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Storm Ellen - 19th/20th August 2020

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    #542
    FastFullBack
    Registered Users Posts: 1,454 ✭✭✭FastFullBack


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    Standing on a beach in West cork at the moment, tide is highest I have seen it in nearly two+ years. Nearly covering the entire beach.

    Which beach?


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    #543
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Oscar Bravo wrote: »
    Big downgrades on TAF's,Cork ,for example now going for max gust of 45 knots with 40 percent chance of 60 knots,way down from the 75 knots mentioned earlier.

    Ah jeez, another damp squib? Or is it unwise to go on just the one source?


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    #544
    froog
    Registered Users Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    ICON and GSF still showing a non event.


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    #545
    grinder23
    Registered Users Posts: 187 ✭✭grinder23


    Hi Guys haven't a clue about any of this but I never see Longford mentioned lol anyone any idea what we could expect?


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    #546
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,117 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Oscar Bravo wrote: »
    Big downgrades on TAF's,Cork ,for example now going for max gust of 45 knots with 40 percent chance of 60 knots,way down from the 75 knots mentioned earlier.

    The trend is there this evening for Cork to be taken out of the highest risk zone for wind.


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    #547
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,109 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    TAF's aren't generally the best indicator, I've seen them be wrong many many times.


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    #548
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    pad199207 wrote: »
    The trend is there this evening for Cork to be taken out of the highest risk zone for wind.

    Ah no don’t say that! I’m aware I sound like a complete nutter actually hoping for strong winds btw!


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    #549
    RobertKK
    Registered Users Posts: 33,729 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    The reason for the calm or light winds in west Cork and Kerry is that this storm has no cold air advection, it is moving along through the broader warm sector ahead of the more distant Atlantic low. Therefore as it approaches, wind potential from northeast is cancelled by the southwest flow around the more distant low. This calm phenomenon may be noted later up along the coast into Connacht for some period of time. Eventually even where the low passes to the east, strong southwest to west winds will develop around the circulation of Ellen. The centre is most likely to hit where winds stay moderate southerly. It will be very close to a direct hit on the Cobh/Cork metropolitan region but I suspect the actual location of landfall will be something like 20 miles east of there and west of Youghal. The only good thing about that for Cork might be that coastal flooding would be somewhat reduced as the storm surge will be higher to the east of the landfall. However I understand that the coastal flooding around Cork is mainly from runoff in the river Lee backed up by higher than normal tides so that part of the equation would still be operational if heavy rain was falling all through county Cork tonight.

    There will very likely be some scattered wind damage in exposed coastal and inland higher south-facing locations, this is why I suggested a wider extent of the red alert to include those exposed locations. Our forum member RobertKK is on a south-facing hill (I think I recall him saying) in Kilkenny, that sort of location could pick up higher gusts than most of the surrounding county.

    North, west and southwest facing hill.


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    #550
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    TAFS are a point forecast....obviously CORK Airport was in the bullseye on the HARMONIE earlier, that has changed or moved in the subsequent run. It doesn't mean somewhere 10 miles further east isnt expected to receive a wind of that level


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    #551
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,066 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    leahyl wrote: »
    Ah jeez, another damp squib? Or is it unwise to go on just the one source?

    I tend to go with the TAF's and of course looking at various models. Shall be interesting to see max gusts. Valentia ? Roaches point? Somewhere in that area


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    #552
    Sephiroth_dude
    Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 80,010 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sephiroth_dude


    leahyl wrote: »
    just now in Garretstown and it already looks pretty miserable down there tbh!

    Nothing new there so :pac: :pac:


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    #553
    EmmetSpiceland
    Registered Users Posts: 10,529 ✭✭✭✭EmmetSpiceland


    leahyl wrote: »
    Ah no don’t say that! I’m aware I sound like a complete nutter actually hoping for strong winds btw!

    Stick around, lots of “hot air” being blown in here!

