What is our plan?

fly_agaric

dubrov wrote: »

I'm afraid that involves a miracle. Total eradication is not a realistic possibility even with the border fully closed

It is possible in (unlikely) event we got NI on board with some common plan of testing/monitoring/quarantining (delete as appropriate, depending on situation) all arrivals.
Once we include them, we do all live on a small island with a manageable population in which virus can be eliminated. You can't get in here without coming on a plane or a boat so (edit virtually...?) all entries could be monitored/controlled if the will is there.

However, even if political will to restrict travel for elimination existed here (it obviously does not), it would involve NI giving 2 fingers to UK govt. too.
I think health is devolved (?) so they probably could do it (as an extraordinary public health measure).

I'd imagine the Conservatives would be angry. They would probably try & stop it, or would take revenge on NI assembly some other way (funding cuts?).

HeidiHeidi

fly_agaric wrote: »

It is possible in (unlikely) event we got NI on board with some common plan of testing/monitoring/quarantining (delete as appropriate, depending on situation) all arrivals.
Once we include them, we do all live on a small island with a manageable population in which virus can be eliminated. You can't get in here without coming on a plane or a boat so all entries could be monitored/controlled if the will is there.

However, even if political will to restrict travel for elimination existed here (it obviously does not), it would involve NI giving 2 fingers to UK govt. too.
I think health is devolved (?) so they probably could to do it (as an extraordinary public health measure).

I'd imagine the Conservatives would be angry. They would probably try & stop it, or would take revenge on NI assembly some other way (funding cuts?).

And how would you plan to get NI to close its border with the rest of the UK?

Honestly, I'd love to be smoking what some posters in here are on!

fly_agaric

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

And how would you plan to get NI to close its border with the rest of the UK?

Honestly, I'd love to be smoking what some posters in here are on!

Ha I only said it is possible. edit: I have not been partaking of anything.
Theoretically possible...but not politically possible!
Probably one of those "if my aunt had..." things. :pac:

Bit cynical

MadYaker wrote: »

How could you not know what the plan is OP? Its been pretty much the same since March bar the speeding up of the reopening. I think a lot of people just don't understand whats happening and thats why they are frustrated.

If that was the plan, it was a plan that was never going to work.

Shutting things down does lower infection rates. No problem with that, but there's no permanence in that solution. Even if no restrictions are lifted, people will start finding ways around them and the R number will rise above 1 and cases start to increase. Actual lifting of the restrictions and cases also rise. They are rising now and therefore we can't ease any more restrictions. The plan has hit a brick wall.

I think we're going to have to open schools in September. We have no choice and while schools are probably not the biggest problem, cases will continue to rise at a faster rate.

The measures we took were successful in a very narrow sense. We got infections and deaths down. But a very low level of infections also means very low levels of immunity and this in turn means greater increases when anything opens up (such as things like schools which have to open up) and also when people inevitably find ways around the restrictions.

So there is no plan at the moment. I don't know what we were thinking. Maybe we thought there would be a vaccine in September.

hmmm

Bit cynical wrote: »

But a very low level of infections also means very low levels of immunity and this in turn means greater increases when anything opens up (such as things like schools which have to open up) and also when people inevitably find ways around the restrictions.

The answer is in your own post.

The government can't do everything here. If people don't want to follow social distancing, throw house parties etc. there isn't much we can do.

And no-one is going to advocate letting the virus rip through the population.

i_surge

fly_agaric wrote: »

Ha I only said it is possible. edit: I have not been partaking of anything.
Theoretically possible...but not politically possible!
Probably one of those "if my aunt had..." things. :pac:

Mediocre closed minded European attitude.

We should look to our betters in Asia who don't make excuses.

Feria40

A lot of comments around a vaccine being discovered this year with a roll out in 2021.

IMO that is extremely optimistic, especially the roll out.

Also it appears that all the vaccines in the works are likely to give no more than 12 months protection at best, perhaps less.

That's fine, we can have annual boosters but unless a very large portion of the country (and planet) get vaccinated very very quickly this thing could keep rolling around for several years.

Also, it's highly unlikely that it will become mandatory for people to take any vaccine. Especially when said vaccine is going to be so new and relatively untested.

I don't expect we will ever seal our borders but even if we somehow did it would be for a very short period only.

