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Property Market 2020

Bigmac1euro

Maybe an article for “Property Market 2020”
Anyhow looks like developers are going to start strangling supply in order to keep prices in check.

Worth a read anyway.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/developers-now-fear-flooding-market-as-house-prices-in-decline-38820967.html

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cnocbui

30% of US households missed their June mortgage payment and 32%, July's. Mortgage applications were up 33% on the same time last year. Pending home sales jumped 44.3% from April to May, the largest increase ever. Also there was a largest ever recorded surge in commercial rent delinquencies from May to June.

I predict that...umm...errr...

Rew

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Hibernian is a PLC. It has to give regular and true business updates. So a synopsis of it statement.

Commercial rents are 90% of it rental business 3.5% is deferred from Q2 to be paid this month and 1% is unpaid. It also stated it noticed footfall increasing back into its commercial office spaces.

On Residential properties which only make up 10% of its contracted rents it has collected 95% of rents due.

This indicates that rents are being paid at present.

Yeah but your reading an RTE summery of the report not the report:

https://www.hiberniareit.com/media-centre/news/news-2020/09-07-2020
https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/hibernia_reit/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=955&newsid=1401385

1% of rents went unpaid in the Mar-Jun/Q2 period and its at 5.5% so far Q3 (early days though)

Rents on payment plans: 0% Q1 to 3.5% Q2 to 7.5% Q3

0.5% has been waived already in Q3

I don't think you can draw many hard and fast conclusions yet, there is a long tail of the COVID effect and COVID isn't done yet. Uptake on new leases, exercising breaks and num of renewals will be very interesting.

Iceman29

cnocbui wrote: »

30% of US households missed their June mortgage payment and 32%, July's. Mortgage applications were up 33% on the same time last year. Pending home sales jumped 44.3% from April to May, the largest increase ever. Also there was a largest ever recorded surge in commercial rent delinquencies from May to June.

I predict that...umm...errr...

spit it out......what do you predict?

Iceman29

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/surge-in-households-getting-mortgage-and-consumer-loan-payment-breaks-39353354.html

Surge in households getting mortgage and consumer loan payment breaks

uh oh

GreeBo

Marius34 wrote: »

I saw many examples how statistics are misused in this thread.

For example Financial institution builds 5 models for Property price forecast. It get 5 results for each model showing decrease of: 5%,6%,7%,8% & 15%
They would probably report that they forecast Property price decrease between 5% to 15%.
What would be expected media headline?
What we would see here on the board after read media news?

We would see "you would be **CRAZY** to buy a house now" like we see after every post.

cnocbui

Iceman29 wrote: »

spit it out......what do you predict?

Something will happen in the property market that some people will like, but that others won't.

JimmyVik

cnocbui wrote: »

30% of US households missed their June mortgage payment and 32%, July's. Mortgage applications were up 33% on the same time last year. Pending home sales jumped 44.3% from April to May, the largest increase ever. Also there was a largest ever recorded surge in commercial rent delinquencies from May to June.

I predict that...umm...errr...

I read an article on this in June.
Something to do with holidays falling at the weekend. The following Monday or Tuesday is when all the payments go through and very few have missed them by then, even though in the reports they are down as missed. Papers looking for headlines again. And the ones that have missed them they are in the same mortgage holiday system that we have here.

If you look up wherever you got the report you'll probably find links to an explanation like that in the comments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKTMlRZnHDY

Reversal

Iceman29 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/surge-in-households-getting-mortgage-and-consumer-loan-payment-breaks-39353354.html

Surge in households getting mortgage and consumer loan payment breaks

uh oh

But wait, according to some on here the COVID shock has only affected those low income workers who were never going to buy a house anyway.

So how are so many people who already own homes unable to pay their mortgages...

Marius34

GreeBo wrote: »

We would see "you would be **CRAZY** to buy a house now" like we see after every post.

