Mass exodus to Dairying !!!

Timmaay · 10-07-2020 1:25pm

alps wrote: »

If you're going into dairying with a long term outlook, you will have to be prepared to chase that ever increasing scale model that is now set here.

A basic rule of economics states you can't fight technical progress, as efficiency improves yields and herd sizes will go up, and the number of cows that one man can handle goes up also. The key thing is that this happens at a sustainable level, ie slow and steady. The faster it happens the more boom and bust in nature the whole process becomes, which is in the interest of nobody. We are lucky that the well done lowly borrowed 100 cow farm is still a good viable business for one family in Ireland still, as the years roll by that will absolutely increase to 120/140 cows, but as long as technology improves it will hopefully mean the same actual workload for the farmer. But if it hugely increases pace and we start seeing only 250 cow farms being viable then we are in trouble.

Grueller · 10-07-2020 1:51pm

mahoney_j wrote: »

Slightly underpaid ....the powers that be in bord bia tegasc etc keep feeding us tripe about our supposed huge advantage grass based dairying gives us and out clean green low carbon produce (that’s true).reality is we’re paid screwed for producing milk this way when u look at indoor systems in most of rest of world ,all receiving far better price than us

True, but I didn't want to open that debate here.

Mossie1975 · 10-07-2020 2:02pm

BIL started milking last year and is happy he made the change.

patsy_mccabe · 10-07-2020 5:03pm

How did an exodus out of beef turn into an exodus out of dairying.

10-07-2020 5:13pm

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

How did an exodus out of beef turn into an exodus out of dairying.

Sheep are taking over :eek:

farawaygrass · 10-07-2020 9:38pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Sheep are taking over :eek:

I only said it at work today, too many lads thinking of buying a few ewes now

amacca · 10-07-2020 10:34pm

farawaygrass wrote: »

I only said it at work today, too many lads thinking of buying a few ewes now

I dont like sheep and I was just thinking theres not much money to be made in jumping from one enterprise to another too often (if you cant afford to have a finger dipped in every pie that is)

One things for sure I dont think I could stick dairying for long if it wasn't profitable.

richie123 · 11-07-2020 2:54pm

djmc wrote: »

I was dairying in kerry myself for 20 years with around 60 cows and just got out in 2016 after the quotas went. No hope of expanding on my farm and felt I had enough of 7 day a week hardship for one lifetime.
I know farmers around too with childern not interested in taking over the dairy farm. I know its different in some areas where lads have access to good land longside their own farm

Was there no opportunity to get in relief milkers at the weekend ?to give you a break.
I know of one dairy man never milks on a sunday.and takes every second wknd off.

20silkcut · 11-07-2020 4:28pm

Good few farmers getting out of dairying too especially one man operations.
It is some advantage to have reliable help be it a father/son or family member or reliable dependable worker.
I often thought of going down that route myself as I have the setup here for it with roadways , paddocks and milking parlour etc but I am completely on my own just myself.
You definitely need someone else around the place in my opinion.
Even with the few cattle I have it has cost me dearly over the years being a one man part time operation.

carrollsno1 · 11-07-2020 5:28pm

20silkcut wrote: »

Good few farmers getting out of dairying too especially one man operations.
It is some advantage to have reliable help be it a father/son or family member or reliable dependable worker.
I often thought of going down that route myself as I have the setup here for it with roadways , paddocks and milking parlour etc but I am completely on my own just myself.
You definitely need someone else around the place in my opinion.
Even with the few cattle I have it has cost me dearly over the years being a one man part time operation.

I suppose thats the advantage of dairying, youd be full time. Cant understand part time farming really anymore just see the auld boy at it and he has no life from it, says hes making a bit at it but wont spend a few bob to make life easier on himself so thats his own doing. I havent the time to help him anymore and i havent the gra for it anymore either as all I see if i go down that route is f#cking around every Saturday and Sunday as well as every morning and evening during the week. If i got the place in the morning id set most of it to the dairy farmer next door and keep the bit around the yard and set it up well the way I have a minimal workload all year round and if I was on site for work and needed to get a mate in to throw an eye on the place during the week thats all theyd have to do.