    The tide is turning…



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    #554
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles




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    #555
    markjbloggs
    Registered Users Posts: 293 ✭✭markjbloggs


    If these trends continue, this should be hugely embarrassing for Met Eireann. Not the first time they have cried wolf in recent years of course but the impact of their warning on struggling tourism businesses should leave them open to some very difficult questions


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    #556
    endainoz
    Registered Users Posts: 4,726 ✭✭✭endainoz


    leahyl wrote: »
    Ah jeez, another damp squib? Or is it unwise to go on just the one source?

    froog wrote: »
    ICON and GSF still showing a non event.

    If your playing the boards.ie storm thread bingo be sure to mark off "damp squib" and "non event". Amazing it's being written off before it even starts.


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    #557
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    If Met Éireann are wrong whatever about cork what are galway and Mayo doing in the orange wind warnings?!


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    #558
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    endainoz wrote: »
    If your playing the boards.ie storm thread bingo be sure to mark off "damp squib" and "non event". Amazing it's being written off before it even starts.

    Not writing it off myself, I don’t have a clue, I’m only going on what regulars in here are saying.


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    #559
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    If Met Éireann are wrong whatever about cork what are galway and Mayo doing in the orange wind warnings?!
    I guess when it swings away to the north coastal parts will probably get gusts close to Orange level? Maybe tipping on 110kph

    This could yet wallop the east coast.....Dublin not out of the game yet.


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    #560
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,950 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    markjbloggs wrote: »
    If these trends continue, this should be hugely embarrassing for Met Eireann. Not the first time they have cried wolf in recent years of course but the impact of their warning on struggling tourism businesses should leave them open to some very difficult questions

    Then if someone is killed you'd probably be crying they didn't do enough.

    Met Éireann will never win.


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    #561
    Cw85
    Registered Users Posts: 238 ✭✭Cw85


    The weather forecast on RTE seems to be that Cork is red, a few counties on the west coast are orange and the rest of the country yellow. The social media build up had this as a huge event which just shows that stick to Met Eireann and the facts.


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    #562
    Whehey!
    Registered Users Posts: 37 ✭Whehey!


    markjbloggs wrote: »
    If these trends continue, this should be hugely embarrassing for Met Eireann. Not the first time they have cried wolf in recent years of course but the impact of their warning on struggling tourism businesses should leave them open to some very difficult questions

    Hardly hugely embarrassing now like. And what very difficult questions? Theres plenty of campers in these areas, I'd gladly prefer to pack up my tent for the night as a precaution than be blown up the country like Mary Poppins. If it's a non event so be it, but they have possibly saved a few lives maybe in the process.


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    #563
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,140 ✭✭✭highdef


    Oscar Bravo wrote: »
    Big downgrades on TAF's,Cork ,for example now going for max gust of 45 knots with 40 percent chance of 60 knots,way down from the 75 knots mentioned earlier.

    Most likely because the eye is now forecast to pass over very close to Cork airport or just to the east of it. Winds are to be stronger to the east of the eye so that would explain the downgrade in this one particular location, I would imagine.


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    #564
    squarecircles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭squarecircles


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    If Met Éireann are wrong whatever about cork what are galway and Mayo doing in the orange wind warnings?!


    its hilarious when you read the met eireann regional forecast for connaught and compare it to MT's mentioning some heavy rain a brief spells of some gusty winds along the coast.


    spent the day securing everything.well that was pointless.


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    #565
    token56
    Registered Users Posts: 2,601 ✭✭✭token56


    markjbloggs wrote: »
    If these trends continue, this should be hugely embarrassing for Met Eireann. Not the first time they have cried wolf in recent years of course but the impact of their warning on struggling tourism businesses should leave them open to some very difficult questions

    I don't understand what people are expecting Met Eireann to do. They are making the most informed judgement at a point in time with the information they have there and then, b . Everyone can see how quickly this event has progressed, if it turns out to be a non event, great less significant damage and less risk of people loosing their lives.


