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Woman and girl found alive after 15 hours in sea off coast

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    #62
    whisky_galore
    Registered Users Posts: 15,787 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    They won't do that again.


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    #63
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,814 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    whisky_galore wrote: »
    They won't do that again.

    could happen many, never underestimate nature


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    #64
    listermint
    Registered Users Posts: 33,666 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    This is one of the reasons i take sea safety quite seriously. Have a canoe and whenever im in it, its wet suit, life jacket and even bring a wet bag and stuff phone into it with some supplies.

    Have been looking into buying a SW Radio too. Theyre very inexpensive. I wont go into the sea at all without considering how powerful it is. You literally can do nothing to prevent some things so its best be prepped to contact people and or let them know when youll be back.


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    #65
    whisky_galore
    Registered Users Posts: 15,787 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    could happen many, never underestimate nature

    It's great to play in the sea, too often people forget it can turn on you too.


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    #66
    Psychiatric Patrick
    Registered Users Posts: 974 ✭✭✭Psychiatric Patrick


    whisky_galore wrote: »
    It's great to play in the sea, too often people forget it can turn on you too.

    Sailors refer to the sea in the feminine, don't they?


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    #67
    TwoWheeledTim
    Closed Accounts Posts: 160 ✭✭TwoWheeledTim


    I wonder when will we get to the point we can press a button and a fleet of drones will fly across the bay, photograph the surface and feed into an updated stitched image like Google maps satelite view. Then process the image to identify objects or initially simply crowd source it, let hundreds of people each review a small area.

    It should he possible soon. Earlier the same night Oranmore Civil Defence deployed a drone inland with heat sensors to help find a 15 year old that had gone missing after midnight.
    whisky_galore wrote: »
    They won't do that again.

    Any new paddle board listings on Adverts today yet?!


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    #68
    fits
    Registered Users Posts: 13,261 ✭✭✭✭fits


    TwoWheeledTim wrote: »
    I wonder when will we get to the point we can press a button and a fleet of drones will fly across the bay, photograph the surface and feed into an updated stitched image like Google maps satelite view. Then process the image to identify objects or initially simply crowd source it, let hundreds of people each review a small area.

    It should he possible soon. Earlier the same night Oranmore Civil Defence deployed a drone inland with heat sensors to help find a 15 year old that had gone missing after midnight.



    Any new paddle board listings on Adverts today yet?!

    Genuine question, can regular drones cope with Atlantic sea wind?


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    #69
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users Posts: 81,275 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    M


    Psychiatric Patrick wrote: »
    Sailors refer to the sea in the feminine, don't they?

    They also refer to boats as feminine :D

    22a84481f610f8abef0bea3be34ff744.jpg


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    #70
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    owlbethere wrote: »
    It was dry on land where I'm from in Connemara. That was at midnight the night before last, so Wednesday night. It was dry at 1am in the morning too. I don't know if it was raining out at sea though.

    Relative who was on the Lifeboat said it was dry up to midnight but foggy, after that the rain came and by 3am it was very bad in the Bay the wind had also risen and then the Thunder and Lightning came which lasted for around an hour. Its always a different situation on sea and land in bad weather


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    #71
    NIMAN
    Registered Users Posts: 33,053 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    one of them on RTE1 now


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    #72
    riffmongous
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,629 Mod ✭✭✭✭riffmongous


    CrankyHaus wrote: »
    A model is only as good as the information that goes into it.
    I'm not sure if there are computerised current and tidal models of Irish coastal waters as detailed and nuanced as the knowledge of a fisherman with decades of experience of his waters, who in turn would base his knowledge on that of older fishermen. No doubt eventually there may be, but who knows when?

    Same as intuition though, you change the base conditions or go to more complicated weather situations, longer time periods and your intuition will break down. Anyway i was just responding to a point that said "no model" can compete with intuition.

    I don't know if some people think I'm trying to take away from the fisherman, I'm definitely not. My original question was asked if the coastguard have anything they can use because I volunteer at an emergency response unit for chemical accidents and I know the different levels of models there are for first response and more advanced modelling, and if the coastguard have the capability to use anything similar for predicting currents


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    #73
    fits
    Registered Users Posts: 13,261 ✭✭✭✭fits


    riffmongous wrote: »
    Same as intuition though, you change the base conditions or go to more complicated weather situations, longer time periods and your intuition will break down. Anyway i was just responding to a point that said "no model" can compete with intuition.

