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Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    LATEST TESTING UPDATE

    Tests conducted last 24 hours: 4980
    Tests conducted last 7 days: 25043
    Additional positive tests: 94
    Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.6%
    I'm taking that as a positive. With the 80 cases in a cluster, added to a "normal" day of 20, I was expecting 100+ today.

    Next week will really be make or break on this.
    If asymptomatic is so prevalent, presumably it is in the community a fair bit more than figures suggest? What % of the population has got it since it started do people think (or know)? And is any testing done on positive cases for antibodies etc. as a formal process to see how this works?
    Yeah, potentially. Early data from Iceland suggested that asymptomatic cases could be as much as 50% of all cases. Still very unclear though how many were pre-symptomatic and not just asymptomatic.

    If we take that 50% against our 26,000 cases, that gives an "up to" value of 52,000 infections. These are all really speculatory figures though. There are many who may have been symptomatic and not been tested. Or asymptomatic cases may actually be 3:1 or 10:1. We just don't really know yet.

    There are some public and private studies taking place in regards to antibodies, but you can see that even with the 50,000 figure that only gives a potential immunity in 1% of the population. Antibody testing is mostl valuable in terms of assessing whether vaccination is viable.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,452 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    thelad95 wrote: »
    Tonight's figures are going to be astronomical based on the 60 from yesterday and the information from ACE.

    Glynn was well aware of the high numbers coming hence his comments and the concern around the 3 counties. They had already been told yesterday evening of at least 60 to be reported today

    He flagged it was coming well in advance.
    Soon find out what the recommendations are for the 3 counties


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,452 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,812 ✭✭✭thelad95


    Glynn was well aware of the high numbers coming hence his comments and the concern around the 3 counties. They had already been told yesterday evening of at least 60 to be reported today

    He flagged it was coming well in advance.
    Soon find out what the recommendations are for the 3 counties

    It's hard to know exactly what they can do,. I don't think they're going to shut down businesses again, unfortunately that's something they only really have one go at and they knew that from the start.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 475 ✭✭Onesea


    What's it to you anyway if you live in Norway or wherever it is?

    My dad was in a central located in north inner city Dublin. He had a brief conversation with the owner who stated "there is a famine coming"


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,452 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    thelad95 wrote: »
    It's hard to know exactly what they can do,. I don't think they're going to shut down businesses again, unfortunately that's something they only really have one go at and they knew that from the start.

    Local restrictions is my guess. No non essential travel out of the 3 counties. Pretty difficult to go at that again, all you can do is put out a few Garda checkpoints and hope for the best that people comply because as you point out only really get one go at shutting down businesses but we'll soon see


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,762 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,740 ✭✭✭Naos


    It’s not the Black Death that the government and NPHET would lead you to believe.

    Yes dangerous to certain age groups and compromised people but the fact is and backed up by the numbers

    People actually recover from this and continue to live

    Shocking really that well over 24000 people have actually recovered :eek:

    Yes recovered. But now we’re stuck in a state of scaremongering and fear with the way this thing is being handled by government,NPHET and the media.

    Now from Monday anyone who doesn’t wear a totally unnecessary mask will be treated like a leper and be stared out of it and intimidated because of the fear that’s been put in people

    If they continue it’s going to take a generation for people to recover from this fear.

    Phew! That's good to know. So you're saying that there's no long lasting damage to those that recover from this?
    No evidence masks work.

    Face coverings made from all sorts of material giving people false sense of security around others.

    Very bad decision in reality unless you can provide a standard of mask or fabric that should be used.

    You could wear a sieve on your face and everyone would think your no risk as you have your face covered.

    Herein lies the problems with masks and face coverings

    Answer me this - do you think having a piece of cloth over your mouth & nose prevents more, less or indifferent the amount of droplets that are released into a room if someone talks, coughs or sneezes?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,255 ✭✭✭MOR316


    thelad95 wrote: »
    It's hard to know exactly what they can do,. I don't think they're going to shut down businesses again, unfortunately that's something they only really have one go at and they knew that from the start.

    They can't do that! Punish everyone else for their own and meat factories sloppiness?

    **** me, I'd pack it in if that's the case tbh.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,452 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    That sounds like restrictions

    Soon find out. Thats my guess alright, probably a no non essential travel recommendation or something like it for the 3 counties. Work from home etc


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,010 ✭✭✭GooglePlus


    Soon find out. Thats my guess alright, probably a no non essential travel recommendation or something like it for the 3 counties. Work from home etc

    I wonder if they'll have checks in place on roads or is that even possible given the landscape.