While we should 100% focus on track and trace as best we can, it has to be remembered that a significant portion of people who get this prick of a disease will be either asymptomatic or have mild symptoms. This means that it is inevitable that some level of transmission will keep occuring

IMHO, we need to get real on enforcement of the existing rules. Social distancing in supermarkets? No such thing. Never mind the likes of meat plants.

I know mask wearing is not mandatory just yet in shops but Jesus it seemed like every single middle aged man I saw in my local shopping centre today had the mask over their mouths but not nose.

In Ireland it seems that the government is leaving enforcement entirely in the hands of the community. While in many European countries (which some have spent the last month wagging their fingers at due to spiraling infection rates - pot/kettle now) enforcement is a big deal with potentially huge financial penalties for non compliance.

Get real on enforcement, get real on ensuring the elderly in our nursing homes are protected and then start getting on with normal life.

It pains me to say it but the most vulnerable, including the likes of my own parents may need to shield themselves for an extended period.

Bottom line we need to get on with life.

i_surge

Bit cynical wrote: »

If that was the plan, it was a plan that was never going to work.
We have no choice

See above.

There are always options.

bettyoleary

touts wrote: »

Plan is reopen the economy and hope for the best. Unfortunately it has to be done. The economy can't continue half open. Schools reopening is key as that allows parents to go back to work. If there is a rise in cases there is a rise in cases. It's probably seen as the lesser of two evils now. Couple of symbolic things (e.g. leave the wet pubs closed a few weeks longer) will be done to make it seem like the lockdown is still a possibility but in reality the economy now takes priority

But why dont we consider what jobs the parents are going back too. Schools opening fully will spread the virus exponentially, that is a given. Home schooling is a viable option and children do very well. Look at research. When teaching gets beyond parents capabilities then home tutors can be called in. There will be plenty available. Parents who claim they cant afford this arnt earning enough to make the jobs they do important enough to risk a huge surge in the virus. The jobs they do can easily be done by people who dont have child commitments.

Children can meet outside and in pods for sports. That solves the problem of children missing friends, peers etc. Its a way better solution. Gets rid of bullying, peer pressure for drugs etc etc. Simple.

gabeeg

To my mind there's been two significant developments in our understanding of the virus that have left us somewhat adrift in terms of what our plan should be.

1. Aerosol transmission
Back in March/April the game was all about washing your hands and coughing into your sleeve.
Now that we know this is an airborne virus spread by symptomatic and not-symptomatic alike, that hangs in the air in poorly ventilated spaces, well, it changes everything.
Simply put that means any shared indoor space, be it pub, school or meat factory is not safe. And cannot credibly be made safe in any realistic timeframe.

2. Long covid
It's not binary. Not simply life or death. This virus is seriously debilitating people in a multitude of ways.
"Living with virus" is a wretched experience for an untold number of people.
There's a huge potential economic burden to this too, as those with long term issues will most likely be less productive and also require significant help from our health system for an unknown amount of time. Possibly decades.

I don't know what our plan should be. No fan of our gov, but I do have sympathy with them on this as it's a near impossible problem to navigate.
Chuck brexit on top of it and it all just seems beyond the ken of any government of any hue.

HeidiHeidi

i_surge wrote: »

See above.

There are always options.

Closing our borders, and completely eradicating the virus (to take two of your more recent hare-brained examples) are not actually options.

i_surge

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Closing our borders, and completely eradicating the virus (to take two of your more recent hare-brained examples) are not actually options.

They are only hare brained when you are painfully closed minded.

Aim for total eradication and if you get most of the way that would be a big improvement.

The current plan is a tried and tested recipe for a second wave.

Mediocre

fly_agaric

i_surge wrote: »

Mediocre closed minded European attitude.

We should look to our betters in Asia who don't make excuses.

No, it is realism re the situation.
I'm increasingly of opinion elimination may be the way to go, but I don't think the political situation here makes it easy. It may not be possible.
We could control inward travel much more, but even if we do that (I believe we should) we may not ever get to "elimination" (and full benefits of that status) because of the (weak) link with the UK via NI. If they (NI, or more realistically UK as a whole, where trying to eliminate the virus completely would be a big & painful task) don't adopt the same policy as us, it is going to be futile.
Our "betters", not so sure about that. Asia isn't a monolith either.

hmmm

gabeeg wrote: »

To my mind there's been two significant developments in our understanding of the virus that have left us somewhat adrift in terms of what our plan should be..

