Browney7 wrote: » I would have thought it would have been much worse. Lockdown was what, end of March? Any mortgages being drawn down in june to transact are sales negotiated probably from March. Considering we were shut down for 2 months it looks high. It's also consistent with the level of total sales in June 20 Vs June 19 (PPR raw data) so it's not the case that cash sales have fallen off a cliff either. I'm in the camp of forecasting 5-10% falls just on the basis that the market was stagnant pre Covid let alone what it could look like in the short term once the post economic reopening flurry has died down.
Iceman29 wrote: » Yeah I didn't expect such a big number. 31% is huge and you're dead right about people with AIP bidding on houses. If I was buying a house I'd be putting a low ball offer and leave it there. Wouldn't get involved with a bidding war with someone who can't actually buy it. Something should be done about this type of bidding
Hubertj wrote: » Was there also a reduction in applications? Is the reduction in final approvals due to increased rejections or a smaller number of applications? Or due to a significantly reduced number of transactions compared to a year earlier? I would have thought I t would be a lot more than a 31% reduction given all that is going on.
PropQueries wrote: » Not sure if this is a good example, but asking prices in this estate in South Dublin are now back at the prices they sold for in 2014. This is the house on MyHome.ie: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/11-glenbourne-grove-leopardstown-dublin-18/4447555 These are the actual selling prices on the same road in the estate according to the Property Price Register over the past number of years: https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=[address]=Glenbourne%20Grove%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Glenbourne%20Grove *You may have to copy and paste the link for the Property Price Register page to go to the page for that estate.
dor843088 wrote: » Great point. Anyone getting into a bidding war now is just silly. Strong buying positions worth it weight in gold going forward. Bid low and hold.
Thierry12 wrote: » Isn't that the important one? AIP can be done online in 2 mins
fliball123 wrote: » AIP would be an indicator of demand even if they dont get approval it means the person still wanted to buy
SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: » I wish I was bidding against you
Pelezico wrote: » There must be a lot of rejections. Covid payment recipients are probably being rejected
fliball123 wrote: » And rightly so I mean if your employer needs the state to come in and pay some of your wages then your job is not safe and it would be incorrect for a bank to take a risk on you
JamesMason wrote: » The US economy is in tatters...the UK economy has fell into the deepest recession in living memory. However, in Ireland sure it's grand..quick buy a house now...demand is high ...get in now before it's too late. It's like CoVid never happened. Bat**** crazy behaviour. When the penny drops in the autumn the SWHTF.
Cyrus wrote: » It’s autumn now is it ? And when it doesn’t happen in autumn it’ll be q1 next year and so on Eventually you will be right like a stopped clock
Iceman29 wrote: » So basically there's been a 31% reduction in final approvals ie banks tightening the rules. 31% less people able to draw down. 31% less demand 31% less people able to borrow 31% that will will grow as more job losses happen This is pretty massive of everyone is being honest here
Iceman29 wrote: » Not really, solicitors and mortgage brokers were all working during lockdown. The whole paper side of buying a house was all working. The only thing that was affected was the viewings and that wasn't for that long really.
JJJackal wrote: » Your job is at risk for certain; there is a slight nuance here though - your perfectly successful profitable business is shut down due to COVID (lets say a bar) - when and if COVID is over my business will be successful and profitable again and I will need workers - meanwhile the state pays them
fliball123 wrote: » It wont if the availability of property goes down as well as the numbers that can buy go down the status quo continues supply vs demand = price this has always been and always will be the basis of any price
An Ri rua wrote: » That's not demand. That's dreaming.
fliball123 wrote: » Ah in fairness its not if someone has physically gone through the trouble of identifying a property, going to see once maybe twice, gone through the bidding process, gone to the bank to ask about a mortgage, jumped through the hoops to get approval and then waiting for draw down and are told its not happening due to Covid, its hardly dreaming they have physically done a lot of things. they may of been dreaming of being married to a model and iiving on a huge yacht of the south coast of France but to say to want to own and live in your own place in Ireland is dreaming is a bit of a stretch.
schmittel wrote: » The idea that if supply falls equally to match a fall in demand means that there is no net effect on price is ridiculous: The supply is falling because people who might otherwise have property on the market but who don't have to sell, or wish to hold out for a better price, or will wait and see, will decide not to sell. So basically less sellers who do not have to sell = drop in supply. Demand is falling because unemployment is rising, mortgage approvals are down, people are more cautious, uncertainty will cause them to wait and see. So basically less buyers who are the most sensitive to consumer confidence and strength of economy = drop in supply. Plenty on here, not just fliball, seem to think that this supply/demand drop will balance each other out and have no significant effect, and that some of us, like myself, are too thick to understand the concept of supply and demand. But have they considered that their logic consists of taking the strongest sellers out of the market? - i.e the properties that will be on the market will be forced sellers, and those who don't wish to wait and see for whatever reason. And the weakest buyers have been taken out of the market - those who only get mortgage approval in the good times etc. It will be cash buyers and those with rock solid incomes that remain. Sure supply might drop to match demand but if it does so we have a market that is dominated by weak sellers and strong buyers. Otherwise known as a buyers market, characterised by lower prices.
An Ri rua wrote: » He can't tell you when the radical State interventions will end but it's soon after that. Wake up.
Thierry12 wrote: » AIP can be done online in a few mins You can lie through your teeth to get it No one should be bidding with it
fliball123 wrote: » Lets just be clear at the demand has to continue to drop to meet supply, the figures where put up for you and prices have not dropped yet. Do you not agree on what is widely regardless as rule one or Ecconomics 101 supply vs demand = price ? if supply falls it has an effect on price if demand falls it has an effect on price if they both fall which is what has happened over the last few months and falling pretty much at the same rate, then price does not change. But like I said if you dont believe me look at the stat that was put up about the price of property and even with less transactions going through there has been no price drop in property. We are 6 months in to the pandemic and there is phuck all proof of what your trying to spin. The stats are there to back up what I have been saying and what has actually happened. The other points are what if everything gets back on track , what if the Ruskies have a cure then people looking for a drop will be left waiting as once lads who are back off their corona payments they will be in the queue to get a property and driving demand again.
Iceman29 wrote: » 100%
Cyrus wrote: » True but as a seller you would want to make sure your ea is filtering these people out as it’s a pain having a sale fall through .
fliball123 wrote: » But no one knows what might happen between point A and Point B say the Bar owner dies and the kids dont want to open and just want to sell, then you have no job. The only measure for success should be when your business is back open and the state is no longer helping with paying your employees. The employee should be back off Covid payments for at least 3 months before they can draw down a mortgage
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