Property Market 2020

Cantstandsya · 09-07-2020 12:11pm

People can come up with statistics to prove anything... 14% of people know that.

wassie · 09-07-2020 12:12pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Hibernian is a PLC. It has to give regular and true business updates. So a synopsis of it statement.

Commercial rents are 90% of it rental business 3.5% is deferred from Q2 to be paid this month and 1% is unpaid. It also stated it noticed footfall increasing back into its commercial office spaces.On Residential properties which only make up 10% of its contracted rents it has collected 95% of rents due.

This indicates that rents are being paid at present.

I don't think Hibernia is representative of all REITs though. They claim they are are noted for having a "high-quality tenant base weighted towards the technology sector and state entities" i.e. their tenants are more likely to be able to pay rent during this time.

cnocbui · 09-07-2020 12:39pm

30% of US households missed their June mortgage payment and 32%, July's. Mortgage applications were up 33% on the same time last year. Pending home sales jumped 44.3% from April to May, the largest increase ever. Also there was a largest ever recorded surge in commercial rent delinquencies from May to June.

I predict that...umm...errr...

Rew · 09-07-2020 12:39pm

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Hibernian is a PLC. It has to give regular and true business updates. So a synopsis of it statement.

Commercial rents are 90% of it rental business 3.5% is deferred from Q2 to be paid this month and 1% is unpaid. It also stated it noticed footfall increasing back into its commercial office spaces.

On Residential properties which only make up 10% of its contracted rents it has collected 95% of rents due.

This indicates that rents are being paid at present.

Yeah but your reading an RTE summery of the report not the report:

https://www.hiberniareit.com/media-centre/news/news-2020/09-07-2020
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/hibernia_reit/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=955&newsid=1401385

1% of rents went unpaid in the Mar-Jun/Q2 period and its at 5.5% so far Q3 (early days though)

Rents on payment plans: 0% Q1 to 3.5% Q2 to 7.5% Q3

0.5% has been waived already in Q3

I don't think you can draw many hard and fast conclusions yet, there is a long tail of the COVID effect and COVID isn't done yet. Uptake on new leases, exercising breaks and num of renewals will be very interesting.

Iceman29 · 09-07-2020 1:03pm

cnocbui wrote: »

30% of US households missed their June mortgage payment and 32%, July's. Mortgage applications were up 33% on the same time last year. Pending home sales jumped 44.3% from April to May, the largest increase ever. Also there was a largest ever recorded surge in commercial rent delinquencies from May to June.

I predict that...umm...errr...

spit it out......what do you predict?

Iceman29 · 09-07-2020 1:04pm

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/surge-in-households-getting-mortgage-and-consumer-loan-payment-breaks-39353354.html

Surge in households getting mortgage and consumer loan payment breaks

uh oh

GreeBo · 09-07-2020 1:11pm

Marius34 wrote: »

I saw many examples how statistics are misused in this thread.

For example Financial institution builds 5 models for Property price forecast. It get 5 results for each model showing decrease of: 5%,6%,7%,8% & 15%
They would probably report that they forecast Property price decrease between 5% to 15%.
What would be expected media headline?
What we would see here on the board after read media news?

We would see "you would be **CRAZY** to buy a house now" like we see after every post.

cnocbui · 09-07-2020 1:18pm

Iceman29 wrote: »

spit it out......what do you predict?

Something will happen in the property market that some people will like, but that others won't.

JimmyVik · 09-07-2020 1:31pm

cnocbui wrote: »

30% of US households missed their June mortgage payment and 32%, July's. Mortgage applications were up 33% on the same time last year. Pending home sales jumped 44.3% from April to May, the largest increase ever. Also there was a largest ever recorded surge in commercial rent delinquencies from May to June.

I predict that...umm...errr...

I read an article on this in June.
Something to do with holidays falling at the weekend. The following Monday or Tuesday is when all the payments go through and very few have missed them by then, even though in the reports they are down as missed. Papers looking for headlines again. And the ones that have missed them they are in the same mortgage holiday system that we have here.