If it was widely airborne, we'd have lots of spread. Clearly it is in certain situations, but it doesn't appear to be the main source of spread.

Agreed re the long Covid.

The fact that the lockdowns worked has made people complacent. If this had been like 1918 and every family had seen family members seriously sick, we'd be acting differently. As it is we think it is some minor thing which will go away in the near future, when in reality it's a dangerous virus which won't be reliably under control until we get a vaccine.

Bit cynical

i_surge wrote: »

It is realistic.

It is so simple at the core.....in the presence of the virus there are only two factors, social mixing and hygiene when people meet.

If standards were ramped up and the public got behind getting their lives back with good notice to prepare, sort out the financial mechanics of keeping everyone but the most essential services safe at home, ramp up non contact food delivery, strict punishments for non compliance teamed with social shaming tactics it could be done in 6 to 8 weeks. With some design there could still be socialising of sorts. Governments were throwing the book at it initially but they got tired and a half in half out worked to an extent but now we are stuck and it is time to ramp up.

You only see deprivation when delayed gratification it is the key to your freedom.

No, that is not my objection to your idea. The problem is that the plan would not work in a permanent fashion. Absolutely no problem personally making the appropriate sacrifices if it would work.

i_surge

hmmm wrote: »

If it was widely airborne, we'd have lots of spread. Clearly it is in certain situations, but it doesn't appear to be the main source of spread.

Agreed re the long Covid.

The fact that the lockdowns worked has made people complacent. If this had been like 1918 and every family had seen family members seriously sick, we'd be acting differently. As it is we think it is some minor thing which will go away in the near future, when in reality it's a dangerous virus which won't be reliably under control until we get a vaccine.

Known psychological effects from warzones, I survived this far, be grand.

The challenge now is much harder because we are lockdowned out. Will need some serious social engineering to get people behind doing the right thing but it is possible.

i_surge

Bit cynical wrote: »

No, that is not my objection to your idea. The problem is that the plan would not work in a permanent fashion. Absolutely no problem personally making the appropriate sacrifices if it would work.

Still better than the alternative.

I would love to be in New Zealand or Vietnam right now.

fly_agaric

fly_agaric wrote: »

No, it is realism re the situation.
I'm increasingly of opinion elimination may be the way to go, but I don't think the political situation here makes it easy. It may not be possible.
We could control inward travel much more, but even if we do that (I believe we should) we may not ever get to "elimination" (and full benefits of that status) because of the (weak) link with the UK via NI. If they don't adopt the same policy as us, it is going to be futile.
Our "betters", not so sure about that. Asia isn't a monolith either.

It’s not just a weak link with the UK via NI. Under the CTA every UK passport holder has automatic entry into and a permanent residency right in Ireland. No permit needed. Even in schengen you need a permit to actually reside in a different schengen country. You can’t actually stop a British passport holder at a port or airport unless Ireland pulls out of the CTA as they are automatically, in effect, Itish residents. And vice versa of course

HeidiHeidi

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s not just a weak link with the UK via NI. Under the CTA every UK passport holder has automatic entry into and a permanent residency right in Ireland. No permit needed. Even in schengen you need a permit to actually reside in a different schengen country. You can’t actually stop a British passport holder at a port or airport unless Ireland pulls out of the CTA as they are automatically, in effect, Itish residents. And vice versa of course

You can't be letting pesky little details like that get in the way of The Grand Plan :rolleyes:

So what happens when we've eradicated it in 6 weeks flat, but it's still on the march worldwide? Stay locked up/down/in? Open up, and we start all over again?

i_surge

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s not just a weak link with the UK via NI. Under the CTA every UK passport holder has automatic entry into and a permanent residency right in Ireland. No permit needed. Even in schengen you need a permit to actually reside in a different schengen country. You can’t actually stop a British passport holder at a port or airport unless Ireland pulls out of the CTA as they are automatically, in effect, Itish residents. And vice versa of course

Small minds

All sorts of countries have done all sorts of things with their immigration setup during covid. It is standard, expected and reasonable.