By some yes, but what I meant from the data point of view, the news headlines would be Institution X predicts property price to fall up to 15%.
The message in this thread would be: Institution X predicts 15% fall. (not 5%)

[Deleted User]

Reversal wrote: »

But wait, according to some on here the COVID shock has only affected those low income workers who were never going to buy a house anyway. ........

I think that anyone who thought that realised after a few weeks that they were wrong..........lots of folk reckoned they'd be back in the office and that schools were going to reopen in April, May or June.

People underestimated how seriously the pandemic was/is taken by government, folk mentioning that it's mainly elderly folk who were at risk etc generally have no appreciation of the amount of immuno compromised folk that are out there also.

I'd have thought more would have needed to avail of a payment break then what's reported "Close to 62,500 households have availed of a mortgage payment break, with another 52,000 consumer loan breaks granted"

cnocbui

JimmyVik wrote: »

I read an article on this in June.
Something to do with holidays falling at the weekend. The following Monday or Tuesday is when all the payments go through and very few have missed them by then, even though in the reports they are down as missed. Papers looking for headlines again. And the ones that have missed them they are in the same mortgage holiday system that we have here.

If you look up wherever you got the report you'll probably find links to an explanation like that in the comments.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RKTMlRZnHDY

That’s the fourth month in a row that a “historically high” number of households were unable to pay their housing bill on time and in full, up from 30% in June and 31% in May.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/08/32-percent-of-us-households-missed-their-july-housing-payments.html

errlloyd

5 (4 1 beds and a 2bed) apartments and a commerical unit in New Market Hall D8 just went up on Bidx1 as separate lots. All currently vacant possession.

Does anyone why that might happen? I'd probably be keen on the 2 bed at the right price. But not if the building is in some way doomed.

SozBbz

errlloyd wrote: »

5 (4 1 beds and a 2bed) apartments and a commerical unit in New Market Hall D8 just went up on Bidx1 as separate lots. All currently vacant possession.

Does anyone why that might happen? I'd probably be keen on the 2 bed at the right price. But not if the building is in some way doomed.

Could be a single landlord selling up.

I know a number of units where I have a property were sold by a single developer as a job lot last year and he definitly took less per unit than they'd have fetched individually, but then selling them for the best price (ie 1 or 2 at a time) would have taken quite alot of time.

Sarn

Reversal wrote: »

But wait, according to some on here the COVID shock has only affected those low income workers who were never going to buy a house anyway.

So how are so many people who already own homes unable to pay their mortgages...

One reason is that the criteria to purchase a house were a lot more relaxed in the past. I wonder what proportion of those already in arrears or with restructured mortgages took a break?

SozBbz

Reversal wrote: »

But wait, according to some on here the COVID shock has only affected those low income workers who were never going to buy a house anyway.

So how are so many people who already own homes unable to pay their mortgages...

Well.... as we learned in 2008, its not only people who can't pay their mortgages who will stop paying if there is no perceived penalty.

LJ12345

Unable or gaining some rainy day money just in case?

Reversal wrote: »

But wait, according to some on here the COVID shock has only affected those low income workers who were never going to buy a house anyway.

So how are so many people who already own homes unable to pay their mortgages...

JimmyVik

LJ12345 wrote: »

Unable or gaining some rainy day money just in case?

I know a couple who have only a few years left on their mortgage. Because they had to cancel their holidays this year, they took the mortgage break. They are going to use the money for a big holiday blowout next year.

Markitron

Nearly half a million quid for this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-new-ireland-road-rialto-dublin-8-d08-x7fy/4437212

I don't get how/why anyone who could actually afford that would want to live there

The Belly

Markitron wrote: »

Nearly half a million quid for this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-new-ireland-road-rialto-dublin-8-d08-x7fy/4437212

I don't get how/why anyone who could actually afford that would want to live there

needs a heap of money spent on it too

LJ12345

JimmyVik wrote: »

I know a couple who have only a few years left on their mortgage. Because they had to cancel their holidays this year, they took the mortgage break. They are going to use the money for a big holiday blowout next year.

