Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

ACitizenErased · 05-08-2020 02:16PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

I really don't think everyone who attends a hospital is a suspected case. The figure the other day was less than 100. Surely, there are more than 100 people being admitted to hospitals across the whole country in a day. They might be testing everyone who is admitted to hospital but I don't think they are all counted as suspected cases. Suspected cases might be counted as people showing symptoms or something.

The figure goes up and down depending on how many people's tests are processed. The HSE daily report shows this.
https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid19-daily-operations-update-2000-4-august-2020.pdf
Look at yesterday's. Suspected started at 153 yesterday morning as swabs were taken, it reduces to 121 by lunchtime and 112 by evening.
Out of those, 2 confirmed cases were determined. The middle column which tells you how many confirmed cases were diagnosed in hospitals yesterday. I know for a fact that's how it works.

ACitizenErased · 05-08-2020 02:17PM

seanb85 wrote: »

You're right, they're not counting every admission as suspected Covid, just those displaying Covid symptoms. They are also not testing every hospital admission. There's about 15,000 hospital beds in Ireland, if every admission was counted as a suspect Covid case this would be 500 - 1000 every day.

I know from a direct HSE source that in CUH at least every admission is tested.

Boggles · 05-08-2020 02:17PM

Anyone that is waiting a test result in hospital is considered a suspected case.

The vast vast vast majority of people who attend hospitals are not tested.

They are asked to wear a mask, wait in their car to be called, etc.

seanb85 · 05-08-2020 02:19PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I know from a direct HSE source that in CUH at least every admission is tested.

It's not the same in every hospital so, source: relative that was admitted for kidney problem in the last two weeks.

CalamariFritti · 05-08-2020 02:23PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I agree studies are useful.
I agree we shouldn't panic.
I don't agree with you that this is like other viruses.
Because we don't know yet. It's novel.

Saying we need to get back to normal and isolate the vulnerable is not a prudent strategy
if this thing leaves invisible irreparable damage that manifests years later.
Anybody saying it's normal and we have to live with it doesn't understand it.

"We should try to avoid being infected”
For many different reasons.

https://twitter.com/TeunkeA/status/1290696935633018886?s=20

But trying to avoid getting infected, isn't that just going to drag it out much longer?

Since this virus can't be contained we're all going to get exposed to it sooner or later. Its inevitable *. So now its a question of how thats going to unfold, right?

We let it go through the population too quickly we have too many acute cases that we cant treat properly and people die.

We let it go through too slowly we will be in perpetual lockdown limbo for a very very long time.

Should the strategy not be to let it go through the population in a controlled manner but as quickly as possible - as quickly as our health service capacity allows us to?

* I know there are people here - some of them very active and should know better at this point - who think this thing can be eradicated. But I don't think that's in any way realistic and its not supported by science either. Except for some mad people like Mr Killeen.

GooglePlus · 05-08-2020 02:24PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I know from a direct HSE source that in CUH at least every admission is tested.

So CUH must have a very low admission rate overall then if suspected cases are counted until tests return and they test everyone on admission?

Surely the figures you mentioned earlier would be much higher, if that's not the case.

YellowBucket · 05-08-2020 02:26PM

Realistically, it’s too dangerous to do what you’re describing unless there were a reliable treatment for COVID-19 and there simply isn’t evidence that it’s triggering strong immunity.

A vaccine seems to be the only potential exit from this.
Bare in mind that a vaccine can be designed to trigger immunity more strongly than just getting the virus and hoping for the best.

Boggles · 05-08-2020 02:26PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Should the strategy not be to let it go through the population in a controlled manner but as quickly as possible - as quickly as our health service capacity allows us to?

No.

How would such a fine line be thread?

Also there is far more reaching negative consequences to just letting it burn through than just "more people dying".

seanb85 · 05-08-2020 02:29PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

So CUH must have a very low admission rate overall then if suspected cases are counted until tests return and they test everyone on admission?

Surely the figures you mentioned earlier would be much higher, if that's not the case.

They have 36 on trolleys today, so a very busy hospital at the moment. Hospital testing is very quick though.

wadacrack · 05-08-2020 02:29PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

But trying to avoid getting infected, isn't that just going to drag it out much longer?

Since this virus can't be contained we're all going to get exposed to it sooner or later. Its inevitable *. So now its a question of how thats going to unfold, right?

We let it go through the population too quickly we have too many acute cases that we cant treat properly and people die.

We let it go through too slowly we will be in perpetual lockdown limbo for a very very long time.

Should the strategy not be to let it go through the population in a controlled manner but as quickly as possible - as quickly as our health service capacity allows us to?

* I know there are people here - some of them very active and should know better at this point - who think this thing can be eradicated. But I don't think that's in any way realistic and its not supported by science either. Except for some mad people like Mr Killeen.