K.G. · 11-07-2020 7:00pm

I dont know is this thread pointless
The fact is if tou know what you doing and are a.little lucky you will do well out of cows.
If on the other hand you have management issues ans are a little un lucky you will have no money.
Cows and indeed beef has become like pigs ,the.margin is becoming small and the numbers are starting to grow so if its a plus number youre in business but if its a.minus number you ll go broke.
As regards the future i dont know but i do know we cant compete with other countries for indoor milk with thwir maize production and various feeds available except for grass. Gawd often alludes to his lower feed costs and availability. If grass cant compete we re goosed.people often talk about the race to the bottom its actually just the race to survive.

kerryjack · 11-07-2020 7:36pm

You have to have the numbers and you have to be able to take time off from them. I milked for 30 years and very rearly missed a milking and you do get sick of it. OH was working away at other profession and could have easily afforded to bring someone in to do some relief milking.

kk.man · 11-07-2020 7:40pm

kerryjack wrote: »

You have to have the numbers and you have to be able to take time off from them. I milked for 30 years and very rearly missed a milking and you do get sick of it. OH was working away at other profession and could have easily afforded to bring someone in to do some relief milking.

My BIL says the same he milked all his life and generations before him. He be a big operator but says most lads don't know what they are getting into. He has no plans to stop anytime soon but recons he will be old and stiff long before his time.

amacca · 11-07-2020 8:50pm

K.G. wrote: »

Cows and indeed beef has become like pigs ,the.margin is becoming small and the numbers are starting to grow so if its a plus number youre in business but if its a.minus number you ll go broke.
As regards the future i dont know but i do know we cant compete with other countries for indoor milk with thwir maize production and various feeds available except for grass. Gawd often alludes to his lower feed costs and availability. If grass cant compete we re goosed.people often talk about the race to the bottom its actually just the race to survive.

I'm of the opinion unless you are a well set up large operator that looks a costs etc you are destined to be a busy fool chasing numbers in beef .... I say this with some experience of being such a fool ....its v.tempting to go to a farm walk etc look at a profit per head figure and then start chasing the max output.....at best I broke even vs stocking to well below what requires excessive inputs in terms of fertiliser, silage, meal and increased veterinary costs etc etc and that's before you start considering the hours and hours sunk into labour (for nothing or minus money as I used to bitterly call it in my head for a couple of years)

Yes the place looks nice and thems savage cattle but really what's the point of producing to the max when you are not getting paid ....much happier with less stock, much less running around/labour and able to hold on and not be forced to sell (well sort of - they still have you by the balls sometimes with their spurious 30 month limit)and no huge difference in bottom line when you account for reduced inputs eyc .....its somewhat different in dairying no doubt and good luck to those in dairying but I'd be keeping a a watchful eye your not being driven to being food producing slaves too.

K9 · 11-07-2020 9:06pm

Was watching one of the videos from grange this week, where one of the speakers said that there’s half the number of dairy farmers now than 20 years ago. Beef farmer numbers are the same as 20 years ago.
Just shows how dairy farmers have scaled up during the years. The majority doing so by excluding beef from their farms.
Say what you like about maximising output but if average dairy cow numbers on farms were the same as sucklers (17 I think) they would be less profitable than suckler farms. Esb alone would take a fair chunk of it

Birdnuts · 11-07-2020 9:16pm

K9 wrote: »

Was watching one of the videos from grange this week, where one of the speakers said that there’s half the number of dairy farmers now than 20 years ago. Beef farmer numbers are the same as 20 years ago.
Just shows how dairy farmers have scaled up during the years. The majority doing so by excluding beef from their farms.
Say what you like about maximising output but if average dairy cow numbers on farms were the same as sucklers (17 I think) they would be less profitable than suckler farms. Esb alone would take a fair chunk of it

Dairy appears to be going down the path of pork and poultry in this country - bigger, more intensive(State agencies still pushing the "Kiwi" model) etc. but as shure as night follows day margins will continue to tighten with inevitable results down the line.

einn32 · 11-07-2020 9:36pm

Birdnuts wrote: »

Dairy appears to be going down the path of pork and poultry in this country - bigger, more intensive(State agencies still pushing the "Kiwi" model) etc. but as shure as night follows day margins will continue to tighten with inevitable results down the line.

