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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

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    #572
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,711 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Bear in mind that Met E issue their warnings on the basis of evaluating potential impact and risk.

    We are still in full swing holiday time so there are lots of tourists in places they are not familiar with. People are camping and in caravans/mobile homes.

    In addition, trees are in full leaf and the storm coincides with high (spring) tide, so there is high risk of coastal flooding.

    Maybe in mid Winter this storm might have a yellow warning for most with a number of counties with orange warning as impact/risk would be less.


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    #573
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    The lack of windspeeds in the warnings is indicative they are impact based warnings.


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    #574
    irishrover99
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭irishrover99


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    TAF's aren't generally the best indicator, I've seen them be wrong many many times.

    I’ve seen them being wrong too, usually on air crash investigation.


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    #575
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    From my point of view there was no real eastward trend, the models most trusted by met E happened to be those with the furthest west tracks. Also a slight shift east is not a downgrade except in the limited sense that places now to the west of the developing track will have a downgrade in their peak gusts. They will on the other hand get more rain than might have been predicted previously.

    Take this very seriously indeed if you live or are situated between Cork and Wexford and all the way inland up to east Galway, Sligo, Roscommon.


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    #576
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    The lack of windspeeds in the warnings is indicative they are impact based warnings.

    Yeah it’s unusual no speeds mentioned at all.


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    #577
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,641 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Vessels at seas don't seem to have cleared out of the path like in other storms.
    Is this an indication of the expected severity and sea area forecasts are not predicting anything dangerous?
    Some of those are small fishing boats drawing 3m.


    wu870ql.png


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    #578
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    From my point of view there was no real eastward trend, the models most trusted by met E happened to be those with the furthest west tracks. Also a slight shift east is not a downgrade except in the limited sense that places now to the west of the developing track will have a downgrade in their peak gusts. They will on the other hand get more rain than might have been predicted previously.

    Take this very seriously indeed if you live or are situated between Cork and Wexford and all the way inland up to east Galway, Sligo, Roscommon.

    When you say cork do you mean cork city or county? I presume county!


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    #579
    SomethingElse
    Registered Users Posts: 1,534 ✭✭✭SomethingElse


    grinder23 wrote: »
    Hi Guys haven't a clue about any of this but I never see Longford mentioned lol anyone any idea what we could expect?

    Expect a risk of everything you own being lifted overnight. Don't expect any winds though.


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    #580
    John Hutton
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,301 ✭✭✭John Hutton


    Friend of mine camping in a tent on Achill island tonight - this is madness yes? Or am I overreacting?


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    #581
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Hard rain now, borne in on a rising breeze. ie a baby gale!

    The sky is a uniform grey; lying low in almost every direction. No mountains. Just grey cloud. Flat above a flat grey ocean. The air is stifling. Grey.

    And heavier rain. Is it beginning? Love the sound of it.

    Stay safe.

    PS If I fall asleep I will miss the storm however bad it is. A giftedness since childhood...


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    #582
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,711 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Mod Note: No more general debate in relation to warnings in this thread please.

    I will start moving posts here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057918791


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    #583
    Shadylou
    Registered Users Posts: 252 ✭✭Shadylou


    What has been downgraded, everything still seems to be the same on the met.ie website????


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    #584
    Seamai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭Seamai


    Two hours to 9pm and was just out to put the patio furniture in the shed, just a slight drizzle.
    I'm looking out and it's absolutely calm, not the slightest bit of movement, almost eerie.


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    #585
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,117 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Rapidly deepening

    022-F977-C-A70-C-44-E2-BA51-CADEBA715-F8-A.jpg


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    #586
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Wind has died down again in West Cork along with the rain going off again, calm before the storm v2 :p


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    #587
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Rapidly deepening

    022-F977-C-A70-C-44-E2-BA51-CADEBA715-F8-A.jpg


    christ it looks like a savage day across iberia,how i wish i were there,in that blinding UV light and blue azure skies ,wading into calm warm water,among attractive tanned people with a beer in my hand.

    i remeber speaking to my peruvean friend in Barcelona back in february and he felt a bit down because it was rainy and chilly for a few days,they dont know theyre alive.Hed have to be drugged to the eyeballs living here.



    2020 is pure pigmuck.

    September might be beautiful ,who knows.Lets hope so.


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    #588
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    12Z ECM out. Upgrades now all but certain for the SE and probably the midlands.
    6a0065d0811dc949d8de9cf8d5e24fcb.png
    4efbcc7e98813ab30a7d7b8b288a708a.png


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    #589
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    sdanseo wrote: »
    12Z ECM out. Upgrades now all but certain for the SE.
    6a0065d0811dc949d8de9cf8d5e24fcb.png

    Cork still red?


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    #590
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,109 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Strangely calm in West Clare this evening, a breeze starting to pick up now, have gone for a walk as rain seems imminent.


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    #591
    irishgeo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,370 ✭✭✭irishgeo


    John Hutton wrote: »
    Friend of mine camping in a tent on Achill island tonight - this is madness yes? Or am I overreacting?

    think it may dodge this one, depends on what part of the island he is. some areas sheltered from a SE wind.


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    #592
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    If we don't have any forum members already in Dungarvan to Youghal especially near the coast there, perhaps somebody with a vehicle within 2 hours drive might like to do a live on the spot report as landfall seems most likely to be close to 9:30-10:00 p.m. on current developments.

    Wherever the low crosses the coast, about 30 miles east of there would be the maximum wind and storm surge impact zone. I would imagine there's some seaside caravan parks in that general area, those should probably be toured by local police and visitors warned to take shelter (perhaps this is already happening).

    If we do have current thread readers in that impact zone, could you let us know where you are situated and give us hourly or more frequent updates starting around 8 p.m. TIA.


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    #593
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,642 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    While the west and parts of north west will most likely escape the worst of this storm, those areas could see a brief period of fairly strong winds later on Thursday after Storm Ellen is gone. So those dismissing taking precautions as pointless might want to reconsider that kind of thinking.


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    #594
    hurikane
    Registered Users Posts: 688 ✭✭✭hurikane


    markjbloggs wrote: »
    If these trends continue, this should be hugely embarrassing for Met Eireann. Not the first time they have cried wolf in recent years of course but the impact of their warning on struggling tourism businesses should leave them open to some very difficult questions

    You reckon we’ll need a tribunal?


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    #595
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    leahyl wrote: »
    Cork still red?

    East of the city, by that map, very much so.

    My opinion - Waterford will go red, Wexford and most of the midlands will go Orange.


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    #596
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    leahyl wrote: »
    Cork still red?

    East Cork is anyway.

    The distances are so small it really is a nowcast at this stage. They get hurricanes wrong in USA right up to the last minute.


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    #597
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,824 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    For the record.

    dsiHAJj.gif


    MYB2XeX.gif


    6sxuV7D.gif

    GPY5U7p.png


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    #598
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    Interestingly, the 'ICON Flash' has stronger winds for the south tomorrow evening than at any time overnight (gust speed forecast for 7pm tomorrow)

    ntBb4xZ.png

    New Moon



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    #599
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Not even a breeze here in Cork city and very warm, just waiting for it to kick off ,as long as everyone stays safe I like a good storm , a mix of excitement and fear atm.


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    #600
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    sdanseo wrote: »
    East of the city, by that map, very much so.

    My opinion - Waterford will go red, Wexford and most of the midlands will go Orange.

    Ah right, always seems to miss the city where I am :-( guess I should be grateful!


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    #601
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Looks like the coasts could still get 100-110kmh gusts which are no joke at the same time, definitely don't untie your stuff anyway


This discussion has been closed.
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