Mass exodus to Dairying !!!

patsy_mccabe

I know this has been discussed many times on here, but I am shocked at the number locally that are going dairying. It seems that anyone with a 80~100 acre plot is switching over. It seems that some that took a wait and see approach, have now decided it's the best option.
What will be the implications of all this? Will it mean an end to suckling? Even here in east Clare, where most are small part timers, I see more and more buying in dairy cross suck calves. Will it be good for the beef industry here to decimate the suckler herd. A lot of pedigree beef herds being dispersed too.

Will it suit the powers that be, to get rid of sucklers.....less emissions and all that?
Will it be easier or harder market Irish Beef abroad, as a result?

kerryjack

Well it's the only chance you have of going full time farming a lot of lads that were working and were at home because of the lock down and the fine weather we had in April and may have got the love of farming back myself included, I will eat the grass before i go back to my day job.

greenfield21

Is this thread now confirmation dairying is in bubble territory? We've even stopped talking about the supply side which makes it even more likely.

Grueller

greenfield21 wrote: »

Is this thread now confirmation dairying is in bubble territory? We've even stopped talking about the supply side which makes it even more likely.

Compared to European markets the Irish farmers are being slightly underpaid for their milk. It is a world market and the number of dairy farmers is in decline on the continent so I don't see that we are in danger of a massive crash.
There will be good and bad years. In the good years we will hear lads say that there was never a bubble it is all rosy and in the bad years others will say that they told us so. We should have all kept costs down and stayed in beef.
The key thing is for lads to keep entry costs low and not add unnecessary production costs to the system. That's my 2 cents worth as a new entrant anyhow.

greenfield21

greenfield21 wrote: »

Is this thread now confirmation dairying is in bubble territory? We've even stopped talking about the supply side which makes it even more likely.

Its in bubble territory so long around where i am...its impressive


Its probably over corrected abit from quota era,but you have lads handing out 20K for renting 60 arces of middling enough land,several miles away from.their own land/parlour too

...you have to wonder about margins involved,like fair play and all....but there is nowhere lonelier than farming if things start to go wrong/bad financially





I love to see lads drive on and make money/sucess for emselves,theres enough doom and gloom,bitter and downbeat people in farming

But i went to enough funerals of suicide victims,linked to the building collaspe to not be scared for em/their suppliers too

screamer

Milk prices will just continue to drop with more and more supply. Most of what we produce has to be exported and it’s a challenge to find enough market for our product. We’re not the only agri country, and TBH we have too many cattle and too many farmers, so expect prices to continue downward.

cosatron

its hard to figure out the future of farming in ireland when we are so reliant on export. For instances, if the uk tell us to get stuffed, every sector of irish farming will suffer. I think putting all our eggs in the dairy basket isn't going to be viable in the long term as there is already excessive price gouging going on between the co-op here to supply milk to the supermarkets.

blackbox

greenfield21 wrote: »

Is this thread now confirmation dairying is in bubble territory? We've even stopped talking about the supply side which makes it even more likely.

Two questions...

How long does it take to recoup the cost of setting up for dairying (while paying yourself a decent wage)?

How long do you think the current demand level and price will last?

3 the square

Lot of lads getting out too dont forget you would really want a love for it 7 day a week job etc etc

kerryjack

blackbox wrote: »

Two questions...

How long does it take to recoup the cost of setting up for dairying (while paying yourself a decent wage)?

How long do you think the current demand level and price will last?

A decent wage; your a gas man

whelan2

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

I know this has been discussed many times on here, but I am shocked at the number locally that are going dairying. It seems that anyone with a 80~100 acre plot is switching over. It seems that some that took a wait and see approach, have now decided it's the best option.
What will be the implications of all this? Will it mean an end to suckling? Even here in east Clare, where most are small part timers, I see more and more buying in dairy cross suck calves. Will it be good for the beef industry here to decimate the suckler herd. A lot of pedigree beef herds being dispersed too.

Will it suit the powers that be, to get rid of sucklers.....less emissions and all that?
Will it be easier or harder market Irish Beef abroad, as a result?