Travel can be allowed with testing, temp scans and forced quarantine all logically consistent with the whole world being on pause for 5 months and needing to fix that.

4068ac1elhodqr

i_surge wrote: »

Still better than the alternative.
I would love to be in New Zealand or Vietnam right now.

NZ is fairly unique location on the globe, and hence the choice destinaiton for the billionares to splurge out on their dd bunkers (on the S.Island).

Very remote, 28.5hr flight typically, from the W.Eurozone. the Kiwis are a grand bunch, very similar to the Irish, Aussies are a tad more 'dry'.

i_surge

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

You can't be letting pesky little details like that get in the way of The Grand Plan :rolleyes:

So what happens when we've eradicated it in 6 weeks flat, but it's still on the march worldwide? Stay locked up/down/in? Open up, and we start all over again?

Live in relative bliss in your own country with friends and family, food, drink and merriment.

Continue to control the borders. Follow our Asian betters to the letter on this.

darjeeling

Three was to avoid a second wave:

1) Vaccine - out of our hands, but is likely to be the best long term solution

2) Social distancing - works, but destroys jobs & businesses, stops children & students getting an education.
Trying to relax social distancing while only testing reactively once outbreaks are established means there is a ceiling to how much economic and social activity we can allow. This is what we and many other countries in Europe are finding out.

3) Mass testing. We've already ramped up over 10x since March, but need to go 10x higher again.
Test asymptomatic people regularly - e.g. all school children, college students once or twice a week, test in workplaces, hospitals etc.
This model has been increasingly discussed in the US in recent weeks and I've not heard anyone argue against it. In fact it's now becoming the orthodox position among experts & health professionals talking to the media.
This could be done but we need to identify all bottlenecks in the testing process and figure how to get round them.
Ideally we would have a point-of-use dipstick-type test that doesn't need a trained person to take a sample, but this technology hasn't been approved yet & isn't likely to be mass produced & available here for months, so we would need to consider all alternatives meanwhile.

HeidiHeidi

i_surge wrote: »

Live in relative bliss in your own country with friends and family, food, drink and merriment.

Now I know you're just on a wind-up.

I'm out.

i_surge

i_surge wrote: »

Small minds

All sorts of countries have done all sorts of things with their immigration setup during covid. It is standard, expected and reasonable.

Travel can be allowed with testing, temp scans and forced quarantine all logically consistent with the whole world being on pause for 5 months and needing to fix that.

Lots of us have family spread across these islands. Anything like you suggest, for the length of time you suggest, would have to be on a British isles basis

HeidiHeidi

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Now I know you're just on a wind-up.

I'm out.

Yes, that’s given it away. It’s a wind-up thread

Feria40

i_surge wrote: »

Small minds

All sorts of countries have done all sorts of things with their immigration setup during covid. It is standard, expected and reasonable.

Travel can be allowed with testing, temp scans and forced quarantine all logically consistent with the whole world being on pause for 5 months and needing to fix that.

You are right, countries have done all sorts but are the ones that have taken tough measures re borders etc. really comparable to us?

And how long more can those same countries continue with those ultra strict border controls? Years?

I hate to throw out the clichéd "we are a small open economy" but we really really are.

Anyone that looks back on my post history will see that I am very very pro travel but if I thought that banning all flights and sealing our borders (somehow) until the end of 2020 would save us all from this blasted disease then I would be all for it.

The trouble is that I don't believe it would.

i_surge

I'm deadly serious. I honestly don't get why people love making a bollox of everything continuously. Do your best and if you fail so be it but to not try is criminal.

fly_agaric

Deleted User wrote: »

It’s not just a weak link with the UK via NI. Under the CTA every UK passport holder has automatic entry into and a permanent residency right in Ireland. No permit needed. Even in schengen you need a permit to actually reside in a different schengen country. You can’t actually stop a British passport holder at a port or airport unless Ireland pulls out of the CTA as they are automatically, in effect, Itish residents. And vice versa of course

We are sovereign and have power to suspend that (CTA).
It is impossible to do anything unilaterally about NI related issues that would introduce new cases, either the land border with us, its internal politics as part of the UK or what policies they adopt.
I was just engaging in (idle...) thought experiments about an "elimination" policy and what it would entail here. I added to my post above that we really would need UK entire on same page.

i_surge

Feria40 wrote: »

You are right, countries have done all sorts but are the ones that have taken tough measures re borders etc. really comparable to us?