If you look up wherever you got the report you'll probably find links to an explanation like that in the comments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKTMlRZnHDY

Reversal · 09-07-2020 1:35pm

Iceman29 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/surge-in-households-getting-mortgage-and-consumer-loan-payment-breaks-39353354.html

Surge in households getting mortgage and consumer loan payment breaks

uh oh

But wait, according to some on here the COVID shock has only affected those low income workers who were never going to buy a house anyway.

So how are so many people who already own homes unable to pay their mortgages...

Marius34 · 09-07-2020 1:36pm

GreeBo wrote: »

We would see "you would be **CRAZY** to buy a house now" like we see after every post.

By some yes, but what I meant from the data point of view, the news headlines would be Institution X predicts property price to fall up to 15%.
The message in this thread would be: Institution X predicts 15% fall. (not 5%)

09-07-2020 1:42pm

Reversal wrote: »

But wait, according to some on here the COVID shock has only affected those low income workers who were never going to buy a house anyway. ........

I think that anyone who thought that realised after a few weeks that they were wrong..........lots of folk reckoned they'd be back in the office and that schools were going to reopen in April, May or June.

People underestimated how seriously the pandemic was/is taken by government, folk mentioning that it's mainly elderly folk who were at risk etc generally have no appreciation of the amount of immuno compromised folk that are out there also.

I'd have thought more would have needed to avail of a payment break then what's reported "Close to 62,500 households have availed of a mortgage payment break, with another 52,000 consumer loan breaks granted"

cnocbui · 09-07-2020 1:59pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

I read an article on this in June.
Something to do with holidays falling at the weekend. The following Monday or Tuesday is when all the payments go through and very few have missed them by then, even though in the reports they are down as missed. Papers looking for headlines again. And the ones that have missed them they are in the same mortgage holiday system that we have here.

If you look up wherever you got the report you'll probably find links to an explanation like that in the comments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKTMlRZnHDY

That’s the fourth month in a row that a “historically high” number of households were unable to pay their housing bill on time and in full, up from 30% in June and 31% in May.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/32-percent-of-us-households-missed-their-july-housing-payments.html

errlloyd · 09-07-2020 1:59pm

5 (4 1 beds and a 2bed) apartments and a commerical unit in New Market Hall D8 just went up on Bidx1 as separate lots. All currently vacant possession.

Does anyone why that might happen? I'd probably be keen on the 2 bed at the right price. But not if the building is in some way doomed.

SozBbz · 09-07-2020 2:04pm

errlloyd wrote: »

5 (4 1 beds and a 2bed) apartments and a commerical unit in New Market Hall D8 just went up on Bidx1 as separate lots. All currently vacant possession.

Does anyone why that might happen? I'd probably be keen on the 2 bed at the right price. But not if the building is in some way doomed.

Could be a single landlord selling up.

I know a number of units where I have a property were sold by a single developer as a job lot last year and he definitly took less per unit than they'd have fetched individually, but then selling them for the best price (ie 1 or 2 at a time) would have taken quite alot of time.

Sarn · 09-07-2020 2:06pm

Reversal wrote: »

But wait, according to some on here the COVID shock has only affected those low income workers who were never going to buy a house anyway.

So how are so many people who already own homes unable to pay their mortgages...

One reason is that the criteria to purchase a house were a lot more relaxed in the past. I wonder what proportion of those already in arrears or with restructured mortgages took a break?

SozBbz · 09-07-2020 2:08pm

Reversal wrote: »

But wait, according to some on here the COVID shock has only affected those low income workers who were never going to buy a house anyway.

So how are so many people who already own homes unable to pay their mortgages...

Well.... as we learned in 2008, its not only people who can't pay their mortgages who will stop paying if there is no perceived penalty.

LJ12345 · 09-07-2020 2:08pm

Unable or gaining some rainy day money just in case?

Reversal wrote: »

But wait, according to some on here the COVID shock has only affected those low income workers who were never going to buy a house anyway.