I know around my home place there is one man milking 50 cows on 100 acres of tough land in a wet year and does all his own machinery work and repairs. In his 50's. Another lad is milking 80 cows with his brother in their 50's. He probably has close to 200 acres. They just do the milking really now and said to me once he stopped investing a few years ago. He is in his 50's too. Then another guy is working full time and his parents milk for him during the week. He put a lot of money in to the farm. He is probably in his 40's milking 100 cows maybe. The rest is all minimal stocked beef farms. There is a few big operations further away but I don't know anyone who has converted to dairy. In fact it has mostly been people who milked for years selling out and going to minimal stocked beef.

whelan2 · 11-07-2020 9:52pm

Birdnuts wrote: »

Dairy appears to be going down the path of pork and poultry in this country - bigger, more intensive(State agencies still pushing the "Kiwi" model) etc. but as shure as night follows day margins will continue to tighten with inevitable results down the line.

Same was being said 10 years ago.

alps · 11-07-2020 9:54pm

Birdnuts wrote: »

Dairy appears to be going down the path of pork and poultry in this country - bigger, more intensive(State agencies still pushing the "Kiwi" model) etc. but as shure as night follows day margins will continue to tighten with inevitable results down the line.

This is showing up to be the case. All new milk is carrying an actual labour and land cost none of which was included in either the "home accounts" or the profit monitor...

Milk now produced at full economic cost is a really tight game and worryingly is getting tighter because competition is driving cost.

Dairy farmers, all over the world, have proven to have the enate ability to always drive costs up to and beyond the price of their product.

awaywithyou · 11-07-2020 10:30pm

alps wrote: »

This is showing up to be the case. All new milk is carrying an actual labour and land cost none of which was included in either the "home accounts" or the profit monitor...

Milk now produced at full economic cost is a really tight game and worryingly is getting tighter because competition is driving cost.

Dairy farmers, all over the world, have proven to have the enate ability to always drive costs up to and beyond the price of their product.

there are plenty of lads doing well out of cows... and most of em are guys who havent gone down the more more more route....

have to say i was a bit shocked to b told that Bill oKeeffe has abandoned the rotary parlour plan.... milking almost 500cows apparently and thinks a rotary is a bit too much for the farm financially.... if 500cows cant pay for a rotary... dairying must be really goosed...??

11-07-2020 10:47pm

carrollsno1 wrote: »

I suppose thats the advantage of dairying, youd be full time. Cant understand part time farming really anymore just see the auld boy at it and he has no life from it, says hes making a bit at it but wont spend a few bob to make life easier on himself so thats his own doing. I havent the time to help him anymore and i havent the gra for it anymore either as all I see if i go down that route is f#cking around every Saturday and Sunday as well as every morning and evening during the week. If i got the place in the morning id set most of it to the dairy farmer next door and keep the bit around the yard and set it up well the way I have a minimal workload all year round and if I was on site for work and needed to get a mate in to throw an eye on the place during the week thats all theyd have to do.

While I’d love to be able to farm full time or farm plus some added value farm business it’s just not going to happen and I’ve spend years in college to get a good off farm job so would be hard to give it up even if the farm was viable full time.

But I love having it part time, look forward to the weekends and getting out on the farm happy to spend the full day Saturday if needed. Rarely we would do much on a Sunday though. Usually only be morning or evening during the week, sometimes it’s a pain sometimes it’s lovely to get out. Being honest I’m as happy taking a weeks holiday and going doing silage or something as I’d be sitting on a beech somewhere.

That being said we are suckler now but the father does most of the farming still, I’d say the more I take over things the more I’ll reduce the suckers and go dairy calf to beef or finishing or whatever as I just wouldn’t have the time to be managing calving etc, needs to be check/feed once a day and no more during the week anyway. Probably keep a few of the sucklers though as we are years building a quality herd and wouldn’t like to get rid of it all.

carrollsno1 · 11-07-2020 11:48pm

awaywithyou wrote: »

there are plenty of lads doing well out of cows... and most of em are guys who havent gone down the more more more route....

have to say i was a bit shocked to b told that Bill oKeeffe has abandoned the rotary parlour plan.... milking almost 500cows apparently and thinks a rotary is a bit too much for the farm financially.... if 500cows cant pay for a rotary... dairying must be really goosed...??

Didnt read the journal in a long time, he told me he was worried with Covid that a rotary would be held up and not ready for calving 2021 as the construction industry shut up shop at the start of Covid. He was lacking labour for the coming spring at the time i met him, told me write down job description and package and get back to him about it.
I had been looking down other pathways to a different career at the time and have since pursued them and wouldnt dream of going back milking someone elses cows again.

carrollsno1 · 11-07-2020 11:53pm

Savannah Green Handball wrote: »

While I’d love to be able to farm full time or farm plus some added value farm business it’s just not going to happen and I’ve spend years in college to get a good off farm job so would be hard to give it up even if the farm was viable full time.

