Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

JP Liz V1 · 02-08-2020 04:31PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Have you a link to the Article?Cathal has two posts on his page about the precautionary closeure.

I can take a picture of the article and attach upload if it works

JP Liz V1 · 02-08-2020 04:36PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I wouldnt believe a thing from the Sunday World. The only thing they are good at is sensationalising rubbish.

That could be said for all media, they all like sensationalism

JP Liz V1 · 02-08-2020 04:46PM

I'm trying to upload but too large and damn boards is awful today trying to post

Gruffalux · 02-08-2020 04:46PM

The 2 metre thing, the 105 minutes thing, the 50 people thing - these are all just pragmatic efforts to reduce infection numbers when a spreader is about. They are not actual preventatives in individual cases.
13 people getting it in a pub - or a meat factory, or choir, or construction site - is not a freak thing - it is simply and reasonably because it is a contagious virus and if someone in the space has it others around them are likely to get it from them. There is no shield around you if you are 2 metres away in a pub, or 10 metres, or sitting at a table, or having nachos. The reason you will not get it in such a setting is if there is not a person with the virus there, or if there is, you will not get it if you are lucky not to breathe in aerosol particles or touch the surfaces and then your mouth/nose/eyes that the person with the virus has touched or if you have some kind of immunity. It is not magic.
That does not mean people cannot accept risk and live their lives as they want to for the moment - but it cannot be described as a freak incident if it spreads in a pub, or school, or hairdressers, or meat plant etc ad infinitum, it is perfectly logical for it to likely spread if a person in that space has it.

s1ippy · 02-08-2020 04:50PM

https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland

Some projections, because the positivity in here makes me sick

Nah just an interesting curve forming which would make you wonder about the next week or so. I guess we'll see in an hour's time, do we get our usual weekend drop-off or is the high positivity rate again.

The sunshine is gorgeous when it's around though and the few home brewed beers are very welcome. Hope everyone is having a nice bank holiday

Ficheall · 02-08-2020 04:51PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I keep hearing this that people are not following the guidelines, I must live and work in the only part of the country where the majority do follow the guidelines.

It's not like you don't have form for lying about your personal experience to try and enforce your point though.

JP Liz V1 · 02-08-2020 04:53PM

I'd say Fianna Fail will keep pubs closed longer as schools reopening is their priority but what young kids will stay 2m from their friends and wear masks, some schools have large class numbers in small rooms

Widdensushi · 02-08-2020 04:56PM

s1ippy wrote: »

https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland

Some projections, because the positivity in here makes me sick

Nah just an interesting curve forming which would make you wonder about the next week or so. I guess we'll see in an hour's time, do we get our usual weekend drop-off or is the high positivity rate again.

The sunshine is gorgeous when it's around though and the few home brewed beers are very welcome. Hope everyone is having a nice bank holiday

You already know that it's going to be around 60 cases

ACitizenErased · 02-08-2020 04:58PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

You already know that it's going to be around 60 cases

Its likely to be in the 40-60 range for the next week or so

fritzelly · 02-08-2020 05:02PM

s1ippy wrote: »

https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland

Some projections, because the positivity in here makes me sick

Nah just an interesting curve forming which would make you wonder about the next week or so. I guess we'll see in an hour's time, do we get our usual weekend drop-off or is the high positivity rate again.

The sunshine is gorgeous when it's around though and the few home brewed beers are very welcome. Hope everyone is having a nice bank holiday

That site has never been accurate with its projections

JP Liz V1 · 02-08-2020 05:02PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Its likely to be in the 40-60 range for the next week or so

Per Day or Per Week?

podgeandrodge · 02-08-2020 05:03PM

Gruffalox wrote: »

The 2 metre thing, the 105 minutes thing, the 50 people thing - these are all just pragmatic efforts to reduce infection numbers when a spreader is about. They are not actual preventatives in individual cases.
13 people getting it in a pub - or a meat factory, or choir, or construction site - is not a freak thing - it is simply and reasonably because it is a contagious virus and if someone in the space has it others around them are likely to get it from them. There is no shield around you if you are 2 metres away in a pub, or 10 metres, or sitting at a table, or having nachos. The reason you will not get it in such a setting is if there is not a person with the virus there, or if there is, you will not get it if you are lucky not to breathe in aerosol particles or touch the surfaces and then your mouth/nose/eyes that the person with the virus has touched or if you have some kind of immunity. It is not magic.
That does not mean people cannot accept risk and live their lives as they want to for the moment - but it cannot be described as a freak incident if it spreads in a pub, or school, or hairdressers, or meat plant etc ad infinitum, it is perfectly logical for it to likely spread if a person in that space has it.