    This will be very hard to enforce and the weekend that's ahead of us doesn't help either.


  • Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    How did we not see this coming. Oh yeah we did. IN MAY!!!!!
    He got shot down as doom monger.
    Accused of smearing.
    That minister needs to be held to account if we can't send kids to school.
    Integrity called into question.
    Who's integrity is intact now?

    Where have I seen this type of interaction before?

    https://twitter.com/paulmurphy_TD/status/1256904837763002370?s=20

    As minister sneers at 1min37seconds


  • Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    seamus wrote: »
    I'm taking that as a positive. With the 80 cases in a cluster, added to a "normal" day of 20, I was expecting 100+ today.

    Next week will really be make or break on this.

    Yeah, potentially. Early data from Iceland suggested that asymptomatic cases could be as much as 50% of all cases. Still very unclear though how many were pre-symptomatic and not just asymptomatic.

    If we take that 50% against our 26,000 cases, that gives an "up to" value of 52,000 infections. These are all really speculatory figures though. There are many who may have been symptomatic and not been tested. Or asymptomatic cases may actually be 3:1 or 10:1. We just don't really know yet.

    There are some public and private studies taking place in regards to antibodies, but you can see that even with the 50,000 figure that only gives a potential immunity in 1% of the population. Antibody testing is mostl valuable in terms of assessing whether vaccination is viable.

    And that's out of our 26k cases. But it's possible that we have 200k cases that were asymptomatic and never tested as well no? Or more.. Who knows without mass testing of all citizens


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 903 ✭✭✭big syke


    How did we not see this coming. Oh yeah we did. IN MAY!!!!!
    He got shot down as doom monger.
    Accused of smearing.
    That minister needs to be held to account if we can't send kids to school.
    Integrity called into question.
    Who's integrity is intact now?

    Where have I seen this type of interaction before?

    https://twitter.com/paulmurphy_TD/status/1256904837763002370?s=20

    Damn. Usually roll my eyes and call him a ****** when that ****ebag talks but he was spot on in this case.

    100% needs to be held accountable.

    Well done to Mr Murphy too.

    Uh i feel gross now :(.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,762 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    And that's out of our 26k cases. But it's possible that we have 200k cases that were asymptomatic and never tested as well no? Or more.. Who knows without mass testing of all citizens

    An IFR of 0.6% suggests 260,000 cases


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,435 ✭✭✭mandrake04


    LATEST TESTING UPDATE

    Tests conducted last 24 hours: 4980
    Tests conducted last 7 days: 25043
    Additional positive tests: 94
    Positivity Rate last 7 days: 1.6%

    Thought I throw this in as comparison

    This is just Victoria's positive rate since the start of June, you see mid June once the case number starts to hit a higher number the tests increase next day then as they hit double figures consistently for about 5-6 days they realise there a definite problem and the tests just double overnight.