So how are so many people who already own homes unable to pay their mortgages...

JimmyVik · 09-07-2020 2:11pm

LJ12345 wrote: »

Unable or gaining some rainy day money just in case?

I know a couple who have only a few years left on their mortgage. Because they had to cancel their holidays this year, they took the mortgage break. They are going to use the money for a big holiday blowout next year.

Markitron · 09-07-2020 2:13pm

Nearly half a million quid for this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-new-ireland-road-rialto-dublin-8-d08-x7fy/4437212

I don't get how/why anyone who could actually afford that would want to live there

The Belly · 09-07-2020 2:17pm

Markitron wrote: »

Nearly half a million quid for this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-new-ireland-road-rialto-dublin-8-d08-x7fy/4437212

I don't get how/why anyone who could actually afford that would want to live there

needs a heap of money spent on it too

LJ12345 · 09-07-2020 2:17pm

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know a couple who have only a few years left on their mortgage. Because they had to cancel their holidays this year, they took the mortgage break. They are going to use the money for a big holiday blowout next year.

It’s happening all over, I know people looking to extend their house and saving has just been fast tracked by a mortgage break. Another couple have used the mortgage break to very sensibly get rid of their other higher interest loans. Both are still able to pay their mortgage and will do so after the 6 months.

Claw Hammer · 09-07-2020 2:18pm

Markitron wrote: »

Nearly half a million quid for this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-new-ireland-road-rialto-dublin-8-d08-x7fy/4437212

I don't get how/why anyone who could actually afford that would want to live there

The only reason would be if they couldn't get better value elsewhere.

SozBbz · 09-07-2020 2:21pm

LJ12345 wrote: »

It’s happening all over, I know people looking to extend their house and saving has just been fast tracked by a mortgage break. Another couple have used the mortgage break to very sensibly get rid of their other higher interest loans. Both are still able to pay their mortgage and will do so after the 6 months.

I must admit, it occoured to me. I didnt do it, because mainly I'm not saving for anything in particular and I don't have other loans, but I did think to myself that this is probably a hassle free to just kick it to touch for a few months without any blowback on my credit rating, so if I'd needed it for something smart, I'd have done it. Decided against it as I'd just love to get my mortgages paid off - not that either are close, but taking a break for no real reason didnt seem smart.

I'm sure lots of people have had this same thought process.

Markitron · 09-07-2020 2:26pm

The Belly wrote: »

needs a heap of money spent on it too

Yea, really weird.

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The only reason would be if they couldn't get better value elsewhere.

I am no expert on the market, but if you can't get better value than that then the market is insane

SozBbz · 09-07-2020 2:27pm

Markitron wrote: »

Nearly half a million quid for this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-new-ireland-road-rialto-dublin-8-d08-x7fy/4437212

I don't get how/why anyone who could actually afford that would want to live there

I don't know... on the face of it, I'd agree - doesnt seem great value, but Rialto is a bit trendy these days and theres a lot of competition for houses around that price point. Its not a huge number for a professional couple.

hometruths · 09-07-2020 2:42pm

Iceman29 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/surge-in-households-getting-mortgage-and-consumer-loan-payment-breaks-39353354.html

Surge in households getting mortgage and consumer loan payment breaks

uh oh

Thank goodness the banks are so well capitalised now, it's not a financial crisis, nothing to see here...

combat14 · 09-07-2020 3:02pm

Drop of 11% in Limerick house prices

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/556390/big-drop-in-limerick-house-prices-according-to-latest-daft-report.html

Markitron · 09-07-2020 3:05pm

SozBbz wrote: »

Rialto is a bit trendy these days

Admittedly I have only recently returned to Dublin after 5 years away, but this is news to me.

awec · 09-07-2020 3:06pm

combat14 wrote: »

Drop of 11% in Limerick house prices

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/556390/big-drop-in-limerick-house-prices-according-to-latest-daft-report.html

This is the same daft report that was discussed all day yesterday.

Property Market 2020

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