I'd be inclined to agree with you that 'freak incident' may not be the best way to describe it, somebody had it and somebody spread it, and there's no getting away from that possibility, but we have to live and part of living, for me anyway, is going to the pub! But officials did suggest it was not down to sloppy abidance of the correct procedures.

Scotland's national clinical director said "But this virus just needs a moment to jump across a household. So it's an individual responsibility as well as a business responsibility to take that enormously seriously." That's true - and seeing some people in pubs not making any effort to cover a cough or sneeze does annoy me, I don't get the lack of personal responsibility in some.

You're wrong about the nachos though.

What Username Guidelines · 02-08-2020 05:10PM

Arghus wrote: »

I can't take anything Michael Levitt says about the situation seriously. When he first appeared on the scene, I was inclined to hear him out, he was after all, a Nobel Prize winner, but when you looked at his conclusions it was hard to escape the verdict that he was wrong.

His first argument was that the virus burned itself out, etc, etc, no need for lock downs etc, etc. But he seemed to totally fail to account for lockdowns having any role to play in controlling numbers. The numbers falling indicated that the "virus" burned itself out, but he took no account of countermeasures that were in existence to try to ensure numbers eventually fell. What?

It was huge blindspot in his analysis. A very obvious one.

He had nothing to say about the resurgence of cases in the US. Nothing. I'm sure you'll be searching a long time to find quotes from him about Brazil.

And lo and behold, he's back. With completely wrong maths, completely made up claims about immunity and exposure to the virus and, best of all, his advice to just let the next outbreaks rip.Jesus Christ.

C'mon, he might be a smart man, but on this he's really dumb.

Levitt's theory is that the virus doesnt hit exponential growth and that all the predictions of 85,000 dead were wrong. He said lockdowns may delay outbreaks but there's no escaping the virus, and that places hit 'saturation' at about 500 dead per million people as an average across each population, some will be higher, some lower. I believe he looks at the US as separate states rather than a single country, so new york has hit that threshold, etc, but other places are on the way up. Btw, Brazil is at 440/m, Ireland is at 357/m. NY state though is at 1,685/m, so a massive outlier in terms of his ~500 range.

I was more interesting in hearing theories on Iran and Israel with second surges, which he claims were caused by locking down and opening up again before hitting any sort of saturation point.

He is now showing that a lot of places are back below average deaths per population, citing Sweden as the 'control' - i.e. if they didnt lock down, why are bodies not piling up. Sweden is trending way down and is next to Italy on the deaths/million chart.

So when he says 'let it rip' he's not expecting it to burn through the entire population, but it will act like a normal viral season and is arguing that closing society is far more damaging for mental health purposes, economics, etc.

What piqued my interest was the curve of deaths in Sweden very closely matches those in UK, Ireland, Italy, Spain, etc. Ireland has had 4 deaths in the last two weeks, while tragic and obviously hard on their families, there has also been >1,000 deaths in the last two weeks from other causes.

I'm not saying I fully agree or believe him btw, but I wouldn't fully rubbish his opinion on it. He is looking purely at the mathematics of the pandemic. The part I don't get is how he predicts at what point saturation is.

podgeandrodge · 02-08-2020 05:12PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Levitt's theory is that the virus doesnt hit exponential growth and that all the predictions of 85,000 dead were wrong. He said lockdowns may delay outbreaks but there's no escaping the virus, and that places hit 'saturation' at about 500 dead per million people as an average across each population, some will be higher, some lower. I believe he looks at the US as separate states rather than a single country, so new york has hit that threshold, etc, but other places are on the way up. Btw, Brazil is at 440/m, Ireland is at 357/m. NY state though is at 1,685/m, so a massive outlier in terms of his ~500 range.

I was more interesting in hearing theories on Iran and Israel with second surges, which he claims were caused by locking down and opening up again before hitting any sort of saturation point.

He is now showing that a lot of places are back below average deaths per population, citing Sweden as the 'control' - i.e. if they didnt lock down, why are bodies not piling up. Sweden is trending way down and is next to Italy on the deaths/million chart.

So when he says 'let it rip' he's not expecting it to burn through the entire population, but it will act like a normal viral season and is arguing that closing society is far more damaging for mental health purposes, economics, etc.

What piqued my interest was the curve of deaths in Sweden very closely matches those in UK, Ireland, Italy, Spain, etc. Ireland has had 4 deaths in the last two weeks, while tragic and obviously hard on their families, there has also been >1,000 deaths in the last two weeks from other causes.