If it can be surpressed to virtually zero community transmission in a region. Then it can be eliminated. The Lockdown/successful suppression of the virus clearly shows that its possible. People have been re-infected so letting it go through the community would be irresponsible.

fr336 · 05-08-2020 02:30PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I thought i’d post something a little positive due to the miserable auld weather outside, also which i’m personally delighted about.

A man i know 85 years old, a few ailments, heart and some lung issues contracted Covid 19 while in hospital having a procedure.

He was lucky to only have a slight temp, bit of a cough and “ didn’t feel right”. He made a full recovery. That was last March and he told me today he feels good with no after effects.

It’s not always a death sentence for the vulnerable. He told me the doctors had passed comment that people on blood thinners were less likely to get seriously ill. I have no way of backing that up but found it an interesting comment.

Yes I've heard that about the blood thinners quite a bit now. But as with anything regards this virus, we just don't know how each of us will react to it. It's a bloody nuisance to say the least...

briany · 05-08-2020 02:31PM

Boggles wrote: »

No.

How would such a fine line be thread?

Also there is far more reaching negative consequences to just letting it burn through than just "more people dying".

There, there, little Gavin.

It's alright.

Your grandmother was 77. She was very old and led a long and full life.

Stop crying and dry your tears. Know that the weak perish and strong survive.

Herd immunity will be reached and our blessed reward will be 7 pints down the pub.

political analyst · 05-08-2020 02:32PM

Why are governments not listening to Professor Sunetra Gupta, whose theory has been discussed in many forums, and Dr Michael Levitt, who told the Sunday Indo last weekend that Ireland is "done with Covid"? Why are there analyses not being given more prominence? People are fed up with governments' 'virtue-signalling'.

CalamariFritti · 05-08-2020 02:32PM

wadacrack wrote: »

If it can be surpressed to virtually zero community transmission in a region. Then it can be eliminated. The Lockdown/successful suppression of the virus clearly shows that its possible. People have been re-infected so letting it go through the community would be irresponsible.

But then its back the moment you come out of lockdown. Unless you bunker yourself in which is simply not realistic.

Boggles · 05-08-2020 02:34PM

political analyst wrote: »

Why are governments not listening to Professor Sunetra Gupta, whose theory has been discussed in many forums, and Dr Michael Levitt, who told the Sunday Indo last weekend that Ireland is "done with Covid"? Why are there analyses not being given more prominence? People are fed up with governments' 'virtue-signalling'.

Because Michael underestimated our population size by 3 fold would be my guess.

wadacrack · 05-08-2020 02:36PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

But then its back the moment you come out of lockdown. Unless you bunker yourself in which is simply not realistic.

If every country followed a certain model, it could work in a number of weeks in certain regions. With a sophisticated plan it could be feasible. 90 min test results may help alot in the future, making the test.trace isolate even more effective

LiquidZeb · 05-08-2020 02:36PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

But trying to avoid getting infected, isn't that just going to drag it out much longer?

Since this virus can't be contained we're all going to get exposed to it sooner or later. Its inevitable *. So now its a question of how thats going to unfold, right?

We let it go through the population too quickly we have too many acute cases that we cant treat properly and people die.

We let it go through too slowly we will be in perpetual lockdown limbo for a very very long time.

Should the strategy not be to let it go through the population in a controlled manner but as quickly as possible - as quickly as our health service capacity allows us to?

* I know there are people here - some of them very active and should know better at this point - who think this thing can be eradicated. But I don't think that's in any way realistic and its not supported by science either. Except for some mad people like Mr Killeen.

Dead right with that last point. The government should be making policies and decisions under the belief there won't ever be a vaccine. While I do believe there will be one the government can't afford to base important policy on something intangible that might never come.

political analyst · 05-08-2020 02:37PM

Boggles wrote: »

Because Michael underestimated our population size by 3 fold would be my guess.

What do you think of Sunetra Gupta's theory?

UrbanFret · 05-08-2020 02:39PM

Good program.on channel 4 last night about the hunt for a vaccine. You'd be fairly optimistic after watching it that the Oxford university candidate will be rolled out before the end of the year. That will be the game changer. Hopefully not a black adder moment " we survived it, the great war 1914-1917"

wadacrack · 05-08-2020 02:39PM

political analyst wrote: »

Why are governments not listening to Professor Sunetra Gupta, whose theory has been discussed in many forums, and Dr Michael Levitt, who told the Sunday Indo last weekend that Ireland is "done with Covid"? Why are there analyses not being given more prominence? People are fed up with governments' 'virtue-signalling'.