    DATE CASES TESTS POS

    Mon 1 Jun 4 5,850 0.07 %
    Tue 2 Jun 10 5,818 0.17 %
    Wed 3 Jun 7 5,148 0.14 %
    Thu 4 Jun 8 9,683 0.08 %
    Fri 5 Jun 3 6,768 0.04 %
    Sat 6 Jun 0 12,142 0.00 %
    Sun 7 Jun 4 9,140 0.04 %
    Mon 8 Jun 2 3,752 0.05 %
    Tue 9 Jun 0 4,181 0.00 %
    Wed 10 Jun 4 9,955 0.04 %
    Thu 11 Jun 8 6,348 0.13 %
    Fri 12 Jun 4 8,793 0.05 %
    Sat 13 Jun 8 9,529 0.08 %
    Sun 14 Jun 9 8,339 0.11 %
    Mon 15 Jun 12 4,012 0.30 %
    Tue 16 Jun 9 5,030 0.18 %
    Wed 17 Jun 21 8,931 0.24 %
    Thu 18 Jun 18 12,400 0.15 %
    Fri 19 Jun 12 14,671 0.08 %
    Sat 20 Jun 25 9,504 0.26 %
    Sun 21 Jun 19 15,400 0.12 %
    Mon 22 Jun 11 6,314 0.17 %
    Tue 23 Jun 17 8,149 0.21 %
    Wed 24 Jun 20 20,999 0.10 %
    Thu 25 Jun 33 20,304 0.16 %
    Fri 26 Jun 30 20,168 0.15 %
    Sat 27 Jun 40 22,103 0.18 %
    Sun 28 Jun 41 17,954 0.23 %
    Mon 29 Jun 71 15,381 0.46 %
    Tue 30 Jun 60 17,416 0.34 %
    Wed 1 Jul 72 20,682 0.35 %
    Thu 2 Jul 72 26,320 0.27 %
    Fri 3 Jul 65 24,430 0.27 %
    Sat 4 Jul 101 25,553 0.40 %
    Sun 5 Jul 67 21,597 0.31 %
    Mon 6 Jul 124 24,528 0.51 %
    Tue 7 Jul 164 26,554 0.62 %
    Wed 8 Jul 118 29,424 0.40 %
    Thu 9 Jul 156 21,785 0.72 %
    Fri 10 Jul 281 37,588 0.75 %
    Sat 11 Jul 181 27,169 0.67 %
    Sun 12 Jul 239 30,195 0.79 %
    Mon 13 Jul 168 22,943 0.73 %
    Tue 14 Jul 257 21,995 1.17 %
    Wed 15 Jul 224 27,040 0.83 %
    Thu 16 Jul 302 28,607 1.06 %
    Fri 17 Jul 415 24,409 1.70 %
    Sat 18 Jul 188 28,104 0.67 %
    Sun 19 Jul 343 26,674 1.29 %
    Mon 20 Jul 246 26,588 0.93 %
    Tue 21 Jul 347 29,464 1.18 %
    Wed 22 Jul 450 24,726 1.82 %
    Thu 23 Jul 386 27,151 1.42 %
    Fri 24 Jul 280 24,118 1.16 %
    Sat 25 Jul 339 20,313 1.67 %
    Sun 26 Jul 437 42,973 1.02 %
    Mon 27 Jul 515 17,588 2.93 %
    Tue 28 Jul 353 18,521 1.91 %
    Wed 29 Jul 255 18,077 1.41 %
    Thu 30 Jul 694 19,921 3.48 %
    Fri 31 Jul 579 33,826 1.71 %
    Sat 1 Aug 354 25,501 1.39 %
    Sun 2 Aug 626 19,094 3.28 %
    Mon 3 Aug 380 23,906 1.59 %
    Tue 4 Aug 398 21,000 1.90 %
    Wed 5 Aug 700 24,000 2.92 %
    Thu 6 Aug 434 24,947 1.74 %
    Fri 7 Aug 398 25,053 1.59 %





  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    As minister sneers at 1min37seconds
    Well, Paul Murphy is like a blind man in front of a dart board. He will hit it but you never know when!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 359 ✭✭The Unbearables


    How did we not see this coming. Oh yeah we did. IN MAY!!!!!
    He got shot down as doom monger.
    Accused of smearing.
    That minister needs to be held to account if we can't send kids to school.
    Integrity called into question.
    Who's integrity is intact now?

    Where have I seen this type of interaction before?

    https://twitter.com/paulmurphy_TD/status/1256904837763002370?s=20

    Not a big fan of Murphy on many an issue but he's spot on here.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,255 ✭✭✭MOR316


    Maybe I'm wrong here and perhaps I've gone overboard but, with what I'm reading on the last few pages, with all the quotes from Lynn, Martin etc but, it strikes a question in me...

    Have we(Government) made a balls of this, to the point it doesn't make Boris look as foolish?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    How did we not see this coming. Oh yeah we did. IN MAY!!!!!
    He got shot down as doom monger.
    Accused of smearing.
    That minister needs to be held to account if we can't send kids to school.
    Integrity called into question.
    Who's integrity is intact now?

    Where have I seen this type of interaction before?

    https://twitter.com/paulmurphy_TD/status/1256904837763002370?s=20

    I dislike agreeing with that man.

    Everyone wondering about a lockdown. I wonder is anyone considering actually inspecting other factories where this could happen? Or are we going with lockdown and get shocked when the same happens elsewhere in a few weeks and wonder how it keeps spreading when we are doing all this lockdown.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,780 ✭✭✭Pinch Flat


    Naos wrote: »
    Answer me this - do you think having a piece of cloth over your mouth & nose prevents more, less or indifferent the amount of droplets that are released into a room if someone talks, coughs or sneezes?

