Mass exodus to Dairying !!!

Mixed Farmer

Bullocks wrote: »

If you didn't go to dairy would you sell as much beef with a lot less work by getting rid of the suckler cows and buying light stores or weanlings?

Do currently buy a few stores. Getting a turn at them.Finishing all cattle off grass. Buying a lighting store (400-500 kilos) wintering him in silage and maintenance meal. Out too kale in January on grass in March and killed in June(Demand and price bit more). Can’t see any value in any stores in the spring when there going mad for them or at the suckler sales when you get people just buying calves too fill a pen because that’s what they always done.

Dickie10

big enough dairy beside me up for sale next week 189 acres all in one block, two brothers work it and are retreing from the business and sailing into the sunset. next door man will probably buy it hes milking 400 on about 300acres i think

Dickie10

whats to stop all the co-ops /processors coming together to all give the same price , like next month take 10 cent /litre off the price?

awaywithyou

Dickie10 wrote: »

big enough dairy beside me up for sale next week 189 acres all in one block, two brothers work it and are retreing from the business and sailing into the sunset. next door man will probably buy it hes milking 400 on about 300acres i think

I was on that farm that’s for sale bout 10 yrs ago.... they had just put in a new milking parlour.... 2 nice men both married with kids... shame to see it being sold.....

The Rabbi

Dickie10 wrote: »

whats to stop all the co-ops /processors coming together to all give the same price , like next month take 10 cent /litre off the price?

That would be too obvious,(to us)the competition authority might even notice that.
They would pull it 2 cents at a time.And 4 cents everytme someone says Brexit.
Just like the other monopoly that there is no evidence of.

einn32

Dickie10 wrote: »

whats to stop all the co-ops /processors coming together to all give the same price , like next month take 10 cent /litre off the price?

Coming together?? They've been together for years!!

C0N0R

I would have thought In a cooperative that would be rather hard to achieve, and then at the agm when the figures are published you would imagine someone would cop on.

Dickie10

if farmers had vested intrest in their coop outgunning all the competition to achieve a monopoly thugh the shareholders may agree to it. on the other hand why did beef never set up co ops like this? i suppose Emerald Isle are doing that now?!

wrangler

Dickie10 wrote: »

if farmers had vested intrest in their coop outgunning all the competition to achieve a monopoly thugh the shareholders may agree to it. on the other hand why did beef never set up co ops like this? i suppose Emerald Isle are doing that now?!

Glenbarrow Beef was set up around 2000, wonder where they are now.
They were supposed to be marketing their own beef.
Present processors are the best at their job, I doubt farmers would put in the same effort.

patsy_mccabe

The new monoplies are not like the old. Ryanair would be typical of the new. Cut your costs so much that others simply cannot compete. Slowly by slowly, you will eat up market share. Before you know it, you own the market. Competition authority won't do anything about it, as their allegiance is first and foremost to the consumer, and the consumer benefits from lower prices.

alps

wrangler wrote: »

Glenbarrow Beef was set up around 2000, wonder where they are now.
They were supposed to be marketing their own beef.
Present processors are the best at their job, I doubt farmers would put in the same effort.

Dickie10 wrote: »

if farmers had vested intrest in their coop outgunning all the competition to achieve a monopoly thugh the shareholders may agree to it. on the other hand why did beef never set up co ops like this? i suppose Emerald Isle are doing that now?!

Farmer Coops have owned meat factories in the past and have failed.

Farmer boards dont have the clinical edge to cost cutting and efficiency to compete against the private industry here.

farmertipp

alps wrote: »

Farmer Coops have owned meat factories in the past and have failed.

Farmer boards dont have the clinical edge to cost cutting and efficiency to compete against the private industry here.

farmers got rid of factories for the reasons you say but dairy coops who had factories were unionized up to the hilt and the easiest thing to do was sell it , take the money and use it to cover up inefficient practices in dairy processing because most farmers who mak ere it to boards are half burned out an very conservative.
I supply dairygold and am disappointed with performance of the board in last 2 to 3 yrs.
it coincided with the retirement of real sharp business men and being replaced by people who have no imagination or business acumen.
management can be blamed but wont function properly without a competent board.

Dickie10

so would people fear a race to the bottom in regards milk prices by processors? now the supply is there why pay any more than you need to ? theres a higher margin passed back to shareholders/farmers . if shareholders see the company making big profits and getting it passed back or shares going up in value would farmers cash them in, espeicially older farmers. i would this is what glanbia and big companies want , get rid of farmers out of the company and start cutting away at price.

jaymla627

Dickie10 wrote: »

so would people fear a race to the bottom in regards milk prices by processors? now the supply is there why pay any more than you need to ? theres a higher margin passed back to shareholders/farmers . if shareholders see the company making big profits and getting it passed back or shares going up in value would farmers cash them in, espeicially older farmers. i would this is what glanbia and big companies want , get rid of farmers out of the company and start cutting away at price.