Because they are just just theories. Their is no scientific evidence to back up anything they are saying. T-cell immunity is not fully understood by scientists in any context. It woul'dnt be wise for any government to take that risk and ignore what is actually happening in a number of countries. It hasn't gone well for Sweden who have made the presumption on herd immunity. Their are too many unknowns at the moment to take those sort of risks.

CalamariFritti · 05-08-2020 02:43PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Because they are just just theories. Their is no scientific evidence to back up anything they are saying. T-cell immunity is not fully understood by scientists in any context. It woul'dnt be wise for any government to take that risk and ignore what is actually happening in a number of countries. It hasn't gone well for Sweden who have made the presumption on herd immunity. Their are too many unknowns at the moment to take those sort of risks.

I agree that there are risks and nobody likes those but I don't agree that Sweden's approach isn't going well for them. They're doing no worse than us and there are indications that they will not see a resurgence like other countries do.

LiquidZeb · 05-08-2020 02:47PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I agree that there are risks and nobody likes those but I don't agree that Sweden's approach isn't going well for them. They're doing no worse than us and there are indications that they will not see a resurgence like other countries do.

I think Sweden has been unfairly mislabeled as some sort of heartless great Satan in all this. I wonder what the post match analysis of ours and other countries decisions will be in a decades time

CalamariFritti · 05-08-2020 02:47PM

wadacrack wrote: »

If every country followed a certain model, it could work in a number of weeks in certain regions. With a sophisticated plan it could be feasible. 90 min test results may help alot in the future, making the test.trace isolate even more effective

I agree that it may be possible with a game changer - a super quick test may be that. But you still have the problem of vastly different levels of development. If there was a "spit on it see result 5 minutes later" test that would be a game changer in Europe and other developed areas and could eradicate the virus simply through testing and isolating. But thats not an option for the entire globe I fear. Less developed countries will simply not have the resources for that, no?

jill_valentine · 05-08-2020 02:48PM

political analyst wrote: »

Why are governments not listening to Professor Sunetra Gupta, whose theory has been discussed in many forums, and Dr Michael Levitt, who told the Sunday Indo last weekend that Ireland is "done with Covid"? Why are there analyses not being given more prominence? People are fed up with governments' 'virtue-signalling'.

Levitt's the chap who once posted a model requiring the dead to rise. He also expects the US to be "done with Covid" in about two weeks. Their analyses have been given far too much prominence considering they're constantly wrong.

growleaves · 05-08-2020 02:49PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/nypost/status/1289139005955674112

Will anyone here be wearing swimming goggles to the supermarket?

ACitizenErased · 05-08-2020 02:52PM

political analyst wrote: »

Why are governments not listening to Professor Sunetra Gupta, whose theory has been discussed in many forums, and Dr Michael Levitt, who told the Sunday Indo last weekend that Ireland is "done with Covid"? Why are there analyses not being given more prominence? People are fed up with governments' 'virtue-signalling'.

I think the UK's 'scientific' approach gave our lads a bit of a scare.

political analyst · 05-08-2020 02:52PM

As far as I know, the only major difference between this virus - known as SARS CoV 2 - and SARS CoV 1, which broke out in East Asia in 2002, is the length of the incubation period.

So why is it that, after 7 months examining the virus, there is a lot of things that scientists still don't know about the virus?

After all, the symptoms of this pandemic and the 2002 outbreak seem to be the same, so it can't be as difficult to deal with as HIV!

ACitizenErased · 05-08-2020 02:52PM

UrbanFret wrote: »

Good program.on channel 4 last night about the hunt for a vaccine. You'd be fairly optimistic after watching it that the Oxford university candidate will be rolled out before the end of the year. That will be the game changer. Hopefully not a black adder moment " we survived it, the great war 1914-1917"

It was a fantastic show. Luke O'Neill from Trinity is a great speaker, I thought he was brilliant on it. Oxford is looking good for October approval as far as I can see.

boggerman1 · 05-08-2020 02:52PM

growleaves wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/nypost/status/1289139005955674112

Will anyone here be wearing swimming goggles to the supermarket?

Face mask,check,..goggles,check..ear plugs cause the virus might get in through your ears,check.feck it altogether why not go full hazmat suit altogether.

US2 · 05-08-2020 02:55PM

political analyst wrote: »

As far as I know, the only major difference between this virus - known as SARS CoV 2 - and SARS CoV 1, which broke out in East Asia in 2002, is the length of the incubation period.

So why is it that, after 7 months examining the virus, there is a lot of things that scientists still don't know about the virus?

After all, the symptoms of this pandemic and the 2002 outbreak seem to be the same, so it can't be as difficult to deal with as HIV!

Sars cov1 was ALOT more deadly. Dont think there was any asymptomatic cases reported with Cov1

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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