Are you tempted to go dairying yourself?

mahoney_j

Grueller wrote: »

Compared to European markets the Irish farmers are being slightly underpaid for their milk. It is a world market and the number of dairy farmers is in decline on the continent so I don't see that we are in danger of a massive crash.
There will be good and bad years. In the good years we will hear lads say that there was never a bubble it is all rosy and in the bad years others will say that they told us so. We should have all kept costs down and stayed in beef.
The key thing is for lads to keep entry costs low and not add unnecessary production costs to the system. That's my 2 cents worth as a new entrant anyhow.

Slightly underpaid ....the powers that be in bord bia tegasc etc keep feeding us tripe about our supposed huge advantage grass based dairying gives us and out clean green low carbon produce (that’s true).reality is we’re paid screwed for producing milk this way when u look at indoor systems in most of rest of world ,all receiving far better price than us

cosatron

mahoney_j wrote: »

Slightly underpaid ....the powers that be in bord bia tegasc etc keep feeding us tripe about our supposed huge advantage grass based dairying gives us and out clean green low carbon produce (that’s true).reality is we’re paid screwed for producing milk this way when u look at indoor systems in most of rest of world ,all receiving far better price than us

its a joke isn't it. we have these premium grass fed products that few other european countries have but yet we are getting the worst prices in europe.

kerryjack

cosatron wrote: »

its a joke isn't it. we have these premium grass fed products that few other european countries have but yet we are getting the worst prices in europe.

Yes there is no doubt it's a premium product when fresh and we can't send our fresh milk all over the world so its powdered down and looses its premium status.

djmc

They are always going to pay the lowest price possible and the farmer's have to get more efficient become smarter and run faster just to stay still and not fall behind

patsy_mccabe

cosatron wrote: »

its a joke isn't it. we have these premium grass fed products that few other european countries have but yet we are getting the worst prices in europe.

It's the same in any exporting business. You have to take a lower price. Basic economics. We're lucky European farmers are not complaining more about us under cutting them.

patsy_mccabe

:rolleyes:

whelan2 wrote: »

Are you tempted to go dairying yourself?

No deffo not. More curious as to the knock on effect on the beef side of things here. More power to all the new entrants. I'm sure they'll be fine.

Buford T. Justice XIX

3 the square wrote: »

Lot of lads getting out too dont forget you would really want a love for it 7 day a week job etc etc

Very true. I went on a bit of a road trip yesterday and was talking to a few farmers there. There's a lot of dairy farms there in that area but the number of successors are in single figures. The majority of farms in what was one of the dairying of areas in Kerry will be taken up as out blocks for the bigger farms or a few beef cattle kept for a hobby.

A neighbour went milking a few years ago, won awards for his milk quality and sold the last of the cows calved this spring as the milking was taking up too much of his time.

The average age of a dairy farmer down here is not far off of 60 so there will need to be a dramatic rethink about the structure of the industry in the next few years while there still is an industry.

Donald Trump

kerryjack wrote: »

Yes there is no doubt it's a premium product when fresh and we can't send our fresh milk all over the world so its powdered down and looses its premium status.

"grass fed" butter will keep it's premium status.



Kerrygold is actually available in most big supermarkets in the US.


US butter is white!

kevthegaff

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

It's the same in any exporting business. You have to take a lower price. Basic economics. We're lucky European farmers are not complaining more about us under cutting them.

Our processors are taking out key ingredients of some of our milk for higher value products and re adding cheaper ingredients to make a cheaper butter for the african market. Poor African dairy farmers then are being shafted. I suppose that's capitalism, but I dont think any country in the eu can really complain

Say my name

Buford T. Justice XIX wrote: »

Very true. I went on a bit of a road trip yesterday and was talking to a few farmers there. There's a lot of dairy farms there in that area but the number of successors are in single figures. The majority of farms in what was one of the dairying of areas in Kerry will be taken up as out blocks for the bigger farms or a few beef cattle kept for a hobby.

A neighbour went milking a few years ago, won awards for his milk quality and sold the last of the cows calved this spring as the milking was taking up too much of his time.

The average age of a dairy farmer down here is not far off of 60 so there will need to be a dramatic rethink about the structure of the industry in the next few years while there still is an industry.

There was a neighbour here won breeding awards for Holstein freisian stock regularly for years.
He must have had the attitude of been there done as he left dairying and converted his cubicles into cattle finishing quarters.
Had hundreds of cattle and the country scoured for bought fodder.
Then took a complete new turn again and sold the farm and bought accommodation in the holiday resorts in Spain and moved out and is now a landlord with his wife.
People thrive on challenges. Staleness is enemy to most.