And how long more can those same countries continue with those ultra strict border controls? Years?

I hate to throw out the clichéd "we are a small open economy" but we really really are.

Anyone that looks back on my post history will see that I am very very pro travel but if I thought that banning all flights and sealing our borders (somehow) until the end of 2020 would save us all from this blasted disease then I would be all for it.

The trouble is that I don't believe it would.

No one has a crystal ball but to knowingly accept a policy that you know with certainty increases the problem is a curious logic.

4068ac1elhodqr

Singapore has a 'certain approach' to dealing with visitors and returnees.

Starting 11 Aug, they will fit (tamper proof) tracking devices on folks, (assume on legs like the grey tracksuit folks). So if you leave the house, when you shouldn't (1st couple of weeks of arrival), then you big trouble from da man.

S.Kor and HK have a more slimeline wristband (perhaps using bt beacons, rather than full on GPS) for new arrivals. The alert will flash/message the wristband directly (instead of phone) if their bigbro say's you're a naughty boy/girl, or one of the infected.

Bit cynical

i_surge wrote: »

Still better than the alternative.

I would love to be in New Zealand or Vietnam right now.

No, unfortunately, no better than the alternative. It only stops the clock for the duration of the lockdown. Lift the lockdown and infections start increasing again.

It is essentially the same problem we are facing at the moment, with cases increasing from a very small number.

If we were a hermetically sealed country, it might work. But we are not.

nw1dqsv7amx026

hmmm wrote: »

If this had been like 1918 and every family had seen family members seriously sick, we'd be acting differently.

Would you consider that maybe this isn't like 1918 because the virus is nowhere near as lethal, people are healthier and medicine is better?

i_surge

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Now I know you're just on a wind-up.

I'm out.

100% serious. If I was in NZ or Vietnam I'd be having serious craic, safely.

i_surge

Bit cynical wrote: »

Unfortunately, no better than the alternative. It only stops the clock for the duration of the lockdown. Lift the lockdown and infections start increasing again.


It is essentially the same problem we are facing at the moment, with cases increasing from a very small number.

Where do they come from?

Same problem sure, the scale of it could be significantly lessened as it is with our Asian betters right now.

Otherwise we are on a slow bleed train to nowhere without an exit plan.

The_Brood

The plan is the well-off with their big back gardens and money to spend will be alright restrictions or not, while us the lower earners will suffer because we have nothing to turn to when they take everything away. The decision makers are of course higher earners so it's all ok for them, they don't give the slightest damn how much we are left to rot in the pissing rain.

i_surge

Marco Ashy Sarsaparilla wrote: »

Singapore has a 'certain approach' to dealing with visitors and returnees.

Starting 11 Aug, they will fit (tamper proof) tracking devices on folks, (assume on legs like the grey tracksuit folks). So if you leave the house, when you shouldn't (1st couple of weeks of arrival), then you big trouble from da man.

S.Kor and HK have a more slimeline wristband (perhaps using bt beacons, rather than full on GPS) for new arrivals. The alert will flash/message the wristband directly (instead of phone) if their bigbro say's you're a naughty boy/girl, or one of the infected.

OTT but it will most likely work well.

hmmm

Carter Fit Trance wrote: »

Would you consider that maybe this isn't like 1918 because the virus is nowhere near as lethal, people are healthier and medicine is better?

Agreed on the medicine bit - but 1918 had multiple waves, with wave 2 & 3 far worse than wave 1. That was influenza, we can't assume anything with this virus.

If Covid was left spread with no restrictions, we've no idea what the impact would be - although we can get some idea by looking at poor parts of the world where hospitals have been overwhelmed.

Bit cynical

i_surge wrote: »

Where do they come from?

Same problem sure, the scale of it could be significantly lessened as it is with our Asian betters right now.

Otherwise we are on a slow bleed train to nowhere without an exit plan.