Given no processors are in private ownership like beef factories the top management men and women at the head of these co-ops cant do the above as your alluding to bar glanbia, but these suppliers the majority of them voted away any rights they had for a bigger say in the co-op when they voted for the spinouts, your romanitially notion that the milk will still keep flowing in no matter the price dosent hold water, even at a base of 30 cent a litre thats probably the minimum breakeven price on irish dairy farms if a proper wage is taken and to service borrowings and upkeep of the place...
A sustained period of sub 30 cent and say low 20s would see a lot of men simply shut up shop our drastically cut numbers, a 150 cows herd would easily run up a deficit of 40-50k of merchant debt in a few months if milk price tanks and if no recovery occurs after 12-18 months it becomes not viable to continue milking

richie123

jaymla627 wrote: »

Given no processors are in private ownership like beef factories the top management men and women at the head of these co-ops cant do the above as your alluding to bar glanbia, but these suppliers the majority of them voted away any rights they had for a bigger say in the co-op when they voted for the spinouts, your romanitially notion that the milk will still keep flowing in no matter the price dosent hold water, even at a base of 30 cent a litre thats probably the minimum breakeven price on irish dairy farms if a proper wage is taken and to service borrowings and upkeep of the place...
A sustained period of sub 30 cent and say low 20s would see a lot of men simply shut up shop our drastically cut numbers, a 150 cows herd would easily run up a deficit of 40-50k of merchant debt in a few months if milk price tanks and if no recovery occurs after 12-18 months it becomes not viable to continue milking

Exactly..a lot of dairy setups don't have big bps payments propping them up.

Castlekeeper

Keepgrowing wrote: »

That is one of the best posts I’ve ever read on boards.

It is... except for the stock market analogy, get in there at the wrong time and you could be 10 years waiting for your money back.

patsy_mccabe

Castlekeeper wrote: »

It is... except for the stock market analogy, get in there at the wrong time and you could be 10 years waiting for your money back.

Stock markets can be a bubble just like any other market.

Keepgrowing

May be of interest to some

https://twitter.com/irishgrassland/status/1282740869473415168?s=21

Dickie10

jaymla627 wrote: »

Given no processors are in private ownership like beef factories the top management men and women at the head of these co-ops cant do the above as your alluding to bar glanbia, but these suppliers the majority of them voted away any rights they had for a bigger say in the co-op when they voted for the spinouts, your romanitially notion that the milk will still keep flowing in no matter the price dosent hold water, even at a base of 30 cent a litre thats probably the minimum breakeven price on irish dairy farms if a proper wage is taken and to service borrowings and upkeep of the place...
A sustained period of sub 30 cent and say low 20s would see a lot of men simply shut up shop our drastically cut numbers, a 150 cows herd would easily run up a deficit of 40-50k of merchant debt in a few months if milk price tanks and if no recovery occurs after 12-18 months it becomes not viable to continue milking

Yes but would dairy farmers pull the pin or,like all farmers almst universally , become "next year men", in that next year the price has to rise or things will get better? i would get hard to see dairy farmers getting out after investing a couple of 100k in some cases. I would think it were a case of the banks getting them out, now thats a horrible vista. But I wouldcommend anyones bravery to get into dairying at the minute or invest massivley , ok if its not costing much in terms of debt. but it all just seems set up for a horror show. would there be a comparision to the USA in 1980s in agriculture or were those famrers massivley more leveraged with debt? i think i read about it and it sounded like family farms were hanging on by their fingernails that time anyway. constantly borrowing for the basics such as seed and fertiliser, would many irish farms not be able to pay for these out of cash flow or would farms borrow for these basics year in year out?

20silkcut

Dickie10 wrote: »

Yes but would dairy farmers pull the pin or,like all farmers almst universally , become "next year men", in that next year the price has to rise or things will get better? i would get hard to see dairy farmers getting out after investing a couple of 100k in some cases. I would think it were a case of the banks getting them out, now thats a horrible vista. But I wouldcommend anyones bravery to get into dairying at the minute or invest massivley , ok if its not costing much in terms of debt. but it all just seems set up for a horror show. would there be a comparision to the USA in 1980s in agriculture or were those famrers massivley more leveraged with debt? i think i read about it and it sounded like family farms were hanging on by their fingernails that time anyway. constantly borrowing for the basics such as seed and fertiliser, would many irish farms not be able to pay for these out of cash flow or would farms borrow for these basics year in year out?

I’d imagine most farmers would get seed and fertilizer on merchant credit not bank loans.

Obviously Paying out of cash flow is the ideal option to avoid interest and credit charges. But that’s not an option for everyone by a long shot.
I know one or two dairy farmers locally who go that route and get nothing on credit.

Grueller

I have always got 3 months interest free from my merchant here. Clear the bill at the end of every 3 month billing period. I always get a few quid off from the rep that calls that I wouldn't get paying in store on the day.

Bass Reeves

Grueller wrote: »

I have always got 3 months interest free from my merchant here. Clear the bill at the end of every 3 month billing period. I always get a few quid off from the rep that calls that I wouldn't get paying in store on the day.

Most merchants deal with bigger volumes(feed fertlizer) through reps. On smaller items in the shop they usually have a decent margin on so they can give credit. However on substantial orders they will discount for cash.