But I love having it part time, look forward to the weekends and getting out on the farm happy to spend the full day Saturday if needed. Rarely we would do much on a Sunday though. Usually only be morning or evening during the week, sometimes it’s a pain sometimes it’s lovely to get out. Being honest I’m as happy taking a weeks holiday and going doing silage or something as I’d be sitting on a beech somewhere.

That being said we are suckler now but the father does most of the farming still, I’d say the more I take over things the more I’ll reduce the suckers and go dairy calf to beef or finishing or whatever as I just wouldn’t have the time to be managing calving etc, needs to be check/feed once a day and no more during the week anyway. Probably keep a few of the sucklers though as we are years building a quality herd an would like to get rid of it all.

Horses for courses i suppose. Ive put a big emphasis on time off since i went travelling as i hadnt really known much about it previously some lads say im gone lazy the same lads never got up before 6am in their lives, but i just cant see how you could be expected to be tied to a place every day of the year for minimal return it basically slavery.

Birdnuts · 12-07-2020 12:49am

whelan2 wrote: »

Same was being said 10 years ago.

Pre - quota was a very different world

20silkcut · 12-07-2020 1:28am

carrollsno1 wrote: »

Horses for courses i suppose. Ive put a big emphasis on time off since i went travelling as i hadnt really known much about it previously some lads say im gone lazy the same lads never got up before 6am in their lives, but i just cant see how you could be expected to be tied to a place every day of the year for minimal return it basically slavery.

Personality type is a factor too. I reckon dairy farming is more suited to a person happy in their own company and not too bothered about what happens outside the farm gate.

I reckon a more gregarious outgoing person would find it tough going after a few years especially in a one man set up.

Timmaay · 12-07-2020 1:52am

20silkcut wrote: »

Personality type is a factor too. I reckon dairy farming is more suited to a person happy in their own company and not too bothered about what happens outside the farm gate.

I reckon a more gregarious outgoing person would find it tough going after a few years especially in a one man set up.

A large reason why I'm happy to expand away and have more labour under me.

wrangler · 12-07-2020 8:15am

Timmaay wrote: »

A large reason why I'm happy to expand away and have more labour under me.

I see a lot of 100 cow herds using a lot of outside help, I even often meet the relief milker coming out from a 70 cow new entrant beside me.
A new 500 cow herd beside me has local farmers contract rearing and milking, some even doing both, one in particular that used to have 100 sucklers now parttime milking, calving,etc and contract rearing for the new herd.
The owner is apparently developing his fourth 4 - 500 cow herd so he won't be milking much.
There's definitely no reason for the whinge that farmers have to feed cattle for Larry now, There's plenty of opportunity out there for drystock farmers that'd get off their backside
Even though the 120 cow herd is supposed to be a one man unit in reality they're not doing it on their own

Buford T. Justice XIX · 12-07-2020 8:31am

awaywithyou wrote: »

there are plenty of lads doing well out of cows... and most of em are guys who havent gone down the more more more route....

have to say i was a bit shocked to b told that Bill oKeeffe has abandoned the rotary parlour plan.... milking almost 500cows apparently and thinks a rotary is a bit too much for the farm financially.... if 500cows cant pay for a rotary... dairying must be really goosed...??

Iirc, he was looking at a€700k investment for the rotary. He's upgrading his current parlour to a 24 unit double up and investing elsewhere in buildings and housing and having a couple of hundred thousand spared.

David Hay · 12-07-2020 8:46am

How many hours would a dairy farmer work in an average week in

Spring
Summer
Autumn
And winter ?

jaymla627 · 12-07-2020 8:50am

Buford T. Justice XIX wrote: »

Iirc, he was looking at a€700k investment for the rotary. He's upgrading his current parlour to a 24 unit double up and investing elsewhere in buildings and housing and having a couple of hundred thousand spared.

Over a 15 year payback for the rotary if running costs where factored in, your looking at needing over 3.5 cent for every litre of milk produced on the farm for the 15 years to pay for it, its doable in a good year but a bad year our two pricewise and weatherwise and it would put some financial strain on a farm

Mass exodus to Dairying !!!

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