It’s happening all over, I know people looking to extend their house and saving has just been fast tracked by a mortgage break. Another couple have used the mortgage break to very sensibly get rid of their other higher interest loans. Both are still able to pay their mortgage and will do so after the 6 months.

Claw Hammer

Markitron wrote: »

Nearly half a million quid for this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-new-ireland-road-rialto-dublin-8-d08-x7fy/4437212

I don't get how/why anyone who could actually afford that would want to live there

The only reason would be if they couldn't get better value elsewhere.

SozBbz

LJ12345 wrote: »

It’s happening all over, I know people looking to extend their house and saving has just been fast tracked by a mortgage break. Another couple have used the mortgage break to very sensibly get rid of their other higher interest loans. Both are still able to pay their mortgage and will do so after the 6 months.

I must admit, it occoured to me. I didnt do it, because mainly I'm not saving for anything in particular and I don't have other loans, but I did think to myself that this is probably a hassle free to just kick it to touch for a few months without any blowback on my credit rating, so if I'd needed it for something smart, I'd have done it. Decided against it as I'd just love to get my mortgages paid off - not that either are close, but taking a break for no real reason didnt seem smart.

I'm sure lots of people have had this same thought process.

Markitron

The Belly wrote: »

needs a heap of money spent on it too

Yea, really weird.

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The only reason would be if they couldn't get better value elsewhere.

I am no expert on the market, but if you can't get better value than that then the market is insane

SozBbz

Markitron wrote: »

Nearly half a million quid for this:

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/5-new-ireland-road-rialto-dublin-8-d08-x7fy/4437212

I don't get how/why anyone who could actually afford that would want to live there

I don't know... on the face of it, I'd agree - doesnt seem great value, but Rialto is a bit trendy these days and theres a lot of competition for houses around that price point. Its not a huge number for a professional couple.

hometruths

Iceman29 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/surge-in-households-getting-mortgage-and-consumer-loan-payment-breaks-39353354.html

Surge in households getting mortgage and consumer loan payment breaks

uh oh

Thank goodness the banks are so well capitalised now, it's not a financial crisis, nothing to see here...

combat14

Drop of 11% in Limerick house prices

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/556390/big-drop-in-limerick-house-prices-according-to-latest-daft-report.html

Markitron

SozBbz wrote: »

Rialto is a bit trendy these days

Admittedly I have only recently returned to Dublin after 5 years away, but this is news to me.

awec

combat14 wrote: »

Drop of 11% in Limerick house prices

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/556390/big-drop-in-limerick-house-prices-according-to-latest-daft-report.html

This is the same daft report that was discussed all day yesterday.

c.p.w.g.w

Iceman29 wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/surge-in-households-getting-mortgage-and-consumer-loan-payment-breaks-39353354.html

Surge in households getting mortgage and consumer loan payment breaks

uh oh

My sister was thinking of getting a break on hers, until i talked her out of it...

She's on the Wage Subsidy Scheme, Husband still working no reduction in pay...

She didn't relaize the interest would still accrue, she was thinking it would be great to take a break and use the "extra money" for a bigger holiday next year...

While i'm at home(on subsidy unsure if i'm going back within the next few months or even at all) still paying my mortgage and bills...

I really hope the banks are explaining to folks about the interest accruing, and i don't mean just telling them...Getting out a calculator and properly explaining what the break actually means

c.p.w.g.w

combat14 wrote: »

Drop of 11% in Limerick house prices

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/556390/big-drop-in-limerick-house-prices-according-to-latest-daft-report.html

Well i have seen 2 houses go sale agreed in Limerick...

Both i feel aren't worth the price they were advertised at...

About 11% & 17% above similar houses in the same area, while being in worse condition...unless its the council hat has purchased them i don't know