I'm not saying I fully agree or believe him btw, but I wouldn't fully rubbish his opinion on it. He is looking purely at the mathematics of the pandemic. The part I don't get is how he predicts at what point saturation is.

Thanks for the summary, it's an interesting situation.

What Username Guidelines · 02-08-2020 05:15PM

Gruffalox wrote: »

The 2 metre thing, the 105 minutes thing, the 50 people thing - these are all just pragmatic efforts to reduce infection numbers when a spreader is about. They are not actual preventatives in individual cases.

Exactly, so many don't understand that these are public health measures. All of them are there first and foremost to slow the spread, not stop the spread completely, and are in the interest of public health as opposed to individual health. All this talk of 'pods' etc is fine, but if someone in your pod gets it, it'll spread around easily. Health officials know this, and can handle it, the health system can too. But if everyone is at gigs, offices, shopping, in pubs, etc, it spreads faster and has potential to overload hospital systems.

Scoondal · 02-08-2020 05:16PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Do I need to provide my PPS number to post on the thread

Not at the moment. Perhaps in the near future that will be required for the authorities.

02-08-2020 05:18PM

s1ippy wrote: »

https://covid19.healthdata.org/ireland

Some projections, because the positivity in here makes me sick

Nah just an interesting curve forming which would make you wonder about the next week or so. I guess we'll see in an hour's time, do we get our usual weekend drop-off or is the high positivity rate again.

The sunshine is gorgeous when it's around though and the few home brewed beers are very welcome. Hope everyone is having a nice bank holiday

Couple of points. That site, while making interesting charts has not been at all accurate, both under and over estimating at various points. And secondly - if we as a country reach November with just over 2,000 deaths, things are not going too badly.

The thing that some of the realists on here understand is that cases and deaths will continue to happen. But what we see now is an excellent track system that is catching lots of outbreaks rather than leaving the asymptomatic and very mildly symptomatic to spread the virus unchecked. The most important thing that we can do to help is to be aware of our contacts, be aware of our symptoms - to not leave the house if you think you may be coming down with symptoms and arrange a test ASAP. This is how Korea dealt with it, and is the gold standard model, but even they are having outbreaks and ripples in the numbers

Plumbthedepths · 02-08-2020 05:18PM

Ficheall wrote: »

It's not like you don't have form for lying about your personal experience to try and enforce your point though.

I don't need to reinforce any point. My home town and county have had some of the lowest infection rates in the country which to me demonstrates that measures people take are working . Similarly the company I work for has had no workplace related cases.
Of course though why address a comment when it's so much easier to have a go at the poster. It's actually getting old at this stage.
Any valid observations yourself?

bb1234567 · 02-08-2020 05:25PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Levitt's theory is that the virus doesnt hit exponential growth and that all the predictions of 85,000 dead were wrong. He said lockdowns may delay outbreaks but there's no escaping the virus, and that places hit 'saturation' at about 500 dead per million people as an average across each population, some will be higher, some lower. I believe he looks at the US as separate states rather than a single country, so new york has hit that threshold, etc, but other places are on the way up. Btw, Brazil is at 440/m, Ireland is at 357/m. NY state though is at 1,685/m, so a massive outlier in terms of his ~500 range.

I was more interesting in hearing theories on Iran and Israel with second surges, which he claims were caused by locking down and opening up again before hitting any sort of saturation point.

He is now showing that a lot of places are back below average deaths per population, citing Sweden as the 'control' - i.e. if they didnt lock down, why are bodies not piling up. Sweden is trending way down and is next to Italy on the deaths/million chart.

So when he says 'let it rip' he's not expecting it to burn through the entire population, but it will act like a normal viral season and is arguing that closing society is far more damaging for mental health purposes, economics, etc.

What piqued my interest was the curve of deaths in Sweden very closely matches those in UK, Ireland, Italy, Spain, etc. Ireland has had 4 deaths in the last two weeks, while tragic and obviously hard on their families, there has also been >1,000 deaths in the last two weeks from other causes.

I'm not saying I fully agree or believe him btw, but I wouldn't fully rubbish his opinion on it. He is looking purely at the mathematics of the pandemic. The part I don't get is how he predicts at what point saturation is.

Yes it's interesting I noticed that too that a lot of countries seem to all hit roughly around 500 deaths per million and then taper off. Already in a lot of latin American countries it looks like they will mostly end up falling somewhere within this range , this trend is clear in countries such as Chile, Peru and Mexico, Panama and Ecuador.