I've another neighbour who had/has a civil servant job, in his sixties and he's going into dairying and looking at robots.

Ain't it a grand thing to experience dairying in your teens and twenties. :pac:
Priceless.

Still waters

Too much supply=price drop, and everyone that jumps on a bandwagon is always in trouble when the wagon goes to the axle

Donald Trump

Say my name wrote: »

Then took a complete new turn again and sold the farm and bought accommodation in the holiday resorts in Spain and moved out and is now a landlord with his wife.

I know of a fella who sold his land about 20 years ago and the story is that he used the money to buy "bargain" apartments in a non EU country.....and that whatever happened, either that the apartments weren't built or something dodgy was done or was not done right and he now has neither apartments nor land.

Siamsa Sessions

Say my name wrote: »

People thrive on challenges. Staleness is enemy to most.

I'll hold my hands up and say this is part of my reason for looking into it. But it's not the only reason.

I've had sheep for 5 years now and have a handle on what's out of it, plus what I'd need to invest to expand. But even then, it'd be a massive struggle to make it a full-time gig.

Bought calves last year (and this year). Again, I've something of an idea what's possible with a calf-to-beef system for our farm.

Cows are the only chance I have if I ever want to be a full-time farmer. The first 12 months will be a mess as I'll need to continue working part-time off-farm. But I'm thinking in terms of the next 20-25 years and the 3 young lads I have coming after me. I'd never ask them to take over the place but I'd like to give them a few jobs helping me while they're teenagers and looking for part-time work (i.e. money), plus it'll give us more in common than me working in an office ever will.

I'm not committed either way yet, and it'd be 2022 before the first cows would be in the parlour here. I'll continue the homework and fixing up more paddocks in the meantime.

Most of the people I've spoken to so far have been largely positive, while not sugar-coating anything. The only disappointment was a Teagasc guy who reverted to type. Within the first 5 mins of our phone call, he had mentioned needing 100 cows and an investment of 100k, before asking if there was any land around us that I might be able for rent!

Say my name

Donald Trump wrote: »

I know of a fella who sold his land about 20 years ago and the story is that he used the money to buy "bargain" apartments in a non EU country.....and that whatever happened, either that the apartments weren't built or something dodgy was done or was not done right and he now has neither apartments nor land.

You'd have to be hands on with these type of things and eyes wide open with boots on the ground.
The couple here are well known by people in Wexford and they'd be hosting visits in Spain.
If you're hands off and not a people or business person. Forget it.

cosatron

Siamsa Sessions wrote: »

I'll hold my hands up and say this is part of my reason for looking into it. But it's not the only reason.

I've had sheep for 5 years now and have a handle on what's out of it, plus what I'd need to invest to expand. But even then, it'd be a massive struggle to make it a full-time gig.

Bought calves last year (and this year). Again, I've something of an idea what's possible with a calf-to-beef system for our farm.

Cows are the only chance I have if I ever want to be a full-time farmer. The first 12 months will be a mess as I'll need to continue working part-time off-farm. But I'm thinking in terms of the next 20-25 years and the 3 young lads I have coming after me. I'd never ask them to take over the place but I'd like to give them a few jobs helping me while they're teenagers and looking for part-time work (i.e. money), plus it'll give us more in common than me working in an office ever will.

I'm not committed either way yet, and it'd be 2022 before the first cows would be in the parlour here. I'll continue the homework and fixing up more paddocks in the meantime.

Most of the people I've spoken to so far have been largely positive, while not sugar-coating anything. The only disappointment was a Teagasc guy who reverted to type. Within the first 5 mins of our phone call, he had mentioned needing 100 cows and an investment of 100k, before asking if there was any land around us that I might be able for rent!

lol keep going around to other dairy farmers is the best advice you will get

djmc

Buford T. Justice XIX wrote: »

Very true. I went on a bit of a road trip yesterday and was talking to a few farmers there. There's a lot of dairy farms there in that area but the number of successors are in single figures. The majority of farms in what was one of the dairying of areas in Kerry will be taken up as out blocks for the bigger farms or a few beef cattle kept for a hobby.