I think you need to be clearer on your plans, in particular, how do we keep numbers low without continuing strict measures until a vaccine? What is the exit plan to your plan?

upupup

1st infection,may 2020....Asymtomatic so not worried.:p
2nd infection,may 2021....mild but a bit worried and a little damage done inside.:o
3rd infection,may 2022....very sick,took a long time to get strong again.:mad:
4th infection,may 2023....weakened system from last year,I.C.U. close to death!:eek:
5th infection,may 2024....Death.:(

Its the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine:)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY

i_surge

hmmm wrote: »

1918 had multiple waves, with wave 2 & 3 far worse than wave 1. That was influenza, but we can't assume anything with this virus.

If Covid was left spread with no restrictions, we've no idea what the impact would be - although we can get some idea by looking at poor parts of the world where hospitals have been overwhelmed.

It feels like the people of 2020 are arrogant enough to think this panademic will play out differently to the others. The maths behind it all are fairly simple, human nature hasn't changed and travel has multiplied. We will see.

All our sacrifice, possibly for nothing.

completedit

The_Brood wrote: »

The plan is the well-off with their big back gardens and money to spend will be alright restrictions or not, while us the lower earners will suffer because we have nothing to turn to when they take everything away. The decision makers are of course higher earners so it's all ok for them, they don't give the slightest damn how much we are left to rot in the pissing rain.

This is exactly it. It's easy to be pro-lock down and part of the 'if it saves one life' crowd when you have a nice close social circle, a garden to 'entertain' friends'(no house parties of course) and maybe a partner/kids.

i_surge

Bit cynical wrote: »

I think you need to be clearer on your plans, in particular, how do we keep numbers low without continuing strict measures until a vaccine? What is the exit plan to your plan?

Take any Asian country with low numbers and copy them. It has already been done.

If we were strict enough to get to a New Zealand level of virtual eradication you could live normally with minimal measures as there is nothing to infect you. Do you remember that life?

HeidiHeidi

i_surge wrote: »

Take any Asian country with low numbers and copy them. It has already been done.

If we were strict enough to get to a New Zealand level of virtual eradication you could live normally with minimal measures as there is nothing to infect you. Do you remember that life?

Do you think it's all over in Asia and NZ or something?

And again, what do we do when we've got to your "virtual eradication". Live on spuds and milk from the dairy herd?

hmmm

i_surge wrote: »

Take any Asian country with low numbers and copy them. It has already been done.

Many of the Asian societies you are thinking of are less individualistic than we are. You need more than to copy their tactics, you'd need a brain transplant on society. The idea of holding a house party when society frowns on it would be unthinkable, over here you have people boasting about it.

i_surge

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Do you think it's all over in Asia and NZ or something?

Not over but in a significantly better place. Economically, healthwise and quality of life.

Turkeys voting for Christmas here.

i_surge

hmmm wrote: »

Many of the Asian societies you are thinking of are less individualistic than we are. You need more than to copy their tactics, you'd need a brain transplant on society. The idea of holding a house party when society frowns on it would be unthinkable, over here you have people boasting about it.

So we shouldn't try?

hmmm

i_surge wrote: »

So we shouldn't try?

What are you proposing to try?

The government are giving clear advice on social distancing, mask wearing, reduce social contacts etc. Large numbers are ignoring it (although most I think aren't).

What works in Ireland is when public opinion does the enforcing.

Feria40

i_surge wrote: »

Take any Asian country with low numbers and copy them. It has already been done.

If we were strict enough to get to a New Zealand level of virtual eradication you could live normally with minimal measures as there is nothing to infect you. Do you remember that life?

Back to normal? We are running at 16% unemployment, what normal are these people returning to

nw1dqsv7amx026

hmmm wrote: »

Agreed on the medicine bit - but 1918 had multiple waves, with wave 2 & 3 far worse than wave 1. That was influenza, we can't assume anything with this virus.

If Covid was left spread with no restrictions, we've no idea what the impact would be - although we can get some idea by looking at poor parts of the world where hospitals have been overwhelmed.

Just after 4 years of war. Nutrition not the best anyway. Food shortages. Of course they weren't as healthy.

But, as medicine wasn't as good, people were dying earlier and not living as long. So, people who are alive today because of modern medicine might not have lived then.

I'd suggest that in certain demographics, certainly people younger than me, that this virus is nowhere near as dangerous as Spanish flu.

From what I have read on Spanish flu (not recently) there is widespread disagreement on it? The second waves you refer to, happened in places which had previously been locked down I think after they opened up.
They even argue about the number of dead. Sounds familiar.