    *Intuition and experience*
    If you or I went out there our intuition would be useless.

    Also hard to have a model up and running in minutes that will accurately replicate the conditions of the time. Modelling sounds easy but takes considerable data and expertise to set up and interpret and its still a simplification of reality when it comes down to it.


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    #74
    CrankyHaus
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,281 ✭✭✭CrankyHaus


    riffmongous wrote: »
    Same as intuition though, you change the base conditions or go to more complicated weather situations, longer time periods and your intuition will break down. Anyway i was just responding to a point that said "no model" can compete with intuition.

    I don't know if some people think I'm trying to take away from the fisherman, I'm definitely not. My original question was asked if the coastguard have anything they can use because I volunteer at an emergency response unit for chemical accidents and I know the different levels of models there are for first response and more advanced modelling, and if the coastguard have the capability to use anything similar for predicting currents


    No idea. But the Coast Guard's own recent experiences do highlight the problem with models only being as good as the information fed in. Personally I'd be chary about entirely trusting any computer model with my life unless I had confidence in the source of its raw data.



    The fishermen weren't going on intuition (knowledge obtained without recourse to conscious reasoning) either. They calculated an Estimated Position based on various factors, chiefly wind speed and direction, with reference to their own experience of the waters. That's a large part of how navigation used to be performed, and is still taught. The fact that they were dead right endorses their reasoning.


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    #75
    NUTLEY BOY
    Registered Users Posts: 2,344 ✭✭✭NUTLEY BOY


    This definitely qualifies as "escape of the year 2020" given that it could so easily have been a desperate tragedy if one or two variable factors had gone against the casualties.

    My initial reaction was one of great relief for all concerned :).


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    #76
    beardybrewer
    Registered Users Posts: 2,917 ✭✭✭beardybrewer


    Here is the full account from 17yo Ellen Glynn:

    https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0814/1159153-galway-rescue


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    #77
    Mysterypunter
    Registered Users Posts: 2,806 ✭✭✭Mysterypunter


    Delighted they were rescued, they were needing a near miracle and it arrived in the shape of the fisherman, fair play to him.


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    #78
    Doctors room ghost
    Registered Users Posts: 4,803 ✭✭✭Doctors room ghost


    Mysterypunter wrote: »
    Delighted they were rescued, they were needing a near miracle and it arrived in the shape of the fisherman, fair play to him.





    The fisherman was interviewed this morning along with one of the girls father on the keith finnegan show on Galway bay fm.theres probably a pod cast on the Galway bay app for anyone interested.
    They were first on the show so easy to find


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    #79
    FixdePitchmark
    Registered Users Posts: 20,801 ✭✭✭✭FixdePitchmark


    listermint wrote: »
    This is one of the reasons i take sea safety quite seriously. Have a canoe and whenever im in it, its wet suit, life jacket and even bring a wet bag and stuff phone into it with some supplies.

    Have been looking into buying a SW Radio too. Theyre very inexpensive. I wont go into the sea at all without considering how powerful it is. You literally can do nothing to prevent some things so its best be prepped to contact people and or let them know when youll be back.

    I'm sorry if this is harsh - but this is it for me.

    They were in the Atlantic Ocean - one seemed very very inexperienced.


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    #80
    TwoWheeledTim
    Closed Accounts Posts: 160 ✭✭TwoWheeledTim


    fits wrote: »
    Genuine question, can regular drones cope with Atlantic sea wind?

    I'm no expert on drones but I'd imagine many would handle the winds we had this week, but probably not a storm. High end consumer drones seem to handle moderate wind quite well, I assume the commercial drones can do even better with more power.


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    #81
    whisky_galore
    Registered Users Posts: 15,787 ✭✭✭✭whisky_galore


    FixdePitchmark wrote: »
    I'm sorry if this is harsh - but this is it for me.

    They were in the Atlantic Ocean - one seemed very very inexperienced.

