Property Market 2020

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

It may come as a surprise to you but yes I have, even on here.

Top of the market is never a good time to buy and I feel that's where we are now

Can you tell us when you did that? I went back to your first posts and from then until end of 2014 you were still talking about a bubble and how people would be crazy to buy.
How does one go about determining the top of the market? You were advising against people buying all throughout the period in the below graph, it seems you dont advise buying at the top or the bottom...


Also, did you ever buy yourself as I noted from many of your posts that you were a FTB-er back then...still renting?

Cyrus

i love monkstown, and understand the premium on properties there,

but surely this is at least 300k and more like 500k over priced

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/maryfield-albany-avenue-monkstown-co-dublin-a94-a5x6/4425003

cnocbui

I searched on Daft for 4 bedroom bungalows in Waterford and there are 5. Hmmmm.

Whoops, original post I was replying to was deleted.

GreeBo

Cyrus wrote: »

i love monkstown, and understand the premium on properties there,

but surely this is at least 300k and more like 500k over priced

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/maryfield-albany-avenue-monkstown-co-dublin-a94-a5x6/4425003

€1,850,000

I think the "1" at the start is a typo and the 8 should be a 5?

Cyrus

GreeBo wrote: »

€1,850,000

I think the "1" at the start is a typo and the 8 should be a 5?

if it was 500k id buy it in the morning :P

MrMusician18

JimmyVik wrote: »

And we have gone from thinking the social distance is going to reduce from 2m to 1m, to the possibility of it doubling.
If the second wave comes, and it is looking like it is, then things will only get worse.

The only thing that will take heat out of the Dublin market is if the tech companies start to seriously trim their staff.

Facebook VP down the road bought an 800k house, leveled it and is building a house the size of an apartment block in it's place. Serious wedge being taken home from the tech companies

GreeBo

Cyrus wrote: »

if it was 500k id buy it in the morning :P

It doesnt appear to have any garden? Actually looks like it was built in the garden of the other house?

Wouldnt float my boat at all for 550!

cnocbui

Cyrus wrote: »

i love monkstown, and understand the premium on properties there,

but surely this is at least 300k and more like 500k over priced

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/maryfield-albany-avenue-monkstown-co-dublin-a94-a5x6/4425003

Just shows you the premium you pay for location. That is asking about 4.8 times what my slightly larger one off rural house would probably fetch.

Hubertj

cnocbui wrote: »

I searched on Daft for 4 bedroom bungalows in Waterford and there are 5. Hmmmm.

Whoops, original post I was replying to was deleted.

Some people on here just love pumping out the misery... that post is still up though. Clearly Waterford has crashed already!

Cyrus

GreeBo wrote: »

It doesnt appear to have any garden? Actually looks like it was built in the garden of the other house?

Wouldnt float my boat at all for 550!

garden is to the front, if i bought it 500k id knock it and build something else, wont happy though.

id imagine anyone else buying it would want to do similar, so its going to be a 3m quid gaff by the time you are done :eek:

Villa05

GreeBo wrote:

Also, did you ever buy yourself as I noted from many of your posts that you were a FTB-er back then...still renting?

If you are so forensic you may have noticed I'm not from Dublin, and many parts of the country bottomed out long after Dublin.

awec

That Monkstown one is weird, for that money you can surely do a lot better.

combat14

Hubertj wrote: »

Some people on here just love pumping out the misery... that post is still up though. Clearly Waterford has crashed already!

https://www.waterfordlive.ie/news/property/556284/average-waterford-house-prices-drop-as-activity-resumes-in-the-market.html

The average house price in County Waterford dropped in the second quarter of 2020 by 7.8% to €219,854.

Waterford city also saw a drop of 5.5% and now the average sales price is €173,848

Cyrus

awec wrote: »

That Monkstown one is weird, for that money you can surely do a lot better.

i would have thought so, normally i can see the potential value in even the very expensive stuff but this has me stumped.

awec

Cyrus wrote: »

i would have thought so, normally i can see the potential value in even the very expensive stuff but this has me stumped.

IMO it seems so over-priced that I am wondering if I'm missing something.

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

https://www.waterfordlive.ie/news/property/556284/average-waterford-house-prices-drop-as-activity-resumes-in-the-market.html

The average house price in County Waterford dropped in the second quarter of 2020 by 7.8% to €219,854.

Waterford city also saw a drop of 5.5% and now the average sales price is €173,848

I think the prices are listing prices, not final sales price.

cnocbui

awec wrote: »

IMO it seems so over-priced that I am wondering if I'm missing something.

€1.2 M worth of neck?

GreeBo

Villa05 wrote: »

If you are so forensic you may have noticed I'm not from Dublin, and many parts of the country bottomed out long after Dublin.

Not at all forensic, just asking simple questions.
If you were more forensic yourself you might notice that the graph contains Nationwide and Dublin lines.

None of your posts caveat your opinion to excluding Dublin, are you now saying this is the case?
Perhaps its even more limited, is there a specific county or even area that you are really talking about over the last decade of "dont buy now!" advice?

Did you ever actually get on the ladder yourself? If so, when? What made you think that was the right time?

Reversal

Roberto_gas wrote: »

120 houses listed in last 10 mins or daft has been hacked ! Getting non stop notifications of new listings

Saw the same. While some actual new listings, a large number of my email alerts on Daft are new ads for properties already listed but with significant drops in asking prices. A number of them down 25K or so. This is in a "competitive" segment of the market. The latest report proves that asking prices are falling, and not slowly.

These actions from EAs are completely at odds with the anecdotes from some in here about everything apparently going over asking. Why would EAs be dropping the asking prices if everything on their books really is going over asking? Does not add up.

ebayissues

Reversal wrote: »

These actions from EAs are completely at odds with the anecdotes from some in here about everything apparently going over asking. Why would EAs be dropping the asking prices if everything on their books really is going over asking? Does not add up.

