TheSheriff wrote: » Just for context; while I do expect some modest price drops, I have been coming to this forum for 2 years, and for 2 years the advice has been that price drops are coming. Before Covid it was Brexit. At some point people will be correct.
tigger123 wrote: » The article says it can cost up to 460k, not that it does, or will cost 460k. It makes sense when you think about it; the price of the land built upon will have a significant effect on the cost of the property.
PropQueries wrote: » Article in Irish Times today about how we now need to build 47,000 houses a year. It also states that it now costs €460,000 to build a two-bed apartment in Dublin. It's the €460,000 cost that makes me suspicious of the rest of the conclusions in the report. The Irish Times article is here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/47-000-homes-need-to-be-built-each-year-to-solve-housing-crisis-report-says-1.4329432 Two-Bed New Built A-Rated Apartment in Castleknock advertised at €410,000: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/?s%5Bmnb%5D=2&s%5Bmxb%5D=2&s%5Badvanced%5D=1&s%5Bnew%5D=1&searchSource=sale Two-Bed New Built A-Rated Apartments in Lucan advertised at €295,000: https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/lucan/2-bedroom-apartment-shackleton-park-lucan-dublin-2453619/
PropQueries wrote: » If there were 40,000 people over the age of 80 in Dublin in the last Census, would that mean there's homes for 40,000 younger people about to enter the market (to rent or buy) in the very near future? Just not sure why there's never any commentary in the media about this fact as it does seem like a lot of potential supply coming down the tracks that nobody seems to factor in.
ShedTower wrote: » The further drop in sales in July might be significant. Or would this have been expected to this extent as we get further from pre-lockdown activities? If the ratio of sales to available stock is decreasing then prices will only go down I would have thought.
Bass Reeves wrote: » Vulture funds are another name for hedge funds or venture capitalists. I general these people invested in banks and bought non preforming loans at a discount and bought development land off NAMA and commercial property. Not all the property or loans were just on this state alone. In general they did not buy houses REIT'S started to buy some as the rental market recovered. Reit's were going to be the big game changer in the rental market we were all told 6-8years ago. They reduce rental costs to the great unwashed. Everybody would have housing for nothing. As I explained back then there cost base is too high. However they are here now and are leaverged so that they can work the apartment building side of development. Si the economics were always there just the lads that are misreading this downturn misread the last up turn.
Mic 1972 wrote: » Sales prices showing no sign of decline as latest report belowhttps://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/98d5baa18a1bc6d603e0/
PropQueries wrote: » I don't the lads misread the last downturn. They got the economics right. What they didn't factor in was that the Government would bring in policies to encourage the vulture funds to come in and buy tens of thousands of houses off the banks and NAMA. I don't think the vulture funds will a factor this time as all the easy, bulk buying of properties has been completed and there's not much left for them to buy in significant bulk or at such low prices to make it worth their while to return.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » I dont see house prices dropping 30-40% but also to see people state because no real drops have been seen thus far means the market is holding firm is premature.
Bass Reeves wrote: » I think this was the disappointing but about some posters. There attitude that taking a chance on a price drop trumped all other options. They did not want to consider any other factors such as rentals coats and lifestyle/quality questions. The question any buyers has to ask themselves is will the chance of a drop in prices be enough to cover the costs and risks involved in not buying while I am able to. There was lads encouraging buyers to renegade or drop there prices at contract stage without factoring in the costs involved and without factoring in the attitude the seller would take and that he would have options of approaching underbidders. Lads advising people to sell and rent for 2-3 year, if moving house. Lads on about investors profit taking Some of the advice was very poor and lacked any understanding of risk involved. But then most seemed to come from lads that misread the last downturn and fails to buy fast enough as prices rose.
Cantstandsya wrote: » There's a bit of the George Bush "Mission Accomplished" about people coming on here to proclaim that because prices haven't gone down yet they never will. Perhaps they won't but we are not through this yet, the government still has the economy on life support and Varadckar was out saying this could last another two years.
Nijmegen wrote: » the doom mongers on here a few months ago were gleefully extolling, telling people not to bother buying for another two to three years. I hope some poor couples didn't listen and pull out, only to see retail sales data back to pre-pandemic levels, income taxes in total down -2.5% year to date and property prices still not budging majorly except for perhaps tactical moves in specific areas. Builders back merrily putting up new construction and selling units fast without touching their prices.
The Spider wrote: Branches, staff will be cut from there, and customers pushed towards online, if a branch pre covid had 10 staff and now due to sofialbdistancing can only accommodate 6, 4 will have to go
TheSheriff wrote: » I know this area really well; the original price was seriously pushing it for a 3 bed in cork! Even the revised price may struggle. These are comparatively more expensive than some of the new builds we looked at the in Dublin area. The developer is reaching definitely; I wonder what uptake they got on any so far. Edit; Looking at the price change history both an increase to 490k and a decrease to 450k occurred today, so possibly an error also? Or a tactic to get parties interested?
MacronvFrugals wrote: » AIB have very little else to outsource at this stage.
CorkRed93 wrote: » https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-bed-detached-blackrock-villas-blackrock-cork/4313650 Decent drop in a desirable area in Cork
lomb wrote: » Those are half a million shoeboxes, looks like one needs a million to get any kind of a house in that area. Is that sensible? Not to me anyway. Even to buy a 500 shoebox one would need an income of 150k. Thats a seriously well paid job or jobs. Those houses were approximately worth 50-60k in 1990 to give an idea.
TheSheriff wrote: » Had posted the below house about two weeks back, gone tonight for 6% over asking.https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/33-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-pp82 Asking 499k, gone for 531k A house on the same road went last month for 525k (Asking was 490k)https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/10-castleknock-avenue-laurel-lodge-castleknock-dublin-d15-da26 So not seeing any evidence of drops; albeit in a very small area!
Bass Reeves wrote: » In market terms a bull us someone that considers the market will keep rising fast. A best is someone who considers the market will collapse. There was very few bulls if any on this thread. Most like myself could not see the house market collapsing. I myself said we could see a price reduction.but it would be.np more than 10% and might not be that much. What we had was a large number of bears that talked about a 20%+ reduction. They posted that there would be a property crash worse than 2007-12. The other view held by me and other was that the conditions in2007-12 were totally different and were created by over supply and a house price boon that had seen exponential rises for the previous 4-8 years. It was driven by unrestricted lending and an attitude that anyone could have 2-3 houses. It was tax driven and ROI for investors was below 2% so an investor was dependent on house price rises to make a profit. Since 2016-2017 prices in Dublin have steadied and very few investors were buying there. House builders were still struggling to finance and start building until 2018/19 therefore supply was limited. House price rises were strictly limited by imposition of 3.5 times lending rules with limited exemptions. Published building costs seemed to bear out everything that those who believed the market would not collapse completely posted. However bears on the thread posted spurious data collected by themselves which had no bearing on the reality on the ground. Any local knowledge by those that could not see a collapse was rubbished. There was no bulls only bears......and maybe a few who taught they could cause market disturbance