I deal with two co-op one will discount any bill by 2-3% and maybe round it below that. The other discount nothing and you have to ask for interest off. However most will discount for payment on the day. This is really noticeable when buying fertlizer. Payment on ordering can be 4-5euro/ton and if a rep discounts on payment after 3months he has it added on to take off. A rep once indicated as much to me, he said you get to know the hard bargainer after awhile and you adjust your starting price.

Yes you can shop around but usually price is dictated by the terms of payment as well

K.G.

Dickie10 wrote: »

Yes but would dairy farmers pull the pin or,like all farmers almst universally , become "next year men", in that next year the price has to rise or things will get better? i would get hard to see dairy farmers getting out after investing a couple of 100k in some cases. I would think it were a case of the banks getting them out, now thats a horrible vista. But I wouldcommend anyones bravery to get into dairying at the minute or invest massivley , ok if its not costing much in terms of debt. but it all just seems set up for a horror show. would there be a comparision to the USA in 1980s in agriculture or were those famrers massivley more leveraged with debt? i think i read about it and it sounded like family farms were hanging on by their fingernails that time anyway. constantly borrowing for the basics such as seed and fertiliser, would many irish farms not be able to pay for these out of cash flow or would farms borrow for these basics year in year out?

Dairy farmers are by large filltime amd alot dont have alternative income so they are more likely to pull the pin as there is no where to hide.much like pigs have gone through and its now the case that there is only 300 pig units in the country if dairying hits a prolong period of low returns the numbers will leave.probaly be the case that the same amount of milk is produced is the same .or maybe even more.i do worry about people spending alot of money converting to dairy but not about expansion in general. The ass isnt going to fall out of milk because of a few lads in Ireland going milking. Its going to happen if we become less competitive with the rest of the world

wrangler

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Most merchants deal with bigger volumes(feed fertlizer) through reps. On smaller items in the shop they usually have a decent margin on so they can give credit. However on substantial orders they will discount for cash.

I deal with two co-op one will discount any bill by 2-3% and maybe round it below that. The other discount nothing and you have to ask for interest off. However most will discount for payment on the day. This is really noticeable when buying fertlizer. Payment on ordering can be 4-5euro/ton and if a rep discounts on payment after 3months he has it added on to take off. A rep once indicated as much to me, he said you get to know the hard bargainer after awhile and you adjust your starting price.

Yes you can shop around but usually price is dictated by the terms of payment as well

I had a huge problem years ago with a merchant that changed managers mid year and when I went to pay my account they hadn't credited my discount from the two previous years. The new manager claimed the margin wasn't in it to give the discount that I got. previous manager used to work out the discount in an ordinary copy book and luckily enough I'd always ask him to give me a copy of his calculations and I could check the real price when I'd get home...... only for those bits of paper I would have been robbed, those times I was paying at harvest and he was probably telling his bosses I was a bad pay.
I always pay to clear the account now and have it specified on the receipt since that.

Siamsa Sessions

wrangler wrote: »

I always pay to clear the account now and have it specified on the receipt since that.

Similar approach here now. I got into the habit of saying "Put that down to me" here in the local merchant and then got a few mini heart attacks when the monthly statement was sent out.

I cleared the debt last week and will go back to pay-as-you-go from here on. Having said that, I'll probably get the fertiliser on tick next year again!

Another issue I had with the monthly statement was trying to pick through the different items so I could see what bits were for the sheep and what for the calves. Tracking this is a little extra work on the accounts spreadsheet but at least I can see which enterprise is costing/returning most.

Bass Reeves

wrangler wrote: »

I had a huge problem years ago with a merchant that changed managers mid year and when I went to pay my account they hadn't credited my discount from the two previous years. The new manager claimed the margin wasn't in it to give the discount that I got. previous manager used to work out the discount in an ordinary copy book and luckily enough I'd always ask him to give me a copy of his calculations and I could check the real price when I'd get home...... only for those bits of paper I would have been robbed, those times I was paying at harvest and he was probably telling his bosses I was a bad pay.
I always pay to clear the account now and have it specified on the receipt since that.

I take it you never came across him again. That suggests that he left the sales side of agri completely. Often merchants employ people completely unsuitable for the job. It sounds as if he was just handing over the cheques but not carrying out the associated paperwork.

Nowadays with detailed bills going out you have more visuality of the payments

wrangler

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I take it you never came across him again. That suggests that he left the sales side of agri completely. Often merchants employ people completely unsuitable for the job. It sounds as if he was just handing over the cheques but not carrying out the associated paperwork.

Nowadays with detailed bills going out you have more visuality of the payments

He started his own agri store, but lasted no length.
He was obviously giving discounts that he wasn't authorised to do.
It was a very efficient branch, two in the yard and two in the office.
It was unreal that he could deceive head office so much, I'm sure I wasn't the only account

patsy_mccabe

See an 80 unit rotary parlour for sale on Donedeal. How would you even start to move it?

Dickie10

oh yeah its not irish oversupply of milk that will kill the golden goose it only needs a few larry goodman types in the dairy boards to start hacking away at the price.

alps

patsy_mccabe wrote: »

See an 80 unit rotary parlour for sale on Donedeal. How would you even start to move it?

Would it roll?