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    #566
    CruelSummer
    Registered Users Posts: 2,225 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    markjbloggs wrote: »
    If these trends continue, this should be hugely embarrassing for Met Eireann. Not the first time they have cried wolf in recent years of course but the impact of their warning on struggling tourism businesses should leave them open to some very difficult questions

    Been following this thread with interest but this quote demonstrates just how ignorant some people are re the weather and it’s forecasts. Met Eireann are not fortune tellers, they’re using the best available models & forecasting accordingly with threats to safety and life at the forefront of their minds. If there’s a last minute downgrade, good. Less damage at the height of summer that Ireland can really do without right now.


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    #567
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    TAFS are a point forecast....obviously CORK Airport was in the bullseye on the HARMONIE earlier, that has changed or moved in the subsequent run. It doesn't mean somewhere 10 miles further east isnt expected to receive a wind of that level

    Exactly right and if there was an airport around Fermoy (Moorepark) or just south of there, they could have a TAF indicating peak gusts of 70 knots.

    The peak wind gust on land at weather stations may be at Roches Point around 77 knots or around 140-150 km/hr. Some place along the coast east of there might hit 160-170 km/hr briefly, Waterford a little uncertain but 120-140 km/hr possible, mickger844posts get ready you may have a new station record.

    Johnstown Castle could even hit 100 at this rate (not known for being well exposed there) meaning about 130 on exposed Wexford coasts.

    Will be interesting to see how Moorepark and Gurteen do with wind gusts as the core moves inland. Will predict peaks around 55 knots for them. That could mean some better exposed locations (and around Lough Derg) could hit 60-65 knot gusts.

    There will be trees down here and there in that general area even into eastern Galway, whether it's a moderate impact or major remains to be seen.

    Needless to say I would stay off the roads tonight in most areas, after dark you can't see road obstructions until you're too close to stop.

    As to ICON not picking this up, unfathomable really, the main meteorological detail of interest to me is that upper level conditions change very rapidly around the time Ellen approaches the south coast, a signature for explosive development potential. That upper level low that has been out to the west of Ireland for days is scheduled to reposition in a capture position leading to a rapid phase of Ellen into the larger circulation. Ellen then effectively becomes the main centre with the former main centre rotating around it from the southwest. That could then deepen when Ellen loses steam and lead to a second round of wind warnings this time for the west coast later Thursday.


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    #568
    jackboy
    Registered Users Posts: 4,461 ✭✭✭jackboy


    squarecircles wrote: »
    its hilarious when you read the met eireann regional forecast for connaught and compare it to MT's mentioning some heavy rain a brief spells of some gusty winds along the coast.


    spent the day securing everything.well that was pointless.

    It’s not over yet.

    Actually, it’s not started yet.


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    #569
    screamer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,132 ✭✭✭screamer


    ChikiChiki wrote: »
    Then if someone is killed you'd probably be crying they didn't do enough.

    Met Éireann will never win.

    It’s not their job to win....... with every alert issued they either gain the public’s trust or lose it.
    Lately, with the calls they’ve made, they’ve lost a lot of trust and so when they call the next event, people don’t believe it and so they don’t heed the warnings, which can lead to awful consequences.
    In any event, high up here on the north Kilkenny/ Laois border I’ve been putting away all the outdoor toys, moving and securing the trampoline and making sure the gullies are clear. Who knows what will come, maybe nothing, maybe a huge storm.....


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    #570
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,336 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    squarecircles wrote: »
    its hilarious when you read the met eireann regional forecast for connaught and compare it to MT's mentioning some heavy rain a brief spells of some gusty winds along the coast.


    spent the day securing everything.well that was pointless.

    Our expectations may not be that different, you may not regret taking those precautions. Some places in Mayo could see gusts above 60 knots briefly, especially if the centre curved a little further west and emerged there instead of heading for Donegal Bay.


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    #571
    HeyV
    Registered Users Posts: 251 ✭✭HeyV


    Charging my phone and tablet, should the electricity go later... got caught out before with that :(


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