To get more bidders and probably ignite a bidding war.

Reversal

ebayissues wrote: »

To get more bidders and probably ignite a bidding war.

Which is always the goal, but clearly they have to lower the bar to achieve that affect now. If the market was roaring ahead as some on here suggest, we would not be seeing asking prices falling the way they are.

The fabled reduced supply argument is also flush down the toilet by the latest daft report. Supply for sale back to Jan/Feb 2020 levels, and close to June 2019, which was much higher than previous years.

So we hit a ceiling in 2018, prices in Dublin have gradually declined ever since. Supply has not been significantly depressed as was expected, but we are facing into a serious recession with reduced earnings and stricter lending. I wonder where this is going...

combat14

cnocbui wrote: »

I think the prices are listing prices, not final sales price.

these are average sales prices - asking prices havealready dropped 14-19% in waterford city according to daft

awec

combat14 wrote: »

these are average sales prices - asking prices havealready dropped 14-19% in waterford city according to daft

where are they getting this data?

awec

Reversal wrote: »

Saw the same. While some actual new listings, a large number of my email alerts on Daft are new ads for properties already listed but with significant drops in asking prices. A number of them down 25K or so. This is in a "competitive" segment of the market. The latest report proves that asking prices are falling, and not slowly.

These actions from EAs are completely at odds with the anecdotes from some in here about everything apparently going over asking. Why would EAs be dropping the asking prices if everything on their books really is going over asking? Does not add up.

It does? I am reading it, and seeing asking price falls of significant amounts in some types of houses in some areas, I am seeing falls of absolutely no consequence in other areas. Dublin barely moves at all, in fact the report explicitly calls out Dublin as being steady price-wise, with inconsequential changes up and down in recent times.

Nationally, asking prices are down 0.5% on average.

Reversal wrote: »

Which is always the goal, but clearly they have to lower the bar to achieve that affect now. If the market was roaring ahead as some on here suggest, we would not be seeing asking prices falling the way they are.

The fabled reduced supply argument is also flush down the toilet by the latest daft report. Supply for sale back to Jan/Feb 2020 levels, and close to June 2019, which was much higher than previous years.

So we hit a ceiling in 2018, prices in Dublin have gradually declined ever since. Supply has not been significantly depressed as was expected, but we are facing into a serious recession with reduced earnings and stricter lending. I wonder where this is going...

Are you reading a different report? The report says, in black and white, that July supply is the lowest since 2006.

On the flip side, rentals are at their highest level (in terms of available units) since 2015. Interestingly, the report calls out that rental availability in Leinster, excluding Dublin, is down 17% compared to 2019 (which I find very surprising).

I think, if you read this report objectively, it's a fairly mixed bag, with a few headline data points that make for good reading, but still coming with the enormous caveat that this is all based on asking prices. We will unfortunately have to wait for the report based on actual sales to get an idea of what really is happening, if sales are still going through at a good rate then that indicates there's still a healthy market out there.

Reversal

awec wrote: »

Are you reading a different report? The report says, in black and white, that July supply is the lowest since 2006.

On the flip side, rentals are at their highest level (in terms of available units) since 2015. Interestingly, the report calls out that rental availability in Leinster, excluding Dublin, is down 17% compared to 2019 (which I find very surprising).

Are you...

"The return to something like normal is quite clear in Setting to one side – if that is possible – the Covid-19 the left-hand panel, which shows the sale segment. There, the number of properties posted for sale during April and May was roughly one quarter of what had been posted in 2019. But in June, the number of ads recovered to just 15% fewer than in 2019 – not far off January and February, which were more than 10% below 2019 levels."

awec

Reversal wrote: »

Are you...

"The return to something like normal is quite clear in Setting to one side – if that is possible – the Covid-19 the left-hand panel, which shows the sale segment. There, the number of properties posted for sale during April and May was roughly one quarter of what had been posted in 2019. But in June, the number of ads recovered to just 15% fewer than in 2019 – not far off January and February, which were more than 10% below 2019 levels."

Yes, you are mixing up 2 different things.

The number of properties posted for sale in June was 15% fewer than in 2019. That means, the number of people who went to Daft.ie and listed their house in June was down 15% year-on-year.

But, in terms of the actual number of properties for sale (i.e. the current supply), we're at our lowest since 2006. Down 25% since July 2019.

combat14

awec wrote: »

where are they getting this data?

Latest Daft report


https://www.wlrfm.com/2020/07/08/135086/

Reversal

awec wrote: »

Yes, you are mixing up 2 different things.

The number of properties posted for sale in June was 15% fewer than in 2019. That means, the number of people who went to Daft.ie and listed their house in June was down 15% year-on-year.

But, in terms of the actual number of properties for sale (i.e. the current supply), we're at our lowest since 2006. Down 25% since July 2019.

But those June listings are highlighted in the report as a sign of return to normality of supply. The overall amount may be down still as there was nearly no listings in April or May, but the amount of new listings in June does not point to a long term suppression of supply of any significance compared to recent years.

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

these are average sales prices - asking prices havealready dropped 14-19% in waterford city according to daft

Demand must be nonexistent. With only 5 4 bedroom bungalows listed, that hardly seems like much availability.

The daft figures seem rather misleading in general. The decline seems to be heavily influenced by April, which given the very sharp upturn in May, looks like a major distortion:

Reversal

cnocbui wrote: »

Demand must be nonexistent. With only 5 4 bedroom bungalows listed, that hardly seems like much availability.

The daft figures seem rather misleading in general. The decline seems to be heavily influenced by April, which given the very sharp upturn in May, looks like a major distortion:

That image is volume of listings not prices.