    I've same question with someone on FB who is to get back to me. Apparently, masks don't work. But yet when people can openly cough, sneeze and spit droplets that's better. I don't understand the logic, notwithstanding the overwhelming medical advice that masks prevent the spread of disease.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    I know the US have reduced their testing capacity in the last few weeks. Could be part of that downward trend...
    The CDC are also no longer in charge of reporting the figures, iirc.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    MOR316 wrote: »
    Maybe I'm wrong here and perhaps I've gone overboard but, with what I'm reading on the last few pages, with all the quotes from Lynn, Martin etc but, it strikes a question in me...

    Have we(Government) made a balls of this, to the point it doesn't make Boris look as foolish?

    That is overboard. We were not encouraging anyone to shake hands ina pandemic or test their eyesight by driving half the country.

    It is like saying man u have done badly the last few seasons but saying they are the equivalent of a league 2 side is overboard.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,725 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Ficheall wrote: »
    The CDC are also no longer in charge of reporting the figures, iirc.

    Yep, don't trust the numbers anymore. Florida was caught out firing one of the state level scientists for being too honest with the data - Republican run state that Trump has seriously buddied up to. Lots of suspect activity going on now that all the data is being filtered through the White House.

    https://www.npr.org/2020/06/29/884551391/florida-scientist-says-she-was-fired-for-not-manipulating-covid-19-data


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Pinch Flat wrote: »
    I've same question with someone on FB who is to get back to me. Apparently, masks don't work. But yet when people can openly cough, sneeze and spit droplets that's better. I don't understand the logic, notwithstanding the overwhelming medical advice that masks prevent the spread of disease.
    Not medical advice, a whole cacophony of lab tests. Masks are aimed at allowing greater numbers of people move around.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,512 ✭✭✭harr


    How are local restrictions going to work it seems unenforceable . I live directly on Laois kildare border .. I am in kildare my neighbour across the road is in Laois and my sister less than half a mile down the road is in offaly .. I do most of shopping in Laois my wife works in different county.. my children’s friends are mixed between the 3 counties as are my family.
    You have a motorway going through kildare and Laois.
    Our staycation is booked for next week and we have already lost big money on our package holiday this year.
    We will all crack up if we are locked down again and can’t get away the only thing keeping kids sane in the excitement of getting to Kerry for a week .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,255 ✭✭✭MOR316


    Christy42 wrote: »
    That is overboard. We were not encouraging anyone to shake hands ina pandemic or test their eyesight by driving half the country.

    It is like saying man u have done badly the last few seasons but saying they are the equivalent of a league 2 side is overboard.

    Yeah, you're right. Sorry.

    Forget the Boris part of my question


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,255 ✭✭✭MOR316


    harr wrote: »
    How are local restrictions going to work it seems unenforceable . I live directly on Laois kildare border .. I am in kildare my neighbour across the road is in Laois and my sister less than half a mile down the road is in offaly .. I do most of shopping in Laois my wife works in different county.. my children’s friends are mixed between the 3 counties as are my family.
    You have a motorway going through kildare and Laois.
    Our staycation is booked for next week and we have already lost big money on our package holiday this year.
    We will all crack up if we are locked down again and can’t get away the only thing keeping kids sane in the excitement of getting to Kerry for a week .

    National restrictions like previously?

    They can **** off if that's the case.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    harr wrote: »
    How are local restrictions going to work it seems unenforceable . I live directly on Laois kildare border .. I am in kildare my neighbour across the road is in Laois and my sister less than half a mile down the road is in offaly .. I do most of shopping in Laois my wife works in different county.. my children’s friends are mixed between the 3 counties as are my family.
    You have a motorway going through kildare and Laois.
    Our staycation is booked for next week and we have already lost big money on our package holiday this year.
    We will all crack up if we are locked down again and can’t get away the only thing keeping kids sane in the excitement of getting to Kerry for a week .
    Nothing in there that is not essential. Go, enjoy!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,106 ✭✭✭Christy42


    MOR316 wrote: »
    Yeah, you're right. Sorry.

    Forget the Boris part of my question

    It is understandable. We tend to forget scale on these things. You are absolutely right that we have f'd this part up royally. These latest outbreaks were preventable.


This discussion has been closed.
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