    With paddleboards, not much better than toys.


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    #82
    thebackbar
    Registered Users Posts: 462 ✭✭thebackbar


    TwoWheeledTim wrote: »
    I wonder when will we get to the point we can press a button and a fleet of drones will fly across the bay, photograph the surface and feed into an updated stitched image like Google maps satelite view. Then process the image to identify objects or initially simply crowd source it, let hundreds of people each review a small area.

    It should he possible soon. Earlier the same night Oranmore Civil Defence deployed a drone inland with heat sensors to help find a 15 year old that had gone missing after midnight.



    Any new paddle board listings on Adverts today yet?!


    Good idea but that technology seems a couple of years away.

    However you would wonder if technology could be used to help in searches like this, the RNLI sea search seemed to be very well organised. However the on foot search of the coast line yesterday seemed a bit haphazard. Surely technology could be used for

    * registering who was available to search in order to create groups
    * to record what areas were being searched, and had been searched.
    * communicating with search groups

    Ideally there should be a group that could coordinate these efforts, who have past experience of doing so.


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    #83
    downwesht
    Registered Users Posts: 526 ✭✭✭downwesht


    Delighted all safe and sound but I think that the rescue services should have a full and thorough investigation into their failure to locate the girls.Galway Bay isn't that big.......the wind was from one direction,the tide the same surely the heat seeking device on the helicopter could have picked them out....from a predicted search area.They were a big enough target on two boards,they weren't "heads in the water"......Major failure in my opinion......


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    #84
    ShamNNspace
    Registered Users Posts: 4,658 ✭✭✭ShamNNspace


    Also there was a meeting at 9.30am to organise a search party, would have thought it would have been much earlier


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    #85
    hamburgham
    Registered Users Posts: 1,014 ✭✭✭hamburgham


    whisky_galore wrote: »
    With paddleboards, not much better than toys.


    And one of the mother's watching.


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    #86
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    downwesht wrote: »
    Delighted all safe and sound but I think that the rescue services should have a full and thorough investigation into their failure to locate the girls.Galway Bay isn't that big.......the wind was from one direction,the tide the same surely the heat seeking device on the helicopter could have picked them out....from a predicted search area.They were a big enough target on two boards,they weren't "heads in the water"......Major failure in my opinion......

    Were you out there, I said it already they could not use their heat seeking due to the torrential rain it does not work in rain, there was low cloud thunder and lightning they were flying in terrible conditions, Galway Bay is full of currents they have to start out from the point of departure then spread it out as they search, its easy put words together from a key board


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    #87
    machiavellianme
    Registered Users Posts: 12,414 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    fits wrote: »
    No model can replicate the intuition that comes from years of experience.

    We might as well give up on machine learning and AI so. Apparently no model will ever replace our gut feel and inclination, no matter how small the defined problem set is.


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    #88
    NIMAN
    Registered Users Posts: 33,053 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    The girl interviewed on RTE this morning gave the impression that they weren't really panicked or scared.


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    #89
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    One other thing they were getting calls from the public saying they thought they may be here there and everywhere, they had to go to these areas and check them out all time consuming, the important thing is they were found so lets all be grateful for that and for all involved .


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    #90
    fits
    Registered Users Posts: 13,261 ✭✭✭✭fits


    machiavellianme wrote: »
    We might as well give up on machine learning and AI so. Apparently no model will ever replace our gut feel and inclination, no matter how small the defined problem set is.

    Yes yes we should give up on all types of modelling and machine learning forever just because getting an accurate model Up and running showing how two paddle boarders could drift from a certain location given certain currents and wind conditions and their own behaviour in a timely manner is a little more difficult than most non modellers can understand.


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    #91
    Wombatman
    Registered Users Posts: 3,337 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    fits wrote: »
    No they can’t. Models always are a simplification Of real conditions.
    Models are useful In many instances alright. It depends on situation. However in this one experience and intuition won out.

    A model of Galway Bay already exists. It performs very well is search and rescue situations, which unfortunately usually involves recovering the bodies of suicide victims.

    https://www.bodc.ac.uk/resources/inventories/edmed/report/6519/


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