This is also remarkably consistent across a lot of populations even in Africa it looks as though South Africa's pandemic is predicted to finish with about 500 deaths per milion as well. Which is odd given the young population , perhaps poor healthcare balances out what benefits a youthful population hold.

Although Brazil and USA appear to be exceptions to this rule, both are approaching 500 deaths per million with no end in sight really to their epidemics,as we know it is still accelerating in much of USA but in Brazilian states outside of Rio and Sao Paulo the epidemic is still getting worse rather than better. I wouldn't be surprised if both hit almost 1000 deaths per million during the winter time.

timsey tiger · 02-08-2020 05:29PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Yes it's interesting I noticed that too that a lot of countries seem to all hit roughly around 500 deaths per million and then taper off. Already in a lot of latin American countries it looks like they will mostly end up falling somewhere within this range , this trend is clear in countries such as Chile, Peru and Mexico, Panama and Ecuador.

This is also remarkably consistent across a lot of populations even in Africa it looks as though South Africa's pandemic is predicted to finish with about 500 deaths per milion as well. Which is odd given the young population , perhaps poor healthcare balances out what benefits a youthful population hold.

Although Brazil and USA appear to be exceptions to this rule, both are approaching 500 deaths per million with no end in sight really to their epidemics,as we know it is still accelerating in much of USA but in Brazilian states outside of Rio and Sao Paulo the epidemic is still getting worse rather than better. I wouldn't be surprised if both hit almost 1000 deaths per million during the winter time.

That's called confirmation bias.

petes · 02-08-2020 05:30PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I don't need to reinforce any point. My home town and county have had some of the lowest infection rates in the country which to me demonstrates that measures people take are working . Similarly the company I work for has had no workplace related cases.
Of course though why address a comment when it's so much easier to have a go at the poster. It's actually getting old at this stage.
Any valid observations yourself?

Why not just address the lie rather than skip over it so?

If you were indeed lying to further your own point (s) then anything you say after is going to be thought of as not the whole truth, that is unless it's addressed of course.

schmoo2k · 02-08-2020 05:31PM

The Unbearables wrote: »

13 people test positive after visiting a bar in Scotland. Terrible.

Yup and why its not on the green list!

bb1234567 · 02-08-2020 05:33PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

That's called confirmation bias.

Perhaps, I just said it was interesting , I don't necessarily believe the theory is correct.

I think there are other strong indicators that the virus won't burn out without leaving a very destructive trail in it's wake.

For example, the COVID outbreak has now been recognised as the most deadly event in Brazilian history- with 8x times more people dying in Rio in 2020 so far than a typical year.Making it the most affected city on earth after Bergamo, even worse than New York city.

https://brazilian.report/society/2020/06/24/rio-de-janeiro-sees-eight-times-more-deaths-in-2020/

stephenjmcd · 02-08-2020 05:35PM

https://twitter.com/irishexaminer/status/1289952677321830401?s=19

bodhrandude · 02-08-2020 05:35PM

schmoo2k wrote: »

Yup and why its not on the green list!

Why so, Scotland is not England, they have had a very good record so far, this is the first report from Scotland in a while.

schmoo2k · 02-08-2020 05:39PM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Why so, Scotland is not England, they have had a very good record so far, this is the first report from Scotland in a while.

I agree with your point (and wish the Spanish Islands where treated separately to Spain as well).

Plumbthedepths · 02-08-2020 05:46PM

petes wrote: »

Why not just address the lie rather than skip over it so?

If you were indeed lying to further your own point (s) then anything you say after is going to be thought of as not the whole truth, that is unless it's addressed of course.

I guess I'm one of those people who don't believe gravitas on an anonymous internet site is all that important.
I didn't address your question the previous times you asked , so in keeping with my previous behaviour I won't be addressing it now.
So if you don't mind I'll stick with the topic.

petes · 02-08-2020 05:47PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I guess I'm one of those people who don't believe gravitas on an anonymous internet site is all that important.
I didn't address your question the previous times you asked , so in keeping with my previous behaviour I won't be addressing it now.
So if you don't mind I'll stick with the topic.

Completely fine, thanks for the admission.

bodhrandude · 02-08-2020 05:50PM

Citizen any case numbers today or positive results?

ACitizenErased · 02-08-2020 05:52PM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Citizen any case numbers today or positive results?

neither, cases arent out yet and no positive tests on sundays

Covid 19 Part XX-26,644 in ROI (1,772 deaths) 6,064 in NI (556 deaths) (08/08)Read OP

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