A neighbour went milking a few years ago, won awards for his milk quality and sold the last of the cows calved this spring as the milking was taking up too much of his time.

The average age of a dairy farmer down here is not far off of 60 so there will need to be a dramatic rethink about the structure of the industry in the next few years while there still is an industry.

I was dairying in kerry myself for 20 years with around 60 cows and just got out in 2016 after the quotas went. No hope of expanding on my farm and felt I had enough of 7 day a week hardship for one lifetime.
I know farmers around too with childern not interested in taking over the dairy farm. I know its different in some areas where lads have access to good land longside their own farm

Donald Trump

Say my name wrote: »

You'd have to be hands on with these type of things and eyes wide open with boots on the ground.
The couple here are well known by people in Wexford and they'd be hosting visits in Spain.
If you're hands off and not a people or business person. Forget it.

I gather the idea was sold to him more as a passive investment - "hey, apartments are 200k in Dublin. Look here and I can build you 5 brand new apartments over there for every 200k you give me"


Regardless, the point is that it isn't necessarily guaranteed that the grass will be greener or that there will be easy money. Most businesses will give you a far better return on your capital than farming will, but the land will always give you some sort of passive income through renting it out if you don't want to work it. And it won't cost you anything unless they bring rates back!



That man might have been in financial difficulty that he sold his land in the first place. The story about the failed investment might be just that - a story. And even if it is true, maybe but for an unfortunate incident or two, he might have turned his 2 million into 20 million! Or maybe he did do that and just doesn't flaunt it.

alps

blackbox wrote: »

Two questions...

How long does it take to recoup the cost of setting up for dairying (while paying yourself a decent wage)?

The snag here is the "decent wage"..

We would consider a decent wage to be whatever you would have to pay to replace you.

The real problem is that you are not being replaced. You may have a cash requirement from the farm now of say 35k (min cost of a labour unit), but as commitments change and family grows up that cash requirement wont be long going to 60k.

Now the figures wont match, as your competition (land rent etc) will still be basing figures on the minimum labour requirement cost.

So the critical part will be the set up cost, and that will range from 2 to 5k per cow. Your payback period will range from 10 to 20 years and if you family demands kick in before payback, it may not be possible. The only option there is to remain in expansion mode, many of which now operate on the logic that on finishing, the sale of the realised business will be greater on value than the starting business and in the meantime it will have kicked off that ever increasing requirement for drawings.

As this type of expansion continues, the cost creep to the non expanding farms becomes greater and unavoidable. I'm concerned that the non expanding dairy farms are now seeing the beginning of what the beef farmers started to experience 20 years ago with declining prices and increasing costs , surviving on depreciation and lack of repairs and maintenance.

If you're going into dairying with a long term outlook, you will have to be prepared to chase that ever increasing scale model that is now set here.

kerryjack

Some things work, some things don't, a lad sold up here 30 years ago and bought a b&b outside kilarney, he done well down through the years and has a nice place now. He was the talk of the place at the time leaving the land behind not a great place plenty rushes his poor wife was blamed at the time lovely women got to know her well afterwards great business women and the brains of the operation, she would have been wasted on that ould farm.

Timmaay

I think there is a mass exodus no matter what, its either get out and walk away from farming or consider dairying. In terms of supply and demand, china is a massive country, and whatever Ireland exports to it is only a drop in the ocean of their demand. We hit the harvest 2020 figures 2 years early, there were some 2025 expansion figures produced a year or so ago which they have gone very quiet on, I think we can hit them also without a sweat assuming the environment crowd would let us.

Going back to the farm level, personally I'm only valuing land at 150e/ac moving forward, and would only consider compact spring calving systems on dry land to be viable to start up. The processors love young enthusiastic people coming forward who want to milk loads of cows and succeed and thrive, personally I always like to see enthusiastic young people still interested in going farming, however I absolutely won't ever sugar-coat the facts, you need to be very shrewd about it all, you need to let land opportunities come to you rather than you locking horns and bidding up land values against others, you need to be realistic about land types, soils suitable for long grazing seasons are all that I'd bother with and you need to be very realistic with investments and borrowing levels, and finally you most certainly need a full busy mucky wet spring of experience on the ground working in a dairy farm and if your not comfortable with them 3months of hardship then it's not for you ha.