Property Market 2020

lalababa

Bit of a recession on the way. Stimulus package might do something. Low stock of houses for sale and not too many desperate sellers either I'd say. Still I'd say they'd be a wee drop over next 6/12 months. After that 🀔??
Rents have and should drop a fair bit.
Used car prices should drop. Etc.

awec

combat14 wrote: »

Latest Daft report


https://www.wlrfm.com/2020/07/08/135086/

Daft report is only asking prices. Daft.ie haven't a clue what a property actually sells for.

It would be great if they did, cause they produce good regular reports, but unfortunately we'll have to wait for the one based on the PPR.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Daft report is only asking prices. Daft.ie haven't a clue what a property actually sells for.

It would be great if they did, cause they produce good regular reports, but unfortunately we'll have to wait for the one based on the PPR.

Agreed. It's kind of annoying that they don't do more analysis on asking vs sales prices - you'd think it would be fairly straightforward for them given their site publishes both.

1sttimebuyer20

A house I was previously sale agreed on has reappeared on bidx (was owned by a couple who had numerous properties and a couple of businesses, not aware of full ins and outs however it is not a repossessed family home).

16 Kerdiff Close, Naas is the address. If anyone searches boards and finds this, I would highly recommend bringing a surveyor in before the auction. No horror story to be told, but bring a surveyor.

I withdrew my offer after survey and have since decided to go for a new build

Villa05

awec wrote:

Interestingly, the report calls out that rental availability in Leinster, excluding Dublin, is down 17% compared to 2019 (which I find very surprising).

Accidental landlords spotting an opportunity of selling up?

WFH dragging tenants away from Dublin to lower cost areas?

Villa05

schmittel wrote:

Agreed. It's kind of annoying that they don't do more analysis on asking vs sales prices - you'd think it would be fairly straightforward for them given their site publishes both.

I thought they did, was looking for the methodology but can't find anything

Hubertj

So are people intentionally or mistakenly “interpreting” the report to suit their own agenda?

Either, what will really matter over next 12 months is what prices, if any, properties achieve, how many come on market, how long they are on market for, We’re they on market pre-Covid, were there price decreases pre Covid etc.

neutral guy

Hubertj wrote: »

So are people intentionally or mistakenly “interpreting” the report to suit their own agenda?

Either, what will really matter over next 12 months is what prices, if any, properties achieve, how many come on market, how long they are on market for, We’re they on market pre-Covid, were there price decreases pre Covid etc.

There is 2 parts of supply on market.First part is ammount of property supply the next part is ammount of buyers supply.When buyers does not have money you could supply property as much you like but nobody will buy it.So then you will have 2 options First put price down trying get buyers to buy or Next simply stop selling your property.When people will be unemployed nobody wil buy any property ! As far I see people arguing about how big ammount of the property will be on market but nobody does not care will be any buyers have money for it.

JamesMason

neutral guy wrote: »

There is 2 parts of supply on market.First part is ammount of property supply the next part is ammount of buyers supply.When buyers does not have money you could supply property as much you like but nobody will buy it.So then you will have 2 options First put price down trying get buyers to buy or Next simply stop selling your property.When people will be unemployed nobody wil buy any property ! As far I see people arguing about how big ammount of the property will be on market but nobody does not care will be any buyers have money for it.

Is there any recent data on mortgage approvals post CoVid? If approvals drop off a cliff surely there is your answer.

The Belly

JamesMason wrote: »

Is there any recent data on mortgage approvals post CoVid? If approvals drop off a cliff surely there is your answer.

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-May-2020.pdf

JamesMason

The Belly wrote: »

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-May-2020.pdf

Thanks again. Is this published monthly? If so, June should be interesting to say the least

The Belly

JamesMason wrote: »

Thanks again. Is this published monthly? If so, June should be interesting to say the least

Yes

https://www.bpfi.ie/publications/bpfi-mortgage-approvals-report/

neutral guy

Houses falling for sale as apples from trees during the night storm.Panic started.

Villa05

JamesMason wrote:

Is there any recent data on mortgage approvals post CoVid? If approvals drop off a cliff surely there is your answer.

What about cash sales. Will Reits be as active in a market with a great deal of uncertainty?

Dylan94

There are reports that the govt are planning on reducing the 13.5% VAT rate. If they drop it to 9% like I belive they done during the last crisis that should have a serious effect on New Build prices, which could in turn put additional pressure on 2nd hand houses.

Assetbacked

JamesMason wrote: »

Judging by the **** show in Dublin city centre last weekend don't be surprised if we see a Melbourne style lockdown in the coming weeks.

Replace "last weekend" with both "May Bank Holiday" and "June Bank Holiday" and you'll find that you are talking utter ****.

Property market, fairly obvious but eviction ban and rent freezes likely to be extended, the surprise is that as of now it is due to expire 20 July.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0708/1152140-housing-renters-evictions/

cnocbui

Dylan94 wrote: »

There are reports that the govt are planning on reducing the 13.5% VAT rate. If they drop it to 9% like I belive they done during the last crisis that should have a serious effect on New Build prices, which could in turn put additional pressure on 2nd hand houses.

... in a couple of years from now.

