Covid months after having been cleared. It suggests that a one off vaccine may not be the silver bullet but that it will probably be an annual or even bi annual affair.

They've been beating that drum for months now, reinfection is possible/isn't possible , next week it won't be possible again.

Sick of the fear mongering media , how about the permanent brain/heart/lung damage stuff too ...

That should be given a jolt soon

dominatinMC · 25-08-2020 10:54AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

well that always looked like being the case that eventually it would become a yearly vaccine.

Wouldn't exactly call it unsettling news and a vaccine never was the sliver bullet as has been said many times.

Is it not considered the only way to return to normal? I realise that the virus will never be eradicated, but without a vaccine we are doomed to endless cycles of lockdowns and social distancing? In that regard, it could be considered a "silver bullet"..

stephenjmcd · 25-08-2020 10:58AM

dominatinMC wrote: »

Is it not considered the only way to return to normal? I realise that the virus will never be eradicated, but without a vaccine we are doomed to endless cycles of lockdowns and social distancing? In that regard, it could be considered a "silver bullet"..

Sliver bullet I mean in terms of eradication, in that sense its not the silver bullet.

Its a means to return to normal of course, any vaccine that limits its impact to for example feeling like you've a headcold would do that job. Initial data from Oxford was that the lungs are protected.

We'll hopefully get more data in the next few weeks.

tobefrank321 · 25-08-2020 11:00AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

well that always looked like being the case that eventually it would become a yearly vaccine.

Wouldn't exactly call it unsettling news and a vaccine never was the sliver bullet as has been said many times.

Doesn't really change anything in terms of development. Oxford suggested their vaccine would prevent impacts on the lungs but that you might feel like you've a headcold.

I think some people think a vaccine will get rid of covid, it won't at the moment anyway

The vaccines have a long way to go yet. Not sure they've begun challenge trials. The other trials in the community would be of limited value and could take 2 years for proper results.
Even with challenge trials, they'd need thousands of volunteers, and most importantly, those in the weaker immune category.

stephenjmcd · 25-08-2020 11:02AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The vaccines have a long way to go yet. Not sure they've begun challenge trials. The other trials in the community would be of limited value and could take 2 years for proper results.
Even with challenge trials, they'd need thousands of volunteers, and most importantly, those in the weak immune category.

Challenge trials have ethical issues, I'm not sure Oxford are going down that route, I'm open to correction on that though.

Oxford is in phase 3 in different parts of the world in large numbers.

yosemitesam1 · 25-08-2020 11:06AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Sliver bullet I mean in terms of eradication, in that sense its not the silver bullet.

Its a means to return to normal of course, any vaccine that limits its impact to for example feeling like you've a headcold would do that job. Initial data from Oxford was that the lungs are protected.

We'll hopefully get more data in the next few weeks.

Any vaccines will have to show that they will be effective on the very old at risk groups. Otherwise there is very little point of them, vaccinating young healthy people likely won't stop it circulating

Gael23 · 25-08-2020 11:11AM

Marhay70 wrote: »

Unsettling news this morning of three people reinfected with Covid months after having been cleared. It suggests that a one off vaccine may not be the silver bullet but that it will probably be an annual or even bi annual affair.

No big deal. You need the flu vaccine every year

Marhay70 · 25-08-2020 11:14AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

They've been beating that drum for months now, reinfection is possible/isn't possible , next week it won't be possible again.

Sick of the fear mongering media , how about the permanent brain/heart/lung damage stuff too ...

That should be given a jolt soon

Not sure that the reference to brain/lung/heart damage was solely a media invention. I've heard eminent scientists and doctors state the same thing.

Marhay70 · 25-08-2020 11:16AM

Gael23 wrote: »

No big deal. You need the flu vaccine every year

Not suggesting it's a big deal but the hope for the vaccine was that it would be a long term remedy.

tobefrank321 · 25-08-2020 11:24AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Challenge trials have ethical issues, I'm not sure Oxford are going down that route, I'm open to correction on that though.

Oxford is in phase 3 in different parts of the world in large numbers.

I think in South Africa and Brazil with tens of thousands participating.

They will likely vaccinate half and give the other half a placebo.

But vaccinating 10,000 for example doesn't mean those 10,000 will become infected. Maybe less than 1000 might be infected. And then they might be 1000 healthy people who would have had no serious side effects from covid 19 anyways. And which 1000 do you compare them with from the placebo group? And other factors to consider such as viral load or genetics, or comorbidities.

Waiting for enough people to be infected and then analysing the results could be time consuming, which is why challenge trials will speed things up. I believe Oxford or Imperial College London are planning some challenge trials.

hmmm · 25-08-2020 11:36AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The vaccines have a long way to go yet. Not sure they've begun challenge trials. The other trials in the community would be of limited value and could take 2 years for proper results.
Even with challenge trials, they'd need thousands of volunteers, and most importantly, those in the weaker immune category.

The challenge trials that were being proposed would only need a small group of people, ideally healthy young people and the use of a specially weakened form of the virus. It wouldn't be ethical to test weaker people in challenge trials - you'd need a separate safety study for them. We can forget too that the purpose of herd immunity is that the healthy people who take the vaccine end up protecting the weaker people who maybe can't take the vaccine because of the ring of protection which is provided.

There was a lot of talk about challenge trials a month ago, but it seems to have gone quiet again. It's my optimistic side talking, but I take that as a hopeful sign that they may be seeing good vaccine efficiency in the trials - Trump coming out and talking about accelerated approval also makes me suspicious that the trials may be going well. It's all supposed to be blind testing, but people talk.

The FDA wanted 50% efficacy in a vaccine as a minimum, but the hope is for much higher. If the vaccines were highly effective, the results would be obvious much quicker than if they had lower efficacy.

Deeper Blue · 25-08-2020 11:41AM

Of course rte would put the most negative spin possible on that story to terrify people even further.

They are a disgrace.

COVID-19: Vaccine/antidote and testing procedures Megathread [Mod Warning - Post #1]

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