Iceman29

awec wrote: »

IMO it seems so over-priced that I am wondering if I'm missing something.

look at the kitchen, wouldn't be out of place in a one bed apartment

Markitron

1sttimebuyer20 wrote: »

A house I was previously sale agreed on has reappeared on bidx (was owned by a couple who had numerous properties and a couple of businesses, not aware of full ins and outs however it is not a repossessed family home).

16 Kerdiff Close, Naas is the address. If anyone searches boards and finds this, I would highly recommend bringing a surveyor in before the auction. No horror story to be told, but bring a surveyor.

I withdrew my offer after survey and have since decided to go for a new build

That place looks like it has been abandoned for a while, needs a LOT of work. Do you mind if I ask what price you agreed on for it?

shatners bassoon

A lot of the properties I've had my eye on in D7/8/9 have gone sale agreed over the last few weeks. It's going be interesting to see what they sell for.

Markitron

shatners bassoon wrote: »

A lot of the properties I've had my eye on in D7/8/9 have gone sale agreed over the last few weeks. It's going be interesting to see what they sell for.

People gonna be checking the PPR like its Livescore soon enough

Pivot Eoin

Markitron wrote: »

People gonna be checking the PPR like its Livescore soon enough

PPR Updates every Wednesday afternoon with about 200-250 Properties weekly in Dublin.

Bass Reeves

Commercial rents holding up fairly well

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0709/1152216-hibernia-reit-trading-update/

Villa05

A little blast from the past an article from 2014 questioning Government housing policy and how it might be storing up problems for the future.


I thought it would be beneficial to review policy as it continued for 6 more years after this article and how it leaves us vulnerable heading into a recession

But, there are also a rash of significant downsides to allowing a home shortage to prevail - by failing to enable/persuade banks to lend to buyers or builders, by failure to move the local authorities to more realistic planning and levy policies and by failing to persuade Nama to release land and properties to the market to enable development.
(a) Homelessness is surging, based on the accommodation shortage and resulting fast-rising rents.
(b) The construction industry's paralysis has an opportunity cost of tens of thousands of jobs in that sector attached, not to mention the tranche of spin-off jobs that a normal construction activity would support.
(c) Consumer spending is being hit and therefore, there is a risk to other jobs caused by fast-rising house prices because those who are forced to pay more in rent or for a mortgage, spend less in restaurants, pubs and shops.
(d) The fast-increasing cost of accommodation is also a major problem for FDI companies who must continue to be successful in attracting a workforce to Ireland. Accommodation affordability is high on the travelling FDI employee's list of concerns.
(e) Finally, there is the growing risk of another property price spill in the future.
This is because the accommodation shortage which is causing rapid price rises is just as artifical as the credit splash which caused the last bubble.
Cash buyers, who are still acquiring around half of the properties sold in the cities, present another "artificial" stimulant to prices while zombie banks, which won't lend to buyers and builders, are as unnatural as the cash splashing versions who showered them with unwarranted loans during the boom.......
.......Mr Noonan has said there is nothing to worry about because prices are still 47pc below peak. But such historically distorted prices are the worst tape measures.
Alternatively, an international affordability index long ago estimated that Dublin prices had moved into the "moderately unaffordable" category. The economies of Dublin, Cork, and Galway, are resurgent but they do not justify 1% to 3% per month price inflation.
Mr Noonan and his Government's policy is a double-edged sword that cuts both ways. Let's hope it doesn't swing too far in the wrong direction.

Rew

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Commercial rents holding up fairly well

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0709/1152216-hibernia-reit-trading-update/

There is no real info in there I wouldn't draw any conclusions from it.

JimmyVik

Hubertj wrote: »

So are people intentionally or mistakenly “interpreting” the report to suit their own agenda?

Either, what will really matter over next 12 months is what prices, if any, properties achieve, how many come on market, how long they are on market for, We’re they on market pre-Covid, were there price decreases pre Covid etc.

This is good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVG2OQp6jEQ

Bass Reeves

Rew wrote: »

There is no real info in there I wouldn't draw any conclusions from it.

Hibernian is a PLC. It has to give regular and true business updates. So a synopsis of it statement.

Commercial rents are 90% of it rental business 3.5% is deferred from Q2 to be paid this month and 1% is unpaid. It also stated it noticed footfall increasing back into its commercial office spaces.

On Residential properties which only make up 10% of its contracted rents it has collected 95% of rents due.

This indicates that rents are being paid at present.

Marius34

JimmyVik wrote: »

This is good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bVG2OQp6jEQ

I saw many examples how statistics are misused in this thread.

For example Financial institution builds 5 models for Property price forecast. It get 5 results for each model showing decrease of: 5%,6%,7%,8% & 15%
They would probably report that they forecast Property price decrease between 5% to 15%.
What would be expected media headline?
What we would see here on the board after read media news?

wassie

I think the point is not that statistics are being misinterpreted or deliberately used to form a persuasive argument, but rather that they feed into people's own confirmation bias to 'suit their own agenda' as HurbertJ puts it.

SozBbz

wassie wrote: »

I think the point is not that statistics are being misinterpreted or deliberately used to form a persuasive argument, but rather that they feed into people's own confirmation bias to 'suit their own agenda' as HurbertJ puts it.

Lies, damned lies and statistics :rolleyes: